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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

If You Own Gold, Look Out Below / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Avi_Gilburt

It has been quite some time since I have published an article on gold. Unfortunately, we have become so busy at Elliottwavetrader that I simply have not had the time to publish many public articles.

So, as we are approaching an inflection point, I thought it would be an appropriate time to publish a public article.

Now, I have to be honest. I am quite disappointed at what I am reading publicly about gold. Many are still trying to sell you on the fact that gold is a hedge against market volatility. They suggest that you need to own gold to protect your portfolio when the stock market tanks. Well, in many past articles, I have outlined that history simply does not support this perspective.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

Crude Oil and Energy Sets Up Near Major Resistance – Breakdown Pending / Commodities / Energy Resources

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team believes Crude Oil and Energy, in general, has stalled near major resistance and maybe setting up a big downside move as the COVID-19 virus continues to roil regional and global economies. 

The recent news that the COVID-19 virus cases have skyrocketed suggests further economic shutdowns may push oil prices below $35 ppb over the next few weeks and months.  Our researchers believe Oil has already set up a resistance level near $42 and will begin to move lower as concerns about the economic recovery transition through expectations related to oil demand going forward.  We believe the renewed global economic demand for oil will present a very real possibility that oil could collapse below $35 ppb over the next 30 days.

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Commodities

Saturday, July 25, 2020

The Promise of Silver as August Approaches: Accumulation and Conversation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

In this week's advisory, sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews the most recent market news, celebrates old-school communication techniques and offers strategies for investing in the dog days of summer.

As the month of July moves into its final ten-day stretch, I see NASDAQ records falling left and right as the drivers of fear that dominated in March are now "yesterday's news." Rising second waves of infection and death have been shunted aside in favor of a reborn optimism surrounding "vaccines" and "V-shaped data" and "added stimulus" and just about anything imaginable that can drive money into stocks.

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Commodities

Friday, July 24, 2020

The Silver Bull Gateway is at Hand / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

We’ve been micro-managing silver lately in NFTRH and NFTRH+ updates and that is for a reason. The reason is that gold’s wild little bro has been rallying – in what is turning out to be 5 clear waves – since the March crash.

When that crash reversed, my view, and hence the NFTRH view was that it was likely to have been a horrifying shakeout of the silver bulls that due to its violence may well have sparked a bull market of some kind on the flush. We noted in real time that silver and precious metals mining stocks often make dramatic crash lows immediately preceding significant new rallies or bull markets. Silver was in an uptrend before the crash and that was a significant factor to a bullish view, post-crash.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, July 24, 2020

How Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how the Dow has actually outperformed silver and gold since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913.

Today, if silver had the same kind of performance as the Dow since around the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, then it would have topped out at $225.20 [(29568.6/78.78)*.6). Yet, it only topped out around $50 in 1980 and 2011.

In 1973 silver was in a similar type of position. The Dow had peaked at 1067.2 (in Jan 1973), which represented a X13.55 (1067.2/78.78) since 1913. If silver scored a similar performance, it would have had a peak of $8.128, yet its peak at that time (the beginning of 1973) was only around $2.56, which was achieved in 1968.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

China Recovered in Q2. Will the Red Dragon Sink Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

China’s economy grew 3.2 percent in Q2 2020. The expansion was above expectations, but it does not have to sink gold.

Last week, China reported that its economy grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, following a 6.8 percent contraction in the previous quarter, as the chart below shows. Importantly, the actual growth rate beat the market expectations of a 2.5 percent expansion. The number is of great importance also because China is the first major economy to report positive growth after the coronavirus pandemic and the Great Lockdown. So, the Chinese data bode well for the U.S. and other countries, where the epidemic started later.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Translating the Gold Index Signal into Gold Target / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Last week, we wrote that gold miners flashed an “extremely overbought” signal, which they had only flashed once in the past – almost right at the 2016 top. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index recently moved to the highest level that it could reach – 100.

The only other case when the index was at 100, was in mid-2016.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Thursday, July 23, 2020

Weakness in commodity prices suggests a slowing economy / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Donald_W_Dony

As the world's economic engine starts to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for certain key commodities are a good indicator of the rebound strength.

The S&P GSCI Commodity Index (Chart 1) is a collection of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors (energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products and precious metals).

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Gold and Oil: Be Aware of the "Spike" / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

"Hope and fear look different on a chart"

Recently in these pages, we noted that bull markets in stocks tend to end with "a subtly slowing ascent" rather than with a final "spike" higher, as many investors believe. Historical examples were provided.

It was also pointed out that, by contrast, commodities do tend to end major uptrends with a price spike.

The Wall Street classic book, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior, by Frost & Prechter explains why (keep in mind regarding the quote from the book that fifth waves are the final wave in the main trend of a financial market):

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Gold and gold mining stocks are entering a strong seasonal phase / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Dimitri_Speck

You may have heard that gold typically rallies seasonally from the middle of the year. This trend is driven by jewelry demand, which increases ahead of the Christmas business, the Indian wedding season and the Chinese New Year celebrations on the back of advance purchases by jewelers, which tend to put upward pressure on prices.

But what about the seasonal trend in gold stocks? Since the earnings of gold producers are highly geared to the gold price, a relationship should be discernible.

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Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Silver Eyes Key Breakout Levels as Inflation Heats Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets advanced early this week, with silver leading the way.  On Thursday, the metals sold off a bit as the U.S. dollar gained.

The major trend for the dollar, however, is down. The Dollar Index has been grinding lower since mid March, when it put in a spike high. 

Silver finally broke through $19 level with a strong close above it on Monday.  There hasn’t yet been much follow-through. Although silver has continued to close above $19, we’re not seeing a big momentum push higher.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Gold During Coronavirus Recession and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

It’s official now! On June 8, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research stated that economic activity in the United States had peaked in February 2020 (and in Q4 2019, when it comes to the peak in quarterly economic activity), marking the start of a recession. The peak also designates the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of business cycles dating back to 1854.

How did gold behave during the last U.S. economic expansion? Let’s look at the chart below. As one can see, a lot happened in the gold market during 2009-2020 period. Initially, the yellow metal rallied until 2011, doubling its price from about $900 to $1,900 in September 2011.
Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Summertime Sizzle for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Summer doldrums? Not for precious metals markets!

In early July, gold and silver each broke out to fresh multi-year highs. The yellow metal is within striking distance of new all-time highs and the headline worthy figure of $2,000/oz.

The white metal, meanwhile, has a lot of catching up to do. And as it does, the gains in percentage terms could be explosive.

Silver has already packed on 60% since its March panic-selling low. Importantly, it has shown leadership by narrowing its historically large discount to the gold price.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Saturday, July 18, 2020

Silver Demand Exploding! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver investment demand is exploding in recent months, skyrocketing higher in wildly-unprecedented fashion!  That has catapulted silver sharply higher since mid-March’s COVID-19-lockdown stock panic.  Accelerating even in this usually-weak summer season, the massive capital inflows deluging into silver show no signs of abating.  This is very bullish for silver, yet most traders remain unaware it is happening.

While silver prices are fairly-widely followed, the data revealing the underlying fundamentals driving this metal is sparse.  The best silver global supply-and-demand data is only published once a year by the venerable Silver Institute in its outstanding World Silver Surveys.  The latest covering 2019 was released in April, and is essential reading for all traders interested in silver.  One key trend is very relevant to today.

Last year global silver demand edged up an ever-so-slight 0.4% to 991.8m ounces worldwide.  Every demand category fell except for two, net physical investment and net investment in exchange-traded funds.  The former rose a respectable 12.3% to 186.1m ounces.  It makes sense investors’ interest in silver should grow with its price climbing 15.3% in 2019.  That translated into far faster growth in silver ETFs.

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Commodities

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold Rallies Together With U.S. Covid-19 Cases / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The number of cases of Covid-19 in the U.S. have been rallying very quickly in last weeks, giving way only to the gold prices, which have surpassed $1,800.

It’s not easy to terminate the viruses, especially that they are not quite alive. Indeed, the pandemic of the coronavirus is still not over, as the chart below shows. The global number of daily confirmed Covid-19 cases has surpassed 220,000 last week – and the trend is still upward.

Read full article... Read full article...

 


Commodities

Friday, July 17, 2020

Gold & Silver Measured Moves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

The next few weeks are certain to attract much attention to precious metals.  Hardly anyone can argue that Gold has not experienced an incredible upside price rally over the last 12+ months.  Recently, Gold closed above $1800 for the first time since 2011.  Our researchers believe the next target is $1935.  Keep reading to learn why we believe this is the next major price target for Gold.

Gold Weekly Price Analysis

Over the past 18+ months, Gold continues to develop price patterns that seem to be replicating going forward.  This pattern consists of an advance in price followed by consolidation/rotation in price to set up a new momentum base.  The example of this price advance from May 2019 to August 2019 consisted of a $267 upside price advance (just over 20%).  Subsequent advances were similar in size. November 2019 to March 2020 advance rose $248.  March 2020 to April 2020 advance rose $325. 

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Commodities

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Silver Is At A Critical Point Based On US Dollar Action / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Previously, I have shown how  there were virtually no significant Silver rallies over the last 50 years during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

Betting on a silver rally when the US Dollar index is in decline makes for great odds. There have been two significant Silver rallies in the last 50 years (marked out with rectangles on the chart below). During both of these, the US dollar index was in serious decline.

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Commodities

Thursday, July 16, 2020

Gold & Silver Gaining on US Dollar Weakness / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The US economy is nowhere near recovering from the lockdown measures imposed by cities and states during the covid-19 pandemic, and that is weighing on the US dollar, which has fallen sharply since March. 

The beneficiary, as expected, has been gold (and silver), which normally moves in the opposite direction as the greenback. Year to date, spot gold has risen 16% to $1,811/oz, while the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of its value against a basket of currencies, has slumped 6% to 96.60. 

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Gold Amid Epidemiological and Economical Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Sometimes when we observe people on the streets, when we see crowded restaurants and pubs, it seems like the pandemic has ended. But is the global epidemic really over? Not at all. Please look at the chart below. As one can see, the daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the world is still in an upward trend.

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Commodities

Wednesday, July 15, 2020

Is it Time To Dump Gold Stocks? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

As a contrarian and long-term holder of Goldcorp. (now Newmont), the latest push higher in the price of gold begs the question: is now the time to sell? The concern, for the uninitiated, is that after the price of gold moves powerfully higher there is an uncanny tendency for forces to mysteriously align and push prices powerfully lower. These “forces” (excuse the conspiratorial flare), have been known to short paper gold contracts in seemingly unlimited quantities, and, according to some, with the implicit backing of the Federal Reserve…

Conspiracy or not, it is obvious that the paper-traded price of gold can have an impact on the physical price of gold and/or the sentiment of those that buy and sell precious metals. After all, just as “$1,800+ gold!” attracts attention, like it did today, so too can headlines like “COMEX gold suffers historic crash!”. In other words, while record inflows into gold ETFs this year are certainly noteworthy, the informed contrarian knows that record inflows can quickly lead to record outflows.

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