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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Sunday, September 27, 2020

China Ramps Up U.S. Crude Oil Imports As Elections Near / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

China has been buying a lot of U.S. crude oil lately, perhaps in a belated attempt to fulfill some of the energy import quotas agreed with Washington last year or perhaps in a bid to take advantage of supercheap U.S. crude. But the buying spree is about to end.

This month alone, China could import between 867,000 bpd, according to Reuters' Refinitiv data, and 900,000 bpd, according to oilfield services company Canary. And then the flow of U.S. oil into China will decline, and it will decline sharply, Reuters' Clyde Russell wrote this week. The reason as simple as it is worrying. The U.S. crude that has been going into China since July—and reaching major records in terms of volume, with the July daily average alone up 139 percent on the year—was bought much earlier, in April, May, and June. This was oil bought when West Texas Intermediate was trading at multi-year lows. By June it had recovered to about $40, Russell notes, so purchases since then have been more modest.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Gold Price Setting Up Just Like Before COVID-19 Breakdown – Get Ready! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Gold rebounded quickly and broke to higher prices after the COVID deep selling.
  • Our Fibonacci support levels for Gold are resting near $1,885, $1,815 & $1,790.
  • More downside pressure on price is possible, but if support is maintained at $1,885 then we could see a big upside recovery trend take Gold to $2,250.

Just before the COVID-19 collapse in the markets hit near February 25, 2020, Gold started a double-dip move after reaching $1,692 on February 24.  First, Gold dipped from $1,692 to $1,564, then recovered to new highs ($1,704.50) on March 10, 2020.  Then, as the deeper COVID-19 selling continued, Gold prices dipped again – this time targeting a low level of $1,450.90.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 27, 2020

Gold, Dollar and Rates: A Correlated Story / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Mining production? No. China’s consumer demand? No. The main drivers of gold prices are, as I’ve repeated many times, the U.S. dollar and real interest rates. You don’t believe it? You don’t have to – just look at the charts below.

The first one displays the greenback and the dollar-denominated price of gold. Because other series start much later, I used here the Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index against major currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issuance. Although the correlation is not perfect, the inverse relationship is quite strong and bull and bear markets in gold coincide with the bear and bull trends in the U.S. dollar.
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Commodities

Friday, September 25, 2020

Precious Metals Trading Range Doing It’s Job to Confound Bulls and Bears Alike / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

The trading range on the HUI and other PM stock indexes continues its job of confusing both the bulls and bears alike. I’ve always said that trading an impulse move is much easier than trading during a consolidation phase. During a strong impulse move up it is easy to see the price action making higher highs and higher lows. Trading during a consolation phase is usually completely different.

Below is the daily chart we’ve been following for the HUI which shows the morphing triangle that has been in play since the first of August. Last week the price action made a feeble attempt to breakout above the top rail which was quickly negated when the HUI traded back inside of the triangle. Today the price action gapped below the 50 day sma and found support on the bottom rail which completed the 7th reversal point.

I added a parallel blue trendline taken from the top rail of the blue triangle if that pattern morphs into a bigger consolation pattern that could either be a bull flag or a bullish falling wedge depending where the last reversal points comes into play. I’ve also said this many times as well in the past that the 4th or last reversal point in a consolation pattern is always the hardest to spot in real time. They don’t become visible until the price action can rally far enough above the last reversal point that it finally shows itself. Whatever the consolation pattern ends up being it should still be looked at as a halfway pattern to the upside as shown by the green arrows.

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Commodities

Friday, September 25, 2020

Gold and Silver Are Still Locked and Loaded… Don't be Out of Ammo / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

In military terms, the phrase "locked and loaded" refers to "locking" a magazine or cartridge into a firearm and loading a round into the gun's chamber. A variant is to "lock the safety" and then load a magazine into the weapon.

The analogy in his essay is that from a technical (chart) standpoint, the price of gold and silver are building energy to the point that they are getting closer and closer to breaking out of a consolidation pattern and beginning the next impulse in the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

The pullback this week does not negate the outlook for higher prices in the coming weeks and months.

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Commodities

Friday, September 25, 2020

Throwing the golden baby out with the covid bath water - Gold Wins / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

The dollar is the most important unit of account for international trade, the main medium of exchange for settling international transactions, and the store of value for central banks. The Federal Reserve is the lender of last resort, as in the 2008–09 financial crisis, and is the most common currency for overseas borrowing by governments and businesses.

Investors want to own dollars when the proverbial poo hits the fan, or a wrench is thrown into the machinery of the global economy - pick your metaphor they all fit the coronavirus crisis. 

On Monday the US dollar index, DXY, soared as investors flocked to safety amid a global stock market rout resulting from rising covid-19 cases, especially in the UK and Europe.

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Commodities

Friday, September 25, 2020

Corona Strikes Back In Europe. Will It Boost Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The number of new daily infections in Europe is rapidly increasing, even reaching new heights in several countries. That is just another reminder that the second wave in fall or winter is upon us.

Yes, I know. You are all fed up reading about the coronavirus. And yet, the coronavirus is not fed up with spreading around the globe. The number of new daily infections keeps going up, as the chart below shows.
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Commodities

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Platinum And Palladium Set To Surge As Gold Breaks Higher / Commodities / Platinum

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher.
  • Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.
  • Our next upside price target for platinum is $1,410, representing a +52.4% upside price target.
  • Palladium bottom in March 2020 was near $1,357. We expect a new upside price target for Palladium near $3,663 once it has broken out past current resistance levels.

If you have been following my research for a while, you are already aware of past research posts suggesting Gold and Silver will advance in multiple upside price legs over the next 90+ days. Gold will target the $2,250 level before stalling and attempting another upside price rally targeting $2,500 or higher.  Silver will target the $33 price level when the current upside move builds enough momentum, then target $38 or higher.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 23, 2020

Key Gold Ratios to Other Markets / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Gary_Tanashian

Views of gold in relation to other markets and brief summaries thereof, with a focus on how it relates to the gold mining sector and the inflationary macro to come.

Gold/Silver Ratio

Gold/Silver is in a potential bounce pattern with RSI and MACD positive divergences. A bounce (if applicable) – which would likely come in unison with a counter-trend bounce in USD could accompany more broad  market pressure and possibly a brief whiff of deflation. As we’ve noted in NFTRH for much of 2020, silver has trounced gold and that is a bigger picture inflationary signal in the “metallic credit spread” (H/T Bob Hoye).

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Gold Price Overboughtness Risk / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has been consolidating high since early August, when it rocketed parabolic on colossal gold-ETF demand.  That 6-week-old sideways drift has worked off some greed and overboughtness, but plenty still remains.  So gold isn’t out of the woods yet for this essential sentiment-rebalancing selloff.  With residual overboughtness still extreme, gold faces considerable downside risk heading into its biggest seasonal selloff.

Across the financial markets, absolute price levels usually don’t matter much in technical and sentimental terms.  Though they are important fundamentally.  Supply and demand always converge to drive prices to sustainable levels, and over time traders come to accept them as normal.  But how fast prices surged or plunged to current prevailing levels is exceedingly important, greatly affecting their short-term staying power.

The faster prices soar, the more excited traders grow about chasing that profitable upside momentum.  As their greed flares and morphs into euphoria, they throw increasing amounts of capital at the fast-climbing prices.  But such big and aggressive buying is never sustainable for long.  Soon greed sucks in everyone interesting in buying anytime soon, exhausting their capital firepower.  The price peaks leaving only sellers.

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Commodities

Monday, September 21, 2020

Silver Bulls Will Be Handsomely Rewarded / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth outlines the reasons he believes the price of silver will continue to rise. They say patience is a virtue.

Well, if anyone is virtuous these days, it has to be silver bulls.

They also say good things come to those who wait. I believe those good things will be coming…in spades.

Silver reached just shy of $50 back in April 2011. A decade later, we're still just barely above half that level.

But that's all about to change.

Since bottoming in March, gold has rocketed to a new all-time high near $2,070 in early August, up 40%.

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Commodities

Monday, September 21, 2020

Fed Will Not Hike Rates For Years. Gold Should Like It / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The latest FOMC statement and economic projections signal are that the interest rates will stay at zero until the end of 2023. This is excellent for gold.

Yesterday, the Fed issued a statement regarding the FOMC meeting, which was held from September 15-16. The US central bank kept the interest rates and the conditions of its quantitative easing unchanged. The chart below shows the levels of effective federal funds rate and the Fed’s balance sheet.

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Commodities

Sunday, September 20, 2020

Crude Oil – A Slight Move Higher Has Not Reversed The Bearish Trend / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

At last, crude oil moved a bit higher, so you might be asking yourself if the trend has reversed or is this just a pause before the moves continue.

In short, we think the latter is much closer to the truth.

The fact remains that in a global and hyperconnected economy such as today, no market can sustain complete independence of the rest of the world. Crude oil, as the most versatile marketplace commodity, is not excluded from that reality.

Namely, the two markets that the black gold often looks up to the most are stocks and currencies. In today’s analysis, we’ll focus on the latter.

The black gold upswing has been relatively modest, and parallels with a similar pause in the USD Index. To validate this, let’s take a look at the following charts for more details.

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Commodities

Saturday, September 19, 2020

Will Lagarde and Mnuchin Push Gold Higher? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The ECB held its monetary policy stance steady. Meanwhile, the U.S. fiscal deficit reached its all-time high. What does it all mean for the gold prices?

On Thursday, the members of the Governing Council of the ECB met together to undertake monetary policy decisions. They decided to leave the interest rates and the conditions of the quantitative easing unchanged. This lack of action was widely expected, so attention shifted to the fresh economic projections and the Lagarde’s press conference. Importantly, the ECB lifted its growth forecast for 2020 from -8.7 to ‘just’ -8.0 percent. With inflation projections almost unchanged, the recent monetary policy statement sounded a little bit more hawkish than the previous one.

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Commodities

Friday, September 18, 2020

It’s Go Time for Gold Price! Next Stop $2,250 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Gold Pennant/Flag formation is now complete and setting up new momentum base near $1,925.
  • Our Adaptive Fibonacci Models suggest support will prompt new Gold rally to $2,250.
  • The rally in Gold will continue to extend higher over the next 4+ weeks. 
  • The US Dollar may move lower and/or the US stock market may break recent support to prompt this new rally in Gold.   

If you are a follower of my research, then you know I follow gold and silver closely. I believe Gold has completed a Pennant/Flag formation and has completed the Pennant Apex.  Further, a new momentum base has setup near $1,925~1,930, near the upper range of our Adaptive Fibonacci Price Modeling System’s support range.  My team and I believe the current upside price move after the Pennant Apex may be the start of a momentum base rally targeting the $2,250 level or higher.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

What Does this Valuable Gold Miners Indicator Say Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Some swear by price action, many others rely on indicators. There are actually many gold trading tips built around these techniques. Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index, is one of the rare ones that don't issue signals all that often. And it showed the highest possible overbought reading recently.

The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.

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Commodities

Wednesday, September 16, 2020

Slow Economic Recovery from CoronaVirus Unlikely to Impede Strong Demand for Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: Richard_Mills

Daily coronavirus cases may be down in the United States, but that is no reason to be complacent, especially given that cold and flu season is only a few weeks away, says the nation’s top doctor. 

In a roundtable discussion Thursday at Harvard Medical School, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned that “we need to hunker down and get through this fall and winter, because it’s not going to be easy.” He compared the pandemic to the early days of HIV in terms of how quickly it escalated, and how it might continue to escalate, if current trends of low mask-wearing and social distancing continue. “We've been through this before,” he said. “Don't ever, ever underestimate the potential of the pandemic. And don't try and look at the rosy side of things.”

On Friday Dr. Fauci went against President Trump, who in a White House news briefing Thursday told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell, “I really do believe we’re rounding the corner,” referring to new cases having declined substantially since July. 

According to data from John Hopkins University, over the past seven days the country has reported an average 35,200 cases per day, which is 12% lower than a week ago, and around half compared to 70,000 cases per day peak in late July. 

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Commodities

Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Gold Price Reaches $2,000 Amid Dollar Depreciation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

$2,000. Think about this number. Theoretically, it’s just a number, one of many. But… somehow we feel that jumping above this level was a big event in the gold market. After all, gold surpassed this psychologically important point for the first time in history, reaching record high, as the chart below shows.

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Commodities

Monday, September 14, 2020

GLD, IAU Big Gold ETF Buying MIA / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

The big gold-ETF buying that catapulted gold higher into early August has gone missing in action.  That’s why gold stalled out since, drifting sideways flirting with a correction.  To continue powering higher, gold needs these major stock-market-capital inflows via exchange-traded funds to resume.  The near-term fortunes for the precious-metals complex are heavily dependent on how American traders position in gold ETFs.

For better or worse, exchange-traded funds are increasingly dominating gold’s price trends.  Their relative importance has been mounting for years, and cannot be overstated.  Major gold ETFs are becoming the global gold market.  Despite lingering concerns about gold ETFs’ physical bullion holdings, speculators and investors keep flocking to them.  They are the easiest way to get gold portfolio exposure, quick and cheap.

The World Gold Council’s latest quarterly fundamental data on global gold supply and demand yet again revealed gold ETFs’ dominance.  The WGC’s Q2’20 Gold Demand Trends report showed global demand being gobbled up by gold ETFs like Pac-Man!  Gold surged 12.9% in Q2, which enjoyed one of the most-bullish psychological backdrops ever.  A worldwide pandemic raged, which had just spawned a stock panic.

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Commodities

Monday, September 14, 2020

Gold Price Gann Angle Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: readtheticker

Golds bullish trend has worked well in 2020, so what is next over the immediate 3 to 6 months? Will we continue to see a golden future.

The US dollar had been strong into COVID 19, since then the FED has printing a lot of money, and they are also considering YCC (Yield Curve Control), last seen during WW2. [Note YCC lasted 9 years over WW2. WOW, that is a lot of money printing.]

The FED is now forecast to over take competing central banks balance sheets in size, and the release valve will be a falling US dollar. Therefore we should continue to see the US dollar maintain is slow leak down over the next 3 to 6 month, say on the DXY 82 to 88.

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