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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Silver's Coming Double Trigger Shotgun Price Explosion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

David Smith - Even in the competitive hunting/shooting community, few enthusiasts know about an arcane rifle known as a "double trigger shotgun." Essentially, it's a double-barrel shotgun having a trigger for each barrel.

This was an early day's design with the triggers located inside the trigger guard, back to front. It was possible to press both triggers at once, causing a double discharge, though for the most part this was not a good idea – since it caused twice the recoil, and was hard on both the shotgun and the shooter – especially if not anticipated.

Though this essay is not about shotguns, but rather silver, the above concept provides a perfect analogy for what I believe is in store – a double discharge for both silver demand and price in the reasonably near future!

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

The $126 Billion Gold Opportunity in Australia / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

...

 


Commodities

Monday, October 26, 2020

Do You Own Your Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Whether you’re buying a brand new BMW or a second hand Range Rover, it’s necessary to secure clear title so you can sell or trade the vehicle in the future. If you purchase a home in The Hamptons or in the Vancouver suburbs, the title or warranty deed should ensure the property is unencumbered by a mortgage or tax lien. When acquiring gold, silver or platinum, you need documentation to prove you own the bullion and can take physical possession if desired. Without proper paperwork, you might not own the car, the mansion or the metal.
Do You Own Your Gold? | Nick BarisheffGold bars. Gold in the form of bullion.

While most people know the importance of owning an automobile or real estate outright, investors too often fail to obtain legal title to their precious metal holdings. This is an enormous and fundamental mistake. If you stash a handful of gold bars and silver coins in a home safe, you’re adequately covered, particularly if your bullion is insured with a rider to your homeowner’s policy. Possession, as it’s been said, is 9/10ths of the law. However, if your precious metals stack has outgrown your secret cellar vault, you’ll probably take the risks of self-storage into account and delegate someone else to store your bullion. In that case, it’s imperative to do your due diligence, making sure you have legal ownership of your wealth preservation stockpile.

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Commodities

Monday, October 26, 2020

The Top Gold Stock for 2021 / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Submissions

...

 


Commodities

Sunday, October 25, 2020

Three Unstoppable Forces Set to Drive Silver Prices / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

The threat of economically crippling lockdowns, the promise of unending monetary stimulus, and the uncertainty of game-changing political outcomes – this is the “new normal” for investors.

The COVID pandemic won’t be eradicated anytime soon. And even when it finally is, the economic and social costs will continue to be borne for years to come.

In such an environment, all conventional asset classes carry heightened risk. Certain types of assets, though, may now be well positioned to shine.

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Commodities

Friday, October 23, 2020

Further Gold Price Pressure as the USDX Is About to Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Gold, mining stocks, and the USD Index have not been doing much recently. However, yesterday, this “inactivity” took quite a decisive shape, and unfortunately, things are not looking good for gold.

As you are all aware, gold tends to move conversely to the USD Index. Therefore, it’s useful to focus on the latter for signs that would influence the former. So, what does the current USDX outlook look like?

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Commodities

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Silver Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Richard_Mills

Despite recent headwinds, it looks to be clear sailing going forward for silver, according to recent forecasts from three financial services firms. 

“A higher gold price, along with the ongoing recovery in industrial demand, particularly from China, means that the price of silver is likely to rise in the year ahead,” Capital Economics said in a report published on Sept. 30.

“All in all, a market deficit in conjunction with a higher gold price should lift the price of silver to $25 and $27 per ounce by end-2020 and end-2021, respectively,” assistant commodities economist Samuel Burman wrote. He added, 

“Demand for non-interest bearing safe-haven assets, such as gold and silver, should rise as real yields in the U.S. drift a little lower. We forecast that the US ten-year nominal yield will fall to 0.50%, from 0.70% currently, by the end of this year and that it will remain at this level in 2021. The Fed has already stated that it will keep policy ultra-loose until at least 2023 and allow inflation to overshoot its target.”

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Commodities

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Goldman Sachs Likes Silver; Trump Wants Even More Stimulus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Gold and silver markets slumped this week as stimulus talks faltered again in Washington.

Even though the White House upped its offer to $1.8 trillion, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused it – not wanting to give President Trump any kind of political victory ahead of the election.

Meanwhile, the President continues to campaign for stimulus. He is bucking Senate Republicans by offering to go even higher than $1.8 trillion.

Here’s what President Trump told Stuart Varney of Fox Business on Thursday:

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Commodities

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Natural Gas/UNG Stepping GAP Patterns Suggest Pending Upside Breakout / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

An upward stepping GAP pattern for UNG and Natural Gas has our research team believing a strong upside price breakout may be pending. We believe the open gap patterns, which are below the current price levels, represent a building momentum based/bottom that has setup in UNG.  This pattern, if we are correct, may prompt a big breakout move in the near future.

THREE GAPS PATTERN & MOMENTUM BASE COMPLETE – WHAT NEXT?

These GAP patterns are similar to a Japanese Candlestick pattern called “Three Gaps”.  A Three Gaps pattern is typically associated with trending and suggests an exhaustion top may be near.  It is represented by three very clear open price gaps in a defined trend (up or down), as can be seen in the chart below.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

The Copper/Gold Ratio Would Change the Macro / Commodities / Copper

By: Gary_Tanashian

The Copper/Gold ratio is saying something. That something is that a cyclical, pro-inflation and thus pro-economic reflation metal shown earlier, remaining nominally positive on a down market day has, in relation to gold, taken out two important moving averages (daily SMA 50 & SMA 200) and is currently riding the short-term EMA 20 upward. RSI and MACD are positive.

Copper: Pro-cyclical inflation, pro-reflation, pro-economy.

Gold: Counter-cyclical, monetary, with inflationary utility.

Given the right circumstances (like desperate monetary and fiscal policy), which are in play on the wider macro, gold will probably do quite well moving forward. But maybe – for a while – not as well as some commodities if the Copper/Gold ratio really is up to something positive here.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation is back. OK, not inflation, but inflation expectations. As the chart below shows, they plunged during the coronavirus crisis, but they have already recovered. Currently, and based on the inflation-protected Treasury yields, Mr. Market expects that inflation will be, on average, 1.5 percent in the next five years and 1.7 percent in the next ten years.

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Commodities

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Crude Oil Price Stalls In Resistance Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

CLEAR PRICE CHANNEL MAY PROMPT BIG BREAKOUT OR BREAKDOWN MOVE IN OIL

In this report, I discuss the recent price action in crude oil and how economic conditions and the pennant flag chart pattern is indicating a big price move is about to take place over the next few weeks.  While some of you may want a clear, bold prediction as to whether a breakout or breakdown may happen, as technical traders, our job is to predict different possible setups and identify the criteria that will tell us when to enter the trade upon confirmation. Read below to learn more.

Crude Oil has continued to retest the $41.75 to $42.00 resistance level over the past 30+ days. My research team believes this represents a very clear indication that further failure to advance above this level will prompt a moderate price decline – likely breaking below the $36.00 ppb price level.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Gold Price Trend Forecast into 2021, Is Intel Dying?, Can Trump Win 2020? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Gold price traded to a new all time high to well beyond the $2000 milestone after having held in a trading range at just below $1800 for most of the post corona crash bounce.

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Commodities

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Gold Asks Where Is The Inflation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The inflation remains low and below the Fed’s target. So, should gold bulls worry about it?

The U.S. CPI inflation rate rose by 0.2 percent in September , following a 0.4 percent increase in August. It was the smallest jump since May. The move was driven by a 6.7- percent spike in the cost of used cars and trucks, and it’s the most significant upward change over half a century. The core CPI rose 0.2 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in the preceding month.

On an annual basis, the overall CPI increased 1.4 percent (seasonally adjusted), following a 1.3 percent increase in August. The core CPI rose 1.7 percent, much like in the month prior (or a bit less if we abstract from rounding). Therefore, as the chart below shows, the period of disinflation perhaps ended, but the inflation remains low. It seems that even though the inflation rate has reached the bottom in May or June, the outbreak of high inflation in the near future is unlikely.
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Commodities

Monday, October 19, 2020

Silver is Like Gold on Steroids / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Peter Krauth explains why he believes investors should hold a position in silver.

We're still in the early innings of a precious metals bull market.

And if you're wondering whether you need to own some silver, my answer is categorically yes.

It's only a matter of degree.

With silver that's important because it acts like gold, but on steroids.

Silver can languish for extended periods, even if gold moves. But then it tends to play a rapid game of catch-up.

Timing such moves is difficult at best. Instead, it's better to build a silver position on price weakness, then simply sit patiently.

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Commodities

Monday, October 19, 2020

Countdown to Election Mediocrity: Why Gold and Silver Can Protect Your Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

With the presidential election less than a month away, sector expert Michael Ballanger offers a forecast for the gold and silver markets.

With a mere twenty-six days to the election of the "leader of the free world," of the richest, most powerful country in human history, financial markets are noticeably apprehensive as to outcome and understandably concerned with the reaction of the two deeply divided camps. With the Antifa and Black Lives Matter (BLM) "movements" mobilizing to disrupt at every turn, their ideological opponents carry little in the way of monikers but are passionately anti-BLM and anti-Antifa and even more passionately "pro-American," a descriptive often marching shoulder-to-shoulder with paramilitary and/or white supremacist groups.

The sad part of this misunderstood and misreported conflict is that the 1% elite, empowered by the politicians and the bankers that support them (the "banco-politico cartel"), would have us all believe that this conflict is the ultimate showdown between the conservative forces of law-and-order and the socialist forces of anarchy.

The stark reality is that the vast majority of the 99% that make up the unentitled non-elite, whose role has been to act as doormats upon which the 1% wipe their shoes, have finally had enough. It started with globalization, which shut down the manufacturing core of U.S. industry and shipped their jobs off to China and Mexico, and has culminated in a global pandemic that saw the politico-banco cartel once again enriching, with massive bailouts and liquidity injections, the 1%. This has resulted in all-time highs in stock prices, and wall the while the jobs of the working classes (the "doormats") were not simply transferred; they were terminated.

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Commodities

Saturday, October 17, 2020

Low US Dollar Risky for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Today’s beaten-down US dollar is a major short-term risk for gold.  For decades this yellow metal has often inversely mirrored the fortunes of the world’s reserve currency.  Dollar trends are important trading cues for highly-leveraged gold-futures speculators, who wield outsized influence over gold prices.  So an overdue mean-reversion rebound rally erupting in the US dollar will unleash serious gold selling pressure.

Gold has proven the ultimate universal global money for millennia now, and its US-dollar price American speculators and investors follow is simply these currencies’ exchange rate.  So flowing and ebbing dollar levels directly impact prevailing gold prices.  Gold generally tends to rally when the dollar weakens, then sell off when it strengthens again.  The leading dollar benchmark reveals this powerful inverse correlation.

That is the venerable US Dollar Index, which was launched way back in March 1973.  This USDX applies a weighted geometric mean to a basket of major world currencies to track the relative value of the US dollar.  The Eurozone countries’ euro, Japan’s yen, and the United Kingdom’s pound sterling dominate the USDX commanding 57.6%, 13.6%, and 11.9% of its total weighting.  Three other currencies round it out.

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Commodities

Friday, October 16, 2020

Gold Jumps above $1,900 Again / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Biden widened his lead over Trump, while gold jumped above $1,900 again.

According to the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, Biden has increased his presidential race advantage. Now, as the chart below shows, he leads by 7 percent.

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Commodities

Friday, October 16, 2020

Why You Should Focus on Growth Stocks Today / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: John_Mauldin

By Justin Spittler : My friend who’s a novice investor asked for advice recently. He was “bargain hunting” for cheap stocks, and trying to decide between buying Kohl’s (KSS) or ExxonMobil (XOM).

I cringed. “Listen,” I told him. “You’re thinking about this all wrong.”

I get where my friend is coming from. From childhood we’re taught to be financially prudent. To seek bargains and avoid spending money on expensive things.

In most areas of life this is smart advice. Drive a reasonable car, live in a reasonable house, book reasonable vacations with your family. But there’s one big problem.

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Commodities

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Is Gold Market Going Back Into the 1970s? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

They say that time travels are impossible. But we just went back to the 1960s! At least in the field of the monetary policy. And all because of a new Fed’s framework. So, please fasten your seat belts and come with me into the past and present of monetary policy – to determine the future of gold!

At the end of August 2020, the Fed has modified its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy – for the first time since its creation in 2012. As a reminder, the Fed will now target not merely a 2 percent rate of inflation, but an average inflation rate of 2 percent, which allows overshooting after the periods of undershooting. So, the Fed will try to compensate for periods of low inflation with periods of high inflation . Hence, on average , we will see a more accessible monetary policy and higher inflation - Good news for the gold bulls.

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