Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Another Day Younger and Deeper in Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: John_Mauldin
My friend Neil Howe, author of Generations, The Fourth Turning, and other books and president of Saeculum Research, joins us today in Outside the Box with a succinct, eye-opening essay on generational differences in debt levels and attitudes towards debt.
I often write about the problems that come with overindebtedness, but we’re usually talking about public debt, here in the US or abroad. But personal or household debt in America is nearly as massive as government debt, as this chart shows:
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
How to Avoid Puerto Rico's Debt Crisis and Make Money on It / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: ...
MoneyMorning.com Shah Gilani writes: Puerto Rico is desperately trying to reorganize its $72 billion debt, but it faces a unique hurdle…
You see, it's an unincorporated territory, not a state. It can't actually declare Chapter 9 bankruptcy.
Without those legal protections, the Caribbean island is clearly sunk.
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Tuesday, August 18, 2015
A Street Car Named U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Michael_Pento
sIn the 1947 Tennessee Williams play "A Streetcar Named Desire" as she is being carted off to the mental institution Blanche Dubois utters these famous words ... "I have always depended on the kindness of strangers."
And like Ms. Dubois, the United States has also come to depend on the kindness of strangers to fund a massive $18.3 trillion in debt.
But that kindness the US Treasury has come to depend upon may be waning. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell in May for a second straight month. The Treasury Department reported total holdings were down 0.1% in May to $6.13 trillion. This comes after an even bigger 0.6% decline in April.
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Fed will Cut 'Transitory' in September / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
A Russian saying goes "nothing is more permanent than temporary". At the Federal Reserve, "transitory" may mean "permanently", or could also mean "we have no clue". Oil has dropped by 57% since over the last 12 months but the +200 PhDs at the world's biggest central bank continue to describe lower energy prices as "transitory". At the June FOMC, the Fed made some progress and finally dropped its phrase from the FOMC statement that "energy prices have stabilized".
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Friday, August 14, 2015
Inside the Bank of England - Video / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Anika_Walayat
Take a journey from a unique perspective into the very heart of Britain's financial system, it's central bank, the Bank of England.
Friday, August 14, 2015
Debt Deleveraging as a Biblical Plague / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: Raul_I_Meijer
Eventful days in the middle of summer. Just as the Greek Pandora’s box appears to be closing for the holidays (but we know what happens once it’s open), and Europe’s ultra-slim remnants of democracy erode into the sunset, China moves in with a one-off but then super-cubed renminbi devaluation. And 100,000 divergent opinions get published, by experts, pundits and just about everyone else under the illusion they still know what is going on.
We’ve been watching from the sidelines for a few days, letting the first storm subside. But here’s what we think is happening. It helps to understand, and repeat, a few things:
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
China’s Doing Yellen’s Job and Creating a Trillion Dollar Profit Pivot / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: Despite what the markets seem to think and many news sources would have you believe, China’s move to devalue the yuan by 1.9% is not an act of desperation intended to prop up a failing economy. It’s not a surprise. And, it sure as heck is not the end of the financial universe as we know it.
Instead, it’s a brilliant move that singlehandedly changes the investing landscape and creates a fabulous new set of profits if you’ve got the guts and the smarts to make your move.
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Thursday, August 13, 2015
German-US Bond Yield Spread Breaks Out / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Bond yields fell across the board since mid-June, but the more meaningful fact for currency traders remains yield differentials. For EURUSD watchers, the rate of decline in 10-year bund has been slower than its US counterpart, which led to a stabilisation in the German-US spread (not US-German) to the extent of breaking above an important 3 ½ year trendline.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
Junk Bonds - The Next Financial Disaster Starts Here / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Casey_Research
By Dan Steinhart
Individual investors take note…
Some of the world’s best money managers are betting on the biggest financial disaster since 2008.
You won’t hear about this from the mainstream media. Networks like NBC or CBS don’t have a clue… just like they didn’t have a clue the US housing market would collapse in 2007.
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Wednesday, August 12, 2015
10yr Treasury Notes / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Ed_Carlson
TNX, the yield on the 10 year Treasury note, fell for the fourth week in a row with a loss of 1.36% to close at 21.75 on Friday after challenging the 30-dma earlier in the week. TNX remains in the 2015 trend channel and should find support at the lower boundary and 200-dma both which are near 21.34.
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Tuesday, August 11, 2015
Greenspan Warns Be Afraid of U.S. Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Bloomberg
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan spoke with Bloomberg's Tom Keene about the U.S. economy, bond market and Fed policy.
On how afraid we should be of bubbles, Greenspan said: "Very much so. I think we have a pending bond market bubble. If we merely substitute the structure of equity prices and we have the price of bonds and instead of expected equity return we do have expected interest rate return. That price earnings ratio is an extraordinarily unstable position."
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Monday, August 10, 2015
U.S. Dollar QE Death Sentence, Us Treasury Bond Black Hole / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Rather than stimulus, the USFed's Quantitative Easing is a death sentence for the USDollar. It might provide an ongoing backdoor bailout opportunity for Wall Street banks, and even a window for China to switch from long dated to short dated USTreasurys, but QE is death sentence. It guarantees that the USDollar will be removed from the global premises and placed in the dustbin of history. Foreign banking systems are largely devoted to USTBonds as the foundation for their entire reserves system. The African type of hyper monetary inflation blessed as good and fine stimulus is a sentinel signal by the US Federal Reserve itself, given to the Eastern producing nations who save in the $billions. They will start a caravan to exit the USDollar in their banking systems. They have great challenges in doing so, and must follow a prescribed path. That path is the Chinese RMB as an intermediary device, a transition tool. The goal is the return of the Gold Trade Standard, which will assure the return to the Gold Currency Standard and the Gold Banking Standard. The absent solution to the chronic global financial crisis has been the refusal to put Gold at the apex. Instead, the big banks have become zombies, the economies have become sclerotic, the financial structure have been control rooms, the bond platforms have been fracturing, while the USGovt has relied upon bond fraud, gold thefts, the printing press, and predatory wars to defend the King Dollar regime. It is due for the funeral pyre.
Sunday, August 09, 2015
The Unseen Consequences of Zero-Interest-Rate Policy / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: MISES
Ronald-Peter Stöferle writes: In a dynamic economy, an action not only triggers just one effect, but always an entire series of different consequences. While the cause of the first effect is easily recognizable, the other effects often occur only later and no such recognition occurs. Frédéric Bastiat described this phenomenon in 1850 in his ground-breaking essay “What Is Seen and What is Not Seen”:
Read full article... Read full article...In the economic sphere, an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them …
Friday, August 07, 2015
Fed Taper Tantrum Coming? It Won't Be Where Nearly Everyone Is Looking! The Next Tantrum / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Mike_Shedlock
Investors have been expecting another "Taper Tantrum" when the Fed starts hiking.
The term "Taper Tantrum" refers to the surge in US treasury yields (global government bond yields as well), in summer of 2013 when then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put a spotlight on the wind down of Fed asset purchases (tapering off QE).
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Treasury Positioning at Odds with Fed Interet Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Why is positioning in US 10-year treasury notes at its most bullish levels in 27 years despite several FOMC members calling for at least one rate hike this year? The latest positioning figures from the CFTC show longs exceeding shorts by 65,642 contracts, the biggest net long position since May 2013. Such growing bullishness on the 10-year treasury is consistent with the 5-week decline in bond yields, which coincided with plunging oil prices.
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Saturday, August 01, 2015
QE Fails In Japan: Inflation Nonexistent, Consumer Spending Drops, More Ease Coming / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: John_Rubino
After nearly three decades of stagnation, Japan in 2013 went all-in, ordering its central bank, the Bank of Japan, to buy pretty much every bond on the market with newly-created yen. The BoJ's balance sheet -- a rough proxy for the amount of money it has created and dumped into the economy -- soared at a rate that dwarfs, in relation to GDP, the US Fed's QE programs.
Monday, July 27, 2015
Are We Seeing a Trend Reversal with U.S. Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Submissions
Frank Suess writes: In the second quarter, we saw a jump in yields across the board. The yield of 10-Year US Treasuries jumped from 1.9% to 2.4% over the course of the quarter, representing a yield increase of 50 bps. This led to a decline of almost 2% in the Bloomberg US Treasury Bond Index. In Europe the development was much more dramatic; over the quarter, the Bloomberg German Sovereign Bond Index lost around 4.5% in value. This was due to an increase in the German 10-Year yield from 0.2% to 0.8% (60 bps). It is not completely clear what sparked the massive yield increase in Europe. It might have been a technical correction due to the very high prices bonds were trading at, increased risk aversion towards Europe due to the situation in Greece (Bill Gross even called shorting German bunds "the short of a lifetime"), or possibly aggressive short positions by some investors.
Friday, July 24, 2015
A Bond Market Crisis Is Coming... Here's What to Do / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: DailyWealth
Dr. David Eifrig writes:
Wall Street is already sending warning signals about the next financial cataclysm. Analysts are using phrases like "liquidity crunch" and "crisis situation."
It could happen next week... or next month...
Predicting exactly how a crisis will happen is difficult. Predicting exactly when is impossible.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
Not Your Father’s Inflation / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2015
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
“Profound ignorance masquerading as wisdom - all the worse from the mouths of the prestigious, the PhD, the Nobel Prize winner….” - UnknownIt’s time to revisit British economist Peter Warburton’s April 2001 classic tome “The debasement of world currency: It’s inflation but not as we know it“.
Our friend from GATA, Ed Steer brought it to attention once again.
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Friday, July 24, 2015
Misperceptions Create Significant Bond Market Value / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: John_Mauldin
In today’s Outside the Box, my good friend Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management reminds us that since the 1990-91 recession, the 30-year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 9% to 3%, a downward move nearly identical to the decline in the rate of inflation, which fell from just over 6% in 1990 to 0% today. Therefore, Lacy says, “(I)t was the backdrop of shifting inflationary circumstances that once again determined the trend in long-term Treasury bond yields.”