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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 14, 2007

US Interest Rates and Inflation - Until is Now: How Fear becomes Risk / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_Petillo

How high can the markets go I asked last week, running the risk that as soon as a signed that article, it was almost guaranteeing that the markets would fall. How precipitously was unknown. The risk that everyone knew was built into the markets months ago became fear seemingly overnight.

The bond markets, acting as the canary in the coal mine have begun to choke on its own ambivalence. Regarded as the barometer of economic strength and weakness, fixed income has remained somewhat benign as the Dow set records almost daily.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

A Pyrrhic Victory for the Fed as Long Interest Rates Rise / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

The recent sell-off in equity prices illustrates how vulnerable markets are to higher interest rates. It is my contention that the catalyst for the correction had more to do with Syria and Kuwait dropping their peg to the dollar than some epiphany from investors that the U.S. has entered into a secular trend of robust G.D.P. growth; regardless, the questions of particular saliency now are: how high will rates go? Why must they go higher at all? And does the Fed really target economic growth when it raises the Fed Funds rate?

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 11, 2007

Bank of England Governor Warns of another Interest Rate Rise / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Bank of England governor Mervyn King again warned of higher UK interest rates due to strong economic activity and continuing inflationary pressures at a CBI Event.

In his reasoning for raising UK interest rates to 5.5% in May , he stated : "The Monetary Policy Committee will be watching closely indicators of capacity pressures, pricing intentions, and inflation expectations. If these indicators remain elevated, the MPC may need to take further action. There is no simple or self-evident answer to the question of what path of interest rates will be necessary to bring inflation back to the 2% target and keep it there."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 10, 2007

Goodbye to the Good Old Days as US Bond Yields Surge / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note recorded its biggest one-day jump in years and breached the five percent level for the first time since July. Other fixed-income markets quickly followed suit, hurt not only by a nominal rise in rates but by a jump in risk spreads. One trader described the sell-off in the mortgage-backed securities market as "a good old-fashioned mortgage puke."

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 09, 2007

What’s the Deal with US Bond Yields? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Why have bond yields moved so violently upward this past week? Well, yes, some of the data last week were stronger than expected. But come on, May nonfarm payrolls increasing 157,000, getting a boost from 203,000 assumed (birth/death adjustment) workers being added to unadjusted payrolls, and coming on the heels of an 80,000 increase in April is hardly the stuff of the bond market massacre we have witnessed this week.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 09, 2007

US Interest Rate Spike and What to Do About It / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Roger_Conrad

The 10-year Treasury note yield is again more than 5 percent. And while the benchmark is off its high for the day—it reached 5.24 percent at one point—the fallout has at last reached the rest of the income investment universe.

The Dow Jones Utility Average is now down about 9.1 percent from the all-time high of about 537 that it set in late May. The typical US real estate investment trust (REIT) is down 13.5 percent, and many bond funds are showing similar carnage, particularly those with the highest duration—i.e., leverage to interest rates.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

Bonds In The Tank? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Andy_Sutton

On first glance, it might appear that this is a baseball column. Certainly, Barry Bonds has had a tough time getting decent pitches to hit out the park recently. Such has also been the case with the bond market. As of the time of this writing, the yield on the 10-year has touched 5.25% indicating a shift shift in thought. There are two sides to every story, and like most other situations the ramifications are far-reaching. 

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

What Will the Fed Make of the US Bond Market Panic? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Adrian_Ash

"...If US consumers and Washington can't borrow cheap at the long end this summer, then they'll just have to get cheap money at the short end instead..."

"POSSIBLY THE EASIEST act for any human being is to spend money which does not belong to him," wrote Robert L. Smitley in his 1933 classic, Popular Financial Delusions .

The only thing easier, in fact, is lending money that's not yours and earning a yield on the profit or loss either way. "Almost anyone will risk funds in an enterprise when the funds are not his own," Smitley went on during the Western world's last Great Depression. Hence today's bubble in all assets.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

US Interest Rates Conundrum Unwind or Glut Rewind? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Brady_Willett

The U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in 1Q07 and the U.S. housing market is, by many accounts, years away from a meaningful rebound. With this in mind, why are long-term U.S. interest rates spiking higher and why have mortgage rates risen in each of the last four weeks to rest at 10-month highs?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 08, 2007

Bond Market Massacre! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

Mike Larson, here. Two weeks ago, I issued an urgent bond market warning. I said that Treasury bond prices were falling and threatening a critical level of support. If we broke through it, I said, prices could really plunge and rates could take off like a rocket.

Well, guess what? We just sliced through that support like a hot knife through butter. Long bonds plunged by more than a point yesterday. While that may not sound like much, it was the biggest one-day percentage drop in more than 26 months!

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates on Hold at 5.50pcent / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As widely expected the Bank of England left UK interest rates on hold at 5.50%. The previous change in Bank Rate was an increase of 0.25 percentage points to 5.5% on 10 May 2007. The Market Oracle is forecasting the next rate rise to occur in August 2007 UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in...

The decision to keep rates on hold gives the bank time to evaluate new inflation data for May and June, before taking the next anticipated decision to raise rates in August or earlier if the CPI again jumps above 3%

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

The ECB Takes Another Step Toward Reining In Global Liquidity / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Today the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its policy interest rate 25 basis points to a level of 4.0%. Today's rate hike brings the cumulative increase to an even 200 basis points since the ECB started hiking its policy rate in December 2005. Comments by ECB President Trichet suggest that the ECB is not yet finished raising its policy interest rate.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

ECB Raises European Interest Rates to 4% / Interest-Rates / ECB Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

As widely expected the European Central Bank today raised its key benchmark rate by 0.25% to 4% on the back of a strengthening Euro zone economy. This marks the eighth rise since December 2005.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

US T-Bond Yield Hits Resistance, A potential problem for the Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Marty_Chenard

In case nobody is watching, the 30 Year Bond Yield is about to test its 8 year resistance for the second time. This is something to keep a close eye on, because 30 year yields and mortgage rates go hand in hand. See the long term chart below.

The concern is that home building is in a slump and many are speculating that we might be at a bottom ... ready to turn around. If the 30 year yield jumps up, then that would effect how large a home someone could afford, and it would mean that home sellers would get less for their homes in the longer term ... and fewer homes would sell.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 05, 2007

UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Banks minutes and inflation report, and recent comments by the bank governer Mervyn King, all point towards to a further rise to 5.75%. The question is will interest rates rise this week ?

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 25, 2007

Tremors in the US Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Money_and_Markets

I've had plenty to talk about in recent weeks — underperforming REITs … the ongoing problems in housing … risky commercial real estate financing … private equity firms gone wild … overseas profit opportunities. These are truly interesting times in many markets.

But there's been one thing I haven't talked about — interest rates. The reason? They haven't been going anywhere. You ever see one of those EKG machine readouts? That's what the chart of 10-year Treasury Note yields has looked like since last August.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, May 20, 2007

Eau de Liquidity and the consequences of the spectacular boom in securitized lending / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble

By: Michael_J_Panzner

Recent news reports highlight the difficulties some troubled borrowers are facing when trying to renegotiate payment and other terms with lenders. In many instances, the problems stem from the fact that the loans have been sliced, diced, and repackaged into mortgage-backed securities, which have then been sold to investors in the U.S. and around the world.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, May 19, 2007

People's Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other? / Interest-Rates / China Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced today that it was raising the required reserve ratio on its constituent banks by 0.5 percentage points to 11.5%. This would be the eighth increase in the required reserve ratio since June 2006 when the ratio was 7.5%. You would think that with the PBOC mandating that banks now hold more reserves, the cost of reserve credit would be moving up. Think again. Chart 1 shows that the Chinese overnight interbank interest rate, the equivalent of the U.S. fed funds rate, stood at 1.57% in March (latest data that I have available) - 12 basis points lower than where it was in June 2006, before the required reserve ratio started its ascent.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Inflation report confirms further rise in UK Interest rates to 5.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Nadeem_Walayat

With the publication of the quarterly inflation report, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King confirmed that a further rise in interest rates to 5.75% is likely to occur later this summer, in an attempt to bring inflation back under control. He stated "The path of interest rates assumed in this projection anticipates a further rise in the bank rate,"

The inflation report confirmed that a rise in interest rates to 5.75% is required to meet the CPI target of 2% in two years time .

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Interest-Rates

Friday, May 11, 2007

FOMC - The Prospects for the US Interest Rates and the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

The Fed's Open Market Committee yesterday repeated its assessment from March 21st that persistent inflation remains the predominant policy concern. Interest rates were held at 5.25%. The Fed has just said, "inflation is a predominant risk" but did not raise interest rates, and indicated that it is not likely to do so, as it pointed to lower growth and the ongoing housing price problems.

The impression given is that it will react to higher inflation but will not pre-empt it. The dangers of inflation with falling growth [stagflation] are now apparent. This is gold positive and $ negative as the Trade deficit will continue at excessive levels in a climate that could discourage the investment of surplus $ [Asian nations in particular] back into the States.

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