Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, March 14, 2011
The Exponentiality of Municipal Costs (and Some Advice for Endowments and Foundations) / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Fred_Sheehan
The word in social media is "exponentiality" of growth. Webster's, American Heritage, and Microsoft Word do not acknowledge it, I don't know how to spell it, but this path-breaking discussion of rising municipal costs deserves a word from the future.
The pension costs of states and municipalities in years hence are often stated in a calculation of future liabilities. For instance, the future obligations of state and municipal pension funds are calculated (in frequently cited studies) at between $1.5 trillion to $3.5 trillion.
Monday, March 14, 2011
U.S. Debt and Deficits Ensure Violent Dollar Sell-Off Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: LewRockwell
David Stockman writes: The Triumph of Crony Capitalism occurred on October 3rd 2008. The event was the enactment of TARP – the single greatest economic policy abomination since the 1930s or perhaps ever.
Like most other quantum leaps in statist intervention, the Wall Street bailout was justified as a last resort exercise in breaking the rules to save the system. In the immortal words of George W. Bush, our most economically befuddled President since FDR, "I’ve abandoned free market principles in order to save the free market system."
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Saturday, March 12, 2011
It May Be Time To Buy U.S. Treasury Bonds Again! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Sy_Harding
Slowing economic growth is usually a positive for bonds.
Bonds are bought as a safe haven when global stock markets are in corrections.
Friday, March 11, 2011
The Probability of More Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Richard_Daughty
It would be an understatement to say that I was flabbergasted to see that the monetary base jumped $130 billion dollars in two weeks!
Well, using an exclamation point as punctuation seems to confirm my suspicions that I was, indeed, flabbergasted, as the term seems, somehow, appropriate since I felt something more than the usual crushing pains in my chest, numbness running down my left arm, my guts heaving and sphincters tightening kind of reaction I get when I see horrifying, huge increases in money and credit created by the damnable Federal Reserve.
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Friday, March 11, 2011
ECB Stuck in Sovereign Debt Garbage, Germany Sets High Price for Bailout Changes on Greence and Ireland / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Mike_Shedlock
Leaders of 17 eurozone countries meet on Friday in Brussels to discuss the sovereign debt crisis and the stabilization pact, but don't expect much of anything to come from it. Instead, expect to see a lot of bickering interspersed with agreements to agree on non-critical issues.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Pimco Dumps All U.S. Treasury Bonds, Six Reasons Why They Got it Wrong / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Pimco's Bill Gross has been dumping US government debt in favor of other alternatives including emerging-market opportunities. Looking ahead, I think it's more likely to be a bullish setup for treasuries than not.
First, please consider the news.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Bank of England Interest Rate Indecision, UK Rates Held at 0.5% for 2 Years / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Bank of England again decided to do nothing by keeping the UK base interest rate on hold at 0.5% for now 2 full years whilst the inflation fires are burning out of control, rapidly consuming the purchasing power of workers and life time accumulated value of savings. The Bank of England exists purely to service the interest of the bankster elite as evidenced by the fact it funnels cash to the banks at 0.5% to buy government bonds at 3.5% (on leverage) and thus make an instant profit of 60%, whilst the clueless in the mainstream press continue to wonder why the Banks are not lending, they are not lending because they are making risk free profits due artificially held low interest rates, a normalised base interest rate should be north of RPI (5.1%).
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Banks Face Renewed Headwinds / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Tony_Pallotta
In the fall of 2010, there was no shortage of news regarding faulty foreclosure processes, aka "robo-signing." Bank stocks took a hit and the threat of a nationwide foreclosure moratorium appeared imminent. Then came the concept of put back risk to the big banks claiming violations of reps and warranty agreements or pooling and servicing agreements (PSAs). Since that time the media has gone rather quiet on the subject and the price action in the bank stocks would imply all is well. BAC settled for pennies on the dollar with one of the GSEs and the stock rocketed that very day as investors were no longer "worried about the uncertainty."
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Thursday, March 10, 2011
That Ticking Sound You Hear is the U.S. Bond Market.... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
Many investors are afraid of inflation because they understand the run-up in prices will take a big bite out of their wallets - and their buying power.
While that's a valid concern, I'm much more worried about one of the other possible fallout effects of the expected inflationary surge - the potential for the worst global bond rout in nearly 20 years.
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Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Q.E. Money Printing Negative Feed Back Loop to Hyper-Inflation Oblivion / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
USFed Chairman Bernanke and the Quantitative Easing programs are caught in a negative feedback loop, the instruments at risk being the USDollar and the USTreasury Bond. The former suffers from lost integrity and direct inflation effect. The latter suffers from direct intervention and market ruin. The next QE round is guaranteed by the failure of the previous program in an endless cycle to be recognized later this year. Leaders are confused why the recovery does not take root. It is because the entire system is insolvent, and the 0% rate assures total capital destruction, not to mention the big US banks are sacred, never to be liquidated, a primary condition for recovery. Liquidation is tantamount to abdication of power of the Purse and control of the Printing Pre$$, never to happen. The greatest hidden damage is psychological, where the USDollar and its erstwhile trusted USTreasury Bond are no longer viewed as the safe haven.
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
U.S. Treasury Bond 10 Year Index Elliott Wave Analysis / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: David_Petch
The daily chart of the 10 Year US Treasury Index is shown below, with upper and lower Bollinger bands in close proximity to the current price. Full stochastics 1, 2 and 3 are shown below in order of descent, with the %K beneath the %D in all three instances. I illustrated the short-term Elliott Wave count, which clearly indicates a change of trend. This is a real trend definer, because gold does well with rising interest rates (not year over year inflation).
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
Dallas Fed President Fisher Could Dissent if Crude Oil Prices Maintain Upward Trend / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Asha_Bangalore
Dallas Fed President Fisher indicated yesterday that he would vote to scale back or discontinue the Fed's Treasury securities buying program of $600 billion at the March 15 FOMC meeting. Last week, Chairman Bernanke has indicated that only under conditions of strong sustained growth, expanding payrolls, and inflation readings that are consistent with price stability would the Fed consider terminating the program. Current economic data indicate that the Fed is not even close to meeting these targets.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
How to Cash in on the Next Big Trend in Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes: There have now been three successful issues by banks in Europe of a new type of investment - the contingent convertible (CoCo).
Since each CoCo issue was for several billion dollars, and European banking authorities want banks to carry a lot of their capital in this form, we should expect issues over here pretty soon. Those who know my cynical attitude towards banking innovation will be surprised to hear me say this, but actually they're a good idea for banks.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011
How Much of QE2 Has Been Implemented? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Asha_Bangalore
A1. The Fed announced the implementation of QE2 (quantitative easing, the second round) on November 10, 2010, which involves purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities from the private sector. As of this writing, roughly $404 billion of Treasury securities have been purchased. The rest of the planned purchase of Treasury securities (33% of $600 billion) is scheduled to be completed by June 2011. Purchases of Treasury securities, as expected, have led to an increase in the size of the Fed's balance sheet (see Chart 1) to $2.5 trillion.
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011 - Conclusion and Implications - Part 2 / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This analysis continues from Part 1 Here
Bank of England Remains Paralysed By Fear of Financial Armageddon
Since August 2007 when the credit crisis first broke the Bank of England has been in near perpetual state of panic, always opting to do nothing rather than something. For instance during 2008 the Bank of England should have been cutting interest rates but instead it kept them on hold at 5% as it remained paralysed by the fear of inflation right up until the world peered over the abyss at financial armageddon.
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Tuesday, March 08, 2011
UK Interest Rate Forecast 2011, Paralysed Bank of England Still Fears Financial Armageddon / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's coalition government pressed the reset button on the UK Economy during summer 2010, as it has continued to make a plethora of tax raising and spending cut economic austerity announcements over the past 9 months in an attempt to get a grip on the Labour government's legacy of an out of control annual budget deficit of over £150 billion per year that risked bankrupting Britain.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, March 07, 2011
What's Wrong with Government Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Robert_Murphy
The news abounds with arguments and even riots over so-called austerity measures. Whether in the Middle East, Europe, or even certain US states, the public is realizing just how deep a hole various governments have dug for themselves. In this article I'll outline Uncle Sam's position and then explain why it's such a problem.
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Friday, March 04, 2011
Fed Emperor Nakedly Monetizing Debt, Desperately Seeking Stability / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jesse
The Fed is monetizing debt, colloquially known as 'printing money.'
Friday, March 04, 2011
Fed and ECB - A World Apart / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Axel_Merk
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are divided by a common goal: price stability. Fed Chairman Bernanke has made it clear in his recent testimony and speeches that the Fed would react should food and commodity inflation lead to an increase in core inflation. Let's spell this out: the Fed is ready to R E A C T. We are not aware of any central bank that is proud of reacting, but rather acting preemptively to mitigate inflationary concerns; naturally, a central bank may often be forced to react, but to do so by design puts the cynical view that central bankers are too far behind the curve into a new light.
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Friday, March 04, 2011
Trading the U.S. Treasury Bond Market With Success / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: readtheticker
If you are an avid reader of financial articles, you will have seen many stock charts with all types of technical analysis drawn upon it. You name it, you're seen it, trend lines, moving averages, oscillators, Elliot wave counts, etc. Yet you fail to see a simple technique that assisted a young trader to make millions.