Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
U.S. Treasury Bonds Bear Market Underway? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Tony_Caldaro
We believe the multi-decade Bond bull market is coming to an end. We have been tracking the typical choppy action in long, and short, term rates for a number of years now. While many turned bearish on Bonds in 2010 and 2011, we remained bullish for two specific reasons. First, the 30 year Bond rate had not made a new bear market low. Second, the declining phase of the 68 year Bond cycle had not displayed any signs of bottoming. Recently this has changed.
Sunday, July 01, 2012
If Bank of England Approved LIBOR Rate Manipulation, Will Mervyn King Resign? / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Bankster's, such as Bob Diamond have just started to play their Ace card that they have held close to their chests for near 4 years now. That Ace card alledges that the Bank of England gave a nod and a wink to manipulate the LIBOR interest rates lower on several occasions during credit crisis extremes when the interbank lending market had effectively frozen.
Friday, June 29, 2012
Global Debt Crisis 101 / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
By: Richard_Mills
Our financial predicament explained, from reszatonline.wordpress.com
Helga is the proprietor of a bar. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with a new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, pay later.
Helga keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers' loans).
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Thursday, June 28, 2012
When Zero Interest Rates Don't Work / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Fred_Sheehan
Jon Hilsenrath, the Wall Street Journal's ferret at the Fed, reports what the Federal Reserve wants the public to know while retaining anonymity. He found the professors in a stew. In the June 19, 2012, edition, Hilsenrath disclosed: "Fed officials have been frustrated in the past year that low interest rate policies haven't reached enough Americans to spur stronger growth, the way economics textbooks say low rates should. By reducing interest rates-the cost of credit-the Fed encourages household spending, business investment and hiring, in addition to reducing the burden of past debts. But the economy hasn't been working according to script."
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Financial Collapse End Game, Operation Twist Deception, Infinite QE / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Many are the events, signals, and telltale clues of a real live actual systemic failure in progress. Until the last several months, such banter was dismissed by the soldiers in the financial arena. But lately, they cannot dismiss the onslaught of evidence, a veritable plethora of ugly symptoms of conditions gone terribly wrong and solutions at best gone awry and at worst never intended in the first place. My theory has been steady from the TARP Fund scandal and the Too Big To Fail mantra of deceit. The plan all along since the breakdown began in September 2008 has been to preserve power, to maintain intact the insolvent banks an operational crew of zombies, to aid the financial sector bound in Wall Street, to pay benign neglect to Main Street and businesses (expect for symbols like General Motors), to expand the propaganda of a fictional recovery, and to maintain the endless wars. The wars serve two purposes, to enable significant fraud from overcharged services, and to hold open the gateways for sizeable money laundering flows into the Wall Street banks, those hollow structures that closely resemble a coke addict with dark teeth, wretched bones, wasted organs, lost attention, and a listless gait. The Greek showcase is coming to a neighborhood near you in Western Europe and Great Britain, soon to feature debuts across North America. No, the United States is not immune from the horrors of ruin since its marquee billboards read Zero Percent. It only means the wrecking ball works from the inside out, serving as the central needle in the Black Hole. An outline of the End Game can be written. This article is not comprehensive by any means. But it serves as a decent posting on an outhouse wall. Consider the following as musings in observation of Uncle Sam on death row. They bear no logical flow, just random concepts.
Tuesday, June 26, 2012
Eurozone Debt Crisis, What Will Germany Do? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
This week all eyes are on Germany, and the question is "What will Germany do?" We are going to look at four quite-short essays. Two are from GaveKal, one is from Dennis Gartman, and the last is from Kiron Sarkar – all on this very topic.
One of the reasons I really like to read the research from GaveKal is that they are very public when their analysts disagree, and you get to listen to the back and forth. Some of the best analysis I see is when Charles and Louis Gave (father and son) and Anatole Kaletsky do email battle with each other while they are on three different continents. This time it is Anatole and one of their analysts, Francois Chauchat (whom I have not had the pleasure of meeting), differing on whether Germany should (or even can!) leave the eurozone.
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Sunday, June 24, 2012
Elliott Wave Analysis of U.S. Treasury 30 Year Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: WavePatternTraders
Having finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year).
Bonds have come roaring back to burn the bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years.
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Saturday, June 23, 2012
Germany Could Pull Out of the Euro Before Spain is Even “Saved” / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
As I’ve assessed in earlier pieces, neither the Fed, nor the IMF, nor the EFSF, nor the ECB has the firepower or the political backing to prop up Spain or the EU.
This ultimately leaves the ESM, the permanent European Stability Mechanism… which technically doesn’t even exist yet (it’s supposed to be ratified by July 2012).
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Friday, June 22, 2012
How America Screwed Europe And Why The Road To Recovery Lies in Securitization / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2012
By: Andrew_Butter
The Dutch call it, “Doing-an-English”. That’s when someone takes a liberty real soft and sweet and so-so-polite you hardly even noticed…until you find out you’re pregnant, or worse.
Looks like the Europeans finally noticed. Jose Manuel Barroso’s news at the G-20 summit was… "This crisis was not originated in Europe".
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Friday, June 22, 2012
Spain's Banks Cook the Books as House Prices Crash Accelerates / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The results of the "independent" Spanish bank stress test by Oliver Wyman Ltd, just out, indicate that the banks will need €62 billion ($78 billion) in a worst case scenario (a 6.5% GDP shrinkage and a 60% home price plunge). Since €100 billion was the number the EU said would go towards the bank bailout announced last week, what's the problem, right?
Well, there are plenty. In a nice aside, the Bank of Spain reported a few days a go that its own stress test won't be published until September, because too much bank staff will be on holiday this summer(!) to do it sooner. Not much of a sense of urgency there, more like going to the beach when your house is on fire. And that might not work out well.
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Thursday, June 21, 2012
European Debt Crisis "Imagine the Worst and then Double It" / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: EWI
We've all heard the line: Let me give it to you straight.
And in speaking to his counterparts in Spain, an Irish economist did just that.
Read full article... Read full article...Ireland has this banking advice for Spain: imagine the worst and double it. [emphasis added]
Thursday, June 21, 2012
U.S. More Soft Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Ian_R_Campbell
Why Read: To get beyond newspaper reporting to a 'what it may mean discussion'.
Featured Article: Shortly after noon Eastern Time yesterday, multiple articles and other media coverage began of the U.S. Federal Reserve announcement that:
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Eurozone Debt Crisis is Far From Over / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Dr. Kent Moors writes:
The Greek election last weekend has brought us a brief reprieve. The nation and the Eurozone have stepped back from the brink.
But the larger truth is that little has changed.
Yes, the Eurozone has survived its latest test, yet there is little indication where it will go from here. Considerable continental support for the common currency remains, and EU officials will soon introduce initiatives to consolidate banking and financial policy in the European Union.
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Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Tinker Bell Is Dead, It's Why Bankonomics Won't Work in Europe or US / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012
By: Gary_North
If you have seen the stage version of Peter Pan, you know the scene in which the audience is asked to clap if they want Tinker Bell to live. It's time.
Janet Daley wrote a provocative essay in London's The Telegraph on the day before the Greek election (June 16). She did her best to explain why the eurozone is in crisis. Europe's leaders are living in an illusion of their own making.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2012
Spain and the Western Financial System on the Brink / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Mario_Innecco
This weekend the world kept a close eye on the Greek parliamentary elections and the big worry, from a EU establishment perspective, was that the a victory by the Coalition of the Radical Left or SYRIZA would result in market turmoil today. SYRIZA, under the leadership of Alexis Tsipras, did not win and the New Democracy party triumphed and as a result Greece is now expected to stay the course as far as the EU bailout plan is concerned. So this should have been great news for the markets right? Europe could now move ahead and sort its sovereign debt crisis out.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
The Eurozone Bailouts Question No Ones Asking / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Graham_Summers
While everyone else is focusing on the Greek elections, the REAL issues pertaining to the EU (namely where the funding for Spain’s bailout as well as future bailouts will come from) continues to be ignored.
Indeed, no one seems to be asking THE key question regarding the EU: Just WHERE is the money for this bailout going to come from?
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Monday, June 18, 2012
PIMCO's Gross: Germany is a Credit Risk, Not an Attractive Market / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Bloomberg
Bill Gross of PIMCO spoke to Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle on Bloomberg TV's "Market Makers" today and said, "I would be leery of German bunds simply because there are only a few scenarios in which they can do well...Germany for me is a credit risk. It's not an attractive market."
Gross went on to say that Spanish bonds are "not a safe environment," and right now, the U.S. and U.K. are the "cleanest dirty shirts."
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Monday, June 18, 2012
1930s: Europe Back To The Future? / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: DK_Matai
The fateful day of elections in Greece on 17th June has now arrived. The impact of this Greek ballot will be felt around the world. Beware the rise of political extremism. More than two thousand years ago, Plato -- the influential Greek philosopher -- said, “Dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy, and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty.” Europe's fast-escalating crisis is now more dangerous than Lehman's collapse in 2008, threatening to tip the world into a 1930s-style Second Great Depression unless global leaders work together to take dramatic action.
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Monday, June 18, 2012
Eurozone Debt Crisis Bang! Moment is Here / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
"Perhaps more than anything else, failure to recognize the precariousness and fickleness of confidence – especially in cases in which large short-term debts need to be rolled over continuously – is the key factor that gives rise to the this-time-is-different syndrome. Highly indebted governments, banks, or corporations can seem to be merrily rolling along for an extended period, when bang – confidence collapses, lenders disappear, and a crisis hits.
Monday, June 18, 2012
Euro-zone Insolvency Call to Arms for Central Banks / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis
By: Alasdair_Macleod
The rate at which the majority of the eurozone is descending into insolvency is accelerating. The rescue package for Spanish banks, which appears to have been provisionally set at a figure designed to impress the markets, hardly even produced a dead-cat bounce. All it has achieved is to draw attention yet again to the helplessness of the authorities in dealing with multiple debt-traps. So what is the answer?
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