Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.How U.S. Dollar Destruction Threatens the Global Economy - Steve Forbes
2.Why UK House Prices Will Continue Rising - 'It's Immigration Stupid' - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin Price at Beginning of a Move up? - Mike_McAra
4.Gold Price to Plunge, Visiting Fort Knox - David_Hague
5.Silver Price Forecast - Metal to Gain Ground in August on These Factors - Jim Bach
6.Gold And Silver Will Rise With US Dollar Demise, Just Not Soon - Michael_Noonan
7.Bitcoin Price Strong Move Possible - Mike_McAra
8.Israel Gaza War Crimes - Soldier's Ordered to Shoot Civilians Including Children - C4News - C4News
9.UK House Prices Crash Warning - Daily Mail Cognitive Dissonance - Nadeem_Walayat
10.UK House Prices Boom - Top Quick Cheap Tips to Help Sell Your Home - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Peak Gold? Russia To Surpass Australia As World No 2 Gold Producer - 20th Aug 14
AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs - 20th Aug 14
Stock Market Investors What's Your Exit? - 20th Aug 14
The Gold War - Thinker, Trader, Holder, Why? - 20th Aug 14
Ukraine Interest Rates Soars to 17.5% As External Debt Cannot be Repaid - 20th Aug 14
Rising Interest Rates and The End of Stimuland - 20th Aug 14
Inflation Watch: $245,000 to Raise a Child in United States - 20th Aug 14
Inside the Stunning Deal That Put Apple and IBM on the Same Side - 20th Aug 14
The US Gold in Fort Knox is Secure, Gone, or Irrelevant? - 19th Aug 14
Bitcoin Price On The Brink of a Possible Reversal - 19th Aug 14
Why Tesla Stock Price Will Double in the Next 12 Months - 19th Aug 14
Europe's Economic Malaise: The New Normal? - 19th Aug 14
The Coming U.S. Economic Collapse Will Trigger a Revolution - 19th Aug 14
Market Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere - 19th Aug 14
This is Your Economic Recovery With and Without Drugs - 19th Aug 14
Stock Market Strong Start to Jackson Hole Week - 19th Aug 14
Iraq, Ukraine - Oh, What A Tangled Mess We Weave - 19th Aug 14
How to Apply Moving Averages as a Trading Tool - Video - 18th Aug 14
Why Short Stock Traders Are Losing Money This Week - 18th Aug 14
Stock Market Rally May be Complete - 18th Aug 14
Why Chinese Citizens Invest In Gold - 18th Aug 14
Palladium Reaches 13-Year High Over $900 oz as Gold Trading Volumes Surge 66% - 18th Aug 14
Understand and Profit from Surging European Volatility - 18th Aug 14
No Escape from The Dollar as The Currency Standard - 18th Aug 14
Stock Market New Highs Less Certain - 18th Aug 14
German Stock Market DAX About To Drop - 18th Aug 14
Stay on Board - Stock Market Big Picture - 18th Aug 14
Europe Economy Is Tanking, QE Is Coming - 18th Aug 14
Are You Ready for The Greatest Technology Revolution Yet? - 17th Aug 14
Why King Coal is Bigger than Oil or Gas - 17th Aug 14
U.S. Empire of Death and Lies - 17th Aug 14
Ukraine - Whose Spin Are We Caught Up In Here? - 17th Aug 14
Time Decay And No Escape For Abenomics - 17th Aug 14
India BSE SENSEX The Party Is Over In Bombay - 17th Aug 14
Stock Market Uptrend Looks Underway - 17th Aug 14
The Key Role Of Conspiracy Theory In Dumbing Down Society - 17th Aug 14
The Federal Reserve in Denial Mode - Bond Market Explained - 17th Aug 14
Stock Market Ukraine-Triggered Volatility, But a Flat Finish - 16th Aug 14
Stock Market Investors Conditioned To Catch The Falling Knife - 16th Aug 14
Decline And Fall Of The CO2 Crisis - 16th Aug 14
Gold Stocks Major New Upleg - 15th Aug 14
Don’t Assume What Is “Unseen” Doesn’t Exist - 15th Aug 14
HUI, Gold and Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts - 15th Aug 14
Cry for Argentina: Fiscal Mismanagement or Pillage? - 15th Aug 14
New 'LBMA Silver Price' - Still Not Transparent - 15th Aug 14
America the Neighborhood Bully Recklessly Throws its Weight Around - 15th Aug 14
The Single Best Investment for the Semiconductor Tek Stock Boom - 15th Aug 14
The Something For Nothing Society - Inflation and Getting Paid NOT to Work - 15th Aug 14
Forecasting Ability of the Elliott Wave Principle - Trader Education - 15th Aug 14
The Most Hated Stocks Bull Market - 15th Aug 14 - Puru_Saxena
America's First Oil Sands Producer and Other Natural Resources Surprises - 15th Aug 14
Life and Times in Propagandistan - 15th Aug 14
The Biggest Lesson from Microsoft’s Recent Battle with the US Government - 15th Aug 14
Russian Bear Rattles Stock Markets, but Plunge Protection Team Rides to the Rescue - 14th Aug 14
Back In Iraq: We Only Want To Save You - 14th Aug 14
Learn How to Spot High Confidence Chart Trade Setups for FREE! - 14th Aug 14
More Bad News is Good News for the Stocks Bulls - 14th Aug 14
If Mr. Rogers Ruled Wall Street - 14th Aug 14
Government Spending and Negative Interest Rates - 14th Aug 14
Gold, Silver, Dow and VIX Market Updates - 14th Aug 14
Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths - 14th Aug 14
Gold and Silver Miners that Can Make Money Now - 14th Aug 14
Low and Expanding Risk Premiums Are the Root of Abrupt Stock Market Losses - 13th Aug 14
Stock Market at the Precipice - 13th Aug 14
When Gold Miners Have Already Rallied – Will Metals Follow? - 13th Aug 14
Oil Market QE Premium Is Coming out of Price - 13th Aug 14
Putin is Winning the New Cold War - 13th Aug 14
No Silver Money For Mexico, But Perhaps Gold For Eurasia - 13th Aug 14 -
Japan Economic Collapse - GDP Plunges by 6.8%! - 13th Aug 14
Confusion To New “London Silver Price” Launch This Friday - 13th Aug 14
Interest Rate Policy Global Divergence - Really? - 13th Aug 14
Stock Market Two-Day Rally Ends with a Small Loss - 13th Aug 14
Resources Stocks Where to Stash Your Money When Europe Heats Up? - 13th Aug 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

The Biggest lie in Stock Market History Revealed

Global Uncoordinated Bond Market Panic ...

Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis 2012 Jul 05, 2012 - 10:15 AM GMT

By: Mike_Shedlock

Interest-Rates Best Financial Markets Analysis Article... ECB Cuts Rates to Record Low, Deposit Rate to Zero; Bond Market Response Was 'Not Enough'; Words 'Heightened Uncertainty' Explained

Global Uncoordinated Panic

In a 45-Minute Salvo today, the ECB cuts rates to a record low 0.75 percent and reduced the deposit rate to zero. Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China cut their benchmark borrowing costs (the second time in a month), and the Bank of England raised the size of its asset-purchase program.


Also note the central banks of Australia, the Czech Republic, Kazakhstan, Vietnam and Israel cut rates in June, while the Swiss National Bank is buying euros to defend its franc ceiling.

ECB president Mario Draghi said these events were not global coordinated easing.

I am willing to take him for his word. Thus, it's safe to assume that what has transpired was more akin to global uncoordinated panic.

European Bond Market Response Was "Not Enough"

The market response to this 45-minute volley of coordinated easing was "not enough". One look at the bond market in Italy and Spain makes that point crystal clear.

Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Spain 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Italy 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Certainty vs. Uncertainty

Bloomberg reports ECB President Mario Draghi said "heightened uncertainty" was weighing on confidence. Draghi also said the council didn't discuss other non-standard tools.

Clearly the market wanted "non-standard" tools such as more direct bond purchases. However, bond purchases are viewed by Germany as "monetary financing of government". Nonetheless, the ECB has done them before, over strenuous objections from the German central bank.

It is 100% certain Europe is in a recession and that recession will strengthen. It is also 100% certain the 19th summit solved nothing. So what is with all this talk about "heightened uncertainty"?

Meaning of Heightened Uncertainty

The words "heightened uncertainty" can be reasonably translated as "The economy is going to hell in a hand basket and we have no idea what to do about it".

Since the ECB and government officials cannot say that, nor can they says they are out of policy tools, they simply moan about "heightened uncertainty". Certainly they are uncertain about what to do, primarily because the problem at hand is not fixable.

Fed Uncertainty Principle

Now would be a good time to review the Fed Uncertainty Principle, especially corollaries one and two.

Corollary Number One:

The Fed has no idea where interest rates should be. Only a free market does. The Fed will be disingenuous about what it knows (nothing of use) and doesn't know (much more than it wants to admit), particularly in times of economic stress.

Corollary Number Two:

The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing.

What I said about the Fed apples to central banks in general.

By Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management . Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.

Visit Sitka Pacific's Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

I do weekly podcasts every Thursday on HoweStreet and a brief 7 minute segment on Saturday on CKNW AM 980 in Vancouver.

When not writing about stocks or the economy I spends a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com .

© 2012 Mike Shedlock, All Rights Reserved.


© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Comments

Paul Skinner
05 Jul 12, 23:11
Mish - perma bear deflation bug

Mish the perma bear has been wrong for 3 years, but he keeps beating the delation drum.

Wake up Mish and see the reality. You and other deflation perma bears are misleading other investors.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014