Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: EconMatters
Reasons or Excuses?
The reasons for the Fed not raising rates keep getting more bizarre and outside the scope of what used to constitute the Fed`s purview. First it was the financial crisis, then it was GDP growth not being up to par, then it was inflation not being robust enough, then it was employment being too soft, next it became China is slowing, then it became Europe is slowing, then it was Wall Street will sell off and there will be too much volatility, then it became lack of wage growth, next it was the Dollar was too strong, and now it is that Energy is too cheap. I am sure I missed at least 5 other reasons that have come and gone for the Fed not raising rates over the last 7 plus years of this ZIRP Fed Wall Street Welfare program.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Bond Market Bubble is Reaching Epic Proportions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
The 10-Year Bond now has a Yield of 2.08% right before the all-important Fed Quarterly Meeting and Press Conference this Wednesday, the 10-Year basically lost 24 basis points in a week, and mind you the week right after the strongest Employment Report (a positive 321,000 jobs added for the month) since the Financial Crisis, capping what has been a remarkable year in added jobs to the US economy, even wages spiked 0.4 % with strong upward employment revisions for the prior months. In short, in a normal functioning Bond Market Yields should be rising with improved economic conditions. Especially in a week with a robust Retail Sales Report up 0.7 % for the month. Bond Yields in the US should be much higher given the strong economic performance for 2014, and the Fed not only exiting QE, but about to start raising rates in 2015.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
More Washington DC Lies on Debts and Spending / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MISES
Mark Brandly writes: ”Recently, the Treasury Department secretary asserted that “The President’s policies and a strengthening U.S. economy have resulted in a reduction of the U.S. budget deficit of approximately two-thirds — the fastest sustained deficit reduction since World War II.” And, “the deficit in FY 20141 fell to $483 billion.”
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Debt, Default, and Taxes (DDT) Are Poison / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: DeviantInvestor
The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold.
In the single year from Sept. 30, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014, the US official national debt increased by over three times the value of all the gold that the US supposedly owns. The total debt and the increase in that debt is clearly “a problem.”
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Welcome to the Brave New World of Central Bank Tyranny / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Remember when banks used to make it worth your while to deposit cash with them?
Heck, if you’re old enough you probably even remember such inducements as free toasters.
But in a reprehensible turn of events, now you – the depositor – are about to get toasted.
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Sunday, December 07, 2014
Why the Fed Won’t Raise Interest Rates in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: U.S. short-term interest rates have stayed near zero for six years.
But if there’s one thing investment analysts of all stripes can agree on now, it’s that the Fed will start gradually raising rates in 2015.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
World Slides Deeper into the Dangerous "Helicopter Money" Delusion / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: If it seems to you that central banks and government leaders have run out of ideas, you're not totally wrong.
Indeed, the latest move by Japan smacks of pure desperation, and it might seem silly if it wasn't already an idea that's been floated before.
In fact, we may yet have the chance to see "helicopter money" and its effects after all.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Another Ponzi Roll Over of U.S. Treasury Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: BATR
As the holiday season draws nearer, it is nice to know that a present for all Americans and future generations is building as the hordes of consumers’ storm the aisles of their favorite box store so that they can go further in debt. Much like maxing out your plastic limits and paying the monthly minimum, the U.S. Treasury just keeps rolling over their debt since their credit card has no ceiling. The banksters behind the Federal Reserve have no problem with monetizing the national debt, since the Treasury provides their stamp of guarantee. As the public sector continues their spending spree, few really know the extent and amount of their share of the obligation.
Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Lower Interest Rates Forecast for 2015 / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: "It seems to me almost unthinkable that U.S. interest rates could rise in any meaningful way," Jeff Gundlach said on CNBC last week.
Jeff Gundlach is "The New Bond King" according to Forbes.
To be crowned King of the bond world, you must know interest rates better than anyone else on the planet. Gundlach has earned his place.
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Tuesday, December 02, 2014
US Debt Reaches $18 Trillion; Surges 70% In ‘Recovery’ of President Obama / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: GoldCore
Total U.S. national debt hit a new record high overnight at over $18 trillion as the Obama administration continues to pile debt onto the back of the U.S. taxpayer at a rate that would have made George W. Bush look positively prudent.
Monday, December 01, 2014
Central Banks Go All In - Capturing the China Cat / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Look for awhile at the China Cat Sunflower
Proud-walking jingle in the midnight sun
Copper-dome Bodhi drip a silver kimono
Like a crazy-quilt stargown
Through a dream night wind
Krazy Kat peeking through a lace bandana
Like a one-eyed Cheshire
Like a diamond-eye Jack
A leaf of all colors plays
A golden string fiddle
To a double-e waterfall over my back
Comic book colors on a violin river
Crying Leonardo words
From out a silk trombone
I rang a silent bell
Beneath a shower of pearls
In the eagle wing palace
Of the Queen Chinee
- Robert Hunter
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
How the Fed Sees Itself Is Not Pretty / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Talk about putting your foot in your mouth. This would be funny if it wasn’t sickening.
During congressional questioning on Friday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. Mass.) commented that the U.S. Federal Reserve‘s job is like that of “a cop on the beat.”
And that’s when New York Fed President William Dudley inserted a foot in his big mouth.
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Global Economies Will Dictate Interest Rate Hike Timing / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Sy_Harding
The Federal Reserve spent this year winding down its $85 billion a month QE stimulus program. With that task completed, the hot topic of analysts, and concern of markets, is how soon the Fed will take the next step in moving back toward normal monetary policies. That is, when will it begin raising interest rates from the current near-zero levels back toward normal?
Friday, November 21, 2014
Draghi Speaks the Truth; ECB Will ‘Do What it Must’ / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Gary_Tanashian
Words are important. This is not just a headline, it is a reality…
Draghi says ECB will ‘do what it must’ on asset buying to lift inflation
Not ‘do what it thinks would be the best course for the European economy’, not ‘choose the path of least resistance in guiding the financial system to recovery’… the ECB will DO WHAT IT MUST.
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Friday, November 21, 2014
30 Year Bond Bull Market - I Had My Cake, Until I Ate It / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Mauldin
After 30 years of declining interest rates, bond investors are beginning to worry that rates will go higher—especially after the events of May 2013.
Back then, 10-year yields went from 2% to 3% on a frozen rope. Things got very dicey in fixed income. Some holders of corporate bonds (like the new Apple bond) were suddenly down 10% just on interest rates alone.
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Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Global Irrational Exuberance Enters a New Phase / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: MISES
Brendan Brown writes: The present global plague of asset price inflation — with its origins in Federal Reserve quantitative easing policies and featuring much irrational exuberance — is transitioning into a new phase. Some optimistic commentators suggest a benign and painless end to the plague lies ahead. They cite the skill of the Federal Reserve in “ending QE.” These optimists even suggest that meanwhile, controlled injections of new viruses of asset price inflation by the Japanese and European central banks could have a good outcome, and this justifies the risks of the procedure. None of this optimism is justified by the evidence, nor by the known pathology of asset price inflation.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
What Blows Up First? Part 5: Shale Oil Junk Bonds / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: John_Rubino
One of the surest signs that a bubble is about to burst is junk bonds behaving like respectable paper. That is, their yields drop to mid-single digits, they start appearing with liberal loan covenants that display a high degree of trust in the issuer, and they start reporting really low default rates that lead the gullible to view them as “safe”. So everyone from pension funds to retirees start loading up in the expectation of banking an extra few points of yield with minimal risk.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
No U.S. Interest Rate Hike in 2015? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Everyone expects higher interest rates in 2015... Everyone, that is, except Jim Rickards.
Jim Rickards is an original thinker...
I've already shared with you in DailyWealth Jim's brilliant but out-of-the-mainstream view that DEFLATION – not inflation – is the financial storm that nobody is expecting. (I urge you to go back and read the DailyWealth I wrote about that, right here.)
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Friday, November 14, 2014
Stealth QE4 - Operation Tokyo Twist as Japan Sacrifices Pensions Funds / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Simply put, QE can never be halted or even slowed. The USFed is in a corner, with no policy options, facing collapse, with no ability whatsoever to halt the systemic failure in progress. It can only rely on hidden machinery and profound lies, against a background of constant economic propaganda. The central bank franchise system wrapped around the fiat paper currency regime has failed. They cannot stop it, not even with endless bond fraud and endless war, the new twin towers of the fascist state legacy. The entire financial structures have become fully dependent on easy money and debt financed by a printing press, buttressed by derivative machinery. The Uncle Sam bearing the USDollar emblem is like a pathetic heroin addict brandishing a modern howitzer. The USDollar is fast losing its integrity, during a dangerous global rejection episode. Therefore, QE must be exported, the easy candidate Japan. Call it Operation Tokyo Twist.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Yellen Hands Off Money Printing Press to Japan / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Michael_Pento
There is a saying: "The rich just keep getting richer". And by all accounts, since the 2008 financial crisis, they have. Unfortunately, for the struggling poor and middle class, wealthy asset holders have been the only beneficiary of six years of Federal Reserve easy-money policies. Under the tutelage of Ben Bernanke, the Fed introduced QE in March of 2009 with the hope it would save the economy from economic collapse. The goal was to create a new vibrant market for borrowing to replace the former vibrant market for borrowing that had just blown up, taking the economy with it. I am sure Ben Bernanke began this ruse with good intentions and the misplaced belief that real economic prosperity could be manufactured from creating new money.
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