Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Saturday, January 17, 2015
ECB Euro-zone QE Money Printing Program Taking Shape / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Dan_Norcini
More and more it appears as if we are going to get some form of QE next week out of the ECB. The big question is the size and scope of the program that most expect to be announced.
There has been some discussion as to whether the ECB would buy various government bonds across the board or whether the actual Central Banks of the respective Euro zone nations would buy their own government bonds as the composition of the actual bond buying program.
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Saturday, January 17, 2015
Swiss Storm - Central Banks Upside Down / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Raul_I_Meijer
The Swiss have unleashed a pretty wild storm in financial markets. All sorts of companies and people today are licking their wounds, and quite a few will simply have to fold. It’s no exception to be so leveraged in foreign exchange wagers that a move of a few percent can wipe you out, let alone one of 30%. Leverage makes sure that right off the bat a whole bunch of foreign exchange brokers, including FXCM, the biggest, are literally dead in the water – FXCM stock fell 90% -.
Friday, January 16, 2015
Will the ECB Soon Fire Up the Printing Presses? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Frank_Hollenbeck
There is growing anticipation that the European Central Bank will pull the QE (quantitative easing) trigger at its upcoming meeting on January 22nd. Never mind that such an action explicitly violates article 104 of the Maastricht treaty (article 123 of the Treaty for the Functioning of the European Union):
“Overdraft facilities or any other type of credit facility with the ECB or with the central banks of the Member States (hereinafter referred to as ‘national central banks’) in favour of Community institutions or bodies, central governments, regional, local or other public authorities, other bodies governed by public law, or public undertakings of Member States shall be prohibited, as shall the purchase directly from them by the ECB or national central banks of debt instruments.”
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Friday, January 16, 2015
The Next Subprime Debt Crisis Has Already Started / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Reading about what's going on in the subprime auto lending space is a lot like reading about drive-by shootings.
Unless you're a subprime borrower, or live in a neighborhood where drive-bys are happening, you probably don't know much about either or think they affect you.
But if you listen closely there's muffled financial "gunfire" already in your neighborhood.
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Sunday, January 11, 2015
U.S. Treasury Bonds Elliott Wave Long View / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Unfortunately, this chart doesn’t go back prior to 1990, but there are clues that tell me where we are in the Elliott Wave structure. Wave III, for example, is exactly 12.9 years long. It is followed by a Triangle Wave IV, which is 3.87 years long.
Wave V is nearing an end. It is trading in a very straight trading channel. (It looks managed, don’t you think?) It is highly probable that the end of the T-bond uptrend may get a little help from a decline in equities. If so, a peak between the end of April and mid-May in bonds may correspond very neatly with the next potential bottom in the SPX. In other Words, the “flow” will be out of stocks and into bonds.
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Friday, January 09, 2015
The Hidden Perils of Low Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Browne
Late last year, with the U.S. economy experiencing falling unemployment and seemingly low inflation, observers were extremely confident that the Federal Reserve would move judiciously in 2015 to restore 'normal' interest rates sooner rather than later. However, in light of the recent fall in both stocks and oil, that conviction has softened considerably.
Many, such as the very influential Bill Gross, now believe that our current Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), which has been in place for six years, will remain in place throughout the year. While this likelihood is a disappointment to many, who would have preferred to see the economy move along without Fed-supplied training wheels, few really understand the pernicious effects these policies are inflicting on the economy the longer they are held in place. In short, ZIRP is slowly transforming the world economy into a dysfunctional basket case.
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
U.S. Treasury Bond Bull Market Refuses to Die / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Dan_Norcini
Call this the market that simply will not die. As mentioned in some previous posts, just about the time one thinks that this market is finally ready to turn lower marking the onset of the end of the ultra-low long term interest rates and the inception of the new trend towards higher rates, back up it goes and down go the rates.
Between US investors seeking safe havens due to slowing growth and falling crude oil prices, and foreign investors looking for higher yielding alternatives to their own government bonds, ( which pay next to nothing not to mention the currency risk that they are exposed to thanks to the soaring US Dollar), bond bears haven't a chance in here.
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Wednesday, December 17, 2014
Wall Street Will Always Find An Excuse For Not Raising U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: EconMatters
Reasons or Excuses?
The reasons for the Fed not raising rates keep getting more bizarre and outside the scope of what used to constitute the Fed`s purview. First it was the financial crisis, then it was GDP growth not being up to par, then it was inflation not being robust enough, then it was employment being too soft, next it became China is slowing, then it became Europe is slowing, then it was Wall Street will sell off and there will be too much volatility, then it became lack of wage growth, next it was the Dollar was too strong, and now it is that Energy is too cheap. I am sure I missed at least 5 other reasons that have come and gone for the Fed not raising rates over the last 7 plus years of this ZIRP Fed Wall Street Welfare program.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
U.S. Bond Market Bubble is Reaching Epic Proportions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: EconMatters
The 10-Year Bond now has a Yield of 2.08% right before the all-important Fed Quarterly Meeting and Press Conference this Wednesday, the 10-Year basically lost 24 basis points in a week, and mind you the week right after the strongest Employment Report (a positive 321,000 jobs added for the month) since the Financial Crisis, capping what has been a remarkable year in added jobs to the US economy, even wages spiked 0.4 % with strong upward employment revisions for the prior months. In short, in a normal functioning Bond Market Yields should be rising with improved economic conditions. Especially in a week with a robust Retail Sales Report up 0.7 % for the month. Bond Yields in the US should be much higher given the strong economic performance for 2014, and the Fed not only exiting QE, but about to start raising rates in 2015.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
More Washington DC Lies on Debts and Spending / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: MISES
Mark Brandly writes: ”Recently, the Treasury Department secretary asserted that “The President’s policies and a strengthening U.S. economy have resulted in a reduction of the U.S. budget deficit of approximately two-thirds — the fastest sustained deficit reduction since World War II.” And, “the deficit in FY 20141 fell to $483 billion.”
Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Debt, Default, and Taxes (DDT) Are Poison / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: DeviantInvestor
The official US National Debt is about $18,000,000,000,000, or 57 times the current market price of the US gold SUPPOSEDLY stored at Fort Knox, the NY Fed, and elsewhere. With so much paper in the system it is easy to see why the Fed publicly denigrates gold.
In the single year from Sept. 30, 2013 to Sept. 30, 2014, the US official national debt increased by over three times the value of all the gold that the US supposedly owns. The total debt and the increase in that debt is clearly “a problem.”
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Tuesday, December 09, 2014
Welcome to the Brave New World of Central Bank Tyranny / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Remember when banks used to make it worth your while to deposit cash with them?
Heck, if you’re old enough you probably even remember such inducements as free toasters.
But in a reprehensible turn of events, now you – the depositor – are about to get toasted.
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Sunday, December 07, 2014
Why the Fed Won’t Raise Interest Rates in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Investment_U
Alexander Green writes: U.S. short-term interest rates have stayed near zero for six years.
But if there’s one thing investment analysts of all stripes can agree on now, it’s that the Fed will start gradually raising rates in 2015.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
World Slides Deeper into the Dangerous "Helicopter Money" Delusion / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Money_Morning
Peter Krauth writes: If it seems to you that central banks and government leaders have run out of ideas, you're not totally wrong.
Indeed, the latest move by Japan smacks of pure desperation, and it might seem silly if it wasn't already an idea that's been floated before.
In fact, we may yet have the chance to see "helicopter money" and its effects after all.
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Another Ponzi Roll Over of U.S. Treasury Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: BATR
As the holiday season draws nearer, it is nice to know that a present for all Americans and future generations is building as the hordes of consumers’ storm the aisles of their favorite box store so that they can go further in debt. Much like maxing out your plastic limits and paying the monthly minimum, the U.S. Treasury just keeps rolling over their debt since their credit card has no ceiling. The banksters behind the Federal Reserve have no problem with monetizing the national debt, since the Treasury provides their stamp of guarantee. As the public sector continues their spending spree, few really know the extent and amount of their share of the obligation.
Wednesday, December 03, 2014
Lower Interest Rates Forecast for 2015 / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: DailyWealth
Steve Sjuggerud writes: "It seems to me almost unthinkable that U.S. interest rates could rise in any meaningful way," Jeff Gundlach said on CNBC last week.
Jeff Gundlach is "The New Bond King" according to Forbes.
To be crowned King of the bond world, you must know interest rates better than anyone else on the planet. Gundlach has earned his place.
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Tuesday, December 02, 2014
US Debt Reaches $18 Trillion; Surges 70% In ‘Recovery’ of President Obama / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: GoldCore
Total U.S. national debt hit a new record high overnight at over $18 trillion as the Obama administration continues to pile debt onto the back of the U.S. taxpayer at a rate that would have made George W. Bush look positively prudent.
Monday, December 01, 2014
Central Banks Go All In - Capturing the China Cat / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Look for awhile at the China Cat Sunflower
Proud-walking jingle in the midnight sun
Copper-dome Bodhi drip a silver kimono
Like a crazy-quilt stargown
Through a dream night wind
Krazy Kat peeking through a lace bandana
Like a one-eyed Cheshire
Like a diamond-eye Jack
A leaf of all colors plays
A golden string fiddle
To a double-e waterfall over my back
Comic book colors on a violin river
Crying Leonardo words
From out a silk trombone
I rang a silent bell
Beneath a shower of pearls
In the eagle wing palace
Of the Queen Chinee
- Robert Hunter
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Tuesday, November 25, 2014
How the Fed Sees Itself Is Not Pretty / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank
By: Money_Morning
Shah Gilani writes: Talk about putting your foot in your mouth. This would be funny if it wasn’t sickening.
During congressional questioning on Friday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D. Mass.) commented that the U.S. Federal Reserve‘s job is like that of “a cop on the beat.”
And that’s when New York Fed President William Dudley inserted a foot in his big mouth.
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Saturday, November 22, 2014
Global Economies Will Dictate Interest Rate Hike Timing / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System
By: Sy_Harding
The Federal Reserve spent this year winding down its $85 billion a month QE stimulus program. With that task completed, the hot topic of analysts, and concern of markets, is how soon the Fed will take the next step in moving back toward normal monetary policies. That is, when will it begin raising interest rates from the current near-zero levels back toward normal?