Category: Financial Markets
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
All Major Market Analysis and Forecasts Investor Open House has Started! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: EWI
It's here! For one week only, you have free access to the whole kit 'n' caboodle of investor services from Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm. During this week-long event, you'll see their U.S., European and Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Services. Each of these three services comprises two regional publications plus the flagship, big-picture investor publication, The Elliott Wave Theorist, by EWI Founder and President Robert Prechter.
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Friday, June 27, 2014
GDP Collapse, Stocks Explosive Divergence Between Volume and Price, Peak Leverage? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
This week has not been sleepy when it comes to the news. It feels like a firecracker out there just waiting for a match in my opinion. There have been too many issues to cover them all but here are a few TedBits for you:
- Surrender
- GDP collapse
- Explosive divergence between volume and price
- MORAL HAZARD written large
- Leverage peak in stocks?
- SOME People aren't DUMB
- EU elites pull another FAST ONE
Saturday, June 14, 2014
Financial Markets Good News In All The Bad Data / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Adam_Taggart
Today's financial markets make a mockery out of sanity and logic. The difference between what SHOULD happen and what IS happening is perhaps the greatest it has been in our investing lifetimes.
If you're perplexed, flummoxed, frustrated, stymied, enraged, bored, irritated, insulted, discouraged -- any or all of these -- by the ever-higher blind grinding of asset prices over the past several years, despite so many structural reasons for concern, you have good reason to be.
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Thursday, October 28, 2010
A Fingerprint of Instability in Biology and Finance, Time Series and Fractals Analysis / InvestorEducation / Financial Markets
By: Ashvin_Pandurangi
Recently, there has been much research into the chaotic dynamics of complex systems in many different fields. Complexity theory provides great analytical insights into the structures of "hard" sciences such as biology and also social sciences such as economics. It can even reveal dyamic properties that will serve as predictive indicators across both of the two fields (and perhaps many others). It should be noted that "predictive" doesn't necessarily mean a specific result will always follow, but that it becomes significantly more likely to occur. The following article will explore a relatively simple indicator which identifies high probabilities of instability in both the human circulatory system (specifically cardiac) and financial markets. Let's start this discussion with a short quiz. Take a look at the following four graphs of heartbeats per minute over a 30-minute interval, and see if you can guess which one(s) belongs to a healthy patient and which one belongs to a patient facing sudden cardiac death:
Monday, January 26, 2009
Financial Markets at Cross Roads On Stimulus Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Proposed Economic Stimulus Plan May Not Stimulate Much
The new administration is proposing an $825 billion "stimulus" plan. Most of the package is geared toward helping existing or expanded programs such as unemployment assistance, law enforcement, food stamps, etc. Much of this spending will "save" existing jobs or keep existing programs already in place. This may help prevent things from getting worse, but it will offer little in the way of providing new stimulation for the economy. Another large portion of the stimulus plan is in the form of tax cuts. While depreciation incentives may spur some new business spending, credits to individuals may offer little incentive to spend given the state of their balance sheets and concerns about employment. After all the hype about infrastructure spending, only about 25% of the package is geared toward this area.
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Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Most Popular Financial Markets Analysis of 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
As the abysmal investment and economic year of 2008 draws to a close the following represent the 10 most popular financial markets analysis articles out of a pool of 5000 published during the year. For my financial markets outlook and forecasts special for 2009, subscribe to our always free newsletter.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
The Last Hour of 2008, an Extraordinarily Long Year / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Shedlock
2008 is rapidly winding down. If it seems like it's been a long year, it's because it has been. Tick tock ... tick: Extra second added to 2008
Those eager to put 2008 behind them will have to hold their good-byes for just a moment this New Year's Eve.
The world's official timekeepers have added a "leap second" to the last day of the year on Wednesday, to help match clocks to the Earth's slowing spin on its axis, which takes place at ever-changing rates affected by tides and other factors.
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Friday, December 26, 2008
Financial Markets and Economic Potpourri December 26, 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Shedlock
The barrage of noteworthy economic news continues unabated. I took a lot of time off posting Christmas Eve and Christmas. Here are a few headline news reports of interest from the past couple days that have been stacking up. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Top Financial Markets Stories of 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Andy_Sutton
2008 will likely go down in history as the year when all those dire predictions made by Austrian thinkers over the past few years finally came to pass. Decades of excesses finally caught up to America, and in traditional fashion, those in authority tried valiantly to negate those excesses with even more of the same. So, to conclude the year, we'll dig into some of the top stories of 2008. Next week we'll discuss the top stories of 2009 and how they are likely to shape our country and world moving forward. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Stock Markets in Christmas Wind Down Mode / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
Markets are ending this awful year with a whimper as they drift lower in thin volume. Investors are taking some money off the table to buy better (heavily discounted) last minute presents. Sentiment has been further soured by more bad news from the auto sector. The previously immune Toyota have warned on profits for the second time in seven weeks. The market is left to wonder what is the point of spending billions of taxpayer's wedge on basket case Detroit if Toyota can't even win. Then we have the hurdle of all those Madoff redemptions to cope with in early '09. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 22, 2008
Auto Bailout Fails To Cheer the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
So the US auto industry is the latest in the seemingly endless stream of disasters that has resulted in a temporary TARP plaster being applied to a haemorrhaging wound . Indices failed to bounce on the bailout news as they have seen all of this before. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Gold and Stock Market Bear Attack Warning / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Broad Market Outlook: - Friday the market closed mixed with light volume due to the holiday season. I always use the DOW (DIA) as a market indicator for the overall strength. The chart below shows a simple chart on where the market stands. Currently all the moving averages are trending down or sideways as the market trades at resistance. Prices have been drifting higher on light volume which is not a good sign for the bulls (longs). We are at a point now where the market is going to make a nice run higher or possibly another leg lower. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Zero Interest Rates, Plunging Bond Yields, Slumping Oil Price, Stocks Santa Rally? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“Americans have always been able to handle austerity and even adversity. Prosperity [greed!] is what is doing us in,” said James Reston , former New York Times journalist and Pulitzer Prize winner.
Another chapter in dealing with the current credit and economic adversity was written on Tuesday when the US Federal Reserve announced a no-holds-barred set of measures in a determined attempt to fix the broken credit machine, revive economic activity and stem the deflationary tide.
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Saturday, December 20, 2008
Stock, Commodities, and Bond Markets 2008 Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
A high altitude view of global markets can be gleaned from monitoring a relatively small group of broad index funds. We think these ten asset categories and related proxy ETFs, provide a quick summary overview of world markets.
Certainly, more granularity could be more helpful, but these ten major asset categories are a good place to start.
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Friday, December 19, 2008
Stock Market, Gold and Oil Fall on Auto Bailout News / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
GM and Chrysler will get $13.4 billion in loans. General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC will get $13.4 billion in initial government loans to keep operating in exchange for substantially restructuring their businesses under a rescue plan announced by President George W. Bush. The money will be drawn from the Troubled Asset Relief Program set up to bail out financial institutions. An additional $4 billion would be allocated in February provided the second half of TARP's authorized $700 billion is released by Congress. The funds would allow GM and Chrysler to keep operating until March. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Extreme Technical Levels Point to Stocks and Crude Oil Snapback Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
As we speak, the VIX is trading BELOW its 11/04 low at 44.25, which COULD imply that the e-SPH (890.25) and cash S&P 500, including the SPDRs (AMEX: SPY), are about to take off to the upside. As I noted on Thursday while the VIX was at 44.62 and the e-SPH at 903.50: "Purely from a chart perspective, the pattern that has developed-- and its near-future implications-- suggests that the VIX has lower values directly ahead-- possibly acutely lower when compared to where it has come from since late-October. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 19th December / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-
term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1181.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Stock Markets See Red Despite Collapse in Crude Oil Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
US equities finished down yesterday as various pieces of bad news emerged. GE's giant financial arm GECC has been downgraded to negative by S&P . Also there's a delay in the decision by the US administration whether to bail out US automakers although there is speculation that an announcement could come as early as today. On top of all of this was a further drop in oil prices below $36 per barrel (the low since June 2004) which weighed on energy stocks, despite the 2.46M barrel output cut by OPEC. So consumer joy in Dublin, Washington and London = panic in Moscow, Tehran and Caracas. The only good news for investors was the decline in equity volatility with the VIX index dropping to its lowest level since October 3rd. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, December 18, 2008
U.S. Dollar Vs Treasury Yield, Gold, Crude Oil and Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Richard_Shaw
Here are 3-year charts comparing weekly performance of the US Dollar index to:
- (A) to the yield on 3-month and 2-year US Treasuries,
- (B) to the price of crude oil and gold bullion,
- (C) to the price for the MSCI World ex US stocks index and the Russell 3000 US stocks index.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Stock Markets Drift Lower In A Quiet Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
It's gone all eerily quiet in a fatigued and illiquid market as we approach end year. The Dow Jones fell 1.12% last night in another low volume day . Stocks continue to fret in the wake of the Madoff debacle. Morgan Stanley missed their earnings expectations badly yesterday and GE has even given up giving earnings guidance. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Stock Markets Soar as Fed ZIRP Makes Money Free / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
So ZIRP(idée doo dah) as the Fed heads into uncharted waters by cutting rates by ¾% to only 0.25%. They will now buy Treasuries (i.e. quantitative easing) to help. So rates at zero for as long as it takes with the promise that they will buy MBS, ABS, GSE paper and any old iron if it helps counter this historic deflationary depression. Sanity clause has prevailed and we may not need to start learning Japanese. But more seriously and crucially, confidence has been (temporarily) instilled as ZIRP eases debt burdens, makes financing and refinancing cheaper and hopefully reflates assets prices. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Stock Markets Focus on FOMC Interest Rate Meeting / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
A wishy-washy, nothing sort of a day for equities yesterday. Although they were on the back foot, they only finished marginally underwater . The Nikkei held up reasonably well overnight despite news that once Teflon Toyota is the ask suppliers to slash prices by up to 30% next year. Steel makers fared the worst on this report. The market is now bracing itself for some ugly numbers from those former-masters-of-the-universe-but-now-humbled Goldman Sachs today before the bell. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2008
Bailout Or Bankruptcy For The Big Three Automakers? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
Equities recovered late Friday evening with the prospect of the cure all TARP cavalry coming to the rescue of the automakers . But with Bush getting shoes thrown at him in Iraq, the spotlight once again will fall on the troubled banking sector with Goldman Sachs, reporting Tuesday and Morgan Stanley, Wednesday. For all of the economic and corporate releases this week, check out the Weekly Wrap . Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 15, 2008
Automaker Bailout Fails, Stock Market Short Lived Optimism Evaporates / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
After an opening surge on Monday, markets had a mixed time of it for the remainder of the week. President elect Barrack Obama’s announcement of a huge public works program helped virtually every market rally against the main trends of the last few weeks. Equities and commodities were higher, while the dollar, bonds, and CDS levels all eased. Unfortunately the optimism didn’t last, with the refusal of congress to ratify the Automaker bailout becoming the catalyst for the selling seen at the end of the week.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Trying to take you off the Investment Roller-coaster / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Armstrong_Davis
I have pleasure in sending you our winter 2008 Investment Report. Do have a look at he website www.ArmstrongDavis.com should you wish to view previous reports as well as our work in the national media. The website should be entirely revamped by the New Year - more user-friendly and interactive.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Senate Rejects Automakers Bailout, Stock Market Implications / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The bailout plan for GM and closely held Chrysler LLC was rejected last night after talks failed over Republican senators' demands that union workers accept a cut in wages next year. GM and Chrysler said they may run out of cash for their operations as sales head toward their lowest in 17 years. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 10th December / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1158.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the index. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Stock Market Rally Was Running on Empty- “The 12 Bailouts of Xmas” / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
Stocks retreated yesterday as the euphoria about Obama's package gave way to a more somber reflection on more layoff announcements (Sony, Citibank, Rio Tinto, Skf and Molex) and poor earnings outlooks (Nokia, Texas Instruments, Broadcom, Danahe and Samsung). Bellwether stock FedEx fell 16%, hardly an omen of a 2009 economic pickup. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Market Fundamentals, Valuations, and Technical Trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Long-Term Technicals Continue to Outweigh Valuations - During bear markets investors have to weigh numerous inputs when making asset allocation decisions. From the list below, investors would be well served to place higher weights on housing and the market's technical health. In terms of managing risk in the short to intermediate term, they are more important than valuations or general economic conditions. Stocks will bottom before the economy, but only when we can see some light at the end of the economic tunnel. Housing stabilization is a key component in helping us see the economic light. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 9th December / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above the reaction high crossing at 1201.00 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1158.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the index. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Stock Markets Get Stimulated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
Equity markets continue to put a remarkably positive spin on last Friday's calamitous jobs numbers. Indeed since the low of 741 on November 22nd, the S&P 500 has rallied 22% . Does this then qualify as a bull market? Or merely the seasonal media friendly Santa Claus rally? And all this despite more layoffs from Dow Chemical, UBS and MMM and profit warnings from stocks as diverse as Texas Instruments, FEDEX and trucking company Con-Way. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Rebuilding Financial Markets Confidence / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Headlines and the news programs were loaded with the dire news of over 500,000 newly unemployed and how the economy is headed into territory it has visited only once in our history. So why did the stock market rise by nearly 300 points by the trading days end? It might be that the 40% decline over the past year has already factored in much of the bad news already. As we have been discussing over the past two months, the economic data will be bad for at least the next couple of months as the credit collapse works its way through the economy. The coming week will hit a wide swath of the economic landscape, from housing to sentiment to inflation and trade.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Huge Job Losses Spark Stock Market Rally! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
So on Friday we had the largest number of job losses since 1974. But stocks rallied hard and bonds sold off; highly illogical as Mr Spock would say . Though exactly the same thing happened back in 1974 when stocks staged a stunning rally despite shatteringly poor economic news as investors called a bottom. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 08, 2008
Financial Markets See More Contractions / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Markets received a jolt of pain on Friday, as US employment numbers came in at -533,000, way beyond consensus estimates. The figures were the worst for three decades and are yet another instance to add to the ever growing pile of “once in a generation” type extremes that we've seen in 2008. Friday’s numbers were predicted by just one outfit (ING) and that was seen as an outlier. However, as a sign, that perhaps markets are becoming inured to the dreadful economic news US markets actually managed to rally into the close on Friday. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished down on the week, but well above the week’s lows.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Fed Gambles Trillions to Stabilise Financial System / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Over a Half Million Jobs Axed in November. There is no joy on Main Street this holiday season as 533,000 jobs were axed in November.
“Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply (-533,000) in November, and the unemployment rate rose from 6.5 to 6.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. November's drop in payroll employment followed declines of 403,000 in September and 320,000 in October, as revised. Job losses were large and widespread across the major industry sectors in November.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Financial Markets Technical Analysis- Yorba TV / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Today’s Yorba TV Program may be entitled “Final Landing” since the indexes have now given us a potential map of its intentions. Last week I put out a video on YouTube describing my current views on the BKX. It drew a lot of commentary and gave me a reason to re-evaluate the chart patterns to get the “best fit.” The red horizontal line is the neckline of an earlier head and shoulders pattern that had a target of 33 in the BKX. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 01, 2008
Stock Market Santa Rally Could Correct this Week / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Markets pulled their socks up last week, with global equities putting some distance between the November lows and Friday’s close. The FTSE 100 enjoyed a 13% weekly gain, while the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq are up 17.1%, 19.9% and 18.3% from the November lows respectively. The week started well with traders liking what they saw in the massive bailout of Citi group.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Investors Give Thanks for Stock Market Five Day Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week brought investors an additional item to be thankful for when stock markets closed higher for five consecutive trading days - a rare winning streak last accomplished in July 2007. The S&P 500 Index has gained 19.1% since the start of the rally on November 21 and 12.0% on the week, registering the largest weekly gain since 1974. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Dow Jones Stock Market Index Defies Gravity And Reality / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: PaddyPowerTrader
The Dow Jones is now on a 1,000 point, four day winning streak in a defiant bear market rally that defies the ever darkening economic backdrop and the awful cowardly terrorist attacks in Mumbai. So as the ghastly slew of economic data continued unabated yesterday the reality is that this mini rally has probably a lot to do with month end portfolio adjustments from cash and bonds into stocks. Look at US 10 year Treasuries yields which are below 3%, so the bond market is blowing this rally a big raspberry. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Gold and Financial Markets- A Nova-view / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The jump in the gold price on Friday November 21st 2008 may be the harbinger of a sea change in attitudes in the markets in general. To understand the implications of this it is probably appropriate to take a step back and take a fresh look at the Big Picture.
The chart of the ratio of the gold price to the commodities index enables us to monitor whether the markets are viewing gold as just another commodity or, perhaps, something other than a commodity. Below is a 3% X 3 box reversal Point and Figure chart of this ratio (courtesy stockcharts.com).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 22, 2008
The Next Financial Markets and Real Earthquake / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The next shoe to drop…synthetic CDOs. In an article by Alan Kohler of the Business Spectator we find the following observation, “As the world slips into recession, it is also on the brink of a synthetic CDO cataclysm that could actually save the global banking system. It is a truly great irony that the world's banks could end up being saved not by governments, but by the synthetic CDO time bomb that they set ticking with their own questionable practices during the credit boom. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Bailout for GE But not Yet for GM / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Holiday Retail Sales aren't what they used to be.- “ The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $363.7 billion, a decrease of 2.8 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 4.1 percent (±0.7%) below October 2007.” Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
21st Century Investments, What's Hot and What's Not! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Tim_Iacono
It took a while to make up this chart, therefore, I don't have much of anything to add. Fortunately, the chart speaks for itself.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Stocks, U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil Video Analysis and Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: INO
When Paulson came out today and stated that his earlier plan to save the western world was not working, he offered up a plan "C" (or is it "D"?) to relieve pressure on consumer credit, scrapping his earlier effort to buy the value mortgage assets.
No matter what happens or what the next plan is here, are the 3 reasons I believe stocks are headed lower.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Another U.S. Interest Rate Cut and Financial Market Trends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Colin_Twiggs
Detroit Deja Vu - Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid recently sent a letter to Henry Paulson urging him to use funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to rescue the big three automakers. Barack Obama has also hinted that he favors a taxpayer rescue ( WSJ.com ).
It is a sign of the times. The Australian government recently announced a $6.2 billion rescue package for their struggling automotive industry ( Canberra Times ). But I feel that I have seen this all before.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Deaf, Dumb and Blind Economists Still Failing to Call Recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
More unintended consequences of the bailout. “When the government took over mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, taxpayers inherited more than just bad debts. They're also potentially on the hook for tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for the executives at the center of the housing market's collapse. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 03, 2008
U.S. Elections and Performance of Stocks, Dollar and Economy / Politics / Financial Markets
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Much has been written about the relationship between the partisan power in the White House and the performance of the stock market. Considerable amount of statistical exercise was undertaken in dissecting any the correlations and causalities involving partisan control of Congress, mid-term elections, balance of power between White House and Congress, and the impact of double term presidencies. The table below shows the performance of the dollar index, S&P500 and the general state of the US economy since the dollar became freely floated in 1971. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Gold Sell Signal as Oversold Stock Markets Turn Bullish / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
Don’t trust the Text Books - On reflection, there may be more to what is happening on the markets than meets the eye. For one thing, the gold price – the ultimate harbinger of fear in the economy – is stubbornly refusing to rise to new heights, and its oscillator has given a sell signal. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 01, 2008
Stock Markets Rise Wall of Worry as Consumer Spending Slumps / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The consumer votes “ No Confidence .” - “The October survey recorded the largest monthly decline in consumer confidence in the history of the surveys. “Consumer confidence had already declined by mid 2008 by more than prior to any past recession and the steep October loss indicates that accelerated cutbacks in spending can be expected during the months ahead,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Overall, the data indicate that this will be the bleakest holiday spending season since 1980. “Consumers held the least favorable assessments of their finances in more than a half century and viewed their job prospects more negatively than at any other time since the end of 1980,” according to Curtin. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 27, 2008
Panicking Investors Rush to U.S. Dollar and Yen Bonds / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The past week witnessed mounting evidence that the world economy was facing a sharp downturn, causing unrest to engulf financial markets. Stocks and emerging-market currencies and bonds remained under heavy selling pressure as risk-averse investors rushed to liquidate positions, with the US dollar , Japanese yen and developed-market bonds providing perceived safe havens. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Stock Market Rebound Opportunities / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Weekly_Wizards
Our Wizards Jack Steiman, Mike Paulenoff and Harry Boxer weigh in this week on the direction of the markets. According to Steiman, author of SwingTradeOnline.com : Many triangles or flags are in place on the index charts, and for now we must realize that these are bear and not bull flags until they can be taken out to the top side of those triangles. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Volatile Week Ends With Signs of Improving Credit Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
What a crazy week! A week in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to record both its largest single-day points increase (+936 points on Monday) and its second-largest one-day points decline (-733 points on Wednesday) since its start in 1896. On Thursday the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index surged to a record high of 81.17, with the Dow closing the week 4.7% higher after the previous week's record 18.2% decline. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Mike Stathis Q&A Session from Emails / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Stathis
I've been getting bombarded with so many emails that I really can't keep up. I appreciate your kind thoughts. Because many of the emails are similar and due to my lack of time, I've decided to periodically address questions from some selected emails here. Hopefully, this will answer some of the questions you might have as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 13, 2008
Nationalisation of the Wests Banking System / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Submissions
A quick review, first.
We wrote, on 24th January 2008:“ In FTSE 100 terms, we were above 6700 in October and we went to 5300 this week – a fall of 20%. That is a crash by any other name.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Stock Market, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
In a July 24, 2008 article, Commodity Breakdowns Warrant Defensive Action , I wrote the following based on the ugly look of the chart of financial stocks (XLF): "While financial stocks have hit a violent intermediate bottom and could rally for a while longer the odds favor lower lows in the months ahead as housing prices continue to decline. The chart below illustrates the structural nature of the problems facing the housing and financial industry. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, October 06, 2008
Bailout Dramas Generate More Stock Market Black Mondays / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Another dramatic weekend saw four banks receive government bail outs, not to
mention the further file sales and mergers. Mondays have been chaos for the
last few weeks, as governments on both sides of the pond prefer to work
through major announcements, mergers, and bailouts, over the relative calm of
the weekend. Although Bradford and Bingley grabbed the headlines in the UK,
governments in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxemburg had to throw billions
at Fortis, while Germany guaranteed loans to Hypo Real Estate. In the US,
investors waved goodbye to Wachovio as a takeover by Wells Fargo pleased
traders, in part as it indicated further mergers and acquisitions might be on
the cards. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Financial Crisis Investing: The Big Picture / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
While sitting on large cash positions, it is prudent to take some time to examine the big picture. Markets all over the world and the vast majority of asset classes remain firmly in downtrends. Powerful countertrend rallies are to be expected and are overdue. Countertrend rallies can last weeks or months. They will come at some point – we should not let them take our eye off the bear-market ball. We are far from having significant evidence that a lasting bottom is in place.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 27, 2008
WaMu America's Biggest Bank Failure / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
In what is by far the largest bank failure in U.S. history, federal regulators seized Washington Mutual Inc. and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
The collapse of the Seattle thrift, which was triggered by a wave of deposit withdrawals, marks a new low point in the country's financial crisis. But the deal, as constructed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., could hold some glimmers of hope for the beleaguered banking system because it averts any hit to the bank-insurance fund.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 22, 2008
Financial Markets Stabilize After Recent Beatings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Traders, investors, and financial journalists must have been glad to reach the end of a week that will surely go down in the history of financial markets. The FTSE closed the week just 66 points down which the S&P 500 actually managed a small profit. Homeowner, the closing figures do not even begin to tell the whole story with the FTSE trading in a 521 point range and posting its best one day rally in history on Friday.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 20, 2008
United States Becomes Toxic Debt Waste Dump to Stop Financial Armageddon / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The camel's nose got in the tent when Bear Stearns was bailed out. The question is, when will it end? The U.S. government moved to cleanse banks of troubled assets and halt an exodus of investors from money markets in the biggest expansion of federal power over the financial system since the Great Depression.
A toxic waste dump.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Definitive Guide to Financial Markets Trading / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
The Ultimate in Tactical Price Forecasting – Bar None When it comes to strategically trading broad market equity indices profitably, there is simply no match for Elliott Wave Technology's Near Term Outlook . We respectfully challenge any short-term advisory or software generated algorithms to improve upon or better optimize the efficiency of tactical trading dynamics we dispatch daily for the Dow, S&P, or NDX. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Bailout Lemmings Getting Ready to Jump Over the Cliff / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Now that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are placed under conservatorship, you would think that the politicians would step away from that mess and let things settle down. Instead, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee members urged Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , the mortgage companies placed under federal control this week, to freeze foreclosures on loans in their portfolios for at least 90 days. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 12, 2008
Equity and Commodity Markets Dichotomy of Sanity / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
One dictionary meaning of the word “dichotomy” is: “Division into two usually contradictory parts or opinions”. Alternatively: “being twofold; a classification into two opposed parts or subclasses.”
It has been this analyst's experience that truly sane people are those who sometimes display symptoms of what appears to be insanity. One cannot appreciate light unless one has experienced dark. One cannot appreciate happiness unless one has experienced sadness. No one can be truly sane unless he experiences flashes of insanity. It's a question of degree.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 08, 2008
Soaring Unemployment and Falling Asset Prices / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The unemployment rate soared to 6.1% in August, the highest rate in almost five years, as the economy took a turn for the worse. The rate has steadily climbed this year from a cycle low of 4.4%. The U.S. Department of Labor reports, “ The unemployment rate rose from 5.7 to 6.1 percent in August, and non- farm payroll employment continued to trend down (-84,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. In August, employment fell in manufacturing and employment services, while mining and health care continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent, over the month.” Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Financial Markets Monthly Analysis and Stock Pick / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
The markets continue to be range bound with the Dow Jones Industrias bouncing between 11,000 and 11,750.
The S&P 500 is caught between the 1220 and the 1300 level. In both cases this containment has prevailed since July and indicates the lack of conviction by the major players. Obviously nobody is convinced yet that the credit crisis is over.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Stock Market Crash Opportunities, Broken Printing Presses, Cattle and Hogs / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_Lamont
As we mentioned two months ago , a speculative commodity bust would fit with the onset of a deflationary collapse. During the month of July, commodities began this correction with the largest monthly decline in 28 years . They are still falling. Similarly, Lombard Street Research 's measure of M3 fell in July the most on record (since 1959). The chart of the percentage change in money growth is below. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Stimulus Checks Spent, Stock Market Optimism Turns to Pessimism / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Personal income decreased $89.9 billion, or 0.7 percent, in July, in contrast to an increase of $7.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, in June and an increase of $218.0 billion, or 1.8 percent, in May. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $114.7 billion, or 1.1 percent, in July, compared with a decrease of $208.0 billion, or 1.9 percent, in June and an increase of $595.9 billion, or 5.7 percent in May. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $24.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, in July, compared with an increase of $65.5 billion, or 0.6 percent, in June. The pattern of changes in income reflects the pattern of payments associated with the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 29, 2008
Stock Market Rally Does Not Change Fundamentals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
While Thursday's gains in stocks appear to be impressive, they do little in terms of making an impact on longer-term trends. We do not need any complicated technical indicators to discern the long-term trends on the following charts. Thursday's rally in stocks cannot even be seen on the six-year chart of the S&P 500 Index below. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Financial Markets Heading for Trading Ranges / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
Arguably, gold shares are leveraged to the gold price.
Arguably, the markets look ahead. If these two propositions are true, then the direction of movement of gold share prices should be pointing the way to the future direction of gold price movements.
The chart below (courtesy stockcharts.com) reflects a fairly serious breakdown of the relative strength chart of gold shares vs the gold price
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Holiday Season Stocks and Commodities Trading / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
The low volumes and relatively low volatility posted over the last several days is proof that many traders are on vacation, or at least biding their time before getting back into the market, whichever side they might choose. And even though I personally took some time off to move my oldest child to college, the closest I've come to a vacation in the last three years, that didn't stop TTC members from getting accurate and timely charts and taking some profits out of the humdrum summer market.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stock & Commodity Markets Analysis and Commentary / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: INO
The STOCK INDEXES - Stock Futures QuotesThe September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1934.55. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1882.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1994.18 is the next upside targets. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 8.25. pts. at 1935.25 as of 5:51 AM CST. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1977.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 1994.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1934.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1886.67. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Stock and Commodity Market Forecasts and Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
TTC Never Sleeps - Just because we haven't been publishing regular free updates doesn't mean TTC has been asleep for the past few weeks. Our members have been actively trading this volatile market from both sides as it fluctuates widely day-to-day, whipsawing many while generally trending upwards off the July 15 lows. And, if you read our last few updates, even if you're not a member, you've probably been making some winning trades, too! Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 16, 2008
De-leveraging of America Does Major Technical Damage to Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Doubling down on bad bets is taking place on the public pension level. It appears that they believe the worst is over and are willing to send good money after bad. What seems to be happening is a scramble to make up for the poor performance of these funds in the last 12 months. The unfortunate problem is that they are heading in uncharted water in the name of “diversification.” Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
The Oil War - Russia Georgia Geopolitics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mick_Phoenix
Analysis Dated 10th August 2008 - Welcome to the Weekly Report. Last week, in the subscriber only edition we looked to see if the roadmap I use had moved forward:
- "A recap of the scenario:
bubble, easy money, inflation in fiat money supply, inflation in commodities and hard assets, inflation, fear of inflation, rising rates, YC inverting, flattening, rising and inverting again, tightening, withdrawal of liquidity, corrections, crashes, talk of stagflation, FEAR, withdrawal of speculative funds, further corrections and crashes, demand collapse.......Deflation."
Sunday, August 10, 2008
The Stocks Relief Rally and Commodities Correction / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The Wall Street Journal: S&P email – “We should not be rating it”
“Some of the most strongly worded emails from analysts questioning their own ratings came from S&P, according to a draft version of the 38-page report, which includes the firms and was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. The unit of McGraw-Hill is the largest bond-rating firm by revenue.
“In one email, an S&P analytical staffer emailed another that a mortgage or structured-finance deal was ‘ridiculous' and that ‘we should not be rating it'. The other S&P staffer replied that ‘we rate every deal', adding that ‘it could be structured by cows and we would rate it'.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
US Dollar and Stocks Olympics Rally Despite Recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The Olympic Games kicked off at 8:08:08 pm on Friday night, the eighth day of the eighth month of 2008. Coincidence? Not at all. The number eight is considered lucky by the Chinese, because in Cantonese (the language of South China) the word for prosperity is “fa”, which sounds like “ba” (eight).
Let the gains begin. Fortune also smiled upon stock markets, with the S&P 500 Index scoring its first back-to-back weekly gain since April as the US dollar rallied strongly and oil and commodities plummeted. The S&P 500's gain since the low of July 15 has been 6.7%, with the Financial SPDR up by 27.8%.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Stocks Soar as Crude Oil Slides / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Equities are on a roll. Looking at the Nasdaq through the daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ), we see that the Q's closed at 47.31, just above the declining 200 DMA at 47.25. This is a very positive sign that today's upmove SHOULD continue Š towards my next optimal target zone of 48.20/50.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Using Macroeconomics to Obtain Long-term Market Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Stathis
As I mentioned in the previous 3-part series on market forecasting, we must look at several variables in order to get a good sense of where the market might be headed. In that series of articles, I discussed sentiment, charting and methods of market valuation. I have integrated some of this previous material with new material here. You can find the other material elsewhere online. Here, I discuss the charting section and extend the discussion to long-term market forecasts.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Financial Markets Monthly Analysis and Stock Pick / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
Following the second quarter earnings season the market lacks conviction and is still trying a bullish “bounce up” in an overall bear trend. I would ride any upward move until the “technicals” signal otherwise which I suspect will be the middle of September as we approach the release of third quarter earnings.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Where Next for Gold, Stocks and Bonds? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
Hmmm? Seems like the gold price itself doesn't agree with the experts views on where it's headed. That's the problem with sticking your neck out. When you get it right you're a genius. The problem arises when you get it wrong.
Unfortunately, at the end of the day, there are no certainties. It's all about a balance of probabilities.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 03, 2008
Gold, HUI and the Banking Crisis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Needham
Traditionally Gold has been used as a hedge when times become tough, in his latest article, John Needham, explores the critical market turning points for Gold and and its relationship to the Dollar Index. He also looks at what may be in store for the FTSE index. - Yvonne Lundon-Marchant - The Daniel Code U.K. and Europe
Gold and its D2, HUI
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 02, 2008
General Motors Massive Loss Signals US Already In Recession / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
As GM goes…so goes the rest of the country. This axiom has been repeated as far back as I can remember. More recently, the use of that phrase has been scaled back to describe Michigan's situation , as Toyota Motors took the lead dog position in the U.S. auto industry.
Today, General Motors Corp., scrambling to adjust its operations and align production toward smaller cars, reported another massive loss as the auto-buying public's shift away from its profitable truck and SUV lines gathered momentum. The losses totaled $15.5 billion, more than $27.33 per share, compared to a share price of $10.69 at this writing. The math just doesn't look very good.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Stock Market Roller Coaster- Forecasting the Markets, Where Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial markets witnessed another roller-coaster week as renewed concerns about the global economy and the health of the financial sector surfaced, resulting in a mixed week for world stock and bond markets, an improved US dollar and continued weakness in oil and commodities.
US stocks plummeted on Thursday after two days of gains as investors' recent optimism was dented by renewed doubts about financials stocks, manifesting in the sector dropping 6.8% – its largest one-day decline in more than eight years.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 26, 2008
Stocks Primary Bear Market Trend and Crude Oils Unsustainable Advance / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Tim_Wood
In late June I posted an article here explaining that Crude Oil was in an unsustainable parabolic spike. Then, on July 15th I had a short-term sell signal that immediately evolved into a sell signal of intermediate degree. The question now is whether or not this intermediate-term sell signal further evolves into marking an even longer-term top, or if it is a mere correction in the path of an even longer-term advance. Monitoring the Cycle Turn Indicator at the various levels will be key at answering this question. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 25, 2008
IndyMac Checks and Stocks Bounce, Commodities Deflate / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The fear, the hassle, the long lines in the hot sun, and now the wait . Many IndyMac customers who are moving their money to another bank won't be able to access all of their funds for more than a week. By law, the other banks must make IndyMac cashier's check deposits up to $5,000 available for withdrawal in one business day. But any amount over that can be held up to nine business days. It is reported that some banks are not taking IndyMac checks at all.
An FDIC takeover of a bank is no fun for the depositors. Even though the accounts are insured up to $100,000, the FDIC can only piecemeal out withdrawals until they have settled their audits. The inconvenience factor is very high. That is yet another reason for doing due diligence on your own bank or credit union before the authorities have stepped in.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
The Most Important Chart In the Investment Universe! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Captain_Hook
Many people are now being rudely awakened from slumber with respect to the effects on prices resulting from inflation , even if they only see the effects (rising prices) and not the cause. More specifically, as the cost of energy shoots higher, the lights are finally coming on for many consumers previously in the dark about what lies ahead. They are beginning to realize that even if prices come down from these lofty levels, they will still be high, never mind about going even higher. So, this realization is beginning to change a lot of attitudes, attitudes that were previously reluctant to accept the reality of the situation. Given, it's taking a lot of doing (i.e. oil at $140, etc.), but one would need be ‘brain dead' not to see (feel) the effects of escalating energy and food prices on personal budgets. Denial has worked for many up to this point, but many in this group will also be the ones panicking later on when they finally accept reality. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Stock Market and Crude Oil at Critical Trading Levels / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Adam_Perl
Over the last couple of months we have been witnessing the outcome of constant aggressive monetary policy. The Fed has used all its weapons to try to keep the U.S economy out of recession, but at the same time they have spurred inflation. With a current fund rate of merely 2%, the Fed has found itself between a rock and a hard place, combating deteriorating economic growth accompanied by accelerating inflation. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 18, 2008
Stocks Bounce as Fannie and Freddie Looking for Fresh Capital / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
July 18 ( Bloomberg ) -- Freddie Mac , the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance provider, is close to removing an obstacle that limited its ability to sell common stock and to increase its holdings of mortgages and securities backed by home loans.
The company is likely to get clearance today to register with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to people with knowledge of the plans, who declined to be identified because the decision is confidential.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Rise in Treasury Yields Could Benefit Stocks, though Flight to Commodities Continues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Interesting that the TLT's (Lehman 20 year T-bond ETF) fell 1.4% on Friday,
which reflects a climb in 10-year T-note yields to 3.94% from 3.83% earlier
on Friday. Yet the stock indices continued to undergo waves of intense long
liquidation.
My guess: that the reversal in the TLTs -- normally an instrument that
attracts buyers during times of financial panic and flight to safety -- is
hinting that the current phase of the plunge in stocks is nearing
completion. The problem is that it could last into Monday or Tuesday, so no
sense in standing in front of this falling sword.
Thursday, July 03, 2008
US Economy and Financial Markets Mid-Year Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Andy_Sutton
I would say that things are downright scary, but I am afraid that would be a colossal understatement at this point. 2008 has been pretty much what we expected and then some. A couple of themes have emerged during the first half of this year that require our attention and careful consideration as we gear up for the second half of the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 03, 2008
Stock Market Forecast- How Low Can the Dow Go? - Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The theme of today's show is, “How low can the Dow go?” I have attached a chart of the DJIA that is looking more probable than when I first made this chart several months ago. When this pattern first became evident, I set it aside as a novelty rather than take it seriously. Today, I am looking at a much higher probability of this chart being fulfilled . Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 01, 2008
Stocks Down, Gold and Crude Oil Up / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Financial markets were a sea of red numbers last week as the classic ‘Fade the Fed' trade played out. The initial reaction to Wednesday's US interest rate decision was neutral to positive, then the selling set in and hardly stopped. Thursday's mini rally did a very poor job of papering over the cracks in the global economy.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 29, 2008
Financial Markets Hit by Credit Market Stresses and Deteriorating Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
T.S. Eliot might have been out by a few months – it looks as though June might turn out to be the cruelest month of the year rather than April.
Renewed fears of inflation and slower growth caused by record energy costs played havoc with global stock markets last week, resulting in the Dow Jones Industrial Average being on track to record its worst June since the Great Depression. As stocks suffered, gold bullion surged and government bond yields dropped due to safe-haven buying.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, June 23, 2008
Forecasts for Stocks, Commodities and Currencies / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar until 5pm Wednesday, June 25 (GMT).
We are especially excited to share this one with you, as EWI has opened its new Financial Forecast Service delivery portal to you. The new portal combines all of EWI's world-class analysis onto one easy-to-navigate webpage. It allows you to toggle between near-, intermediate and long-term forecasts and analysis with ease, including recent archives. And, only during FreeWeek, will you get totally free access with no obligation to purchase anything.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 22, 2008
Sentiment Deteriorates Amidst Global Stock Market Crash Warnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Sentiment deteriorated further during the past week as oil prices rebounded, more bad news in the financial sector surfaced, economic woes mounted and inflationary pressures intensified, compounding already-jittery investors' anxiety.
Status Quo's lyrics “Down down deeper and down” came to mind as global stock markets took a battering. The Dow Jones Industrial Index, for example, plunged by 3.8% over the week to below 12,000 – its lowest level since March. Commensurate with extreme bearishness, short interest on the New York Stock Exchange jumped to an all-time high during the week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 20, 2008
Global Stock Market Crash Warning and Loss of American Financial Privacy / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Washington, DC - Hidden deep in Senator Christopher Dodd's 630-page Senate housing legislation is a sweeping provision that affects the privacy and operation of nearly all of America 's small businesses. The provision, which was added by the bill's managers without debate this week, would require the nation's payment systems to track, aggregate, and report information on nearly every electronic transaction to the federal government. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Economic and Geopolitical Dangers for 2008 and 2009 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Laird
Over the years, I have used gold market behavior to track economic and political trends. The overall effect was a good take on gold markets and on currencies, which was the intent from the beginning.
We have some rather ominous conclusions about the Summer and Fall of 2008. They are economic as well as geopolitical. The actual gold focus becomes more of a point of reference, as it reacts to events that seem to be readying to occur. In addition, we foresee some rather scary trends for the entire world, going into 09. We are not going to cover all of this in this article, but to give a basic overview.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Financial Market Forecasts for US Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have made available to our readership a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar until noon Wednesday, June 25. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Forecasts for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the US Dollar / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
We're excited to announce that our friends at Elliott Wave International have announced a FreeWeek of expert financial forecasting for U.S. Stocks, Bonds, Gold, Silver and the U.S. Dollar from noon Wednesday, June 18 to noon Wednesday, June 25. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 14, 2008
Consumer Price Index: Official US Inflation is Running at 10% / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.8 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The May level of 216.632 (1982-84=100) was 4.2 percent higher than in May 2007. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 07, 2008
Stock Market Tanks as US Unemployment Rate Soars to 5.5% / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The unemployment rate rose from 5.0 to 5.5 percent in May, and nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down (-49,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. In May, employment continued to fall in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and temporary help services, while health care continued to add jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, over the month. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Consumer Sentiment Worst in 28 years- Market Hits Inflection Point / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index was released on Friday, showing the worst reading since 1980. It appears that the press has adopted the language used by the Federal Reserve that deflects blame for the condition away from their policies and puts it back on the consumer. They use the words “inflation expectations” to lay the blame for higher prices on consumers. Do you mean to tell me that there is no inflation, only inflation expectations? Give me a break!Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Financial Markets Impacted by Economic Realities that Continue to Favor Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Chris_Ciovacco
Prior to the holiday weekend the markets learned the median price for existing home sales declined 8% from the year-earlier period. More concerning was the inventory of unsold homes climbed 11% resulting in a backlog which would take more than 11 months to clear based on the current rate of sales. While a record average gasoline price of $3.875 a gallon may have distracted many economic observers, we should not forget the prior positive economic impact related to the housing boom. Approximately 74% of all new jobs created between 2000 and 2005 were related to housing in some way (agents, brokers, construction workers, architects, etc). As of this writing, there appears to be no sector of the American economy ready to step forward and fill the void being rapidly vacated by housing. As a result, calls for an end to stimulative Fed and government policies may have been premature. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 24, 2008
US Banking System in Crisis- Why banks are Not lending? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Here's an eye opener. The attached report from the St. Louis Fed on banks' non-borrowed reserves shows that it has just gone down in flames. According to the chart, the amount of money that banks have in reserve that is non-borrowed is not only at a 50-year low, but has entered negative territory for the first time since these statistics have been kept. Does this mean our banks are now insolvent?
Frankly, I don't have an answer, but this information is very disturbing, to say the least. The FDIC is gearing up for it, too.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Stock Market Euphoria May Prove Premature / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Equity bulls experienced another good week based on the viewpoint that the worst of the credit crisis might be behind us. A further improvement in investor sentiment and increased risk appetite caused market participants to cast aside a mixed bag of economic and corporate data and look across the “economic valley”.
This raises the question of whether the stock market euphoria is premature. Bill Gross of PIMCO ( Money News ) said the recovery is primarily due to federal policy moves to restore liquidity. It won't last long, Gross warns. “Recession, and its vicious-cycle effect on employment and consumer spending, remains a threat,” Gross says. “This recession, though currently mild, and, as of yet, not even officially validated, may not be your garden-variety, father's-Oldsmobile type of downturn.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Global Economy Heading for Economic Slump for 2008-09? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
(Bloomberg ) – “The Federal Reserve's direct loans of cash to commercial banks climbed to the highest level on record in the past week as money-losing lenders increasingly turn to the central bank for funds.” Is this a good thing, as the article implies? Banks are eager to borrow “cheap money” from the Federal Reserve because there isn't any to be had elsewhere. Many financial institutions that are painfully aware of their own bad paper and losses are unwilling to trade paper in the commercial markets due to general distrust among themselves. (“Maybe their paper is more toxic than our paper.”) Instead of money (IOUs) flowing freely between institutions, these IOUs have become the sludge that gums up the works because there is no market for it. The only source of funds is now the Federal Reserve Board, who is growing more concerned about their inability to keep the banks afloat. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 09, 2008
The Hard Facts of Manipulated Economic Statistics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The debasement of the economic indicators by our federal government is finally getting some attention from the public media . All of the indicators, including the money supply, the unemployment statistics and inflation are being “doctored” to make thing appear better than they are. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Euro/Dollar Topping, S&P 500 Stocks Index Bottoming? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Two very significant technical breakouts could be approaching at the moment
that will confirm a near-term top in the Euro/Dollar and an
intermediate-term bottom in the cash S&P 500.
As we speak (Wednesday, May 7) the Euro/$ is pressing towards a test of key
support at 1.5360/40, while the cash SPX appears to be poised to thrust
above its 7-month resistance line in the vicinity of 1421. Should these
breaks occur, the Euro points to 1.5000 next, while the SPX points to 1460.
Monday, May 05, 2008
Financial Markets Signaling Major Turning Point? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Black_Swan
Is the run towards safe-haven assets over? Major threats to financial markets certainly haven’t disappeared overnight. But it appears as though risk-appetite has returned that quickly. Of course, it can also vanish just as quickly. Either way it’s still something that needs to be monitored.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Investor Sentiment Improves on Worst of Credit Crisis Behind Us / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
“The world's favorite season is the spring. All things seem possible in May,” said Edwin Way Teal.
And so it seemed during the past week as we witnessed a further improvement in investor sentiment and risk appetite, supported by the viewpoint that the worst of the credit crisis might be behind us. The end result by Friday's close was strong gains for stock markets (with the Volatility Index at its lowest level since December), a further recovery of the US dollar, a sell-off of most commodities, and a weak undertone in government bond markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 03, 2008
Non-Farm Payrolls- Lies, damned lies and statistics / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The quote has been attributed to Benjamin Disraeli and popularized by Mark Twain. It could be applied to today's Employment Report . The press headline reads, “ Nonfarm payrolls down 20,000; unemployment rate unexpectedly falls.” Folks, these numbers have been massaged to get the “right” outcome.
For example, in April, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased by 306,000 to 5.2 million. This level was 849,000 higher than in April 2007. These individuals indicated that they were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. 5.2 million workers comprise 3.8% of the alleged workforce.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 28, 2008
US Federal Budget Deficit Doubles as Fed Walks a Tightrope Against Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Do we have food shortages? Rice prices hit record highs in Thailand and in electronic trading of Chicago Board of Trade futures during Asian trading hours. This week's 5 percent jump in Thailand rice takes prices to $1,000 a ton, nearly triple their level at the start of the year, intensifying fears of social unrest in Asia . Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Worst of the Credit Crisis May be over as Investors Switch from Bonds to Equities on Inflation Concerns- Part 2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Financial Times: Treasury market mood swings
“The vanguard of US monetary policy, the Treasury bond market, is calling time on further interest rate cuts after next week.
“While many economists expect the US Federal Reserve to continue to cut the benchmark Fed funds rate to 1.5% from the current 2.25%, recent shifts in the interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury bond yield suggest another course.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 27, 2008
Worst of the Credit Crisis May be over as Investors Switch from Bonds to Equities on Inflation Concerns - Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
The last week was characterized by investors increasingly taking the view that the worst of the credit crisis was over. They seemed to be shrugging off further substantiation of the dreadful state of the US housing situation, as they digested the latest round of quarterly earnings reports. The latter ranged from plunging profits from Bank of America (ANC) to a dreadful report from Ambac (ABC) to guidance from Microsoft (MSFT) that failed to live up to investors' expectations.
Stock markets see-sawed as investors assimilated the various economic and earnings reports, with the S&P 500 Index eventually eking out a positive return of 0.5% for the week, thereby consolidating the previous week's gains (+4.3%).
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 20, 2008
Global Stock Markets Recieve Earnings Boost Amidst Bearish Sentiment / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
It's Earnings, Stupid! Or so it seemed during the past week as the stock market took its cue from a host of better-than-feared earnings reports, propelling the S&P 500 Index 4.3% higher – a bigger gain than for the entire 2007. And what a swift turnaround it was after the market got “GE'd” and was in sackcloth and ashes by the close of the previous week! Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Stocks Rally Towards Resistance as Money Fly's out of Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Workers getting fewer hours
The gradual erosion of the paycheck has become a stealth force driving the American economic downturn. Most of the attention has focused on the loss of jobs and the risk of layoffs. But the less-noticeable shrinking of hours and pay for millions of workers around the country appears to be a bigger contributor to the decline, which has already spread from housing and finance to other important areas of the economy.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Stock Market Mega Trend and the Wolf Wave / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
- Wolf Wave and the Future
- Mega Trend and Micro Stock Market Analysis by Peter Eliades
Introduction
The unfolding economic scenery can only be described as one thing: TUMULTUOUS leading to HUGE OPPORTUNITIES. Inflation in anything which is solid and deflation in everything that is paper, so monetary policy can only address one or the other and fiscal reform (reduction of regulatory, or tax, print and spend policies) is never considered. Volatility is set to expand from today's levels and “Volatility is Opportunity ”. As outlined in the 2008 Outlook (See Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com ), the Wolf is afoot in the G7 and the consequences to every investable sector will be PROFOUND!
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Commodities Reversing US Dollar Bottoming- Yorba TV Show / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Here are the topics for tomorrow's television show on www.yorba.tv Thursday at 4:00 pm EDT.
1) It's almost time for the US Dollar to stop its plunge!
As everyone is
aware, the US Dollar has been in a severe decline since 2001. Over that
time it has declined over 41%. The declining dollar helped to pull the
economy out of the 2001 recession by lowering the prices of exports to
foreign countries. But it also caused a lot of pain to consumers by being
the primary cause of the rising cost of fuel. Depressed investor confidence
in the Dollar is causing foreign investors to start selling dollar
denominated assets, which in turn depresses investor confidence even more.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Contracting US Economy to Hit Corporate Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
A sense of relative calm descended upon financial markets over the past week. Although fears about the outlook for the US economy persisted, a perception crept into markets that much of the bad news related to the credit crisis was now out in the open, with the result that the equity bulls had reason to feel rather pleased with their performance by the close of the week.
In his testimony on the economic outlook on Wednesday Fed chairman Ben Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee he thought the US economy would not grow much, if at all, and could even contract slightly in the first half of 2008. Market participants took Bernanke's testimony in their stride, cognizant that he was not telling them anything they had not already feared.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2008
Is Our Financial System Out Of Control? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The financial crisis that started in 2007 had its genesis in the deregulation of the financial markets. This began in the mid-90s when Travelers Insurance Company bought Citibank, forming Citigroup, thumbing its nose at the Glass-Steagall Act , which separated Commercial banks from owning other financial institutions. This led to its repeal by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act that implied that Citigroup would not be held accountable for flaunting the law. Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Bottomless Financial Sector Bottom / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Global exchanges and the 13-hour trading day - The prevailing force-fed sentiment is that the US financial sector has bottomed out, the worst is over, the mechanisms for remedy are here, and time to get back in the water for profound bargains again. Let me rebutt! The financial sector is merely taking a breather in a long death march after the great bond bust and horrific unwind of reckless mortgage creation. Monoline bond insurers are nowhere near properly capitalized to handle upcoming substantial losses, nor are banks with loss reserves. Hundreds of billion$ in overvalued and soon-to-be hit mortgage bonds still have yet to occur. And besides, the housing price decline has not even remotely stabilized. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Nasdaq Breaks Out from Base Formation Whilst Onslaught Against Gold Continues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The Q's emerged from a three-week base formation today, breaking above key
near-term resistance at 43.40/50, and then following through to attack the
next important resistance plateau at 44.50/70. My overall pattern and
oscillator work indicate that the Q's are poised to climb t 46.00 in the
upcoming hours/days, and at that point we will find out if the price
structure has established lows for the year.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Words from the Investment Wise for the Week that Was (23rd March)-Part2 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Continued from Part 1
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (Telegraph): Foreign investors veto Fed rescue
“As feared, foreign bond holders have begun to exercise a collective vote of no confidence in the devaluation policies of the US government. The Federal Reserve faces a potential veto of its rescue measures.
“Asian, Mid East and European investors stood aside at last week's auction of 10-year US Treasury notes. ‘It was a disaster,' said Ray Attrill from 4castweb. ‘We may be close to the point where the uglier consequences of benign neglect towards the currency are revealed.'
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Words from the Investment Wise for the Week that Was (23rd March)- Part 1 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Prieur_du_Plessis
Phew – what a tumultuous week! Once again, the fall-out of the subprime mess had a lot to do with it. For some variety, however, it was not only financial's that were in the limelight, but also commodities that corrected sharply.
Unrelated to St Patrick's Day, the week started off with a sense of fear for a market meltdown after it had been announced over the weekend that the Federal Reserve of New York facilitated the sale of Bear Stearns (BSC) to JP Morgan Chase (JPM) for the princely sum of $2.00 per share.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Market Update: Da Numbas! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
S&P - You didn't need to be a bull back in January to buy the exact low in the Socgen situation and we did, and you didn't have to necessarily be long term bullish to do it again this week. All it really took was to be unbiased at the very moment of that low, which is impossible to do if you are dancing from free chatroom to chatroom looking for someone else's trade or idea. Nor can you do it by listening to other services that have been consistently bearish for the last few years.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, March 20, 2008
DELEVERAGING- Gold and Commodities Teetering on the Brink of a Bear Market? / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold and other commodities plunged below key short-term support levels following Tuesdays US Interest rate cut to 2.25%. The consensus seems to see this as a healthy correction or is this a signal for a potential end of the commodities bull market?
My view for some months has been that the west will move from a period of stagflation (the present) to a period of deflation towards the end of this year. Therefore at some point during this year the commodities bull markets would be expected to recognise this change in fundamentals and peak well before deflation makes itself evident. The major trend expectations are illustrated in the below graph from an earlier article on the current stagflation and future deflation prospects.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Central Banks Liquidity Boost Gives Temporary Lift to the US Dollar and Stocks / Currencies / Financial Markets
By: Ashraf_Laidi
Federal Reserve inaugurated its Term Auction Facility (TAF), the central bank invents a new liquidity driving mechanism calling it Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) through which it lends $200 billion to its primary dealers. Recall, the Fed had just extended its lending facilities to 28 days after Friday's dismal labor report. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Another Roller Coaster Week for the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Congress was busy last week – and fortunately not in our back pockets. Between the baseball steroid issues and interviewing/questioning both the Federal Reserve chairman and Treasury Secretary, you'd think they were really looking out for the country's best interest. Congress is in an uproar over whether Roger Clemens (or his wife) did or did not take steroids and who is lying or just mis-remembering. The collective brainpower that was brought to bear on this important national issue was something to behold. From there they interviewed the Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary – and evidently they believe the economy is a bit worse than originally thought, but by yearend should be back on track.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 16, 2008
US Treasuries Auction Failure Suggests Stocks Dead Cat Bounce is Over / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Some wealthy investors got a jolt this week as Goldman Sachs informed them that they would be unable to withdraw their money from an investment considered “safe as cash.” These investments are so-called “ auction rate securities ,” credit instruments now caught in the latest liquidity squeeze. Banks and brokerage houses have sold these instruments to investors, claiming them to be safe. The fact is, they are long-term securities on which the banks hold weekly or monthly auctions to set prices and interest rates. This week's auction was a failure of major proportions.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
US Fed Interest Rates Cuts Save the World from Financial Meltdown? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Tim_Wood
Just as the equity markets were pushing into their anticipated turn point in late January, the Fed makes a 75 basis point cut of the Discount rate. This was the most aggressive rate cut since August of 1982. The very next week at the regularly scheduled Fed meeting they cut yet another 50 basis points. To hear the spin from the mainstream these cuts were done to save the equity markets from the woes that first began in August. I have heard many of the analysts and commentators explain why the bottom is now in and how the Fed has finally made everything alright.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Funds - The Last Bastion's of “Dumb Money”? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
In recent months, Wall Street has taken comfort in the idea that Sovereign Wealth Funds will come riding to the rescue of banks that are up to their eyeballs in subprime sludge. First Citigroup, then Merrill Lynch and a host of other commercial banks have reported receiving “injections” of capital to help them reinvigorate their balance sheets. Some $40 to $60 billion of new capital has been promised.
After having stepped to the plate so willingly last year, the Sovereign Funds are now having second thoughts. The $8 billion loan to Citigroup made last year was more than likely made to protect their prior investments from an outright collapse. And the Chinese are becoming more sophisticated about their money as well. They are growing resentful that they are being considered the last bastion of “dumb money” for troubled banks. They may be right.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Stock and Financial Markets Major Dangers! Massive Opportunities! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
When the number registrants for our recent online conference eclipsed the 25,000 mark, I was naturally surprised. It was the most widely attended event of its kind in history.
But I am not surprised to see that many of the changes we talked about are unfolding so quickly — new highs in gold, the worst job losses in four years, the biggest consumer retrenchment since 9/11, and the most rapid collapse of bond ratings of all time.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 04, 2008
Too Early for US Recession ? / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Fridays Jobs report of 17000 job losses in January had many commentators declaring that the US is now in recession. However technically a recession cannot be declared until June 08 following 2 quarters of negative growth. Therefore it is far too early with many more months of central bank action ahead of us to declare a US recession.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, February 02, 2008
Manipulation of US Employment Statistics - Revision Higher Next Month? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Minimizing the (un)employment report - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January Employment Situation Report. According to the BLS, the employment situation was “essentially unchanged.” Buried in the report was the offhand mention that we had “a small January movement in nonfarm payroll employment (-17,000).” Small movement? The expectations were for a 70,000 increase!
Omitted from the report was the CES Birth/Death Model , which normally puts a positive spin on the employment report. Not this time! According to this model, all sectors of the economy suffered losses, with the grand total 378,000 jobs lost in January. Maybe this is a statistical fluke, but you can imagine some bureaucrat storming into the statisticians' offices and saying, “Fix it!” There will be revisions in next month's report.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 28, 2008
Stock Market Relief Rally Following US Fed Rogue Trader Rate Cut / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Rogue Trader 2008 - By Thursday of last week, the Monday / Tuesday sell off in European exchanges was increasingly being blamed on the unwinding of positions held by Societe Generale's 31 year old Rogue Trader named Jerome Kerviel.
The amount of exposure that the trader had committed the bank, Societe Generale to is extraordinary at some $60 billions, which is more than twice the value of the bank. After positions were unwound on the quiet so as to avert more major panic selling, the net loss to the bank is some $7.1 billions, this is on top of the $2 billions of losses on US subprime exposure.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 24, 2008
NYBOT Plans to Close Trading Floor - The End of an Era / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: George_Kleinman
“They're not just getting rich…they're getting even”--Trading Places [1983]
There's an electric tension in the air as our heroes, Louis Winthorpe III and Bill Ray Valentine, muscle their way through the crowd of traders lining the New York Board of Trade's (NYBoT) frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) trading pit. The traders are nervous with the anticipation of what's to come, sweating from the heat generated by more than 100 tightly packed bodies. The clerks manning the phones surrounding the pit are on high alert.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Forecasts for U.S. Stock Markets, Bonds, Metals and more! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
One Week of Elliott Wave Internationals Financial Forecasts worth $80 for FREE
(No Strings Attached!)
From Wednesday, January 23 at noon (EST) to Wednesday, January 30 at noon (EST), The Market Oracle visitors can read the latest short, intermediate and long-term market analysis for FREE, from the world's largest market forecasting firm.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Stock Market and Interest Rates Forecast 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
Introduction
The first three weeks of the year started with a BANG and this is set to continue as the public servants wrestle with the consequences of their poor policies. And, instead of creating policies of wealth creation, the result to their decades-long policies of currency debasement and creeping socialism: “Temporary” stimulus plans, front and center with the various public servants trying to outbid each other as to the size of the package.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Stock Market Panic Special / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The US Fed's Emergency interest rate cut of 0.75% to 3.50% to prevent the panic selling of the European and Asian stock markets from spreading to the US markets succeeded in preventing a crash, with the Dow Jones closing just 128 points lower after an opening drop of 450 points.
The current wave of selling was sparked following last weeks results and doubling of losses by Merrill lynch and Citicorp
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Bush's Election Year Tax Cut Gimmick as Wall Street Tumble Continues / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The looming economic recession is getting “deer-in-the-headlights” recognition by the politicians in Washington . The unfortunate response is to offer “sound byte” solutions rather than real economic stimulus. The Bush administration and the presidential candidates are all vying for who can offer the most attractive stimulus to voters rather than offer the best solution for a healthy economy. The Wall Street Journal offers some insight into the dilemma that we face. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 18, 2008
Financial Markets Roadmap for 2008! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: Today, I'm going to give you my updated roadmap to the markets — a general guide you can use to determine the trends in all the major markets I cover.
My projections are based on actual signals from my computer models. I watch these indicators very closely because they tell me when a fork ... a speed bump ... or a U-turn is coming in the markets.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 18, 2008
Stock and Commodity Market Forecasts 2008 - Enormous Investment Opportunities - Part I / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
2008 is going to be one for the record books. Like a roller coaster or thrill ride at an amusement park, the economic and financial ups and downs will thrill you and chill you! The opportunities in this year, and the next ten years, are ENORMOUS and as big as ever witnessed in history as the globe evolves and globalization unfolds. As a billion people in the G7 pay the price for their FAILURE to learn history's lessons, ask questions of their elected officials and demand accountability. Three billion people in the emerging world stand poised to ascend to thriving economies and new middle classes on the recipe of that little known economic school of thought called AUSTRIAN economics. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Stocks and Bond Market Forecasts for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Vacation and holidays have prevented the usual writing of the newsletter, so this will serve as the annual prognostication letter. First, the markets should start the year weak, employment will be poor and bond yields will be at their lowest in 4 years by mid-month. Oh, that has already happened…not bad predicting so far! The rest of the year won't be as easy, especially for financial markets. The persistent news revolving around credit and availability, write-offs and housing inventories should keep the markets on the defensive for much of the year. Last year we predicting a poor market – we were wrong until August. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Stock Markets Tumble on Nikkei 3 Year Lows and Citigroup Dividend Cut Expectations / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES fell $6 from an overnight rally to $911 per ounce just before the London open on Tuesday, while Asian stocks fell and the US Dollar held at 7-week lows vs. the Euro and Japanese Yen.
Japan 's Nikkei fell 1 percent, finishing below 14,000 for the first time since November 2005 after Bank of Japan chief Toshihiko Fukui said Japan 's economic growth will "slow for some time."
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 13, 2008
US Recession, Broadening Stock Market Top and the Commodities Boom / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Stock Markets continued last weeks weakness on the back of further bad news in the financial sector as Merrill Lynch doubled its exposure to bad debts to $15 billion, and we may again see a doubling later in 2008.
The US Housing market continued to weaken as the monthly number of Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) resets continues to expans and not expected to peak until March/April 2008, with further indications of increasing defaults amongst prime mortgages occuring, therefore 2008 could be remembered for the meltdown in the prime mortgage market as 2007 was remembered for the sub-prime meltdown. Therefore confirming expectations of a weak stock market during the first half of 2008.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Banks Doubling Down on Bad Debts As Merrill Lynch Writes Down $15billion / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Merrill Lynch, the third largest U.S. securities firm, is expected to write down $15 billion in the fourth quarter, nearly twice as much as previously announced. Analysts had recently been expecting a $12 billion loss for the same period. Citigroup may face another $14 billion of losses, according to J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America may announce $5 billion of write-downs in collateralized debt obligations.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
2007: The Year of Debunked Financial Market Myths / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mark_B_Rasmussen
- The “WEALTH AFFECT” is real and you can borrow yourself into perpetual prosperity.
- You can spend yourself rich.
- “It is different this time” and not all speculative manias collapse.
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Financial Markets and Economic Themes Remain The Same for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Bill_Bryan
Although our public writings were scant throughout the '07 calendar, we did indeed manage to maintain an active pulse on events, whereby many of our early prognostications ultimately materialized when the final bell tolled. With that said, let's move forward with a few thoughts and observations on what may possibly lie ahead in the forthcoming '08 campaign:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 07, 2008
Contrarian Stock and Financial Market Forecasts 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brady_Willett
With most investors it is usually sub-conscious convictions that ultimately determine the investment path chosen. Formed partly from experience but largely by their character, there is no escaping the veracity of this. To paraphrase Morpheus, "Investor's are slaves. Like everyone, they are born into bondage, born inside a prison that they cannot smell, taste, or touch. A prison for their minds." Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 06, 2008
The Commodities Super Cycle Rumbles Into 2008 / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The commodities bull market continues to roar ahead with gold hitting new highs and crude oil flirting with $100 again, portfolios invested in the resources sectors continue to benefit.Stock markets took a tumble in the first week of the new year achieving a short-term oversold state, therefore next week should see strength.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Credit Crisis Deepens - ATM Withdrawl Limits Next? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Citibank is now limiting ATM withdrawals in New York City , blaming it on “isolated fraudulent activity.” If the fraudulent activity is isolated, why punish all your clients in a given region? This is certainly causing distress among New Yorkers because of the high cost of living in that city. Why not simply increase security on the ATMs? It looks an awful lot like Citibank is experimenting with rationing their cash outflows. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
2008 Investment and Economic Forecasts / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: David_Urban
The US Economy The American consumer has proven to be very resilient over the years. Rumors of their impending demise have been foretold since the beginning of the decade and here we stand at another crossroads. Consumer spending accounts for more than 70% of GDP so while everyone focuses on manufacturing, production, and service figures they overlook the one figure that matters most, retail sales.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
2008 Epic Battle Between Credit Crunch and Central banks Liquidity Flood / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: The year 2007 is closing — and 2008 is about to open — with an epic battle between two of the most powerful economic crosscurrents we've seen in a lifetime:
- An unprecedented credit crunch threatening to strangle the debt-addicted U.S. economy, and ...
- Equally unprecedented money pumping by a Federal Reserve determined to flood the economy with all the cash it needs to overcome the crunch.
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
2008 Financial Markets Forecasts SPECIAL / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Welcome to this special issue of the Market Oracle Newsletter which brings a selection of the best of current financial market forecasts and analysis for 2008.
The Western economies enter the new year battered and bruised by the credit crisis, with fears growing of a recession in the US and the UK housing market having tipped over into a downtrend towards the end of 2007. Questions are being asked whether the 4 year bull markets have come to an end and whether the commodities bull market can continue as strongly during 2008 as was 2007. We look at potential answers to these and many more questions in this newsletter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 31, 2007
Most Popular Financial Market Analysis of 2007 Dominated by the Housing Market Bust / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The analysis and forecasts for the commodity and financial markets for 2008 are coming through thick and fast as the New Year approaches. It is time to delve through the several thousand articles published during 2007 for the opportunity to return to the ten most popular articles of the year. The Housing market dominated peoples interest as the US Housing bust kicked into gear and fears of a similar collapse in other over extended housing markets such as the UK's. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Stock Markets Weaken as Credit Crisis Hits Earnings / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Citigroup is now expected to cut its dividend by 40%. Moreover, management is now expected to increase its estimated write-offs from $11 billion to $18.7 billion. Citi's CEO, Charles Prince lost his job, but not all the fat bonuses he'd collected in previous years.
Merrill Lynch is forecast by Goldman Sachs analysts to have an $11.5 billion write-off this quarter. That's after an $7.9 billion hit and a 94% loss in revenues in the third quarter . Merrill's ex-CEO, Stan O'Neal left with $161 million in his back pocket.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Five Mega-Trends Unfolding In 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: The last 12 months have seen monumental shifts in the interest rate and real estate markets. And if I'm right about where things are headed, 2008 should be just as exciting, if not more.
Naturally, I can't give away the entire store here. More precise forecasts and profitable recommendations are reserved for loyal subscribers to Safe Money Report , who will be getting a potentially lucrative gala outlook issue shortly.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, December 28, 2007
Stock, Commodities and Financial Market Forecasts for 2008 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: I've enjoyed spending time with my loved ones this Christmas here in sunny, South Florida. It's so great to have the whole family together!
My hope is that your home is also filled with warmth and joy this holiday season, and I wish you and your family a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!
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Wednesday, December 26, 2007
EXIT 2007: A Year of Denials of the Bad Loans Credit Crisis and Inflation / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The spirit of the holiday should not be denied despite the mayhem building at an unstoppable clip. For a break, enjoy a cute HOLIDAY SONG with touch of class & soul, even a hint of the Derbingle (Bing Crosby), with a promise of pure good taste (click here ).
Wall Street is in deep sneakers. They are busy putting a positive spin on 2007, which in mid-year unleashed the beginning of an unstoppable nightmare. The first cracks were revealed in gory fashion in the form of subprime mortgages blasting fissures through the entire bank and bond system. The next cracks will blossom into a mindboggling series of shocks next year.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Pop Go the Liquidity Bubbles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
- Pop Go the Bubbles
- Lights for Myanmar, Water for Darfur
- A Half A Trillion Here and There
- Consumer Spending is Up? Wait, Is It Down?
- The Presidential Race
- Family, Christmas, and Home
Consumer spending was much stronger than thought in November, yet Circuit City Stores Inc., Best Buy Co. and other retailers that warned of a slump in purchases. A private report today showed consumer confidence slid to the lowest level in more than two years in December. The stock market chooses to see all things bullish, and so it powers ever upward. This week we take a brief look at the consumer, recent "shock and awe" central bank actions, money supply and more, trying to see how it all fits together.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Real Estate Pro's Head for the Exit as Bush Asks Banks to "Come Clean" on Losses / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The U.S. housing recession has worsened since the credit collapse in August. Because of it, economic growth will slow to an approximate 1% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, according to estimates given by economists to Bloomberg News . President George W. Bush said he's concerned about the housing slump dragging on the economy and said financial institutions must be open about how much they may lose because of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, December 17, 2007
Confusion in The Markets - What Could it Mean? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
From close up, there is no making sense of what is happening in the markets today. Certainly, in all the years of my involvement in and around the markets I have never seen such confusion at the coalface.
One reason, I suspect, is that there are broadly based vested interests at work which are battling for all they are worth to ensure that the infrastructure doesn't unravel.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Bush's Housing Subprime Mortgage Bailout Plan - It's ugly, but it's all we have / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Dow Jones Industrial Averages soared 175 points on the day that the Bush Administration announced its housing bailout plan. Wall Street was wrong. It wasn't something to cheer about. The major argument against the bailout plan is that it keeps free market forces from clearing out all the toxic sludge built up in our housing and banking system. It is argued that the bailout will certainly prolong the pain and could exacerbate the housing and mortgage mess over the long haul. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, December 08, 2007
Subprime Housing Crash Gets Political - The Big Five Year Mortgage Rate Freeze Plan / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The blame game is beginning and fingers are now being pointed at political appointees (usually given their jobs because of massive donations). Roland Arnall, founder of Ameriquest and current Ambassador to the Netherlands is a rather prominent target. “ Indeed, a host of class-action suits have been launched over the last two years which accuse the former Ameriquest of having engaged in predatory practices (the company was sold this year after it settled one suit for $325m, without acknowledging wrongdoing). Some American lawyers and subprime borrowers are now threatening to turn their fire on Mr Arnall as well – notwithstanding his current job in the Hague.”
Henry Paulson has a long and winding road ahead.
Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, December 02, 2007
US Stock Markets Primed For a Meltdown / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
FedWatch: ``The degree of deterioration that has happened over the last couple of weeks is not something that I personally anticipated, '' Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in response to a question following a speech to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. ``We are going to have to take a look at'' the stress in credit markets ``when we meet in a couple of weeks,'' he said. I smell another rate cut. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 24, 2007
The Four Horsemen of the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Andy_Sutton
It's a tough market. It's tough being short because you fear the bounce. It is tough being long because you fear the fundamentals. So where do you go? You can't go into cash because you know it is losing value. It is downright foolish to hold bonds because the only thing worse than holding something that is losing value now is holding something that is likely to lose even more of its value later. Luckily, there is some stability out there, at least from a common sense perspective. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 12, 2007
The Week Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: David_Urban
This week will be interesting to say the least. The large drops were very worrisome but expected in some ways. Internal indicators have been weak in this rally which led me to believe that we would get some sort of a selloff before the year end rally. But timing these selloffs is very tricky.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, November 10, 2007
Risk of Full Blown Financial Crisis - Technicals at a Critical Juncture / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
What we are now watching is no longer an intellectual game for the purpose of making money. It is real, and the stakes are far higher than just money.
In context of my most recent article a couple of days ago, the following two charts show just how critical the juncture is that we have reached:
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 05, 2007
Hyper-inflation Means Gold Is A Win – Win Proposition / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Captain_Hook
Needles to say, Friday was not a good day for stock market bulls. Media types are attributing the fall in stocks to the market finally waking up to the fact the credit crunch is worse than previously thought , and in a sense they are correct. In being more specific about the context of why stocks are actually falling however, from a technical / market internals perspective, with the supportive influence of stock indices puts to support prices having expired Friday, prices fell to better reflect dire circumstances in the economy is a better explanation of what is actually happening. But you will not hear media talking about the options related scam Wall Street is perpetuating on the investing public. This would be bad for business. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, November 05, 2007
The Week Ahead in the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: David_Urban
The US markets remind me specifically of the point in time where Internet stocks were beginning their runs yet not included within the major indices. There was a divergence between the returns made within the S&P 500 and DJIA and those made by groups outside the index. When they were added we entered the final blowoff phase. Expect the same with mining stocks.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, November 02, 2007
Bond Market Meltdown, Real Inflation and GDP - Fingers of Instability, Part 11 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue – 4 Fingers of Instability
- Meltdowns
- The Taxman Cometh, Middle Class Attacks
- Stocks
- Inflation and GDP
Introduction
The markets are rocking: precious metals, commodities, raw materials, energy, interest rates, foreign currencies, the dollar and more are providing opportunities, up and down to the prepared investor. The tsunami of money and credit creation required to underpin the asset-backed economies of the G7 has provided opportunities as far as the eye can see. And the massive sterilization of this same money printing by the emerging world is stoking runaway inflation to surface in every area of the globe and signaling the unfolding “Crack up Boom” (see Tedbits archives at www.TraderView.com ).
Friday, November 02, 2007
What happened on Thursday to the Financial Markets? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: David_Urban
You can say it was a case of Fed hangover. In what has become an odd yet peculiar pattern in the financial markets, the US stock market rushed ahead following the Federal Reserve announcement and then sells off the following day. Thursday's selloff was particularly strong as everyone had a night to reassess the statement and economic data released as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, November 01, 2007
Fear & Perception - The Speed at Which Investor Sentiment Can Change / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Doug_Wakefield
“There is truth deep down inside of you that has been waiting for you to discover it, and that Truth is this: you deserve all good things life has to offer . You know that inherently, because you feel awful when you are experiencing the lack of good things. All good things are your birthright!” – The Secret (2007), 41 weeks in top the five NY Times Hardcore Advice List Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Asset Backed Commercial Paper Still Shrinking As Fallout From Mortgage Crisis Spreads / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
“The ABCP market , which had helped finance the housing boom, fell $4.6 billion to $883.7 billion following last week's $11.0 billion decline, according to Federal Reserve data released on Thursday.
On the other hand, the overall U.S. commercial paper sector grew for a fourth straight week to $1.872 trillion in the week ended Oct. 23, up $6.2 billion from a week earlier, the Fed data showed.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Financial Market Myths Exposed! Three FREE Videos / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International's Market Myths Exposed 3-part video series turns conventional wisdom about the financial markets on its head, allowing you to think independently of the mainstream and call your own shots regarding portfolio managementRead full article... Read full article...
Saturday, October 06, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Analysis - FedWatch: Why the Fed is still pumping Liquidity Into the Commercial Paper Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The credit crisis is far from over. On Thursday the Federal Reserve lent another $28 billion at the Temporary Open Market Window . The total for this week was $43 billion. The pattern of lending is still very active, with many of the loans rolling over on a weekly or bi-weekly basis.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Analysis - A Credit Crisis Is Looming / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
FedWatch: The discount window has moved.
The original $2 billion borrowed at the Fed discount window has been repaid. Two weeks ago, yet another $7.2 billion borrowed by other banks was outstanding. This week, there are no outstanding loans at the Federal Reserve Discount window. End of story…or is it?
The Federal Reserve has another tool called the Federal Temporary Open Market Operations (FOMO), which is used to influence the Federal Funds market. The purpose of FOMO is, “To implement monetary policy, short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements are used to temporarily affect the size of the Federal Reserve System's portfolio and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.”
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Market Outlook - US Dollar Down, Commodities Up / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• CCI breaking to new highs in October
• Oil feels upward pressure until November; target is $85 to $86
• Copper holds above $3.00 and rises to resistance of $3.80
• Gasoline prices soften in October
• Silver lifts to $13.60 to $14.00 this month
• Nickel stabilizes above $12; rebound begins in October
• Upward pressure on gold holds with $750 target, as weak dollar and jewellery season push the metal upward
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 24, 2007
Investment Flash: Hyper-Bearish / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_Lamont
What we think of as ‘money' has been tremendously expanded by the use of debt. Now that fear has entered the credit market, money has become scarce putting pressure on leveraged asset prices. Margin calls are becoming more numerous throughout the system. Central banks, through various schemes, will attempt to reflate the credit bubble. But they will fail because they cannot create confidence.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 24, 2007
Markets Rate Cut Enthusiasm Maybe Short lived / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Regent_Markets
Many traders will be breathing a heavy sigh of relief this week as the economic calendar lightens comparatively. The US interest rate decision weighed heavily on trading action last week. The FOMC announcement had top billing and it certainly didn't disappoint. Many analysts were expecting a 25 base point cut, with much speculation on when the next cut would be. The 50 base point cut took many by surprise and the market reacted with typical enthusiasm.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 22, 2007
The $900 billion "Bin Laden" Options trade Expires / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
On August 29th , a news website picked up on the existence of a gargantuan option trade that had the internet abuzz for the last month. You see, a trade of that size suggests to many that something is afoot. One point of view was that whoever bought or sold that ($900 million) option was anticipating disaster in the markets. Today that option trade expired, worthless. But was it a total loss? Not according to www.moneymorning.com (See “The $900 million Conspiracy Trade That Wasn't.) In the options business, a “box spread trade” can be used to lend someone money that could not get it in other venues and allows the lender (most likely a large banking institution) to keep its money at work. Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 17, 2007
September Financial Markets Review / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Quigley
Despite all the froth and fury, and mantras of doom and gloom, according to Dow theory, the bull market continues. Should interest rates fall on Tuesday it could give new impetus to the upward movement. However, if the Fed disappoints, there could be significant carnage but maybe not enough to change the overall macro positive trend in the transports and the industrials. If the technical position confirms this any pullback could provide a wonderful buying opportunity.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Financial Markets Update: Top of the 9th / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
Like most of the posting in the forum during the week, this update is going to be brief for the simple reason that the market is treading over the same ground week after week. Despite that sinking feeling in the pit of the bulls' stomachs as Friday wrapped up at the lows, the market validated our theme last week by not crashing – the S&P was only off by 17 points, hardly a disaster!Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 07, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Analysis - US Employment Situation Unchanged? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
“Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-4,000) in August, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.”
Unchanged??? If you look more closely at the numbers, the Department of Labor (DOL) had to decrease the civilian workforce by 340,000 in order to achieve that feat. The other trick they pulled out of their hat this month is to add 120,000 fictitious jobs through the CES Birth/Death Model. Neat trick, eh? Could it be that the USA just lost 464,000 jobs last month? We'll never know for sure, but the statistics are underwhelming. The two largest blocks of new hires is health care (35,000) and food service employees (24,000). Meanwhile, manufacturing jobs were down another 46,000 and construction was down 22,000.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 06, 2007
Tactical View of the Financial Markets: A Little Help From Our Friends / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Justice_Litle
Tactical View of the Financial Markets: A Little Help From Our Friends
What would you do if I sang out of tune,
Would you stand up and walk out on me?
Lend me your ears and I'll sing you a song
And I'll try not to sing out of key...
-- Joe Cocker, A Little Help From My Friends
IN BRIEF
- George Bush and Ben Bernanke gave a helping hand to the market last week with their accomodative talk. Lucky perhaps, but also part of the expected market script.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 05, 2007
Stock Market Bargains and Trouble Ahead at the Same Time? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Marty_Chenard
Labor Day is over and investors witnessed a quiet weekend. There were two noteworthy news Headlines this weekend. The first headline was: "Merrill Lynch & Co. cut its earnings estimates for regional banks, citing risks to economic growth.
The second headline was: "U.S. investors are returning from summer vacation to the cheapest stock market in almost 12 years, and some of the biggest fund managers say they're ready to load up on shares of technology, energy and industrial companies."
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Let's Get Back to the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The extra day off – thanks to the hard, back breaking work of the “laborer”, got an added boost from the unlikely duo of Mr. Bernanke and President Bush. While working hard in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Mr. Bernanke indicated that the Fed stood at the ready to provide liquidity to the markets in case of additional disasters in the mortgage market. President Bush, as only a CEO could do, pre-empted his appointee and announced that he was proposing legislation to help all those poor souls who got themselves in too deep chasing the American dream. The pronouncements put some added juice into the financial markets and they recovered all that was lost early in the week – albeit on very low volume.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, September 01, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Analysis - Deja Vu / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
“This is like déjà vu all over again.” Yogi Berra
When I read the following article, I get the feeling the feeling that, somehow, we've been here before. The Wall Street Journal Online printed an article called, “ 'Conduits' in need of a fix .” The article describes a practice at commercial banks of keeping certain assets “off the books” in order to avoid disclosure rules and collect additional fee income. Until now, this has been a very profitable practice for banks. However, subprime mortgages have found their way into these conduits and are causing havoc in the money markets due to the inability to gauge the risk of these vehicles.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Gold and Dow Jones Analysis - Worrying Times / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
That the direction of the gold price has been in a state of indecision can be seen from the following chart. Since the gold price peaked in May 2006, it has been trending sideways, tracing out what appeared to be a Triangle formation. Some weeks ago this analyst thought he saw evidence that the gold price was about to break up out of the triangle. In fact, it did break up briefly – only to pull back again. Intriguingly, the RSI oscillator has been crawling along the 50% level – clearly incapable of pointing a firm direction.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
What to Do Next : 5 FInancial Alternatives To Stocks For These Volatile Times / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: George_Kleinman
In the financial markets, all we know for sure is that nothing's for sure.
The way I see it, financially speaking the stock market doesn't appear to be the place to be right now. Stocks have retreated in recent weeks, but they certainly could go lower, possibly a lot lower. For the foreseeable future, I plan to steer clear of most stocks, investment real estate and any bond below investment grade.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 27, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - The Situation Today is Temporary / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
It is not often Peggy Lee and Wall Street meet, however the market action of the past six weeks begs the question posed by Ms. Lee – Is that all there is? If that is all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing! And stocks did just that, dancing higher as the concerns over housing, sub-prime loans and a liquidity crunch became mere memories. The SP500 is merely a percent away from the closing level of June and three from the May peak.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Bullish on US Treasuries and Financial Stocks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Purely from a technical pattern, the XLF Financial Select SPDR, a sector that everybody is watching, appears to have completed a pullback in the aftermath of last week's powerful advance from 31.50 to 36.50.
Today's low at 33.58, followed by the upside pivot and rally to 34.15/30 has the right look of the start of a near-term advance that should revisit 35.50 at a minimum and more than likely 36.50 in the upcoming hours.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
Expect More Stock and Financial Markets Tension, But Don't Panic! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
LONDON : “Economists said yesterday that turmoil on global stock markets was likely to persist but ruled out a catastrophic crash in share prices that would hit consumers and their pension funds.” This missive came from London by way of Saudi Arabia .
The Asian Times headline reads, “ Panic Attack: Asian markets take a tumble .” Who do you believe? The “don't panic” people or the “panic attack” crowd? Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrials dropped 340 points by mid-day, then rallied to close down only 15 points. Not a bad rescue, eh? Even with the final hour rescue, the Dow is still down nearly 3% this week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 11, 2007
Back to the 1998 Crisis, Subprime's to Impact for a Longtime / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
China - Upping the Rhetorical Ante
Back to 1998
The End of the Quantitative World
Subprime for a Long Time
The Fugu Ultimatum
90 Years and Still Going Strong
In the early fall of 1998, I remember being on a flight to Bermuda from New York. I was upgraded and sat next to a very distinguished looking gentleman. He was going to a conference about re-insurance and I was going to speak at a large hedge fund conference. We hit it off, and began a very interesting conversation, one that still burns in my mind today. It turns out that he was vice-chairman of one of the largest insurance firms in the world, and was a real financial insider, seemingly knowing every big name on Wall Street personally. After he had a few drinks (he was clearly somewhat stressed), he began to talk about the Long Term Capital Management fund and the problems in the markets. He had had a ring side seat at the Fed-sponsored bailout proceedings.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 09, 2007
Financial Markets Critical Signals Updated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: In times like these, when markets are swinging wildly, I pay particularly close attention to my systems and the signals they generate.
Not only have those signals proven themselves over the last 30 years, they also help eliminate emotions from the investing process. That's a key ingredient to successfully navigating the markets.
Indeed, the last time I published my signals they should have served you very well. Here's a reminder of what I said back in May, along with what happened afterward:
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 04, 2007
Volatility Delivers Wake-Up Call to Financial Sphere / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Joseph_Russo
Likely resulting from decades of imprudent financial engineering, the uncertainty-surrounding discovery as to the potential extent of collateral damage from such shenanigans remains immeasurable and unknown.
Similar to those engineers about to embark upon months of intense investigation in attempt to determine cause of the sudden bridge collapse in Minnesota - the omnipotent financial sphere is just beginning to access whether or not the minor structural fractures, (which market volatility has so blatantly revealed) could possibly morph into a sudden and total collapse of similar dimension.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 03, 2007
US Employment Numbers Don't Look Good / Economics / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend up (+92,000) in July, and the unemployment rate (4.6 percent) was essentially unchanged, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment grew in several service-providing industries. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 03, 2007
It's the Fundamentals Stupid / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
Amid the recent stock market weakness, the pundits are virtually unanimous in their claims that good underlying economic fundamentals are being trumped by irrational fear. However, if investors understood just how bad the fundamentals for the U.S. economy really are, they would dump stocks even faster. So, contrary to the rhetoric, it is not that investors are being too fearful, but that they are being too complacent.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Dow Jones Megaphone Bearish Stock Market Pattern / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Brian_Bloom
The following chart shows a megaphone formation. It also shows a sell signal in the MACD, but the RSI is in neutral territory.
A ‘megaphone' or ‘broadening' formation is essentially one which shows higher highs and lower lows. As this defies all logic, it is also a sign of a market which is highly emotional. Typically, this is a bearish formation because it is also a sign of a market spiralling out of control.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, August 02, 2007
Fed Fund Interest Rate Futures and Other Financial Market Signals / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A quick review of signals surely can be both encouraging and confusing. They point to higher physical prices, calmer stock prices, and a continued housing crisis & mortgage debacle. The big banks and Wall Street broker dealers are breaking down very badly. The US Dollar bounce is already running out of steam, hampered by a restored expected interest rate cut. Remember: whatever is vigorously and repeatedly denied is almost surely to occur!!! Deception sells products.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 01, 2007
HERE Come The BUYERS! - The Crack-up Boom Series Part VIII – Final / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
The Crack Up Boom series is exploring the unfolding “Indirect Exchange” (as detailed by Ludvig Von Mises), that dollar holders will be using to exit their holdings now and eventually will be followed by all holders of fiat currency holdings no matter which country is perpetrating the “fraud” of confiscation of wealth through the printing and credit creation process that all such monetary schemes evolve into. The “Crack Up Boom” will drive an inflationary global expansion to inconceivable heights over the coming years. Asset prices will skyrocket as people do what they always do when threatened.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Stock Market Internals Go Negative / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
Will the market rebound this week or continue last week's slide? Will the credit markets stop their turmoil? These are all questions that investors are confronted with by the financial press. In today's "Outside the Box," we will focus our attention on a well-thought out piece by John Hussman, Ph.D. John is the President of Hussman Investment Trust where he manages the Hussman Strategic Total Return Fund - HSTRX and the Hussman Strategic Growth Fund – HSGFX.
In his Weekly Market Comment , John addresses the recent market volatility and puts it in historical perspective, comparing it in duration to that of previous market cycles. We have currently gone almost 1200 days without a 10% correction, the second longest such period on record.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 30, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - The Manic Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Expect the unexpected. Little did we expect that subsequent to a new all-time high in the Dow, we would be talking about the beginnings of a bear market merely a week later. While we have been cautious about the market for some time (some argue too long!), the concerns that we have been expressing about the markets as a whole all came to bear over a few short days. So now what? The economic news last week, specifically the GDP figures, showed an economy that still has some life, however the focus is now exclusively upon housing and borrowing.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, July 28, 2007
Mid-Year Financial Market Forecasts and the Subprime Virus / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
The Subprime Virus
2007 Mid-Year Forecast
Compete With the Pros
When the Facts Change
Credit? What Credit?
global Warming, Maine and San Antonio
As predicted in this letter early this year, the credit markets have finally begun to tighten, as a major re-pricing of risk is underway as a direct result of the subprime markets. The subprime virus seems to be spreading, despite the view a few weeks ago that there would be no "contagion" in the rest of the credit markets. This week we look at the re-pricing of debt and take a rather positive view and explain how a bottom in the credit market is reached. As ugly as it looks on Friday afternoon, it's not all that bad yet.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 27, 2007
Buying the Market Dip? - Let the Buyer Beware / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Doug_Wakefield
Doug Wakefield and Ben Hill write: “Cheap money policies have allowed us to continue to borrow. We have taken this money and maintained or increased our rate of consumption and purchased assets. The swell in dollars has created a swell in demand. While consumption prices have stayed low because of globalization, asset prices have inflated greatly. The primary effect of asset inflation can be seen most clearly in real estate prices, yet the stock and commodity markets reveal this as well.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 27, 2007
This Week in Reality for the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Andy_Sutton
The past few weeks have seen a rude ending to the gala ball which Wall Street, the media and most of America has been attending for the first half of 2007. The drops have come like sudden, swift punches in the stomach. Hard, well-placed and in many cases, almost out of nowhere.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 23, 2007
Global Megatrends and Among all the successes we've enjoyed together ... / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Martin Weiss writes: Among all the successes we've enjoyed together in recent years, one of the most gratifying to me has been the outpouring of positive feedback regarding my online video briefing.
Now, I'm doing two things:
First, I'm getting ready to take advantage of the minor pullback we saw last week in China and other foreign markets — to take action!
And second, I'm providing the transcript of the video for your review …
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Sunday, July 22, 2007
The Market Oracle Newsletter Issue #13 Vol. 1 / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Market Oracle NewsletterJuly 22, 2007 Issue #13 Vol. 1
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Friday, July 20, 2007
An Unwelcome Guest Has Appeared At Our Bull Market Party / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The punchbowl has been refilled several times. The party seems to be going strong. But, what is this? An unwanted guest has walked in and the punchbowl is doesn't look as full as it had just a while ago. Who is this unwanted guest? His name is Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). CDO normally lives on the other side of the tracks, so what is he doing at your party?Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Investors – Will you be a Winner or Loser? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dudley_Baker
In the current markets seems all investors, virtually in the world, are being rewarded with gains in their portfolios.
The U.S. markets as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) and the S&P 500 continue to make new highs as do most of the foreign stock markets, China, Brazil, Mexico, etc.
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Tuesday, July 17, 2007
The Financial Markets Big Picture - The Crack-up Boom Series Part VI / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Ty_Andros
In This Issue
1. The Crack-up Boom Series Part VI Introduction
2. Smoke Signals, aka The “BIG” Picture
3. Years Ending in 7 and What Comes After! Nice, Very Nice.
Foreword - For greater insight into our publication, have a look at the Overview of Tedbits . It helps current and potential subscribers understand our mission in serving you. It also gives a broad description of what's unfolding globally and what you can expect from Tedbits as a regular reader.
1. The Crack Up Boom series is exploring the unfolding “Indirect Exchange” (as detailed by Ludvig Von Mises), that dollar holders will be using to exit their holdings now and eventually is will be followed by all holders of fiat currency holdings no matter which country is perpetrating the “fraud” of confiscation of wealth through the printing and credit creation process that all such monetary schemes evolve into. The “Crack Up Boom” will drive an inflationary global expansion to inconceivable heights over the coming years. Asset prices will skyrocket as people do what they always do when threatened they will modify their behavior and do the things necessary for “SELF PRESERVATION” of their families, countries, economies and their wealth. Let's take a look at Von Mises description of the CRACK UP BOOM once again:
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Monday, July 16, 2007
Nolte Notes - Bulls On Parade / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
It is hard to argue with a bull market – stocks rose on the week breaking through the two-month range that has held the averages captive on better than average volume. The usual giddiness that ensues should carry the Dow through 14,000 (got your 14K hats ready?) before we get a bit of backing and filling “confirming” that the former high end of the trading range is now the market's new floor. Economically speaking, Goldilocks remains in the house (bears aren't home yet!), as the trade deficit widened a bit, but our export business continues to grow (the reason large cap stocks are doing well) and consumer confidence also improved – in the face of higher energy prices.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, July 13, 2007
Friday the 13th, Welcome to the Summer Rally / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Everything you wanted to know about Friday the 13th .
Is it like any other day or is there something about Friday the 13th ? Wall Street appeared to have its lucky day on the 12 th , so what gives today? If you were a Knight Templar in 1307, this day goes down in infamy.
A (not so) surprising decline in June retail sales.
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Friday, July 13, 2007
Three Major Financial Market Trends You Must Watch / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: There's so much going on out there in the markets, I almost don't know where to start. Stocks … bonds … currencies … they've been more volatile than I can remember in a long time.
But when I sort through the confusion, I see there are really three major trends driving the action. These three forces could very well hold the key to your investment performance over the next several months. So I want to share them with you right away …
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Monday, July 09, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - The Wall Street Fire is Contained / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The fireworks in the sky across the nation had nothing on the fireworks on Wall Street last week, as continued takeover activity spurred stocks higher – even in the face of gathering storm clouds (energy prices and bond yields). The fireworks were also in the economic data, as employment gains continued to run faster than expectations and the ISM data from both manufacturers and services also showed economic strength.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, July 02, 2007
Knights of the Round Table: Mapping out the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
This week in a very special Outside the Box we have an investment outlook tour de force. My friend and South African business partner Dr. Prieur du Plessis gathered a group of some of the more interesting investment managers in the industry, along with your humble analyst, and let us have the opportunity to opine on what is driving various markets and their respective implications.
We begin with the U.S. economy, addressing the underlying implications of the real estate market, interest rates, liquidity, and the ever precipitously depreciating dollar, procuring an assessment of these collective market drivers and their respective effects on the U.S. economy, the stock market, bond market, and commodities market.
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Monday, July 02, 2007
NOLTE NOTES - Waiting for the Fireworks / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
Halfway home and we may have learned a few things about the first half of the year that may actually help with the second half. First, the consumer – left for dead when gas prices crossed $2/gal at the pump, then $2.50, then $3 – and much to everyone's surprise, the consumer is still spending.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, June 30, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Technical Analysis: Secrets to Success / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
Did you lose money last week while other traders used the market like a blank check? Did you give into the doom and gloom and short the opening Wednesday morning to just watch the market drain the cash out of your account? Did you make the same mistake during Friday's summer feast, just before the market recovered 13 points in 30 minutes?
If so, you'll be interested in learning the secrets to our success at TradingtheCharts.com, where the traders are unbiased and price action rules.
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Sunday, June 24, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Technical Analysis: Too Many Were Trading the 4th Wave / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
After calling the market perfectly from the June 2006 low all the way to the June 1 st 2007 turn, right down to the exact date, I could just step back and say the top is in and that I told you first. Unfortunately, I have too much reason to believe the ingredients for a perfect top are not yet in the mix but still out in front of us to simply ignore it and walk away. As of this weekend the confirmation needed isn't there. If it appears early next week I will be fast to work on bearish patterns, but not until then.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, June 22, 2007
Bear Stearns Caught in Subprime Mortgages Slime / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Bear Stearns is attempting a $3.2 billion dollar rescue of one of its hedge funds specializing in subprime mortgages. It has offered a deal to several of its creditors of the less leveraged of its two collapsing hedge funds whereby it will assume $3.2 billion of their debt in exchange for an agreement not to seize any of the funds' collateral for 90 days. Merrill Lynch has already seized $850 million of the funds most marketable assets and put them on the market, causing mutual funds and hedge funds holding mortgage backed securities to re-price their assets.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Effect of Rising Interest Rates on World Financial Markets, Currencies and Gold / Interest-Rates / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Laird
In this article, we discuss what rising interest rates will do to world financial markets, currencies, commodities, and gold.
Leveraged markets do not like rising interest rates
With rising interest rates, financial markets are in the beginning of a major trend change. I like to call it a major sea change. For the last 5 years (further back actually considering Japan) world interest rates have been way below historical averages. During this time, unprecedented leverage has found its way into asset and financial markets such as stocks.
Historical average interest rates run about 6%, going centuries back.
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Sunday, June 17, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Technical Analysis - Trader's Paradise / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
Last week reminded our members why they love logging-in each and every day. While the S&P turned out a 25 point gain, we produced four times that amount before Thursday's PPI report as we traded every turn like no other site possibly could have. The year of volatility we predicted in January continued in full force, giving us juicy moves that proved very profitable for members of TTC, but not so much for most others.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Analysis - Don't Say the Crash Word (Yet) / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
Finally, a double top! Or, wait, was it just a pullback in an uptrend?The volatility we promised back in January has been a constant theme this year, and the market continues to punish anyone that is wrong or just has some of that good ol’ bias. “Crash”, the C-word, was once again splattered across the topic lines of many forums and financial groups. You would think after what we went through this year at the March bottom, and last year in June, people would learn to at least give it more than a week before labeling the move.
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Monday, June 04, 2007
Honest Money Financial Markets Wrap - Stocks, Commodities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of consumer sentiment increased to 88.3 in May, from 87.1 in April.
The Institute for Supply Management's factory index rose to 55 in May, from 54.7 in April.
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home resales fell 3.2% to 101.4, the lowest since February 2003. The March report was revised down 4.5%. The index is down 10.2% from April 2006.
Rising mortgage defaults are increasing the supply of houses for sale. Banks and other lenders are raising their lending standards, resulting in home purchases being less affordable to fewer buyers.
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Thursday, May 31, 2007
Metals and US Stock Indices Charts Analysis / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Investmentscore.com
In this editorial we have incorporated long term charts for gold, silver and the Dow Jones Index with a twenty seven year support line.
In the below charts you will notice:
- Dividing two markets together to create a ratio helps us determine which market is outperforming the other market. For example, in the chart above, when the black line heads higher, the NYSE is outperforming Silver and when the black line heads lower Silver is outperforming the NYSE.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Honest Money Financial Markets Wrap - Stocks, Commodities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Introduction
This week's market wrap is going to focus primarily on the precious metals sector. There are a lot of charts, including a couple of the dollar and bonds.
The recent prolonged correction of gold and silver has produced a good deal of angst in the pm community, as the many emails and comments I've received on my website attest.
I will attempt to address the concerns that were expressed. So let's get to it.
First up is the monthly chart of gold going back to the start of the bull market in 2001.
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Monday, May 28, 2007
The Market Oracle Newsletter Issue #12 Vol. 1 / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Market Oracle NewsletterMay 28, 2007 Issue #12 Vol. 1
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Saturday, May 26, 2007
Thoughts from the Frontline - The US Mortgage Market - Overexposed and Overrated / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:
The Chinese Hedge Fund Dragon
Turning Nuclear Waste into Gold
Overexposed and Overrated
Housing Is Weaker than the Data Suggests
Planes, Trains, Automobiles, and We're #30
This week we look at the US mortgage market to see what fallout there is from the subprime mortgage woes. It is both less of a problem and/or more of a problem, depending on your perspective, as I predicted it would be last year. Score one for your analyst, which said score is needed as the stock market continues to rise in spite of my concerns in the face of a slowing economy.
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Thursday, May 24, 2007
Financial Markets Timing Signals You Must Watch! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: A couple times a year I like to give you my roadmaps of the markets. They are based on actual signals from my computer models. I watch these signals very closely because they tell me when a fork … speed bump … or U-turn is coming in the markets.
They are critical signals, and they should not be ignored. They're not always right. But after 30 years of developing and fine-tuning my system, I can safely say that the economic models they are based on are right far more often than they are wrong.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
Honest Money Financial Markets Wrap - Stocks, Commodities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The Conference Board reported that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.5%, the coincident index increased 0.2%, and the lagging index increased 0.2% last month (April). In April, the NAHB's (national association of home builders) index registered 33; for May, it was 30. The trend is clearly headed down. This is not good.
The Philly Fed Index came in at +4.2 compared with the previous +0.2. For April, the Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 88.7 from 87.1. This is good.
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Monday, May 21, 2007
Regulation of FInancial Markets - The Pursuit of Principles / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_Petillo
While many of us have been focusing on mortgage meltdowns, stock surges and inflation indicators, several of our distinguished financial leaders have been looking for ways to improve the marketplace.
Using the argument that rules tend to squash innovation and do little to lure the rest of the globe to our financial shores, the call for more principles and less regulation is quietly making its way out of the backroom and closer to reality.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
The Market Oracle Newsletter Issue #11 Vol. 1 / News_Letter / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Market Oracle NewsletterRead full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Five Forces Shaping the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes: It's almost the middle of the year. So now is a great time to see where we've come from and where things might be headed next.
It's also a great time to take a serious look at everything because the portfolios in my Real Wealth Report are on fire! At the end of Tuesday's trading, my subscribers had combined open profits of $40,383!
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Sunday, May 13, 2007
Honest Money Financial Markets Wrap - Stocks, Commodities and Gold / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today (5/11/07) that the monthly goods and services deficit increased from $57.9 billion in February to $63.9 billion in March 2007.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the U.S. Import Price Index rose 1.3 percent in April, following on the heels of a 1.5 percent gain in March.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods increased 0.7 percent in April. Excluding foods and energy the index price remained unchanged for the second consecutive month.
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Sunday, May 13, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Analysis - Take the Money and Run! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
The S&P closed flat for the week, but as usual, that doesn't mean there weren't some juicy moves along the way. Us unbiased traders at TTC have consistently been on top of every swing, from one side or the other, week after week – and we have the charts to prove it!Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 12, 2007
Thoughts from the Frontline Weekly Newsletter - A Most Disruptive Technology / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: John_Mauldin
In this issue:The World Is Rather Bumpy
Backhoes Don't Scale
The Most Disruptive Technology
A Brief Introduction to Wireless Mesh Technology
I Feel the Need for Speed
The Fastest Rollout of Any Technology Ever
So What Really Changes?
Switzerland, Scotland and Spain
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Monday, May 07, 2007
Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, and Stock Market / Economics / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payroll employment edged up +88,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5%.
There were jobs added in several service-providing industries, including health care and food services, while employment declined in retail trade and manufacturing .
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Monday, May 07, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Analysis - Never Fade Our Friend Fibonacci / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
The markets continue to add on points as the S&P gets closer to its destined target of at least 1556. This week closed above the round number of 1500, leaving us just 50 points away, and I'd bet there are plenty of investors who liquidated their stocks along the 2000-2002 decline and are now wondering why they did such a silly thing as that. The buy and hold strategy that got them into that mess now seems to be working perfectly, now that they're no longer in game.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 29, 2007
America for Sale! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Clive_Maund
Many investors have been taken by surprise by the sudden strength in the broad US stockmarkets, especially given the severe structural problems of the US economy. The breakout to new highs by the Dow Jones Industrials was predicted in a Marketwatch article on 13th April, based on volume studies.
The S&P500 index has not as yet broken out to new highs, but is close to doing so and is expected to shortly. What are the reasons for this sudden strength and to what extent is it an illusion?
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Saturday, April 28, 2007
Stocks & Commodity Markets Technical Analysis - Party like it's 1999 / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Dominick
The markets have totally blindsided any trader or analyst who's clung to a bearish big picture view of the markets since the 2000 high in the S&P 500. But now, 60 points under its 2000 peak, some of them are finally looking to buy! It was only a few months ago that acquaintances within the trading community had every sort of target or cycle that supposedly should have halted this advance about a hundred points lower. Now, they ask if it can extend. Once again, this is Mrs. Market doing her job well oh so well.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 27, 2007
Churning Stock Market and Gold, Silver Bullion Positions / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Roland_Watson
The quick drop in silver this week seemed to have caught a few off guard to the extent that talk of manipulation pervaded the air. However, The Silver Analyst had already suggested a sell off in silver last weekend to subscribers and was not taken by surprise by current events.
However, in the light of that weekend comment about a silver price correction, I was asked a question about whether to sell silver stocks. That is a natural enough question which I answered but which I want to expand on here. If like me you believe we are still in a primary bull market for silver, then you may want to consider one or two matters before churning a stock or bullion position.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Nolte Stock Market Notes - Equity Markets March to a Different Drummer / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
What scared the markets just a month ago now is merely a blip on the computer screen. China's economic growth rate far surpassed economists' guesses and the markets looked to be taking a tumble on the news, however earnings reports were better than the “low ball” estimates from the street and after a brief decline, the markets put on a show to new all-time highs for the Dow.
While the other markets are tracking a bit lower, the gains are nonetheless significant. China and Japan have both indicated that they would be raising interest rates (as they did a month ago) to stem their rampant markets, however after being fooled last month, investors took the cue to add to existing positions. The housing market remains weak and much of the economic data out recently failed to meet initial estimates, but the equity markets continued their march to a different drummer.
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Monday, April 23, 2007
Financial Markets Review - Sell in May and Go Away / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The scene is being set for the next anticipated stock market tumble to begin sometime over the coming two weeks, as we draw nearer to traditionally the weakest period for the stock markets, May to July.
The Stock markets have all rallied, the Dow hitting a new all time high, the FTSE hitting a new multi-year high and China's Shanghai index off again on another parabolic run. The dollar took another tumble on weakening economic activity and interest rates across the world are on the rise on the back of soaring inflation. The update to the summary of financial market forecasts (22nd April), illustrates the intermarket relationships that that are building up to the next sell off primed to occur as we go into May 07.
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Monday, April 23, 2007
Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, Bonds, Currencies and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The Labor Department reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI advanced 0.6% in March, following a 0.4% increase in February.
Overall energy costs increased 5.9% in March, with the index for petroleum-based energy up 10.1% and the index for natural gas and electricity up 1.3%. Healthcare was up 3.96%.
Electric Rates on the Rise
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Thursday, April 19, 2007
Are We Ready for Another Yen Carry Trade Stock Market Plunge ? / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Christopher_Laird
With the Asian markets all down heavily last night, and the Yen strengthening again, I thought to talk about another possible Yen carry related market sell off.
China bubble trigger
A month or so ago, Premier Wen of China said that their manufacturing and financial bubbles were unsustainable and out of control. This was in light of recent financial tightening in China, increasing reserve requirements for banks to over 10% now, and raising interest rates moderately. It is important to realize that China is determined to do something about their financial bubbles.
Tuesday, April 17, 2007
Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, Bonds, Currencies and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy
The Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary index of sentiment declined to an eight-month low of 85.3 in April from 88.4 a month earlier.
Producer prices increased 1% in March. The core rate remained unchanged. The U.S. Trade deficit narrowed to 0.7% in February.
Producer Prices were up 3.2% year over year. March Import Prices were up 2.8% year over year. March's Fiscal Deficit jumped 12.9% to $96.27 billion.
The G7 meet this weekend to determine the course of world affairs. Let's hope they get it right, as it is quite a bit of responsibility to lay on a group of just seven men, but alas that's how it's done. They are sort of a counsel of Elders, if you will. And who is El?
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Monday, April 09, 2007
Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, Bonds, Currencies and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
March ISM's factory gauge came in at 50.9 down from 52.3 the previous month. It remains just barely above the important 50 level. Most of the internal figures were weak as well.
The new orders index fell to 51.6 from 54.9. The Production Index fell to 53 from 54.1 and the Employment Index fell to 48.7 from 51.1. Even the Prices Paid Index fell to 65.5 from 69.
The ISM's non-manufacturing index fell to 52.4 in March, the lowest level in almost four years. Not the best of reports.
The Labor Department reported the jobless rate fell to 4.4%. Employment increased 180,000 that followed an 113,000 rise in February.
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Friday, April 06, 2007
The Private Equity Bubble - When smart money does dumb things … / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes : During the housing bubble, a lot of lenders lost their minds. It was as if some mass psychosis took over even the experienced executives, convincing them to do exceedingly dumb things.
They didn't bother checking borrowers' incomes or assets …
They didn't care if the loan covered the entire value of the house …
And they weren't the least bit concerned that all kinds of exotic mortgages were being doled out to people with horrible credit histories.
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Monday, March 19, 2007
Nolte Notes - Financial Markets attempting to make a bottom in the short-term / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Paul_J_Nolte
The issue du jour has been alternating between the sub-prime mortgage “contagion” and China trying to slow their economic growth and by extension the speculation in their markets. Banks, brokerage firms as well as loan companies directly involved in the mortgage business are being affected, however no one is quite sure how pervasive the problem is (or can be) and ultimately the impact upon the consumer and the economy.
Retail sales came in below expectations as weather was cited as a problem (what IS good shopping weather?) and brokerage earnings reports outlined some problems with their sub-prime mortgages – but little else was disclosed. China is a whole separate issue, as their local market has doubled in less than a year and the government has hiked both interest rates (again this weekend) and increased investment requirements for speculation.
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Monday, March 19, 2007
Commodities Market Wrap - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Mining Stocks / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad asked to address the United Nations Security Council, reportedly causing speculators to assume that no reduction in Iranian oil supplies will occur for military or "diplomatic" reasons. Subsequently, crude oil fell to a six week low.
Prices are down 4.9% for the week, and are 10% lower compared to a year ago. Natural Gas fell 2.2% this past week.
Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman stated that the government plans on refilling the strategic oil reserve as early as April. The U.S. Energy Department plans to buy up to 4 million barrels of crude oil to replace 11 million barrels sold from the strategic petroleum reserve in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.
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Sunday, March 18, 2007
Financial Markets Wrap - US Economy, Bonds, Currencies and Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Economy - The Labor Department reported a 0.4% increase in the consumer price index, which followed on the heels of a 0.2% increase in January. Core prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2%, and 2.7% from one year ago. Overall prices are up 2.4% from last year.
Food prices comprise about 20% of the CPI. They increased 0.8%, the most since April 2005, after a 0.7% rise in January.
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Sunday, March 18, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Review - More weakness expected this week / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The corrective stock market rally continued into Monday with targets of 50% of the decline from the highs. The Dow hitting 12,350 on Monday and the FTSE enjoying a morning rally on Tuesday to just shy of 6280. Tuesday evenings article - The Corrective Rally is over as the Stock Markets tumble on more Subprime bad news Summarised targets for the current down leg as follows -
FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 is targeting 6000, there is a strong probability of the FTSE holding 6000 (5990 low). Further downside appears limited in the immediate down swing.
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Mortgage Foreclosures and Housing Bust to result in US Interest Rate Cuts / Economics / Financial Markets
By: Jim_Willie_CB
A preface is in order, to honor Sir Alan Greenspan. The housing bust and the mortgage finance debacle have his signature on them. So far he is still revered, for some odd reason, probably basic ignorance. Some called Clinton the “Teflon Man” which more deservedly belongs to Greenspan. Heck, they both earned the title; they can wear it with the ignominy it so justly is associated with.
GREENSPAN SIGNATURE - The current mess of mortgage defaults and foreclosures testifies to the venerable and highly acclaimed serial bubble inflation engineer Greenspan's leadership and counsel as destructive in high order. Alan must be shuddering and cringing at the extreme damage to banking balance sheets, the spate of lending institution collapses, and the contagion within banks. He urged millions of US homeowners to rush into adjustable rate mortgages, so as to reduce their monthly costs. Here is an actual quote from Greenspan, extolling the virtues (vultures) of innovative mortgages.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Rise of the (Selling) Machines - Threat of Automated Trading to the Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Michael_J_Panzner
In the popular 1984 film, The Terminator , current California governor and former actor Arnold Schwarzenegger plays a cyborg sent back in time to eliminate the mother of future leader John Connor before he could be born. Single-minded and highly developed, the robotic killer relentlessly pursues his intended prey throughout the movie, despite strong resistance fromF the hero's supporters, although the good guys eventually win out in the end.
While the story is pure fantasy, some may not realize that in the stock market there are the equivalent of dangerous man-made automatons lurking in every corner. Often technology-based, they are powerful, sophisticated, and difficult to keep under complete control. Yet they are exerting a growing and pervasive influence on prices. Unfortunately, these potential share-price assassins, if they were to be suddenly unleashed all at once, represent a Terminator-like threat to financial markets, especially if conditions are just right.
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Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Stock Market Bounce looks like a Bear Trap, Gold Thoughts / Commodities / Financial Markets
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
GOLD THOUGHTS : Equity markets have begun a demonstration of long known fact, even a dead cat bounces when thrown into the air. Market corrections can certainly include days of temporary relief. A possible end to the correction is being called by some. More likely it is a bear market trap. Such commentators, having failed to anticipate end of liquidity driven rally, now have ability to identify bottoms. Real ability or expectational biases?
Even Mark Hulbert, with his dubious analysis of newsletters, has suddenly been able to find statistics suggesting end of equity correction may be near. Common characteristic of these gurus is that they have something to sell you, something that failed to suggest extracting your money from paper equity markets before the slide.
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Monday, March 12, 2007
In depth Market Wrap - US Economy and Financial Markets / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
The Economy : Jobs
The economy added 97,000 jobs in February, which was below last month's 146,000 increase. The employment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.6%.
Employers in the U.S. added 97,000 jobs last month, less than in the prior month, as a slowing housing market and the return of winter weather prompted job cuts in construction. The unemployment rate fell.
Construction reported the largest loss of jobs in 15 years, reflecting the weakness in the housing and real estate markets. Builders let go off 62,000 workers.
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Sunday, March 11, 2007
Weekly Financial Markets Review -The Corrective Rally Continues - The Worst is Not Over ! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The week saw the Stock Markets rally, the Dow ended up at 12,276, FTSE 100 index at 6246. The asian stock markets, including China also rallied. In our analysis immediately following China's mini crash, I suggested that the Stock Markets would make a bottom during the week and start to rally towards targets of 12,525 for the Dow Jones and 6300 for the FTSE. Following which another down leg would begin. Stock Markets follow China Lower - What to expect next as China's crash continues in Asia 27th Feb 07.
Back to the week that was -
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Friday, March 09, 2007
Stock Market Rallies after last weeks slump - The Worst is Far from Over! / Stock-Markets / Financial Markets
By: Peter_Schiff
With today's relatively benign jobs report coming in close to the consensus forecast and with the stock market comfortably above Monday's low, most on Wall Street are breathing a sigh of relief. The popular position is that last week's turmoil was simply a speed bump on the road to greater prosperity, and that a recession and a bear market are low probability events. As you may imagine, I beg to differ.
