Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Extreme Technical Levels Point to Stocks and Crude Oil Snapback Rally

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Dec 19, 2008 - 11:45 AM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Stock-Markets Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs we speak, the VIX is trading BELOW its 11/04 low at 44.25, which COULD imply that the e-SPH (890.25) and cash S&P 500, including the SPDRs (AMEX: SPY), are about to take off to the upside. As I noted on Thursday while the VIX was at 44.62 and the e-SPH at 903.50: "Purely from a chart perspective, the pattern that has developed-- and its near-future implications-- suggests that the VIX has lower values directly ahead-- possibly acutely lower when compared to where it has come from since late-October.


Let's notice that during Oct.-Dec. the VIX has carved-out a massive top formation that is testing key intermediate term support between 46.00 and 44.25, which if violated, should trigger downside acceleration towards EITHER 36.50 to satisfy a "swing" target off of the Oct. high OR 23.00 to satisfy the optimal breakdown target off of the massive top formation. As we speak, the VIX is nearing a full-fledged test of its Election Day low at 44.25, while the e-SPH remains about 11% beneath its Election Day high. If the VIX breaks and sustains beneath support, then I have to think that it will continue lower-- and that it will coincide with more additional strength in the equity market. Perhaps a sharply falling VIX will coincide with a retest of the Election Day High in the e-SPH at 1006.25? "

Let us also look today at oil, as today the front month Jan. contract expires. On Sunday evening the front month will become February, which currently is trading about $5 per bbl, or 15% ABOVE the front month. All of us will be interested to see if the Feb. contract preserves a $40 "handle," or if the market continues to dump product on the futures market to alleviate near term oversupply (lack of demand) within a possibly severely slowing global economy.

Purely from a technical perspective, the US Oil Fund ETF (NYSE: USO) is screaming for a recovery rally (that holds), but as we have seen and experienced during the vertical assault on bond prices since mid-Nov., during "special" and acute fundamental situations-- that are unprecedented-- the technicals take a back seat . . . until they don't (which should be very soon!) MJP 12/19/08 9:25 AM ET ($34.85)

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

© 2002-2008 MPTrader.com, an AdviceTrade publication.  All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in