Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24
At These Levels, Buying Silver Is Like Getting It At $5 In 2003 - 28th Oct 24
Nvidia Numero Uno Selling Shovels in the AI Gold Rush - 28th Oct 24
The Future of Online Casinos - 28th Oct 24
Panic in the Air As Stock Market Correction Delivers Deep Opps in AI Tech Stocks - 27th Oct 24
Stocks, Bitcoin, Crypto's Counting Down to President Donald Pump! - 27th Oct 24
UK Budget 2024 - What to do Before 30th Oct - Pensions and ISA's - 27th Oct 24
7 Days of Crypto Opportunities Starts NOW - 27th Oct 24
The Power Law in Venture Capital: How Visionary Investors Like Yuri Milner Have Shaped the Future - 27th Oct 24
This Points To Significantly Higher Silver Prices - 27th Oct 24
US House Prices Trend Forecast 2024 to 2026 - 11th Oct 24
US Housing Market Analysis - Immigration Drives House Prices Higher - 30th Sep 24
Stock Market October Correction - 30th Sep 24
The Folly of Tariffs and Trade Wars - 30th Sep 24
Gold: 5 principles to help you stay ahead of price turns - 30th Sep 24
The Everything Rally will Spark multi year Bull Market - 30th Sep 24
US FIXED MORTGAGES LIMITING SUPPLY - 23rd Sep 24
US Housing Market Free Equity - 23rd Sep 24
US Rate Cut FOMO In Stock Market Correction Window - 22nd Sep 24
US State Demographics - 22nd Sep 24
Gold and Silver Shine as the Fed Cuts Rates: What’s Next? - 22nd Sep 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks:Nothing Can Topple This Market - 22nd Sep 24
US Population Growth Rate - 17th Sep 24
Are Stocks Overheating? - 17th Sep 24
Sentiment Speaks: Silver Is At A Major Turning Point - 17th Sep 24
If The Stock Market Turn Quickly, How Bad Can Things Get? - 17th Sep 24
IMMIGRATION DRIVES HOUSE PRICES HIGHER - 12th Sep 24
Global Debt Bubble - 12th Sep 24
Gold’s Outlook CPI Data - 12th Sep 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Financial Markets See More Contractions

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Dec 08, 2008 - 08:14 AM GMT

By: Regent_Markets

Stock-Markets Markets received a jolt of pain on Friday, as US employment numbers came in at -533,000, way beyond consensus estimates. The figures were the worst for three decades and are yet another instance to add to the ever growing pile of “once in a generation” type extremes that we've seen in 2008. Friday’s numbers were predicted by just one outfit (ING) and that was seen as an outlier. However, as a sign, that perhaps markets are becoming inured to the dreadful economic news US markets actually managed to rally into the close on Friday. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished down on the week, but well above the week’s lows.


Last week’s announcement that the US was officially in recession was a bit of a non event. A recession has been in train for both the UK and US economies for some time, but optimism or fear over its severity has been waxing and waning over recent weeks, as world governments released various stimulus packages. Last week was certainly not for the optimists, with investors flying to the safety of US Treasuries, pushing the benchmark yield down to record lows. Friday NF Payroll numbers confirmed what many Americans are already experiencing; the number of people in private employment is falling. Like readily available credit, jobs are being squeezed on both sides of the Atlantic.

The latest UK purchasing managers’ survey showed that UK manufacturing fell at a record pace in November. The falls mirror similar record declines in US manufacturing which also contracted the most since 1992. The outlook for the UK in particular looks grim, with mortgage lending falling to near record lows. The poor manufacturing data and dramatic interest cuts sent the pound sharply lower against most major currencies. Last week, the pound hit 0.87250 against the Euro, its lowest level since the introduction of the European single currency.

Demand for US Treasuries shows no signs of stopping. In addition, sovereign credit default swaps have gone through the roof, reflecting both the cost of the planned stimulus packages and the growing severity of the global recession. At the start of the year, Credit default spread for the UK were just 8.9. Last week they moved higher than 125, meaning it would cost $125 to insure a $10,000 sovereign investment. Germany currently has the lowest CDS levels, while Argentina has rocketed to over 4,000. Russia is also elevated with CDS levels approaching 800. With its extreme moves, the bond market is telling one story, while the stock market recovery on Friday told another slightly less apocalyptic tale.

Resource and energy stocks were under pressure as crude prices continue to slide. Oil prices made a century of sorts last week, at below $47, oil prices have now fallen over $100 from their peak in July. The decline is all the more remarkable when you consider the fact that oil started the year under $100. Crude eventually closed the week at just above $40, though oil majors such as BP, Shell and Exxon Mobil managed to hold up relatively well. The divergence between oil prices and oil majors may possibly be a function of oil producers being able to extract good margins, as the price at the pumps hasn’t fallen to the same by the same severity as the price of crude.

Next week’s stand out economic announcements include UK PPI on Monday, and manufacturing production on Tuesday. US pending home sales are released on Tuesday afternoon with trade balance and unemployment claims out on Thursday. With Christmas around the corner, US retail sales will be followed closely on Friday, as will the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. When markets go up on bad news, it can be a positive sign that buyers are willing to step in and take control. Friday’s rally brought the S&P 500 just shy of 900 and while a rally from here is very possible, there may be some overhead resistance above 900. A one touch trade predicting that the S&P 500 will touch 899 at any time during the next 9 days could return 15%.

By Mike Wright
Tel: +448003762737
Email: editor@my.regentmarkets.com
Url: Betonmarkets.com & Betonmarkets.co.uk

About Regent Markets Group:   Regent Markets is the world's leading fixed odds financial trading group. Through its main multi-awarding winning websites, BetOnMarkets.com and BetOnMarkets.co.uk, it has established itself as the leading global provider of a unique, powerful way to trade the world's major financial markets. The number, length and variety of trades available to our clients exists nowhere else in the world.   editor@my.regentmarkets.com Tel  (+44) 08000 326 279

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Do your own due diligence.

Regent Markets Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in