Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 19th December
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Dec 19, 2008 - 10:12 AM GMTBy: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-
term. If March renews the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1181.77 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
The March NASDAQ 100 was down 12.50 pts. at 1213.00 as of 6:01 AM CST. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1254.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1321.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1216.05. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1181.73. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The March S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral again signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off November's low, the reaction high crossing at 947.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 871.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 918.50. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 947.60. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 873.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 871.32. The March S&P 500 Index was down 8.30 pts. at 884.20 as of 6:04 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight due to profit taking as they consolidate some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 141-28. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 136-16. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 132-26.
ENERGY MARKETS
January crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, psychological support crossing at 35.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.75 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 42.34. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 45.75. First support is the overnight low crossing at 35.25. Second support is psychological support crossing at 35.00.
January heating oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 75% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 126.32 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.33 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 144.48. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 154.33. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 136.57. Second support is monthly support crossing at 126.32.
January unleaded gas was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends Thursday's decline, this month's low crossing at 89.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 116.73 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 104.56. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 113.72. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 95.65. Second support is this month's low crossing at 89.50.
January Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.598. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 5.249 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.011 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.598. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.011. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 5.458. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.249.
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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rebound off the 62% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 78.89. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a low is in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.34 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 76.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.56. Second resistance is broken support marked by the reaction low crossing at 85.34. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 78.77. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 76.56.
The March Euro was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.083 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the July-November decline crossing at 148.780 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 146.870. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 148.780. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135.520. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131.638.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.5544 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1.5700. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.6066. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 1.4856. Second support is this month's low crossing at 1.4500.
The March Swiss Franc was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .8542 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the overnight rally, the 87% retracement level of the March-November decline crossing at .9701 is the next upside target. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at .9633. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at .9701. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8731. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .8542.
The March Canadian Dollar was sharply lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.69 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-December decline crossing at 86.29. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 84.55. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 86.29. First support is the 20-
day moving average crossing at 80.69. Second support is this month's low crossing at 76.93.
The March Japanese Yen was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends the rally off November's low, .11500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10847 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at .11492. Second resistance is .11500. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .11049. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10847.
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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 807.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends this month's rally, October's high crossing at 938.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 883.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 938.80. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at 823.80. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 807.50.
March silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.169 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 11.700 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 11.615. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 11.700. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 10.517. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 10.169.
March copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 106.78 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.05 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.36. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 150.05. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 128.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.78.
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 11.750 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.047 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.
March cocoa closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's breakout above this summer's downtrend line. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the September 29th gap crossing at 27.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.94 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed unchanged on Thursday and the mid-range close set the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 12.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11.48 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March cotton closed lower on Thursday and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.00 would confirm that a bottom has been posted. If December renews this month's decline, November's low crossing at 39.23 is the next downside target.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
March corn was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this month's rally, the 25% retracement level of the decline off July's high crossing at 4.33 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.58 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 4.02 3/4. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing at 4.33 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.58 1/2. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.37.
March wheat was lower overnight due to profit as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near-term. The low-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session opens later this morning. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 5.78 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 12 1/4-cents at 5.90 1/2.
Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.00 then 6.23 are the next upside targets. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2 would temper the friendly outlook in the market.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 12-cents at 6.31.
March Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends this week's rally. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 6.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.90 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 8.99 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.47 1/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 8.77 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 8.99 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.47 1/4. Second support is this month's low crossing at 7.79 1/4.
March soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish but overbought warning bulls to use caution as a short-term top might be in or is near. If March extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 268.00 is the next upside target. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 254.40 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.
March soybean oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it extends the narrow trading range of the past two weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the reaction high crossing at 32.47 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008-rally crossing at 28.43 is the next downside target.
LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $0.15 at $62.47.
February hogs closed lower on Thursday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 60.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 65.40 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last Thursday's gap crossing at 63.05. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.00. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 61.55. Second support is October's low crossing at 60.50.
February bellies closed up $2.00 at $88.97.
February bellies closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.58 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 93.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 85.62 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
February cattle closed down $1.17 at 85.70.
February cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20-day moving average. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 84.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
January feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $92.40.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near- term. If January extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 101.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10- day moving average crossing at 88.83 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
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