Stock, Commodities and Currency Futures Markets Analysis 9th December
Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Dec 09, 2008 - 08:07 AM GMTBy: INO
The March NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends last Friday's rally above the 20-day moving average. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Monday's close above the reaction high crossing at 1201.00 confirms that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 1321.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1158.47 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the index.
The March NASDAQ 100 was up 8.50 pts. at 1223.00 as of 6:02 AM CST. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 1240.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1244.75. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1166.92. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 1097.00. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by March NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.
The December S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Yesterday's close above last Monday's high crossing at 897.50 confirms that a bottom has been posted. If December extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 962.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 919.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 962.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 870.22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 856.81. The December S&P 500 Index was up 4.90 pts. at 909.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the December S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
INTEREST RATES
March T-bonds were lower overnight as they consolidate some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 130-26 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 135-02. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 130-26. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 125-10.
ENERGY MARKETS
January crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.32 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends the decline, psychological support crossing at 40.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 47.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 51.32. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 40.50. Second support is psychological support crossing at 40.00.
January heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.06 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this fall's decline, monthly support marked by the 75% retracement level of the 1999-2008-rally crossing at 126.32 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 158.91. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 170.06. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 141.85. Second support is monthly support crossing at 126.32.
January unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near.
Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.88 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 1999-2008 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 73.73 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 105.22. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.88. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 89.50. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 1999-2008 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 73.73.
January Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 5.249 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.409 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.206. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.409. First support is Monday's low crossing at 5.484. Second support is monthly support crossing at 5.249.
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CURRENCIES
The March Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 87.22. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. It will take closes below the reaction low crossing at 85.34 to confirm that a double top with October's high has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, November's high crossing at 89.74 then weekly resistance crossing at 90.27 are the next upside targets. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.58. Second resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 88.71. First support is Monday's low crossing at 86.41. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 85.34.
The March Euro was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's rally but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 127.614. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 132.350 are needed to confirm that a bottom low has been posted. If March renews last week's decline, October's low crossing at 123.510 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 129.430. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 130.680. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 125.420. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 124.000.
The March British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. If March extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 1.4004 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 1.5544 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.4973. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1.5544. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 1.4500. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.4004.
The March Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at .8071 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at .8495 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .8330. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at .8495. First support is last Friday's low crossing at .8201. Second support is November's low crossing at .8185.
The March Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below November's low crossing at 77.00 would renew this fall's decline while opening the door for additional weakness into early-December. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.96. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 80.23. First support is November's low crossing at 77.00. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 76.93.
The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .10583 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at .11055 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at .10954. Second resistance is October's high crossing at .11055. First support is the 10-
day moving average crossing at .10716. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .10583.
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PRECIOUS METALS
February gold was steady to slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of last week's decline. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 765.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 862.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 783.80. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 834.50. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 741.20. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 731.80.
March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. From a broad perspective, March remains locked in this fall's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 10.775 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last Monday's decline, October's low crossing at 8.510 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 10.400. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 10.705. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 9.659. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 9.125.
March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 173.35 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted. If March extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 106.78 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 155.46. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 159.93. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 135.60. Second support is monthly support crossing at 106.78.
FOOD & FIBER
March coffee closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last week's decline, monthly support crossing at 9.133 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.316 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
March cocoa closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends November's rally, the reaction high crossing at 23.56 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.92 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed sharply higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. If March extends last week's decline, October's low crossing at 10.44 is the next downside target. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
March cotton closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 43.60. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If December extends last week's decline, November's low crossing at 39.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 47.91 would temper the bearish outlook.
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GRAINS Agricultural Commodities Analysis
March corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this fall's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2005-2008-rally crossing at 2.59 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.45 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.05 1/2. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2005-2008-rally crossing at 2.59 3/4.
March wheat was fractionally higher overnight as it extends Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The high-range close overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session opens later this morning. If March extends the decline off August's high, the May 2007 low on the continuation chart crossing at 4.68 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.33 3/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
March Kansas City Wheat closed up 13 3/4-cents at 5.17.
Kansas City Wheat gapped up and closed higher on Monday leaving a one-day island bottom on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If March extends this summer's decline, the May 2007 low crossing at 4.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.65 are needed to confirm that a bottom has been posted.
March Minneapolis wheat closed up 17 1/4-cents at 5.68 1/2.
March Minneapolis wheat gapped up and closed higher on Monday leaving a one-day island bottom on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this fall's decline, monthly support crossing at 5.22 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.08 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX
January soybeans were lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/2 are needed confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 1999-
2008-rally crossing at 7.14 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.38 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.63 1/2. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 7.79 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 7.14.
March soybean meal was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Monday's short covering rally. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 257.30 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted and that a trend change has taken place. If March extends last week's decline, monthly support marking the 75% retracement level of the 2004-2008-rally crossing at 221.90 is the next downside target.
March soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's short covering rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends this fall's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008-rally crossing at 28.43 is the next downside target.
LIVESTOCK
February hogs closed down $0.07 at $64.12.
February hogs closed lower on Monday due to profit taking but remains above the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.95. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.95 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews November's rally, the reaction high crossing at 67.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 64.93. Second resistance is today's high crossing at 65.40. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 63.00. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 61.65.
February bellies closed down $0.85 at $89.45.
February bellies closed lower on Monday and below the 10-day moving average crossing at 91.72. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 88.66 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews November's rally, the reaction high crossing at 94.50 is the next upside target.
February cattle closed up $1.22 at 82.67.
February cattle gapped up and closed higher on Monday leaving a one-day island bottom on the daily chart. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends last week's decline, weekly support crossing at 80.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
January feeder cattle closed up $1.25 at $87.90.
January Feeder cattle closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last week's decline. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this fall's decline, weekly support crossing at 84.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 91.72 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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