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Commodities Reversing US Dollar Bottoming- Yorba TV Show

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Apr 16, 2008 - 10:28 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere are the topics for tomorrow's television show on www.yorba.tv Thursday at 4:00 pm EDT.

1) It's almost time for the US Dollar to stop its plunge!
As everyone is aware, the US Dollar has been in a severe decline since 2001. Over that time it has declined over 41%. The declining dollar helped to pull the economy out of the 2001 recession by lowering the prices of exports to foreign countries. But it also caused a lot of pain to consumers by being the primary cause of the rising cost of fuel. Depressed investor confidence in the Dollar is causing foreign investors to start selling dollar denominated assets, which in turn depresses investor confidence even more.


Already Iran and Venezuela, who don't care if they harm the US, have already been lobbying for oil to be sold in some other currency, such as the Euro. The big concern is how long Japan, Korea and China, who buy most of our debt, will be satisfied with seeing their dollar-denominated assets drop in value. China has threatened the so-called nuclear option, in which they would sell massive amounts of our debt and plunge the currency and bond markets into a further decline. Fortunately, The G-7 countries have agreed last weekend to support the Dollar, just in time to put in a bottom.

So, let's look at the chart of the Dollar to see it they can pull it off. The answer is yes, and very soon, too. The dollar just dropped out of a
triangle formation, which suggests that it is in its last leg down. Remarkably, a wave relationship suggests a low at 69.85, while dynamic support lies at 68.83. Usually a support level or a wave relationship can give us a soft target, but when it is doubly indicated, it's time to pay attention to signs of a potential reversal at that level.

2) Oil is coming to a similar impasse.

Its trendline lies at approximately 116, while dynamic resistance is at 115.85. Two close relationships such as those should not be ignored.

3) Gold has already reversed from its uptrend.

Now it is attempting a retracement rally to 970-975. The target should be reached very quickly.

4) The DJIA has been bouncing off the five-year trendline for 5 weeks now.

The trouble is, it has'nt been successful at breaking through resistance at 12750. This week is the last week of any strength for the month of April, so either it rallies through topside resistance or it fails miserably.

Which will it be? Stay tuned! on www.yorba.tv every Thursday at 4:00 pm EDT . You can find the archives of my latest programs by clicking here .

Please make an appointment to discuss our investment strategies by calling Claire or Tony at (517) 699-1554, ext 10 or 11. Or e-mail us at tpi@thepracticalinvestor.com .

Anthony M. Cherniawski,
President and CIO
http://www.thepracticalinvestor.com

As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

Anthony M. Cherniawski Archive

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