Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Wednesday, February 27, 2019
The $32 Trillion Push To Disrupt The Entire Oil Industry / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
Global oil and gas companies are increasingly facing an uphill battle as global warming policies are taking their toll. Most analysts and market watchers are focusing on peak oil demand scenarios, but the reality could be much darker. International oil companies (IOCs) are likely to face a Black Swan scenario, which could end up being a boon for state-owned oil companies (NOCs).
Increased shareholder activism, combined with global warming policies of institutional investors and NGOs, are pushing IOCs in a corner, constricting financing options for oil companies.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Bullish Sentiment Won’t Prevent a Breakout in Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Back in 2013 I recall having a bearish view on the stock market due to extremely bullish sentiment readings. The market completely ignored that, made a major breakout through 13 year resistance and continued running for years.
Lesson learned.
Turning to Gold, we find something similar during major breakouts in 2005, 2007 and 2009. In the chart below we plot Gold along with its net speculative position (as a percentage of open interest) and the widely followed daily sentiment index.
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019
Gold and Silver Prepare For A Momentum Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Today we warn of a potential downside price rotation in precious metals that may last 3~5+ weeks as metals set up for a massive breakout rally which we believe will start in late April or early May. Our custom indicators are suggesting that precious metals, and the general US stock markets, may be setting up for a bit of a reprieve rotation after a very impressive recovery. Be patient as we believe this pullback in prices will provide an excellent buying opportunity for the eventual momentum rally setting up in about 30+ days.
Let’s start by looking at our Custom Market Volatility indicators. The Weekly chart below highlights the recent recovery in the US stock market since the December 24th, 2018 lows and also shows that the current recovery level is sitting right at a 61.8% Fibonacci level. It is our belief that a period of general price weakness will begin to unfold over the next 10~15+ days in the US stock market. This rotation is very healthy for the next leg higher – the momentum rally we have been suggesting will take place in the near future.
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
What Do You Want, Mr. Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Barrick wants to buy Newmont. Trump wants a deal with China. Palladium wants to fly into space. And what does gold want?
Will Barrick and Newmont Create Gold Monster?
Do you remember our January 24, 2019 edition of the Gold News Monitor? We analyzed in that report the historic transaction in the bullion industry, i.e. the Newmont Mining’s purchase of Goldcorp, which will create the world’s largest gold miner. Forget it!
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Tuesday, February 26, 2019
It’s Dumb To Have No Gold Amid All Of This / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jared_Dillian
The Green New Deal is silly and not worth our attention. It implies we can have anything we want if the Federal Reserve extends credit.
Let me blow your hair back for a second.
The two biggest US stock market rallies (in the 1920s and in 1990) occurred when the budget deficit was disappearing or had disappeared.
Calvin Coolidge led the US through most of the Roaring Twenties. And he is perhaps the second-least well-understood president of the 20th century (behind only Warren Harding).
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Gold Price Breakout: Three Major Factors / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The Gold suppression game appears finally to be coming to an end. A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). These factors can be identified, each very powerful, each with a very new recent twist to alter the landscape. All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. They have been willing to destroy the global financial structure and many national economies, in order not just to maintain the political power, but also to continue the privilege of granting themselves $trillion free loans. The owners of the US Federal Reserve, Euro Central Bank, and Bank of England have granted themselves free money in gifted pilferage for a full century. As the saying goes, a nation needs a central bank like an oyster needs a piano. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. They saw corrupted underwriting, corrupted title database, and corrupted demand functions.
Tuesday, February 26, 2019
Supply Problems Worsen in Minted Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Sales of the Silver American Eagles are off to stronger start this year, and the U.S. Mint has once again been caught flat-footed. Dealers received the following statement from the Mint last Thursday:This is to inform you that we have temporarily sold out of our inventories of 2019-dated American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. In addition, all remaining 2018-dated inventories have been sold too.
The West Point Mint is busy producing additional 2019-dated American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins. We hope to be able to re-launch the 2019-dated coins in a few weeks.
Monday, February 25, 2019
Now For The Intense Phase Of The Silver Bull Market / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
Like all bull markets, the silver bull market has different phases, and theses phases have different intensities of price growth.
There are various indications/signs that silver is going into a phase of the bull market where prices will rise much faster than before. I have covered some of them in previous articles.
Here are a few things to look at.
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Sunday, February 24, 2019
Gold Looking to Break 2018 High - Elliott Wave View / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: ElliottWaveForecast
In our previous article, we have highlighted the possibility that Gold can quickly retest the high in 2018. The chart below shows the yellow metal has broken above a long term bearish channel from Sept 5, 2011 high. In addition, it has successfully closed above the ascending trend support from December 3, 2015 low.
Saturday, February 23, 2019
China-US Rivalry and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
It’s unimaginable what great progress China made in the last forty years. The rise of such economic power triggered many fears (or hopes) about the future international order. We invite you to read our today’s article about the rivalry between China and the US and find whether the Red Dragon will replace America as a global hegemon. And what would such a shift mean for the gold market.
The economic growth of China raises many worries. While some people fear the slowdown or stagnation in the Middle Kingdom, others claim that China will turn the existing international world upside down.
You see, since the end of the World War II, the US has been the most powerful country in the world. The Soviet Union rivaled, but it was too weak, and collapsed eventually. The global hegemony of the US became total then.
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Friday, February 22, 2019
Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish.
Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.
Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for gold, silver and the miners.
Since we became constructive on the gold sector in Q4 2018 (per the links above and especially NFTRH reports/updates) the groundswell of gold boosting (pom poms and all) has steadily risen since it became obvious that something bullish was going on in January. And it appears that last week’s breakout from various daily chart bull flags in gold, silver and the miners finally jerked ’em all in. Enter the Thursday pullback.
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Gold Weakens After FOMC Minutes / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The recent minutes show that the Fed is divided over future rate hikes. How should gold investors react?
To Hike, or not to Hike, That Is The Question
As Chairman Powell has been good at communicating the US central bank’s plans, the recent FOMC minutes do not contain too many surprises. In January, the Fed took investors by surprise, saying that it could be patient on interest rates. The minutes elaborated on this, explaining that a patient approach offers many benefits – additional data would shed some light on the recent softness in inflation, would enable the Fed official to observe effects of past rate hikes and would allow time for a clearer picture of trade and fiscal policy, and the state of the global economy – and only few risks, as inflationary pressure is muted, while asset valuations less stretched:
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Gold Technical Perspective – Why So Bullish? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Does technical analysis need to be so convoluted? Here are a couple of definitions from different sources:
1) Convoluted: (especially of an argument, story, or sentence) extremely complex and difficult to follow. (source)
2) Convoluted sentences, explanations, arguments, etc. are unreasonably long and difficult to understand.
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Thursday, February 21, 2019
Why Is Central Bank Buying Of Gold So Important? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
There is an old Yiddish expression called a bubbe meise (pronounced my-seh). I guess the closest English interpretation of this expression would be a grandmother’s tale, or in the common vernacular, an old-wives' tale.
Of late, I am seeing a bubbe meise about the importance of central bank buying of gold, and it is making its rounds on websites all over the internet.
We have been hearing for many years about how gold is supposed to soar because countries and central banks are buying the precious metal. Most of the fundamentalists in this market are convinced that this is a bullish signal. In fact, one article I read explained that central bank buying “is significant, as central banks are the 'smart money' given their influence on global economics and access to non-public information.”
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Has Gold Price Reached Upside Resistance Near $1340-1360? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Our research has indicated that precious metals should be setting up for a period of rotation and sideways trading over the next 20~30 days. We issued a research post on January 28, 2019 warning that precious metals would be consolidated over a 30~45 day period before setting up for a massive upside price move, here. This research was based on our Adaptive Dynamic Learning price modeling system and from our Adaptive Learning Cycles system. We believe this research is still very valid and want to alert metals traders that resistance in GOLD can be easily identified near $1340-1360.
The Weekly gold chart, below, highlights the resistance channel that originates in 2016 and continues with multiple peaks in 2017, 2018 and now. We believe this resistance will act as a price ceiling over the next few weeks before metals prices attempt an upside breakout as we suggested in our January 28 research post.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
Gold and the Great Global Wealth Grab / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Graham_Summers
Gold continues to soar, up 14% in the last six months and now challenging its 2018 highs.
If you’re looking to understand why Gold continues to rally, you don’t have to look any further than the political arena where more and more politicians are calling for wealth taxes and cash grabs.
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Wednesday, February 20, 2019
HUI Update…A Treat for Long Suffering Gold Traders / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Rambus_Chartology
Below is the combo chart which has the HUI on top, the UUP in the middle and GLD on the bottom. Everything looks fine.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Gold Stocks are Following This Historical Template / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Roughly one year ago and prior to that we observed that the gold stocks could be following the recovery template from what we deemed a “mega bear market.”
We define that as a bear market that is over two and a half years in time and over 80% in price. It cuts both ways.
The gold stocks from 2011 to January 2016 had declined more than 80% and for more than four years. It was a textbook mega bear market.
The sharp recovery in 2016 quickly faded and left us wondering if there was a historical comparison.
Turns out, there are three strong and relevant comparisons.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
Should We Declare Emergency for Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Sixteen states sue Trump over border wall emergency. Is it good or bad for the yellow metal?
Trump’s National Emergency and Gold
On Friday, President Trump declared a national emergency to obtain funds for building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, which was his key promise during a campaign. According to the President’s proclamation :
the current situation at the southern border presents a border security and humanitarian crisis that threatens core national security interests and constitutes a national emergency. The southern border is a major entry point for criminals, gang members, and illicit narcotics.
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Tuesday, February 19, 2019
The Coming Restoration of Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
The way I see it, silver has basically two major categories of use. The first and most important use is as a monetary asset. It is only when used as a monetary asset that it could realize its true (or fair) value.
Currently, it is probably as far away (not time wise though) from being used as a monetary asset, as it has ever been. It is for this reason that silver is so under valued and such a must-buy.
The second is really all other uses that is strictly non-monetary. This is how it is currently (materially) being used. Under this scenario it is just another asset that rises in price when excessive credit (including money printing) is created.
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