Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Gold Price Sharp C-Wave Drop? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Clive Maund sees some rough waters with gold and discusses how to play it. I have not been happy about the pattern that has been forming in gold since it plunged rather rudely and sharply around the end of February. The concern that was engendered by that plunge and the accompanying momentum breakdown, that we can see on gold's latest 8-month chart below, were allayed by its managing to stabilize above its parabolic uptrend line and then rise off it. However, the rally this month has been hesitant and unconvincing, and it is now becoming clearer that it may be a B-wave bear Flag to be followed by a C-wave breakdown through the parabolic uptrend support line that would lead to a sharp drop probably towards or to the support shown in the $1240 area, where it would stabilize before later reversing to the upside again. If this is the scenario that is set to unfold, it is likely to happen soon, as the bear Flag looks about complete.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The major silver miners have rallied higher on balance in recent months, enjoying a young upleg.  That’s a welcome change after they suffered a miserable 2018.  Times are tough for silver miners, since silver’s prices have languished near extreme lows relative to gold.  That has forced many traditional silver miners to increasingly diversify into gold.  The major silver miners’ recently-released Q4’18 results illuminate their struggles.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most silver miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Key Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Do you want to protect your capital against recession? Great, just like us and millions of other people. The key questions is, thus, how to predict that the danger is coming. We invite you to read our today’s article and find out what are key recession indicators – and their relationship with the price of gold.

Do you want to protect your capital against recession? Great, just like us and millions of other people. The key questions is, thus, how to predict that the danger is coming. We have already showed that NBER’s indicators do not signal upcoming economic problems yet. Neither the unemployment rate nor the yield curve.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Setup Final Buying Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., has been all over the precious metals markets for the past 16+ months.  We’ve been so deep into research and study with regards to price action and technical/fundamental data, that we’ve been able to call market moves many months in advance.

Recently, over the past few months, we’ve been warning that an April 21~24 date is likely to set up an ultimate price bottom in the precious metals market. It could prompt a broader upside price swing that should eventually lead to a much bigger upside breakout move.  On March 8, 2019, we posted this article that clearly outlined our thinking at that time saying a bounce to $1315-1320 before heading down to $1255.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Palladium, PALL/Gold Ratio, SPX and the Gold Sector / Commodities / Palladium

By: Gary_Tanashian

Okay, now I am getting geeked out. One of the most fun and rare times in what I do is when something big happens that I feel in my gut means something, but about which I am not able to come forth with a ready explanation of the meaning (without sounding like a know-it-all blowhard). It’s time to put the thinking cap on and to reference my wealth of experience (that’s another way of saying I am old) and try to figure out meanings going forward.

Reference the earlier post showing the impulsive drop in palladium and gold’s big bounce in relation.

Here is a chart of palladium at today’s close. Another down day and it will have put in the 20% drop that will get the pundits calling ‘bear market’. The volume spike is a kick-off, not a capitulation (obviously, since it only dropped two days ago). In the short-term it’s sure to bounce up and down, but it looks like an impulse just hit.

Friday, March 29, 2019

Yield Curve Inverted Even More. Is It Finally Time for Buying Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The U.S. yield curve extended its inversion. Everyone and their brother knows that recession must definitely be on the horizon. We are all doomed, so gold can only go up now, right?

Yield Curve Inversion Gets Larger

It’s getting more serious. On Friday, the yield curve inverted. This week, the spread between long-term and short-term rates has not only remained below zero, but it has dived further into negative territory. As the chart below shows, the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasuries fell to -0.05 on Tuesday.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Natural Gas Sets Up Another Buy Opportunity / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, we warned that Natural Gas may set up another opportunity for traders to buy into a support zone below $2.70 with a selling range near or above $3.00.  Our upside target zone is between $3.25 and $3.45.  The price of Natural Gas has recently fallen below $2.69 and we believe this could be the start of a setup for skilled traders to identify key buying opportunity in preparation for a quick +8% to +15% upside swing.

Historically, March and April have been pretty solid months for Natural Gas.  Let’s go over the historical data using three different seasonality charts which all point to higher prices.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Gold GLD Fund: Divergence Signals Shortage / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jim_Willie_CB

A Perfect Storm is hitting the Gold market, with an internal factor (QE), an external factor (SGE), and a systemic factor (Basel). All three forces are positive in releasing Gold from the corrupt clutches of the Anglo-American banker organization. The East has an all-out blitz to ditch the USDollar and to adopt the Gold Standard in its early form, namely trade payment. In the last ten years since the Lehman Brothers failure, all systems have undergone the same reckless treatment that the mortgage bonds endured. Slowly the realization is coming to the fore, stated by a few astute analysts. In the last decade, the US-UK banksters have created the USTreasury bond as the global subprime bond. This is the result of astounding persistent magnificent QE abuse, debt explosion, and hidden corruption. The so-called financial stimulus is actually hyper monetary inflation, which has destroyed the bond market. There are no legitimate USTreasury buyers outside the US foreign vassal states.

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

So Why Should You Own Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Maybe you have some gold (and silver) but not enough. Maybe you haven't added to your stash for quite awhile, and you kinda' forgot why you bought it in the first place.

Or perhaps you don't own any precious metals at all!

If one of these circumstances fits you, then it's time to refresh your memory on the multiple reasons why you should own gold, assess your risk profile and unique financial circumstances... then act!

The oft-stated Gresham's Law tells us that when a government dictates the exchange rate between different types of money, the "good," or undervalued method of exchange gets chased out by the "bad," or overvalued version.

Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Falling Yields a Catalyst for The Gold Catalyst / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Since last spring we’ve written over and over again about a Fed rate cut being the catalyst for a bull move in gold stocks.

The history is almost bulletproof. Many lows in gold stocks over the past 60 years coincided with the end of rate hikes.

At present the Federal Reserve is in pause mode and the market is on the cusp of pricing in a rate cut. Friday, Fed funds futures showed a 56% chance of a rate cut by January 2020.

Monday, March 25, 2019

What Do Air Plane Crashes and the Precious Metals Markets Have in Common? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration worked closely together to hustle a new passenger jet through the safety certification process. The combined efforts to save time and cost, coupled with little sense of accountability, resulted in a tragic safety flaw.

Now hundreds of passengers are dead, albeit in other countries. The public is finding the enormous trust placed in the manufacturer and the agency tasked with monitoring safety was badly misplaced.

The regulator tasked with safety appeared more interested in protecting Boeing’s monopoly and bottom line.

Monday, March 25, 2019

20 Days Left to Find Buying Opportunities In Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our researchers have been glued to Gold, Silver and the Precious Metals sector for many months. We believe the current setup in Gold is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for skilled traders to stake positions below $1300 before a potentially incredible upside price move.  We’ve been alerting our members and follower to this opportunity since well before the October/December 2018 downside price rotation in the US markets.

October 5, 2018: Prepare for a gold and silver rally

December 9, 2018: Waiting for gold to erupt

Jan 25, 2018: Why everyone is talking about gold and silver

Monday, March 25, 2019

Will the Historic Imbalance in Gold Stocks to Gold Price Resolve ? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

There is a ratio chart, $Gold:$XAU, we haven’t looked at in quite awhile that has helped us in the past to locate some important turning points for the PM stocks. I’m not going to get into all the details tonight but this ratio chart shows you just how undervalued the $XAU or precious metals stocks in general are to gold itself. From the mid 1980’s to the 2008 GFC crash the horizontal blue line was a good place to buy your gold and silver stocks and when the ratio fell to the red line it was a good place to sell those stocks.

Everything changed dramatically between gold and the gold stocks during that 2008 crash period. The green circle on the XAU shows where the failure occurred. Instead of the ratio dropping down to the red line like it had always done before the ratio broke out above the blue horizontal line in a way it had never done previously. At the time I labeled that initial high as the highest the ratio had ever been in history thinking the price action would decline back into the old trading range between the blue and red lines. As you can see that wasn’t the case at all. Instead of getting back to normal the ratio began to go parabolic to the upside and finally topped out in January of 2016 as shown by the small double top, yellow shaded area. That also marked the bottom for the XAU.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Risk/Reward in Silver Favors Buying Now, Not Waiting for Big Moves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and MoneyMetals.com columnist joins me and reviews the key reasons why we ought to own precious metals -- and discusses the risks of NOT acting now when the price of silver is still cheap. He also discusses why he believes the set-up for the next bull leg higher in metals is going to be different than the false breakout we saw back in 2016. Don’t miss a fantastic interview with David Smith, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, as bulls and bears battle for control of the gold and silver markets, doves have gained full control of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed announced no change in interest rates – a decision which was expected. But policy makers went further and suggested there would be NO rate hikes at all for the REST of the year.

Bloomberg News Anchor: Doves fly, the pause continues, no change in the Fed's target rate and they are done for the year. The Dot Plot now calls for no rate increase in 2019.

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Gold Mid-Tier GDXJ Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier gold miners’ stocks have been rallying on balance in recent months, carving a solid young upleg.  They’ve mostly finished reporting their latest fourth-quarter results, revealing how they are faring fundamentally.  Their operating and financial performance is very important for investors, as the mid-tier realm is where most of the gold-stock sector’s gains accrue.  They fared really well in a challenging quarter.

Four times a year publicly-traded companies release treasure troves of valuable information in the form of quarterly reports.  Required by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, these 10-Qs and 10-Ks contain the best fundamental data available to traders.  They dispel all the sentiment distortions inevitably surrounding prevailing stock-price levels, revealing corporations’ underlying hard fundamental realities.

While 10-Qs with filing deadlines of 40 days after quarter-ends are required for normal quarters, 10-K annual reports are instead mandated after quarters ending fiscal years.  Most gold miners logically run their accounting on calendar years, so they issue 10-Ks after Q4s.  Since these annual reports are larger and must be audited by independent CPAs, their filing deadlines are extended to 60 days after quarter-ends.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Two Most Important Recession Indicators and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

With everyone talking about recession, investors desperately need some clues to assess the state of the economy. This is what our today’s article provide you with. We invite you to read it and find out what are the two most important recession indicators – and what is the link between them and the gold prices.

With everyone talking about recession, investors desperately need some clues to assess the state of the economy. We have already discussed how the NBER determines recessions, pointing out that its indicators are not the best tools for forward-looking precious metals investors. We mean here that the real GDP, real income, industrial production, retail sales and employment are not close to flashing red, but even when they do, the recession will already be underway.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Does Fed Know Something Gold Investors Do Not Know? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed doubled down on its dovish stance. What card will gold play now?

Fed Remains Patient

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on March 19-20th. In line with the expectations, the US central bank unanimously kept its interest rates unchanged. The federal funds rate remained at the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent:

The Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

With the UUP ( US Dollar ETF) having a fairly large decline today lets update a few charts to see how they’ve been progressing. Back in August of last year the UUP began to build out a rising wedge formation with today’s price action completing the fourth reversal point when the UUP traded down to the bottom trendline. Sometimes when a stock fails to touch the top rail in a well defined pattern like the rising wedge the UUP is showing, it can be a warning sign that the energy just isn’t there and the stock has run out of gas. To complete the rising wedge we need to see the bottom rail give way which should usher in a strong move for the PM complex and I would think commodities in general.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Silver Price is Cheap vs Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: readtheticker

Metal investors will be paying attention to how out of favor silver is relative to gold. And it is hard to wonder why with the well forecast boom of electric cars expected over the next 10 years. Who owns all the silver? JM Bullion has a series of charts here. Notice the stock pile held by JPM. They will do will if silver gets to $30 USD an once! Chart up to April 2017

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Gold Price To Continue To Base Below $1320 For Weeks / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our research team, at Technical Traders Ltd., believes Gold will continue to base below $1320 for at least another 3~5 weeks before setting up a momentum price base.  Our research suggests general weakness in the US stock market over the next few weeks/months as a Head-n-Shoulders pattern unfolds.  Interestingly enough, our research also suggests Gold may continue to base below $1320 (likely below $1300) for at least another 2~4 weeks before forming a rounded bottom type pattern as a base.