Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, February 04, 2019

Two Winning Gold Trade Setups – GDXJ and ROKU / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We are not always correct in our calls about the market.  Professional researchers and analysts must understand that attempting to accurately predict the future outcome of any commodity, stock, index or ETF is impossible to be 100% accurate.  Yet, we are pleased that our proprietary price modeling and analysis tools continue to provide us with very clear triggers and alert us to price moves before they happen.

Today, we are sharing two recent trades we executed with our members that resulted in some decent profits.  The first example is our GDXJ trade.  We had been in a Long position since before the beginning of 2019 expecting Gold and Miners to rally.  Our price modeling systems suggested that after price reached $1300, we may experience a brief price pause over the next 45 days or so.  Thus, we pulled the profits in this trade recently to lock in 10.5% profit and to allow us to re-enter when our modeling systems suggest the price pullback has ended.

Monday, February 04, 2019

Time for a Breakout in Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

First we need to define what a breakout actually is. Its when the price breaks a pattern or a range and a new trend is therefore established.

Today, people are all too quick to refer to almost every move higher as a breakout. Just google “Gold Breakout” and you’ll see what I mean.

Sure, closing above $1300 was a breakout for Gold. But that’s hardly significant. If and when Gold surpasses the wall (resistance at $1350-$1375), it will mark a real breakout.

The good news is Gold is currently in a much better position both fundamentally and technically than it was in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Sunday, February 03, 2019

Some Optimistic Precious Metals Charts / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Rambus_Chartology

Below is a weekly chart for the GDX we’ve been following for a long time watching the two and a half year falling wedge completing about 8 weeks ago when we finally got the breakout. The backtest to the top rail took about seven weeks to complete with this weeks price action possibly beginning the impulse move higher. To be honest I still can’t rule out another backtest to the top rail and the 30 week ema, but at this point it appears the breaking out and backtesting process looks to be complete.

Friday, February 01, 2019

Crude Oil – How Many Minutes to Midnight Before We Act? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Yesterday, some might have wondered where is the limit to the upswing in oil. It would be natural to expect it to catch up to e.g. gold and silver upswings. Would be, could be. We just saw something that made us act. Diligently, with foresight and confidence – when the odds are with us. It’s time to share it with you.

Friday, February 01, 2019

Get Ready For The Next Big Upside Leg In Precious Metals and Miners / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

We recently closed our GDXJ trade for a 10.5% total profit with our members.  We are preparing for a lower price rotation over the next 45+ days that will allow us to plan for new long.  Our research indicates the metals/miners should enter a downside price rotation over the next 45+ days as the US stock markets continue to rally.  Give this expectation, it is important to understand how we are timing this move for our members and attempting to take advantage of strategic trade deployment.

With Gold recently breaking above $1300, many analysts have been calling for a continued breakout move to the upside as well as a massive market correction in the US stock market.  We’ve been calling for just the opposite to happen – a pause in the metals/miners near this $1300~1320 level.

Friday, February 01, 2019

40 Years of Chinese Economic Reforms and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The economic development of China is one of the most important events in the history of the world. In an unprecedentedly short time, millions of people have been taken out from poverty. But, as no country has ever developed so fast, that great story raises important worries.

We invite you to read our today’s article about the great progress China made in the last forty years and find out whether it’s too good to be true and it must end with some catastrophe, triggering rally in the gold prices.

One of the biggest risks for the global economy which can materialize this year is the slowdown of China’s economic growth. So, it is wise to analyze the current state of the Chinese economy – its implications for the gold market and what will happen next. As December 2018 marked the forty years of market reforms in China, we will adopt a long-term perspective, explaining how China transformed itself from a poor, backward and isolated country to the world’s economic power. We will examine what the global economy and the precious metals market can expect in China’s fifth decade of reform and development.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Peak Gold and the Coming Supply Crunch / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

During the lackluster and otherwise unremarkable trading of 2018, a hugely important development took place in the precious metals markets. Gold production, in the estimation of some top industry insiders, peaked.

Peak gold represents the point at which the total number of ounces being pulled out of the ground by miners reaches a maximum.

It doesn’t necessarily mean gold production will suffer a precipitous fall. But it does mean the mining industry lacks the capacity to ramp up production in order to meet rising global demand and even higher prices would not make it happen.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Counter Cyclical Market Winds Blow, Gold Miners Front and Center / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

As the stock market cracked on October 10th we noted…

Looks Who’s Holding Firm Amid the Carnage; the Gold Miners

And sure enough the GDX bottoming pattern noted in that post (and before that in an NFTRH subscriber update) played out perfectly amid the stock market carnage going on all around it.

Was I trying to predict something? Of course not. I was just following general rules we’ve had in place through all of NFTRH’s 10-plus year history and privately for myself since early in the bull market that began in 2001. Very simply, the counter-cyclical winds must blow and the Macrocosm must come front and center for a constructive fundamental view of the gold stock sector. That first crack in the stock market was a good start.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Will Fed’s Dovish Shift Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Big win for the doves! And for gold, as it jumped above $1,320 amid the soft FOMC statement. What’s next?

Committee Will Be Patient

Yesterday, the FOMC published the monetary policy statement from its latest meeting that took place on January 29-30th. In line with the expectations, the US central bank unanimously kept the federal funds rate unchanged at the target range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent (the Fed also kept other interest rates unchanged and reaffirmed its “Statement of Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy”):

In support of these goals [maximum unemployment and price stability], the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

Thursday, January 31, 2019

A Major Silver Breakout Ahead? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

Silver is currently going for a major breakout.

Here is a chart I featured months ago:

Thursday, January 31, 2019

ECB and Fed Dance With Gold at $1,300 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

ECB’s meeting is behind us, while the gathering of the Fed officials is ahead of us. In the meantime, the price of gold jumped above $1,300. Will it stay for longer?

Slowdown in the Eurozone, but not Recession

On Thursday, the ECB held its monetary policy meeting. It left the policy on hold. The bank also maintained its forward guidance about the future path of interest rates unchanged (they are expected to “remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019”). However, in his introductory statement, Draghi acknowledged the weaker momentum, caused mainly by an increase in general uncertainty:

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Oil Majors Near Inflection Point As Spending Rises / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: OilPrice_Com

Oil prices are still down sharply from the highs of October 2018, but the industry may still increase spending this year. The cost of developing new projects might rise along with higher spending levels.

A survey of top industry executives by DNV GL suggests that capital spending on oil and gas could rise in 2019. Of the 791 senior professionals in the energy industry surveyed by DNV GL, 70 percent said they plan on either maintaining or increasing capex this year. That is up significantly from the 39 percent who said the same in 2017.

“Despite greater oil price volatility in recent months, our research shows that the sector appears confident in its ability to better cope with market instability and long-term lower oil and gas prices,” said Liv Hovem, the head of DNV’s oil and gas division, according to Reuters. “For the most part, industry leaders now appear to be positive that growth can be achieved after several difficult years.”

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Gold & Silver Awaken from Eight-Year Slumber / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Two years ago at a conference during which I both presented and attended, a Keynote speaker, "Rich Dad" Robert Kiyosaki, introduced me to a different way of looking at things. He posed the question, "How many sides does a coin have?"

The correct answer is "three." The front (obverse), back (reverse) and… the edge!

When you think about it, this makes sense. From this angle – uncommon to most observers – a person can begin to look more deeply at a given subject. From the edge, you are able by definition, to see "both sides" of the story.

Using Rich Dad's perspective as a research tool helps define and validate the premise of this essay… that the price action right now of gold – and soon silver – are giving us important clues about the direction, strength, and durability of the next price trend.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Gold Price Trend Forecast - 45 Days Until A Multi Year Breakout In Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Today is the day we want to warn our followers that we expect the precious metals to continue to base with a fairly narrow price range for about 45 to 65 more days before upside pricing pressures start to take hold of the markets.  There has been quite a bit of chatter about Gold breaking above $1300 recently.  Many people have been expecting it to move much higher fairly quickly.  We don’t believe that will be the case – but expect it have another significant rally in April, May or June.

Monthly Gold Forecast Chart – Posted October 2018

Back in early October 2018, we shared this chart with all of our followers suggesting that Gold and precious metals would rally to above $1300 near December/January using our Adaptive Dynamic Learning predictive modeling system.  We’ve been suggesting to our followers for many months that Gold, Silver, and miners would begin a new upside price swing, yet we knew the big breakout moves were still many months away.

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Break above $1300 in Gold Forms Elliott Wave Impulse / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: ElliottWaveForecast

Last Friday Gold managed to break above $1300. The yellow metal has therefore broken above 8 year bearish channel in a weekly closing basis. The break also allows the metal to close back above the ascending trend support from Nov 30, 2015 low as the chart below shows.

Monday, January 28, 2019

Will Crude Oil Find Support Above $50? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recent global news regarding Venezuela, China, and global oil supply/production have resulted in the price of Oil pausing over the past few weeks near $53 to $55 ppb.  We believe the continued supply glut and uncertainty will result in oil prices falling, briefly, back below $50 ppb before any new price rally begins.  Our researchers at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com believe historical resistance near $54~55 is strong enough to drive prices lower before new momentum picks up for a renewed price rally.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Why Everyone’s Talking About Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been following some of the research posts by some of the biggest names in the precious metals industry, you may understand “why” so many people are so excited about the opportunities in Gold and Silver recently.  There are so many facets to the fundamental and emotional functions of precious metals as an industrial commodity as well as a safe-haven investment to protect against risk and to hedge against inflation.  Old school traders were taught to “watch gold, oil, and bonds” for signs of concern, weakness and as a means of gauging total market sentiment.  The idea behind this statement was these market tend to act as the “canary in the coal mine” in terms of fear and risk.

Recently, we posted an article that suggested Gold, Silver and many other precious metals would move in unison as this new price expansion takes place (https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/metals-moving-in-unison-for-a-massive-price-advance-part-ii/).  Many of our modeling systems are suggesting that Gold will rocket well above $1400 sometime near May or June of 2019.  These predictive modeling tools help us to identify opportunities and price moves well ahead of the other research firms available today.  Our unique tools can actually pinpoint times/dates when breakout moves should take place and allow traders to prepare for these moves months in advance – like today.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Gold Price Is Rallying in All Other Fiat Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial joins us for a 2019 outlook. I’ll ask him if the thinks the recent stock market rally has legs – and also for his forecast for gold this year. And Greg has some very interesting news regarding the yellow metal which – to his surprise – hardly anyone knows about. Don’t miss another fantastic interview with Greg Weldon, coming up after this week’s market update.

Gold and silver markets traded modestly lower through Thursday’s close as the U.S. Senate failed to pass bills to re-open the government. All the metals are up today however.

President Trump’s compromise deal garnered a majority but drew just one Democrat vote and came up a few shy of the 60 needed. So the shutdown persists – along with growing partisan rancor and pettiness.

Friday, January 25, 2019

Gold Stocks Upleg Pauses / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have slumped in January, tilting sentiment back to bearish.  This sector’s strong December upward momentum was checked by gold’s own upleg stalling out.  Gold investment demand growth slowed on the blistering stock-market rally.  But uplegs always flow and ebb, and this young gold-stock upleg merely paused.  The gold miners’ gains will likely resume soon, rekindling bullish psychology.

Most investors and analysts track the gold-mining sector with its leading ETF, the GDX VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF.  GDX was this sector’s pioneering ETF birthed in May 2006, creating a huge first-mover advantage that is insurmountable.  This week GDX’s net assets of $9.9b were an incredible 56.7x larger than the next-biggest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF!  GDX dominates this space with little competition.

Back in early September, the gold stocks plunged to a major 2.6-year secular low per GDX.  This sector suffered a brutal forced capitulation on cascading stop-loss selling, devastating sentiment.  The triggering catalyst was gold getting pounded to its own major lows in mid-August on record futures short selling.  At worst GDX fell to $17.57 on close, which was down an ugly 24.4% year-to-date.  Most traders fled in disgust.

But major new uplegs are born in peak despair, and that was it.  The gold stocks started recovering out of those fundamentally-absurd levels, gradually carving a solid upleg.  By early January GDX had rallied 22.3% higher in 3.7 months, fueling more-optimistic sector sentiment.  Plenty of speculators and investors including me were comparing 2019’s setup for gold stocks to the first half of 2016, a wildly-lucrative stretch.

Friday, January 25, 2019

The Financial Secret Behind Germany’s Green Energy Revolution / Commodities / Renewable Energy

By: Ellen_Brown

The “Green New Deal” endorsed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D.-N.Y., and more than 40 other House members has been criticized as imposing a too-heavy burden on the rich and upper-middle-class taxpayers who will have to pay for it. However, taxing the rich is not what the Green New Deal resolution proposes. It says funding would come primarily from certain public agencies, including the U.S. Federal Reserve and “a new public bank or system of regional and specialized public banks.”

Funding through the Federal Reserve may be controversial, but establishing a national public infrastructure and development bank should be a no-brainer. The real question is why we don’t already have one, as do China, Germany and other countries that are running circles around us in infrastructure development. Many European, Asian and Latin American countries have their own national development banks, as well as belong to bilateral or multinational development institutions that are jointly owned by multiple governments. Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve, which considers itself “independent” of government, national development banks are wholly owned by their governments and carry out public development policies.