Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, May 31, 2010
OECD UK Interest Rates Must Rise to 3.5% During 2011 To Combat Inflation / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The OECD academic economics institution says that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of 2011 to combat inflation. The OECD inline with other academic economics institutions remains as much as 6 months behind the curve by stating the obvious that inflation is too high AFTER inflation has risen to a 19 year high with RPI hitting 5.3% and CPI at 3.7%, by warning of higher UK interest rates AFTER market interest rates have already risen.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Sovereign Debt Defaults Equal Social Unrest Plus Much Higher Gold Prices / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Arnold_Bock
The magnitude of current private and government debt, coupled with massive unfunded contingent liabilities for promises of future services to their citizens, will prove to be impossible for many nations to fund. Massive inflation in the money supply will become the preferred vehicle to deflect the default monster and will result in vastly devalued currencies and price inflation as a prelude to default. Such action will be a desperate attempt to buy time to stave off the inevitable and will result in social unrest caused by persons whose comfortable lifestyle and elevated standard of living is about to disintegrate before their very eyes.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
The Broken Euro Club Bailout, Calling All Martians / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Jonathan_Pain
When the due diligence team from the IMF arrived in Athens to determine how much money was needed, they were not surprised by what they found. They had for many years been watching events in Europe and had wondered how long it would take the Germans to find out how the Greeks had not been playing by the rules of the Euro club. In fact the citizens of Mars had been watching the reality show, „Euro club‟ for many years. What concerned them most was that the last time they had seen the Europeans get so angry with each other, many horrible, horrible things had happened.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Pity the Greeks, Should the U.S. Bail Out European Banks? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: John_Mauldin
Six Impossible Things
Delta Force
Reduce your Deficits!
Pity the Greeks
Should the US Bail Out European Banks?Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said" One can't believe impossible things."
Friday, May 28, 2010
Great News for Your Grandkids About Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: DailyWealth
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: "Good News for the Grandchildren" was the title of David Einhorn's speech on Wednesday at the Ira Sohn Conference in New York. I was there.
"Are you worried that we are passing our debt on to future generations?" Einhorn began...
Thursday, May 27, 2010
An American Concept: Crushing Sovereign Debt / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: David_Galland
By David Galland, Managing Director, Casey Research writes:
Commenting on the European crisis – because this has gone well past being one that can be termed “Greek” – the New York Times cited a senior U.S. official on the significant role the U.S., including Obama himself, played in getting Europe’s leadership to agree to a bailout approaching one trillion. One particularly telling quote…Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 27, 2010
Stage Set For Another Bernanke Inflationary Adventure / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Brady_Willett
Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, has been eerily quiet during the recent market storm. To be sure, seemingly oblivious to the happenings in EU-land Mr. Bernanke’s speech, The Economics of Happiness, was delivered shortly after major riots in Greece and shortly before the historic nearly $1 trillion plan was announced to try and prevent the destruction of the Euro. As for Bernanke’s speech a month earlier, the tone was that of victory:
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
E.U. Bailout Just Delays Inevitable Sovereign Debt Default / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: The_Gold_Report
Replacing most of Europe's colorful notes and various coins less than a decade ago, the euro is on the brink of extinction, according to Trader Tracks' Roger Wiegand, sharing news and views of Euroland's critical condition with Gold Report readers in this exclusive interview. Roger says the euro at $1.20 is the "line in the sand where big trouble will start. . .and that's dangerously close." On the other side of the world, he sees China doing well now, but doesn't pin his hopes on China as the engine for global economic growth as so many others do. In fact, he says things there are "fraying a bit on the edges." So, is there a white horse waiting in the wings to lead the world back to economic good health? Read on. . .
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
In a Word, the Problem is DEBT / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Tim_Iacono
Recent developments in the euro zone that increasingly look like they will lead to the restructuring (if not the collapse) of one of the world’s major currencies and the potential for this “contagion” to move first north to the U.K. and then west to the U.S. have many people wondering what’s gone wrong with the global monetary system.
How could advanced Western economies have run into such trouble?
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Fed Confirms What Gold, Hard Asset Investors Already Knew / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
Exit plan? What exit plan? The Federal Reserve issued a report before Congress in an attempt to clarify its stance during one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression. The Fed, as always, said very little, but did make one thing very clear—the Fed has no idea what it is doing.
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Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Why U.S. Treasury Bonds Aren't the 'safe haven' Investors Think... / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_Morning
In the last few weeks, international investors spooked by the budget crisis in Greece and the turmoil in southern Europe have been flocking into the U.S. Treasury bond market as a "safe haven."
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Keeps Chugging Along as Stocks, Gold and Commodities Remain Under Pressure / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market just keeps chugging along very convincingly here through the seasonally negative month of May. The stock market and commodities remained under pressure as Gold has joined the sell-off. Looking at the Fed’s stock vs. 10 Year Note Relative Value Model, it has drastically swung from bonds 2.5 standard deviations cheap in March to stocks 2.6 standard deviations cheap last Thursday. Looks like some of the short term moves are a bit ahead of themselves at this point, but the message is fairly clear: the low hanging fruit has been picked as far as the risk-trade is concerned; the character of the market is rapidly changing.
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Sunday, May 23, 2010
Sovereign Debt Crisis, America, PIIGS “R” Us too? / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Michael_Pollaro
The title of this essay may be a play on words but the facts are nothing of the sort. Indeed, the facts suggest that the financial position of the U.S. government may not be all that much better than the financial position of the governments of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece or Spain, the so-called PIIGS. In fact, given the agenda the Obama administration has set for America, one so far distinguished by ever larger government spending programs being financed by ever larger amounts of debt, the U.S. government may be well on its way to becoming PIIGS “R” Us.
Saturday, May 22, 2010
U.S. Interest Rates Remain on Hold or Heading Higher? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: John_Mauldin
The Case for a Fed Rate Hike
Employment Is Turning the Corner
The Headwinds of Money Supply
Who Stole the Inflation?
The Fed Is On Hold
An Inverted Yield Curve?
LA, Vancouver, San Francisco, and a First
Often Wrong, Seldom in Doubt
Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)
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Friday, May 21, 2010
U.K. Government Bonds, Gilts Ahead of the Pack / Interest-Rates / UK Debt
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
We wrote a Market Update on the day of the UK General election outlining 3 possible scenarios for the Gilt market post-election.
We noted how we thought the market would rally on two of the possible outcomes:
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Friday, May 21, 2010
Government Budget Deficit Financing and Inflation / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: MISES
I assume that you know how the banking system developed and how the banks could improve the services rendered by gold, by transferring assets from one individual to another individual in the books of the banks. When you study the development of the history of money you will discover that there were countries in which there were systems in which all the payments were made by transactions in the books of a bank, or of several banks. The individuals acquired an account by paying gold into this bank. There is a limited quantity of gold, so the payments which are made are limited. And it was possible to transfer gold from the account of one man to the account of another.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Small Investors Rush Into Junk Bonds, Where is the Fiduciary Responsibility? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market
By: Mike_Shedlock
Burnt by the stock market too many times to count, small investors have been herding into junk bonds instead. Indeed, the mad rush into junk continues even as debt covenants weaken and fund managers are skeptical.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
The Greek Debt Tragedy a Sneak Preview of What's Coming to Washington / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ron_Holland
"The current European debt crisis likely will not end until the euro collapses as a currency and takes the entire European Union with it." ~ Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and writer of The Gartman Letter
I was just in Greece, where the stupidity and venality of the political class are in full view.
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Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Global Debt Defaults Ahead as Keynesian's Race to Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Gary_North
The euro is falling. It is at the lowest exchange rate to the dollar in four years.
Confidence in the euro is falling because it is becoming clear that the region's commercial bankers have made the same sorts of bad decisions that American commercial bankers made after 2000. They loaned money to debtors in Eastern Europe who will not be able to repay. These loans were collateralized by real estate, which rose. Real estate prices in Eastern Europe are now falling. The bubble has popped.
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Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Debt Default ‘Deferral’ of Greece a Dangerous Precedent – Got Gold? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Arnold_Bock
If the implications of the recent Greek tragedy were not so serious it would have been seen more as a Greek comedy (of fiscal errors). In fact, however, to deploy another metaphor, Greece's sovereign debt is seen as the proverbial canary in the coal mine - a microcosm of the relentlessly growing sovereign debt that has taken much of Europe by storm and is threatening to spread to the U.S.