Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, June 02, 2011
Russia’s Interest Rate Hike is Negative for US Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Dollar
By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis
While the US markets were closed to observe Memorial Day, Russia’s central bank acted to raise interest rates to cool inflation. This may have ordinarily registered as a normal event for a central bank, but nothing is normal when the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, refuses to hike rates in the United States.
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Thursday, June 02, 2011
Near-term Correction in U.S. Treasury Bond Market Yield / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
If the upmove in 10-year yield from the October 2010 low at 2.33% to the February 2011 high at 3.74% represents the first upleg of a new bull phase (higher yield), then all of the action since the February high is a correction that should be bought ahead of a resumption of the prior upmove.
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Wednesday, June 01, 2011
Why Greece Debt Default Could be Worse than the Lehman Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Money_Morning
Martin Hutchinson writes:
The 2008 collapse of Lehman Bros Holdings Inc. (PINK: LEHMQ) ignited a financial meltdown that resulted in widespread bank failures and caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to lose 18% of its value in just one week.
Yet a Greek default - which (even with a bailout) becomes increasingly likely with each passing day - would actually be much, much worse in many respects.
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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
Record Low Interest Rates Triggers Corporate Bonds Issuance Stampede / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Money_Morning
David Zeiler writes:
With interest rates at or near historic lows, companies have been issuing corporate bonds at a breathtaking pace, setting a weekly record this month.
Excluding financial services companies, corporate borrowing for the week ending May 20 reached $29.7 billion, which beat the previous weekly record of $29.04 billion set last September.
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Monday, May 30, 2011
Euro Debt Crisis, Greece, Portugal, Spain Debts Are Unpayable / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Bob_Chapman
We hope all of our appearances on Greek TV, radio and in the press have helped the educational process and to allow the Greeks to identify who the real culprits are, and what to do about it. It has just been over a year since this tragedy became reality, but we reported on Greece and Italy ten years ago. They both bent the rules to enter the euro zone. We knew then that Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase were assisting them by creating credit default swaps. There were a few European journalist who reported on the issue, but the elitists control the media and few noticed that Greece and Italy were beyond bogus.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Japan Shows How to Defuse Debt Time Bomb / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ellen_Brown
[T]hreatening to default should not be a partisan issue. In view of all the hazards it entails, one wonders why any responsible person would even flirt with the idea. - Alan S. Blinder, Princeton professor of economics, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve
A game of Russian roulette is being played with the national debt ceiling. Fire the wrong chamber of the gun, and the result could be the second Great Depression.
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Monday, May 30, 2011
Shorting U.S. Treasury Bonds, Wither TBT / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Peter_Navarro
A loyal reader asked me about TBT – the exchange traded fund to short the long bond. As you may remember, I was very bullish on TBT last year; but it turned out to be one of my worst trades.
The best thing to do when a trade goes the wrong way is to learn from it. In this case, TBT serves a dual function for me – as both a potential trade as well as a leading indicator of the business cycle.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
Central Banks Monetary Policy Week in Review / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: CentralBankNews
The past week in monetary policy saw six emerging market central banks announce interest rate decisions. Those that altered interest rate levels were: Israel +25bps to 3.25%, and Nigeria +50bps to 8.00%. Meanwhile those that held interest rates unchanged were: Pakistan 14.00%, Turkey 6.25%, Georgia 8.00%, and Mexico 4.50%. The Central Bank of Nigeria also raised its bank cash reserve requirement by 200bps to 4% from 2%.
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Friday, May 27, 2011
$70 Trillion U.S. Debt Means The Door is About to Shut for Americans / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Jeff_Berwick
Anyone aware of the US Government's real financial situation knows that time is running out. The Government has $15.5 trillion in admitted debts but those debts, when calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), or 'honest accounting', is over $70 trillion. $70 trillion divided by 300 million+ Americans works out to $233,000 per person in US Federal Government debt and obligations. Or nearly $1 million per family of four.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Endless Money Printing Quantitative Easing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Puru_Saxena
Over the past few weeks, we have spent a lot of time digging into the macro data pertaining to the world's developed economies. After careful analysis, our research has convinced us that quantitative easing (money creation out of thin air) will not end anytime soon.
Friday, May 27, 2011
Implication of U.S. Low Borrowing Rates for Savers, Don't Cry for PIMCO / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Bloomberg
PIMCO's Bill Gross spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Tom Keene today. Gross said that “savers are being disadvantaged” 5 to 15 years when compared to creditors, as the U.S. keeps borrowing rates low to reduce its debt burden and that investors should look to corporate bonds instead of U.S. debt.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Eyeing the UltraShort Treasury TNX ETF / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
My near and intermediate-term technical work on the 10-year yield is warning me that the correction in yield off of the Feb 9 high at 3.74% is nearing completion ahead of the initiation of a new, powerful upleg.
Let's notice that all of the action during the past two weeks has carved out a "falling wedge" formation within the lower portion of the larger, corrective pattern that has dominated the price action since early February.
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Thursday, May 26, 2011
Economic Green Shoots, Exit Strategy, No QE3 Money Printing / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
It is not clear whether the American financial community has the ability to observe and conclude that the US Federal Reserve is adrift and relies upon deception as policy in revealing its directions. Its position is to hold steady, inflate to oblivion, support financial markets in heavy volume secretly, and lie about leaving its trapped policy corner. The USFed is a propaganda machine that deals with ruses as a substitute for transparent policy discussion in the public forum. Two years ago the ruse disseminated widely was the Green Shoots of an economic recovery that had no basis at all.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Eurozone Debt Crisis, Euro Dead on Arrival / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: John_Mauldin
I am attending the Global Interdependence Center’s latest conference here in Philadelphia, writing you from the Admiral’s Club on my way to Boston. The chatter last night at dinner and between sessions was focused on the risks in Europe. I did an interview with Aaron Task on Yahoo’s Daily Ticker, where I noted that European leaders are starting to use the word containedwhen they talk about Greece. Shades of Bernanke and subprime. This too will not be contained.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Debt Ceiling Jeopardizes U.S. Dollar’s Reserve Currency Status / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Axel_Merk
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner has warned that delays in extending the U.S. debt ceiling may cause irreparable harm. While borrowing costs for the U.S. government have not yet risen, irreparable harm may have already been done to the U.S. dollar and its status as a reserve currency. Ironically, it’s not a plunging, but a rallying bond market that is a symptom of the problem. Let us explain.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
U.S. Sovereign Debt Risk Re-Rating, Technical Default is Virtual Certainty / Interest-Rates / US Debt
By: Bloomberg
David Stockman, budget director under President Reagan, appeared on Bloomberg Television to discuss the latest developments in the deficit/debt debate. Stockman said there is sovereign risk on the debt of the United States and that both political parties in the U.S. are advocating “de facto default” by pointing fingers at each other.
Monday, May 23, 2011
How China Stiffs Its Creditors, Debt Default / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis
By: Ian_Fletcher
I examined in a previous article the ethical case for America repudiating its financial obligations to China. While considering this tempting possibility—which makes for a better bargaining position if nothing else—we should recall the fact that China has, in fact, repudiated its own financial obligations to other nations. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 21, 2011
Central Bank Monetary Policy Update / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: CentralBankNews
The past week in monetary policy was relatively quiet with only 5 central banks announcing monetary policy decisions, and of those, only 1 adjusting its policy stance. Vietnam was the only bank to adjust monetary policy settings; increasing its reverse repurchase rate by 100 basis points to 15.00%. Meanwhile those that held their monetary policy interest rates unchanged were: Serbia (12.50%), Hungary (6.00%), Sri Lanka (7.00%), and Japan (0.10%). Elsewhere in monetary policy news, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England, and US Federal Open Market Committee all released the minutes from their recent monetary policy meetings.
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Friday, May 20, 2011
ECB Pushing Greece Over Brink / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2011
By: Axel_Merk
Disagreements on how to address Greece's reform process boiled over this week when European Central Bank (ECB) President Trichet walked out of a meeting. Trichet warned if Greece were to extend the maturity of existing debt, the ECB would stop supporting Greece.
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Friday, May 20, 2011
The Effects of Freezing the Fed Balance Sheet / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Frank_Shostak
By the end of June, the expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet is expected to come to an end. According to economic commentators, Fed officials are expected to initially hold the central bank's balance sheet steady — currently at $2.75 trillion — by reinvesting the proceeds from maturing Treasuries and mortgage bonds. Thereafter, these commentators believe, as economic activity starts to gain strength, Fed officials are likely to shrink the size of the balance sheet by selling assets.