Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

Will Job Market from Hell Support Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

April job report shows a terrible US labor market. Coronavirus destroyed 20.5 million jobs, pushing the unemployment rate to almost 15 percent. How far does the number reflect reality – and what does it actually mean for the gold market?

Apocalypse in the US Labor Market
14.7 percent. Remember this value well, as it will go down in history. This is the official US unemployment rate for April calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate soared from 3.5 percent in February and 4.4 percent in March. As the chart below shows, the spike is really historic, as such high level has not been seen in modern history.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

The US Dollar or Silver: Place Your Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Hubert_Moolman

Over the last 50 years there have virtually been no significant Silver rallies during a period when the US Dollar index has been rising.

If you are betting on a massive Silver rally while US dollar strength continues, then you have a very low probability of success. Similarly, if you bet on a massive Silver rally while the US dollar continues a long decline, then you have a great chance of success.

So, for the Silver investor, what the US Dollar index might do over the coming years, is a very important question to answer. No surprise here, since the US dollar has been 100% debased (of Silver).

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold Investors Shouldn’t Be Losing Focus / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: P_Radomski_CFA

The recent volatility in most markets was really extreme, which means that it was easy to lose focus on the things that matter the most in case of the gold market. It was relatively easy to keep one’s focus as far as the fundamental outlook for gold is concerned – it’s quite obvious that the economies around the world are in deep trouble and that the various QEs and money-printing mechanisms are likely to be inflationary, which together is likely to result in stagflation – which gold loves.

On the other hand, it was easy to lose focus with regard to one of gold’s key short- and medium-term drivers – the USD Index. If the USD Index soars, then gold is likely to plunge in the short run, regardless of how favorable other fundamentals are.

Consequently, in today’s free article, we’ll discuss the situation in the USD Index, with emphasis on two key similarities.

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Gold in the year of the Coronavirus Pandemic / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Michael_J_Kosares

What it cannot do is cure the virus.  What it could do, however, according to a good many analysts, is act as an effective hedge against its economic consequences. Since the beginning of the year through April, the metal was up 11.73% during probably the worst period in economic history since the 1930s Great Depression. Below we chronicle what top experts have to say about gold in the year of the pandemic – its portfolio role, its qualities as a disaster hedge, and its price potential.

Monday, May 11, 2020

Hi Ho Silver : Away! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Rambus_Chartology

Tonight I would like to focus in on silver which remains one of the best bargains in the PM complex right now. When I first became acquainted with the PM complex back in early 2002 I learned quickly that just because gold may have had a good rally sometimes the PM stocks move very little which was confusing to me as I thought they should move in tandem. Then there were other times when the PM stocks would rally and gold didn’t move that much. It didn’t make a lot of sense at the time, but markets can be fickle like that.

Another thing I noticed back then was that silver was very weak and wouldn’t respond at all if the PM stock and gold were in rally mode. That has stuck with me all these years. Currently with the PM complex bottoming on March 23 we are seeing a similar scenario playing out where gold and the PM stocks are having a decent rally but silver is still lagging very badly. The thing about silver is that once it’s ready to move the rallies and declines for that matter, can be breathtaking. When the PM complex ended their bull market in 2011 silver was the first one to complete its bull market in April of 2011 while gold and the PM stock indexes didn’t complete their bull market until September a full 5 months later.

Monday, May 11, 2020

The Big Move In Silver May Be Right Now / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

For many years now, metals traders and enthusiasts have been patiently waiting for the move in Silver that we feel its eventually going to happen. 

There is almost a ritual process in the metals market that takes place when a crisis happens.  We’ve written about this in a past article and we’ve highlighted how we believe Silver is one of the absolute best opportunities if/once it breaks out.  It goes something like this…

A.  Silver is often an overlooked “little cousin” to other precious metals like Gold and Platinum.  Many traders would rather trade/acquire Gold vs. Silver.

B.  When a crisis begins to happen, both Gold and Silver tend to collapse an initially as the shock to the markets translates into sales of precious metals to improve cash/margin requirements.

C.  As the crisis continues to unfold, Gold will typically begin a sustained upside price move over many months where Silver may move very little to the upside.  This creates a massive peak in the Gold to Silver ratio.

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Forecasting Crude Oil: This Method Has Been the Undefeated Champion Since 1998 / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: EWI

In case you just landed on Earth via Martian spaceship, 2020 has seen the biggest crash in oil prices ever.

This chart captures crude's three-month, 80%-plus nosedive to 3-decade lows. (Price data as of May 1, 2020 and does not reflect the unprecedented April 20 plunge into negative territory at -$40.32. Yes, minus $40.32).

Sunday, May 10, 2020

Coronapocalypse and Gold - How High Is Too High for the Yellow Metal? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

$2,000, $5,000 or even the Jim Rickard’s $50,000 as the next target for gold. How realistic are these figures – could we see the yellow metal at $5,000 or even higher amid the coronavirus crisis? We invite you thus to read our today’s article and find out how high gold prices can go in this downturn.

The first quarter of 2020 was clearly positive for the gold market, as the chart below shows. The yellow metal gained 6.2 percent from December 30, 2019 to March 31, 2020, moving from $1,515 to $1,609. In April, the bullion went up even further to $1,693, increasing gains to 11.7 percent in 2020 (as of April 17).

Sunday, May 10, 2020

The Illusion of Owning Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Nick_Barisheff

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and similar products account for a significant part of the gold market, with institutional and individual investors using them to implement many of their investment strategies without considering the true risk associated with many aspects of holding non-tangible assets. Gold ETFs are units representing physical gold in paper or dematerialized form, which is very different from owning physical gold. According to the World Gold Council, global gold-backed ETFs added 298 tonnes, or US$23 billion, across all regions in the first quarter of 2020[1]. Total ETF holdings amounted to 3,296 tonnes, representing US$179 billion. The largest ETF is SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) with 1,048 tonnes.

Many investors and financial advisors may be surprised to learn that owning shares in a gold ETF is not the same as owning physical gold. As one of the largest ETFs, GLD states in its prospectus: “…designed to track the price of gold.” Is it wise to choose convenience over holding physical gold?

Since their introduction in 2003, gold-backed ETFs have transformed the gold investment market into an illusion, diverting attention from ownership of physical gold. This is like a magician that has you focused on a distraction while they perform a trick.

Saturday, May 09, 2020

Silver Offers A Great Opportunity / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Hubert_Moolman

The stock market has had a great run during the last decade. It has made some people a good stack of money.

However, the March crash has many wondering what it will do next. Will it continue to crash, or will it continue the bull market?

Is it really worth spending time and effort contemplating its next move? I think not.

The market is currently presenting a great opportunity to lock in those stock market profits, and then even growing it much more.

Saturday, May 09, 2020

Will Gold Decline As Economies Gradually Reopen? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Half the US States and countries like Italy and Germany are gradually easing lockdowns. Taking measured steps, the moves are broadly cheered. Rightfully so? And what does the reopening mean for the gold market?

Epidemics: Bad, Good, and Ugly

By May 6, 2020, more than total 3.6 million of confirmed cases have been reported in the world and more than 250,000 have already died from the COVID-19. In the United States, about 1.2 million of cases have been identified so far, and more than 71,000 people have died. This is bad news.

Friday, May 08, 2020

Junior Gold Miners Ready To Run / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2020

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Both Gold and Silver Futures have been struggling to rally above recent high levels since the start of the global stock market collapse related to the COVID-19 virus event.  Yet, the Junior Gold Miners appear to be telling us the Precious Metals market is boiling hot.

Gold, the bell-weather safe-haven asset, initially collapsed when the US stock market started the massive selloff in late February 2020, then recovered to higher price levels near $1785 recently.  Since reaching these levels, Gold has stalled into a sideways price flag near major resistance.

Silver, on the other hand, is trading near $15.60 and has yet to really recover to anywhere near the levels it had achieved in early January 2020 (near $18.60).

Friday, May 08, 2020

A New Day Has Dawned for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Most resource sector writers (including me) have for a long time been "wrong" about gold and silver.

When they ran from $250 and $5 an ounce, respectively, to $1,920 and $49 in 2011, those who listened, acted, and sold a bit did quite well. We argued the "longer time bullish case" as these metals dropped into their final cyclical bear market graves in late 2015.

But that was then… and this is now.

What we DID get right was that when the Big Turn finally came, it would change directions so swiftly and violently that anyone waiting for "the bottom" would miss it, as rising premiums more than offset declining prices.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Light Crude oil prices have bottomed and starting to rise / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Donald_W_Dony

Light Crude oil prices have dropped an alarming 68 percent since the start of 2020. Brent prices are down 60 percent over the last four months. But recent price action appears to show that the worst of oil's decline is likely over.

As the world economies are still being mauled by the effects of COVID-19, there are growing signs that oil prices are starting to recover.

Thursday, May 07, 2020

Natural Gas Breaks $2.00 On Upside Rally and Next Target / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Overnight, Natural Gas broke above the $2.00 price level as we expected.  On April 6, 2020, we published our research that Natural Gas was setting up a bottom pattern and that our seasonal analysis suggested April and May should prompt a price rally in Natural Gas pushing price levels above $2.40. 

The current rally has broken above a price resistance level near $2.00 and the rally up to $2.40 may happen faster than we expect.  Currently, our Daily Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting the $2.35 area is the first area of resistance.  Beyond that, the next level of resistance would be near $2.90.  Beyond that incredible upside target, the Fibonacci Weekly data is projecting an upper target near $3.60.

Wednesday, May 06, 2020

Economic Collaspe Gold Price $6,600 or $22,000 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: The_Gold_Report

Bob Moriarty of 321gold discusses economic collapse and gold.

I like to read. I read fast and that helps.

I can't quite come to grips with all these guys now coming out with 25-minute videos they insist we watch instead of reading. Do they really believe that everyone has so much free time that they can pay attention to someone chattering away for 25 minutes?

Most of what you read or watch will be noise, meaningless stuff put out by guys who always have an agenda and certainly a bias. The majority has never had an original thought in their lives; all they do is parrot what some other fool has to say. When they want your money and that is pretty often, they figure out what you want to hear. That's what they tell you, just like TV preachers and politicians.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Gold and Silver: Pay Attention to This Noteworthy Record High / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: EWI

Here's what usually occurs in related financial markets when "big changes in social mood are afoot"

Related financial markets tend to move together. For example, gold and silver.

Or, consider stocks. When the Dow Industrials are up on a given trading day, the NASDAQ is usually in the green too. The same applies when the Dow is down. Other major stock indexes tend to close in negative territory as well.

However, when a trend is near exhaustion -- whether bullish or bearish -- "non-confirmations" often happen. A non-confirmation occurs when one market makes a new high (or low), but a related market does not.

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Americans Just Can’t Get Enough Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: MoneyMetals

Precious metals markets enter the month of May with some mixed signals near term.  But the long-term picture continues to look constructive.  All the metals appear to have put in major bottoms during the panic selling of mid to late March.

Barring another wave of virus outbreaks and economic lockdowns, the gradual reopening of state, local, and national economies should start to unleash more industrial and jewelry demand in the not too distant future. 

And the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus being pumped into the financial system will, if nothing else, work toward the debasement of the U.S. dollar. 

Tuesday, May 05, 2020

Silver’s Epic Mean Reversion / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Zeal_LLC

Silver is powering higher in a new bull market after getting clobbered in March’s stock panic.  Investors have been flocking back to silver in the aftermath of that ultra-rare extreme-fear event.  That brutal selloff also utterly wiped out speculators’ upside bets in silver futures, giving them massive room to buy back in.  After being pummeled to record-low levels relative to gold, an epic silver mean reversion higher is underway.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote a popular essay “Big Silver Bull Running!”.  It explained what happened to silver in this recent COVID-19 stock panic, and why silver soared in its wake.  Sucked into that blinding fear maelstrom, silver was thrashed to a miserable 10.9-year low.  This metal plummeted in a near-crash, fueled by speculators’ fastest long purge ever witnessed!  That exhausted their selling, totally resetting longs.

That meant these super-leveraged traders’ capital firepower was fully available to buy back into silver.  And much more bullish than that, strong and relentless silver investment demand emerged since that mid-March collapse.  That’s evident in the soaring silver-bullion holdings of silver’s leading exchange-traded fund, the SLV iShares Silver Trust!  This dominant silver ETF is the best daily proxy for global investment demand.

Monday, May 04, 2020

Gold $3K to $20K Coming? These Pundits (now 34) Think So! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2020

By: Lorimer_Wilson

10 years ago every “analyst” and his brother was hyping the future price of gold and I kept track of their guesses in an article entitled “Gold Going To $2500, $5000, $10000, Even More? These 148 “Analysts Think/Thought So“. None of their forecasts “panned” out (pun intended) but some are back at it again suggesting that we are going to see gold going as high as $20,000.