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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, March 11, 2019

The Fed Is Playing a Dangerous Game / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

Two months ago, Fed Chair Jerome Powell set off a market panic.

He suggested the FOMC would do what it thinks is right and let asset prices go where they may.

They promised at least two if not three more rate hikes in 2019. The stock market fell out of bed.

Fast forward to now. The Fed has given up its tightening dreams and might even loosen policy. It is even (gasp!) losing its fear of inflation.

The problem is that preventing small “crises” on a regular basis eventually causes a very large crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 09, 2019

Unsecured Debt hits £15,400 per UK Household / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Submissions

It has been revealed in statistics provided by the trade union body, the TUC, that unsecured debt in the UK has now reached a new high of £15,400 per British household. To compile its figures, the TUC compared the total amount of money lent in overdrafts, personal loans, payday loans, store cards, and credit card debts.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 07, 2019

How Private Sector Debt Bubble Could Trigger the Next Financial Crisis / Interest-Rates / Financial Crisis 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The $22 trillion official national debt is a much discussed problem, even as politicians exhibit zero motivation to do anything about it. But as big an economic overhang as it is, government debt isn’t likely to trigger the next financial crisis.

Yes, servicing the growing federal debt bubble will depress GDP growth, cause the value of the dollar to drop, and raise inflation risks. But the bubble itself won’t necessarily burst – not anytime soon.

As long as politicians face no political consequences for deficit spending, and as long as the Federal Reserve keeps the Treasury bond market propped up… then many more trillions can be added to the national debt.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, March 07, 2019

What Comes After a Trillion in Student Debt? / Interest-Rates / Student Finances

By: Jared_Dillian

Headline in Bloomberg the other day:

“Millennials Are Facing $1 Trillion in Debt.”

A trillion always sounds like a lot. It is a lot. But while the absolute number is large, that is not the issue.

The issue is what makes up this millennial debt. It’s mostly student loans, and a staggeringly high amount of these loans are in delinquency.

And this is at the top of an economic expansion!

On a societal level, imagine what happens if the economy takes a wrong turn and these student loans—which are already 10% delinquent—go to 40% delinquent?
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Interest-Rates

Saturday, March 02, 2019

Perception of Powell Put in Place – QE4 Looms / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: EWI

By Murray Gunn

For better or worse, the markets perceive that Fed chairman Powell has showed his hand.

The recent Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January meeting revealed almost unanimous agreement to announce a plan soon for ending the Fed's policy of balance sheet reduction. This is the first step in an inevitable march towards the fourth round of quantitative easing (QE4).

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 01, 2019

US Consumer Debt Is Actually in Better Shape Than Ever / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Jared_Dillian

I saw a headline last week:

“More Americans Are Behind On Their Car Loans Than Ever Before”

Sounds ominous. It’s even worse when you dig into it.

Seven million car loans were more than 90 days past due in the fourth quarter of last year. That’s more than during the Great Recession, when unemployment was twice as high.

A lot of the perma-bears seized on this, saying how the economy sucks because everyone is defaulting on their car loans.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Next Recession: Turning Zero Percent Interest Rates Into A 21% Yield / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

If there is a new recession in the next few years, then it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will take extreme measures in response, with the primary response being to swiftly knock short term interest rates back down to zero percent.

For many investors - the combination of recession, heavy-handed Fed interventions, and the return of zero percent interest rate policies (ZIRP) is likely to produce devastating results for their portfolios, and possibly their standard of living in retirement.

At the same time - some quite attractive profit opportunities will also exist, once we learn how to see them. This analysis explores one reasonably simple and practical alternative for turning zero percent interest rates into a 21% annual return.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 25, 2019

Fed Repo Man’s Valentine’s Day Present / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The New York Federal Reserve recently sent out an early Valentine’s Day present to a certain group of individuals. However, this gift wasn’t to overleveraged American consumers; but rather to those who are employed repossessing one of those goodies they can’t afford.  On February 12th the NY Fed made the announcement that a record number of consumers are falling behind on their car payments.  There are now over 7 million car loans past due by at least 90 days as of Q4 2018, along with a record 89 million loans that are outstanding. For Subprime Auto borrowers with credit scores below 620, the delinquency rate spiked to over 16% and the number of subprime borrowers jumped to 20% of loans outstanding. The amount of overdue loans has spiked by 1.3 million since its previous high set in 2011, when the unemployment rate was at 9%.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 22, 2019

US Auto Loans - Americans Missing Car Payments Is a Symptom of a Much Bigger Problem / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross

Transportation is a big issue in most of the US.

It’s so big that for the majority of Americans having a car is a matter of survival. Most people can’t even go to work without a car.

That makes auto payments a high priority. And yet, the number of people who can’t make them is rising fast.

Last week, the Fed warned that auto delinquencies—or missed payments on auto loans—are on a steep rise.
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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 22, 2019

This Money-Destroying Policy Could Soon Become a Reality / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Mauldin

It was my first encounter with what I thought was economic insanity.

More than 10 years ago, I came across the ideas of economist Bill Mitchell of the University of Newcastle in New South Wales.

He was teaching what he called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). I looked into it and quickly dismissed it as silly.

Actually printing money as an economic policy? Get serious.

Fast forward to today, the idea is adopted by new socialist-like movements in the US and abroad. It’s cited by politicians and mainstream media.

There’s a growing number of rationales for adopting MMT into our philosophical base.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, February 21, 2019

QE Forever: The Fed's Dramatic About-face / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Ellen_Brown

“Quantitative easing” was supposed to be an emergency measure, but the Federal Reserve is now taking a surprising new approach toward the policy. The Fed “eased” shrinkage in the money supply due to the 2008-09 credit crisis by pumping out trillions of dollars in new bank reserves. After the crisis, the presumption was the Fed would “normalize” conditions by sopping up the excess reserves through “quantitative tightening” (QT)—raising interest rates and selling the securities it had bought with new reserves back into the market.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 18, 2019

The Corporate Debt Bubble Is Strikingly Similar to the Subprime Mortgage Bubble / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

By Robert Ross : “Housing prices in the US never go down.”

Just about everyone in America believed that in the mid-2000s.

A limited amount of buildable land and a growing population would keep housing demand strong.

So, house prices will continue to rise.

That was the thinking, anyway.

Even some of America’s brightest minds—like former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan—jumped on the stable housing bandwagon.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, February 18, 2019

Stacking The Next QE On Top Of A $4 Trillion Fed Floor / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dan_Amerman

The Federal Reserve is currently communicating to the markets that it will likely pivot, and pause two strategies. The first pivot is to stop increasing interest rates. The second pivot is to stop unwinding the Fed balance sheet.

While the interest rate pause is getting the most attention - the balance sheet pause could be the most important one for investors over the coming years.

As explored herein, the impact of pausing the unwinding the balance sheet is to create a new floor at about $4 trillion in Federal Reserve assets. And if the business cycle has not been repealed and there is another recession - the Fed fully intends to go back to quantitative easing, potentially creating more trillions of dollars to be used for market interventions, and to stack another round of balance sheet expansion right on top of the previous round.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

The $12 Trillion Federal Debt Bombshell / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_J_Kosares

“Who on earth, or in global finance, will buy this looming mountain of Treasuries?”

“Investment in gold now is insurance. It’s not for short-term gain, but for long-term protection. I view gold as the primary global currency. It is the only currency, along with silver, that does not require a counter-party signature. Gold, however, has always been far more valuable per ounce than silver. No one refuses gold as payment to discharge an obligation. Credit instruments and fiat currency depend on the credit worthiness of a counter-party. Gold, along with silver, is one of the only currencies that has an intrinsic value. It has always been that way. No one questions its value, and it has always been a valuable commodity, first coined in Asia Minor in 600 BC.” – Alan Greenspan, former Fed chairman

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Interest-Rates

Friday, February 01, 2019

Fed Statement Commentary / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

While some may have been confused by Fed Chairman Powell's circular statements in yesterday's press conference, the takeaway should be abundantly clear: the period of Fed tightening, is over. The Fed will now hold steady on interest rates, and when they move again, they are more likely to lower rates than to raise them. And while the Fed's program of balance sheet reductions is technically still underway, Powell made it clear that the program is no longer on "automatic pilot" and that the $50 billion per month of bond sales will likely diminish, and ultimately, conclude much earlier than anyone had predicted just a few weeks ago.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, January 30, 2019

Fed Fold Under Pressure, Telegraphs Looser Money Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: MoneyMetals

Two big questions have been front and center for Fed watchers in recent months...

The first is just how high rates could go before stimulus-addicted markets would falter. The second is whether our central bankers would bow to pressure once markets faltered and politicians began calling for the Fed to resume easy money policies.

Both questions now seem to have an answer.

They began to wonder in earnest if sky-high stock market valuations could be supported in an environment where Fed officials promised to keep rates moving even higher for the foreseeable future.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, January 28, 2019

Will 35th Recession Bring A Swift Return To Zero Percent Interest Rates? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Dan_Amerman

Many people view the seven years of zero percent interest rates experienced in the United States between 2008 and 2015 as being safely in the past, with normal times having returned.

As explored in this analysis, so long as the business cycle of expansions and recessions has not been repealed - then we are highly likely to see a swift return to a potentially protracted bout of zero percent interest rates with the next major downturn in the economy.

Indeed, even the staff of the Federal Reserve itself expects more frequent episodes of zero percent interest rates in the future, and for those episodes to be on a more protracted basis.

This just may change everything when it comes to the financial plans of retirement and other long term investors. Zero percent interest rates don't just eviscerate the ability of retirees to earn interest income, but they also fundamentally change stock, bond, housing and precious metals prices, moving them to places that are outside of the historical averages.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Fed Doves Take Flight (But We Are Not in Kansas Anymore) / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

Wise guys trading Fed Funds futures see no more rate hikes in 2019, and a few even imagine a rate cut before year-end. Here are the projections for the next 3 meetings, showing an overwhelming view that the Fed will hold the current 225-250 target rate. Graphics: CME Group

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

The US Interest Rate Hawks Surrender / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Peter_Schiff

They say that there are no atheists in fox holes. Recently it has also become clear there are no monetary hawks in bear markets.

For much of the last decade many conservative market analysts have decried our reliance on monetary stimulus to prop up the economy and the stock market. But in the final months of 2018, in the face of the worst stock market declines in a decade, many of these supposedly pragmatic figures quickly abandoned their convictions. As the markets briefly crossed into bear territory, monetary hawks joined with the doves and President Trump in issuing a full-throated call for the Fed to cancel their planned rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. It appears as if the Fed got the message. Almost overnight, the tone from the Fed softened considerably, causing Wall Street to sound the "all clear."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, January 18, 2019

Debt, Division, Dysfunction, and the March to National Bankruptcy / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: MoneyMetals

Never in our lifetimes has American politics been so marked by division and dysfunction.

The longest partial government shutdown in history occurred after the Democrat-controlled Congress wouldn’t compromise with President Trump on a border wall. The impasse is but one symptom of a deeper malady – one that threatens to wreak wider social and financial instability in the years ahead.

Put plainly, the pillars of the American system as we have known it are eroding.

No longer are we unified in support of the Constitution and a (more or less) free market economy. A growing faction within one party favors socialism and outright rejects foundational American principles such as free speech, gun rights, and limited government.

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