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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, November 26, 2021

Is a Bigger Drop in Gold Price Just Around the Corner? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

As expected, after the applauded increase, gold fell. But will it manage to bounce off the bottom or rather slide lower?

Today’s analysis is going to be all about gold, and for a good reason. Based on yesterday’s and Monday’s sessions, November is now a down month for gold. Please let that sink in.

Gold ended last week above $1,850, with almost everyone in the market cheering and making bets, on how soon gold will move above $1,900 and then rally to new yearly highs. It was after the completion of the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, after all!

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 24, 2021

How Silver Can Conquer $50+ in 2022 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Two realistic price movement scenarios can see silver finally ascend through the magnetic $50 level in 2022. A case can be made that either – or perhaps both – have a strong likelihood of taking place.

First Scenario:

In December, silver moves up from a strong multiple-year base, with an impulse leg-driven First Quarter, punching through strong resistance and spiking into the low '$40's before retreating to its breakout just above $30.

It builds a broad $15 sideways HSR (horizontal support-resistance) price box between $43 and $28.

Volume strengthens on up days, and lessens on down days, creating a descending technical triangle.

In April, silver breaks out of its four-month coil and drives into new multiple year highs between $44 and $55 per ounce, creating spikes above $50, but without managing three closes (above a given price, in this case the historic $50) David Morgan looks for to validate a bullish (or bearish) impulse leg breakout.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Gold / Silver Ratio / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The chart shows that Silver is in a long-term losing battle against Gold, basically Silver is mostly not a precious metal anymore, it really is an industrial metal, well that's what the chart implies for at the time of panic when everything was crashing which commodity did people turn to? It was GOLD! NOT SIlver! So maybe it is time for the Silver bugs to ditch the alternative to fiat currency mantra and realise that it may have been true at one point many, many years ago but not for some time.

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Commodities

Monday, November 22, 2021

Cannabis ETF MJ Basing & Volatility Patterns / Commodities / Cannabis

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Recently, the Cannabis sector has shown signs of increased volume, volatility, and a reasonably strong potential for a price base. Volume started increasing near mid-September as the price of MJ fell below $15. This support level originated from late December 2020 after a significant rally trend from recent lows near $10 – when the Reddit retail trader event started to unfold.

I wrote about this sector and these opportunities in many articles before the incredible rally in late 2020 into 2021.

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Commodities

Saturday, November 20, 2021

Inflation Risk: Milton Friedman Would Buy Gold Right Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Powell maintains that inflation is transitory, but the monetary theory of inflation suggests otherwise. So, elevated inflation could stay with us!,

Some economists downplay the risk stemming from elevated inflation, saying that comparisons to the 1970s style stagflation appear unfounded. They say that labor unions are weaker and economies are less dependent on energy than in the past, which makes inflationary risks less likely to materialize. Isabel Schnabel, Board Member of the European Central Bank, even compared the current inflationary spike to a sneeze, i.e., “the economy’s reaction to dust being kicked up in the wake of the pandemic and the ensuing recovery”. Are those analysts right?

Well, in a sense, they are. The economy is not in stagnation with little or no growth and a rising unemployment rate. On the contrary, the US labor market is continuously improving. It’s also true that both the bargaining power of workers and energy’s share in overall expenditure have diminished over the last fifty years.
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Commodities

Friday, November 19, 2021

Gold Mid-Tier Stocks Q3’21 Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in their sector’s sweet spot for upside potential have been powering higher recently.  They’ve blasted to several major breakouts after getting bombed out during gold-futures speculators’ taper tantrum on Fed-tightening fears last summer.  These smaller gold miners just finished their Q3’21 earnings season, revealing whether their fundamentals support more big stock-price gains ahead.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by their production rates.  Small juniors mine less than 300k ounces of gold annually, medium mid-tiers have outputs running from 300k to 1m, large majors yield over 1m, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2m.  Mid-tiers offer a unique mix of sizable diversified gold production, considerable output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains.

Mid-tiers are much-less-risky than juniors, and amplify gold’s uplegs much more than majors.  Ironically the leading mid-tier gold-stock benchmark is the misleadingly-named GDXJ Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF.  It has evolved to be dominated by mid-tiers yielding quarterly outputs of 75k to 250k ounces.  True juniors now only account for a smaller fraction of the weighting in this second-most-popular gold-stock ETF.

Just over a third the size of its big-brother GDX major-gold-miners ETF, GDXJ has certainly had a wild ride this year.  Showing mid-tiers’ huge potential, GDXJ skyrocketed 188.9% in a massive upleg over just 4.8 months into early August 2020!  The extreme greed and overboughtness that spawned necessitated a normal and healthy major correction to rebalance sentiment, so the mid-tiers fell 32.0% into late March 2021.

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Commodities

Friday, November 19, 2021

Investors Expect High Inflation. Golden Inquisition Ahead? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation expectations reached a record high. Is gold preparing a counterattack to punish gold bears?

In a classic Monty Python sketch, nobody expects the Spanish inquisition. In the current marketplace, everyone expects high inflation. As the chart below shows, the inflation expectations embedded in US Treasury yields have recently risen to the highest level since the series began in 2003.
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Commodities

Thursday, November 18, 2021

Biden Signs a Bill to Revive Infrastructure… and Gold! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Gold rallied thanks to the changed narrative on inflation, and Biden’s infrastructure plan can only add to the inflationary pressure. Huge price moves ahead?

I have a short quiz for you! What the government should do to decrease inflation that reached the highest level in 30 years?

A) Decrease its expenditure to make room for the Fed to hike the federal funds rate.

B) Press the US central bank to tighten its monetary policy.

C) Deregulate the markets and lower taxes to boost the supply side of the economy.

D) Introduce a huge infrastructure plan that will multiply spending on energy, raw materials, and inputs in general.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Silver vs US Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

One would expect an inverse relationship between the US Dollar and Silver. The below chart shows periods when the dollar has been falling (USD Index) in RED and rising in blue, during which time there does tend to be a tendency for Silver price to exhibit an inverse relationship to varying degree.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 17, 2021

Silver Supply and Demand Balance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

So if Silver is closer to being an industrial commodity then a precious metal then one should look at supply and industrial demand for Silver for signs and portents of what the price may do.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Are gold prices really bottoming? That all depends on the indicator / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Donald_W_Dony

Holding gold has largely been about a hedge for inflation, weak US dollar or a store of safety during times of trouble. At present, it is the inflationary pressures that is the main driving force for the yellow metal.

Inflationary pressures are building around the world as the global economy tries to reopen. Consumer prices are sharply rising with the US Inflation rate posting a three-decade high of 6.2% in October and Germany hitting 4.5%, the highest level since 1993.

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Gold Stocks technically short-term bullish, but… / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Gary_Tanashian

An update of the gold stock bounce

As a TA, I respect charts first and foremost. On occasion that respect has burned me as I’ve missed big profit opportunity or not seen a disaster unfolding that the charts missed. But much more often it helps me profit or saves me from disastrous ends. TA is just one tool in the box. An important one, but it should not stand alone. With the gold stocks especially, the correct macro-fundamentals matter.

Lately, with respect to the HUI Gold Bugs index, TA has helped me (and NFTRH subscribers) manage a low born of over-bearish sentiment at a key long-term support area (230 ), one of three downside targets we’ve had open since the correction began in summer 2020. For management of the correction and its bounces we’ve used various charts of varying detail and time frames. But last week in NFTRH 680 we simplified to the daily view below. With the rally now in full flight it is time to be paying attention to what may come next.

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Commodities

Monday, November 15, 2021

Gold’s run shows interest rate hikes not coming soon / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Richard_Mills

Gold continued to rally on Tuesday, as investors and metal traders priced in expectations that central banks will keep interest rates low until late 2022 at the earliest.

At time of writing spot gold and gold futures were both changing hands at about USD$1,833/oz.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Gold Price Trend Implications for Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Clearly at times of market panic investors rush to Gold and then eventually once the dust settles soon realise in comparison Silver is cheap and thus plays catchup, usually swinging from cheap to expensive against Gold. So allowing for a delayed reaction there does exist a strong correlation between the Gold price and Silver. In terms of trend both Gold and Silver appear to be correcting their 2020 bull runs so should resolve upwards once the correction ends.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Silver Previous Trend Forecast Recap / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

My last in-depth Silver analysis:

29th Jan 2020 - Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020

Initially I am expecting a very volatile trading range between a low of $16.50 to a high of $19 for the next 3 months or so, following which the Silver price 'should' respond to a Gold price rally and follow the yellow metal higher. The trends not going to be pretty but I expect Silver to trade above $20, and likely reach a peak near $21 later in the year as the forecast graph illustrates.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Inflation to the Moon - Gold Wears a Space Suit! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation rears its ugly head, surging at the fastest pace since 1990. The yellow metal has finally reacted as befits an inflation hedge: went up.

Do you know what ambivalence is? It is a state of having two opposing feelings at the same time –this is exactly how I feel now. Why? Well, the latest BLS report on inflation shows that consumer inflation surged in October, which is something I hate because it lowers the purchasing power of money, deteriorating the financial situation of most people, especially the poorest and the least educated who don’t know how to protect against rising prices.

On the other hand, I feel satisfaction, as it turned out that I was right in claiming that high inflation would be more persistent than the pundits claimed. After the September report on inflation, I wrote: “I’m afraid that consumer inflation could increase even further in the near future”. Sieron vs. Powell: 1:0!
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Commodities

Sunday, November 14, 2021

Gold Price Reaches 15-Month Flag Apex / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Since the start of the COVID-19 virus event, Gold has rallied more than +26% to reach highs near $2090 on August 7, 2020. Yet, over the past 15 months, Gold has been trailing downward in a sideways price pattern. This price rotation has set up a very broad Pennant/Flag formation in Gold that has recently reached the APEX of the Flag setup.

This is very important for two reasons. First, as the global central banks begin to plan and prepare for more normalized monetary policy, and address credit excesses and inflationary price concerns, the advantages of Gold as a hedging instrument become more valuable. Secondarily, after a massive rise in asset prices and an even bigger global attempt to stimulate the economy after the COVID-19 virus event, the world has never been in this scenario. Near-zero interest rates, excessive amounts of money and credit throughout the world, asset prices showing near hyper-inflation trends, and the global central banks taking very little action to address any future economic concerns.

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Commodities

Friday, November 12, 2021

How Strange! Gold Rises on Strong Payrolls! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

US economy added 531,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations. Gold reacted… in a bullish way, and jumped above $1,800!

The October nonfarm payrolls came surprisingly strong. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added 531,000 jobs last month, much above the expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 450,000 added jobs). So, it’s a nice change from the last two disappointing reports. What’s more, the August and September numbers were significantly revised up – by 235,000 combined. Let’s keep in mind that we also have the additions of 1,091,000 in July and 366,000 in August (after an upward revision).
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Commodities

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Gold Breakout Confirmed... Almost / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

Gold finished solidly above the $1,800/oz level on Friday, marking the yellow metal’s best weekly close since late August. More importantly, gold may be breaking out of a larger consolidation pattern that has been in force since prices peaked in August of last year.

Prices edged above the descending triangle line – although perhaps not convincingly so.

If the breakout is real, then we should see a follow-through advance this week to confirm it.

Interpreting chart patterns is more of an art than a science. Any given technical setup, whether bullish or bearish in appearance, can fail.

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Commodities

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Calling the Precious Metals Bull / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Monica_Kingsley

S&P 500 paused to a degree, but bonds didn‘t – we‘re far from a peak. That though doesn‘t mean a brief correction (having a proper look at the chart, sideways consolidation not reaching more than a precious couple of percentage points down) won‘t arrive still this month. It‘s a question of time, and I think it would be driven by tech weakness as the sector has reached lofty levels. It‘ll go higher still, but this is the time for value and smallcaps.

And when the dollar starts rolling over to the downside (I‘m looking at the early Dec debt ceiling drama to trigger it off), emerging markets would love that. And commodities with precious metals too, of course – sensing the upcoming greenback weakness has been part and parcel of the gold and silver resilience of late. Precious metals are only getting started, but the greatest fireworks would come early spring 2022 when the Fed‘s failure to act on inflation becomes broadly acknowledged.

For now, they‘re still getting away with the transitory talking points, and chalking it down to supply chain issues. As if these could solve the balance sheet expansion or fresh (most probably again short-dated) Treasuries issuance (come Dec) – the Fed is also way behind other central banks in raising rates. Canada, Mexico and many others have already moved while UK and Australia are signalling readiness – the U.S. central bank is joined by ECB in hesitating.

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