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Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Commodities

Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Remembering Wharton: Detecting When the Fed Turns 'For or Against You' / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger remembers lessons learned years ago from a three-year course in "Stocks and Bonds 101," and how those principles still apply today.

In 1983, I was offered the opportunity to attend a three-year course in “Stocks and Bonds 101” courtesy of the Securities Industry Association. With little or no appreciation of what that course might actually do for me, I eagerly accepted because the main perk was a shingle for my office emblazoned with the title “The Wharton School” with my name just below it and signature-verified by a bunch of northeast blue bloods.

That three-year journey had a remarkable impact on my psyche. I met some of my earlier heroes like Martin Zweig, Jeremy Seigel, Julius Westheimer, and Gail Dudack, all of whom were really interesting personalities. But none were as impactive as a little-known trader called Robert Gordon. At first glance, I thought that he was the perfect image of a New Yorker – a cross between Robert DeNiro and John Travolta but, at maybe 5 feet 9 inches tall, at least a few inches taller. He was a disciple of the legendary Ivan Boesky (an arbitrageur who went to prison for insider trading in 1987), known for his understanding and skill in the art of taking advantage in inefficiencies in securities pricing.

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Commodities

Monday, December 20, 2021

Not Only Gold Lacks Energy – We All Do Now / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

First a pandemic, then inflation, and now an energy crisis. Should you buy gold when preparing for the winter?

Brace yourselves, winter is coming! And this time I’m deadly serious, as there is a global energy crisis. Not only does gold lack energy to fuel its rally right now, but people from all over the world lack it to fuel their operations and to heat their houses. Apparently, the coronavirus pandemic wasn’t enough, so we also have to deal with inflation, supply bottlenecks, and the energy crisis. I guess there is nothing else to do now but wait for the frogs to start falling from the sky.
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Commodities

Sunday, December 19, 2021

Gold – Nothing More, Nothing Less, Nothing Else / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

GOLD – NOTHING MORE

Gold is real money; nothing more. That is a hard pill for some investors and advisors to swallow. Actually, it is the second part of the statement that raises the most concern.

More than just a few people will readily affirm their belief that gold is real money. Beyond that, though, there is a tendency to get carried away with descriptions and analyses regarding “fundamentals” for gold.

Those fundamentals are many and varied; but they have nothing to do with gold or its price.

As the cumulative loss in purchasing power of the US dollar becomes more apparent, and as the price of gold continues to rise, more people take notice.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 18, 2021

WTI & Brent Crude Oil – How Will Inflation Impact Energy Prices? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Once inflation is set free, it never returns to the previous state. The fight requires fast thinking, but major banks still sit on the fence.

On the global economic scene, major central banks still don’t really know which pedal to use - either the one to fight inflation (tapering) or the other one to keep taking their shoot of quantitative easing (money-printing) policies. Inflation, however, is like toothpaste: once you got it out, you can’t get it back in again. So, instead of squeezing the tube too strongly, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to maintain an accommodating tone this week, which could eventually benefit the price of black gold.

Crude oil prices were looking for a direction to take on Tuesday, after mixed reports emerged, one rather pessimistic on global demand (published by EIA) and the other, more optimistic over sustained demand, from the OPEC group. Indeed, the first report came from the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday morning. It slightly lowered its forecast of world oil demand for 2021 and 2022, by 100,000 barrels per day on average, mainly to consider the lower use of air fuels due to new restrictions on international travel.

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Commodities

Thursday, December 16, 2021

Inflation Beast Roars - Gold Only Modestly Up / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The inflation beast is growing stronger. Unfortunately for gold bulls, we cannot say the same about the yellow metal. Is sacrifice going on tomorrow?

“Woe to you, oh earth and sea, for the Devil sends the beast with wrath, because he knows the time is short (...). Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast,” says the Bible. The current number of the beast is not 6.66%, but 6.8% - this is how high the CPI annual inflation rate was in November.

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Commodities

Monday, December 13, 2021

Gold Stuck Between High Inflation and Strong Dollar / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Inflation supports gold, the expected Fed’s reaction to price pressure – not. Since gold ended November with a small gain, what will December bring?

I have good and bad news. The good is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. The bad –is that the price of gold rose 2% in November. It depends on the perspective we adopt. Given all the hawkish signals sent by the Fed and all the talk about tapering of quantitative easing and the upcoming tightening cycle, even a small increase is an admirable achievement.

However, if we focus on the fact that US consumer inflation rose in October to its highest level in 30 years, and that real interest rates have stayed deeply in negative territory, gold’s inability to move and stay above $1,800 looks discouraging.
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Commodities

Monday, December 13, 2021

Gold Holding Up as Cryptos Get Hammered / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

As Bitcoin made new all-time highs in recent weeks, an increasing number of investors referred to it as the “new gold.”

Sure, Bitcoin and other digital currencies may have some of the same potential benefits as gold, being alternative stores of value that exist outside the banking system. Cryptos are a far cry from hard money, however, and recent price action may be indicative of why.

This last weekend, Bitcoin prices were hammered. Bitcoin declined from just under $57,000 to a swing low of just over $46,000. That is a $10k drop in a matter of days!

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Commodities

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Inflationary Hubris, the Fed & Gold: Can Inflation Actually Be Good for Everyday Americans? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: The_Gold_Report

Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses Fed actions and how they affect precious metals.

I had thought that prior to this week, I had seen pretty much everything when it comes to the financial press shoveling out Wall Street “spin” in order to proper up the markets prior to the end-of-year bonus-calculating period. I was wrong. The most widely watched financial news medium in the world is CNBC, the very place where the phrase “talking heads” found its origin and the place where, during the dotcom boom of the 1990’s, former Trump Presidential Advisor Larry “Strong-Dollar-I-Hate-Gold” Kudlow would huddle with partner in crime Jim Cramer in a constant lovefest praising the second-largest financial bubble in history.

Kudlow, being a Trump supporter, can no longer show his Republican face in public while Jim Cramer recently tweeted out his esteemed opinion that the U.S. military should enforce the vaccine mandate, ever-ignorant of the U.S. constitution and of the entire concept of “Freedom of Choice.”

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Commodities

Friday, December 10, 2021

Biden’s IRS Is Mining for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: MoneyMetals

The Biden administration is moving aggressively to raise revenues by any means necessary – including going after precious metals held in so-called “home storage” or “checkbook” retirement accounts.

The IRS recently nailed a couple with a $300,000 tax bill for holding gold coins designated as Individual Retirement Account (IRA) assets – but stored in their home safe rather than at a depository.

The couple had unfortunately relied on marketing material from a promoter who claimed that setting up a limited liability company owned by their self-directed IRA would allow them to store their coins at home instead of through a third-party custodian.

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Commodities

Friday, December 10, 2021

Weak November Payrolls Won’t Help Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

November employment report was mixed. Unfortunately for gold, however, it won’t stop the Fed’s hawkish agenda.

Nonfarm payrolls disappointed in November. As the chart below shows, the US labor market added only 210,000 jobs last month. This number is much lower than both October’s figure (546,000 gains) and the market expectations (MarketWatch’s analysts forecasted 573,000 added jobs). So, it’s a huge blow to those optimistic about the US economy.

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Commodities

Monday, December 06, 2021

Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The hawkish revolution continues. Powell, among the screams of monetary doves, suggested this week that tapering could be accelerated in December!

People live unaware that an epic battle between good and evil, the light and dark side of the Force, hard-working entrepreneurs and tax officials is waged every day. What’s more, hawks and doves constantly fight as well, and this week brought a victory for the hawks among the FOMC.

The triumph came on Tuesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress. He admitted that inflation wasn’t “transitory”, as it is only expected to ease in the second half of 2022. Inflation is therefore more persistent and broad-based than the Fed stubbornly maintained earlier this year, contrary to evidence and common sense:
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Commodities

Monday, December 06, 2021

The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive / Commodities / Investing 2021

By: OilPrice_Com

The electric revolution is the biggest change the auto industry has seen since Ford invented the assembly line in 1913.

But an impending supply shortage has put one critical resource in the global spotlight.

With the meteoric rise of Tesla, nearly every major automaker has shifted its sights towards producing the next great electric vehicle.

Ford made headlines this year with its announcement of the all-electric F-150 Lightning, which now has upwards of 200,000 pre-orders.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 04, 2021

Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

You see a commodity going down, then it reverses and starts teasing you with an upward move… only to end up declining further. Is this the case now?

I started yesterday’s analysis with a question that I then replied to, explaining why I thought that it wasn’t necessarily a good idea take profits from one’s short positions at this time, as the corrective upswings could be nothing to write home about, and that it might not be that easy to get back in the short positions at better (higher) prices.

Well, yesterday’s session showed exactly what I meant, and the 4-hour chart found below provides the details.

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Commodities

Saturday, December 04, 2021

GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Kelsey_Williams

Over the past year, the price of gold has made repeated attempts to move higher. Looking at a one-year price history of GLD in the chart (source) below, there is  a series of progressively lower highs which seems to indicate staunch resistance to higher gold prices…

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Commodities

Friday, December 03, 2021

The Masters of the Universe and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Michael_J_Kosares

That small group of investment bankers – those Tom Wolfe dubbed the Masters of the Universe – made its fortune trading U.S. Treasuries. It still plays the same role today it always has but no longer occupies the center stage for Wall Street’s bond market. Instead, that role now belongs to the Federal Reserve. Since the introduction of quantitative easing in 2008, it has built a $5.57 trillion stockpile of U.S. Treasuries  – a holding equal to almost 20% of the nearly $29 trillion national debt.  Even more troubling, it purchased a mind-boggling 60% t0 80% of the federal debt issued since 2010, according to a recent Wall Street Journal report.

“At 10:10 a.m. most workdays on Wall Street,” writes Liz McCormick in a recent Bloomberg column (under the unsettling headline, One Trader Calls the Shots in the Treasury Bond Market) ­officials at the Federal Reserve wade into the Treasury bond market. For the next 20 minutes, they proceed to snap up bonds of all shapes and sizes. They’re impervious to price moves, and they never sell. An indiscriminate bond-buying machine, they’ve now amassed a $5.5 trillion stockpile of the debt.” Wolfe’s Masters of the Universe have been replaced by one omnipresent, spectacularly powerful, and as it turns out, fickle Master of the Universe – America’s central bank. 

“For almost two years,” says Gillian Tett, in a recent Financial Times editorial, “a frightening question has haunted the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve. No, this is not whether the Fed can engineer a smooth exit from quantitative easing; nor whether this is the right moment to switch the governor (and policy). The question I am referring to is whether the U.S. Treasuries market is robust enough to handle the shocks that might arise from those first two problems. For while the U.S. government bond market used to be considered to be the world’s most liquid and deep asset class, in March 2020 that cozy assumption was smashed apart.”

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Commodities

Tuesday, November 30, 2021

Can You Hear It? That’s the Crowd Booing Gold’s Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Even though the technicals have been predicting this for several months, people were still taken aback by gold’s fall — that’s why they are booing.

While the precious metals received a round of applause for their performances in October, I warned on several occasions that the celebration was premature. And with gold, silver, and mining stocks resuming their 2021 downtrends, investors’ cheers have turned into jeers in short order.

To explain, I warned previously that the GDX ETF could rally to or slightly above $35 (the senior miners reached this level intraday on Nov. 12, moving one cent above it). However, with the GDX ETF’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) signaling overbought conditions, I highlighted just how quickly the air often comes out of the balloon. For context, the blue vertical dashed lines below depict the sharp reversals that followed after the GDX ETF’s RSI approached or superseded 70.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Silver Long-term Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver during the post pandemic gold rush managed to break above resistance at $21 that propelled the price 50% higher to just over $30 which the price is now correcting from, and silver being silver the trends tend to be deep and messy, hence why Silver has just about retraced the whole of the breakout move.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Silver Mining Stocks Fundamentals / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2021

By: Zeal_LLC

The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher recently, starting to mean revert out of deep capitulation lows.  Those improving technicals have started thawing the bearish sentiment that plagued this tiny contrarian sector last summer.  The silver stocks’ latest earnings season wrapping up in mid-November revealed how these miners are actually faring operationally and financially.  Do fundamentals justify more gains?

The silver-stock world is really small, with primary silver miners deriving over half their revenues from producing the white metal increasingly-rare.  Only a handful of exchange-traded funds track this forgotten sector, led by the SIL Global X Silver Miners ETF.  While also miniscule with just $1.2b in net assets in mid-November, SIL is the best-available sector benchmark.  The silver stocks have had a wild ride this year.

Their price action closely mirrors gold stocks’, as silver’s dominant primary driver has always been gold.  So SIL’s swings this year closely tracked those in the leading GDX gold-stock ETF like usual.  Silver stocks were enjoying a solid young upleg last spring, with SIL surging 27.5% between late March to early June.  But silver and thus silver stocks were sucked into gold’s sharp mid-June selloff on Fed-tightening fears.

Gold’s taper tantrum for the Fed starting to slow its epic quantitative-easing money printing unfolded in the months leading into that actual announcement.  Between mid-June to late September, several bouts of heavy-to-extreme gold-futures selling crushed the entire precious-metals complex.  The resulting silver-stock carnage hammered SIL 30.2% lower climaxing in an ugly capitulation, fueling serious bearish psychology.

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Commodities

Sunday, November 28, 2021

Crude Oil Didn’t Like Thanksgiving Turkey This Year / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Submissions

It appears that the US markets didn’t find the Thanksgiving turkey very tasty this year.

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Commodities

Friday, November 26, 2021

SILVER Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2021

By: Nadeem_Walayat

SILVER Price Trend Analysis

Silver trend over the past 2 years shows a market that has repeated FAILED to break higher, despite going so far as breaching $30 early 2021. However all attempts have resolved towards the bottom of the trading range at $22 where I deemed that the most recent down trend off of a lower high of $29 was probably going to see Silver break below $22 which would target a trend to support zone of $18-$19, a break that has now come to pass.

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