Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Precious Points: Don't Fear the Repo / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
Joe Nicholson writes “Even if the Fed ignites a rally on Wednesday, as it has in recent months, profit-taking, instead of frenetic new buying, is still the most probable ultimate result.” ~Precious Points: The Ennui on the Way , May 6, 2007
After starting off the week with a bit of a haircut, metals traded in a tight range until Wednesday afternoon, when the Fed statement sparked a rally that was soundly sold off the next day. Stocks ultimately closed roughly flat for the week, but on top of a rally that seems to have inspired new hope for Monday. The question is whether or not to believe the hype.
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Saturday, May 12, 2007
Inflation and Precious Metals, Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Paul_Saxena
"In an ideal world with a stable monetary base (zero monetary inflation), prices of almost everything (with a few exceptions) would be in decline. That would be a sign of real economic progress…"
INFLATION/DEFLATION - Analysts and economists seem to be divided over this issue. According to some market observers (including me), we are living in a highly inflationary environment. After all, money supply growth is extremely strong in most countries (Figure 1) and this represents inflation.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
Gold Price Drop: A gift horse / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...This week's sell-off in gold was only to be expected. It opened Monday lower from 12 months earlier for the first time since 2001..."
WHAT TO MAKE of gold's 2.6% drop after failing to hold $690 for the third time in two months?
"The market sees a falling gold price as a gift horse," reckons Jon Bergtheil, head of metals at J.P.Morgan in London .
"The fundamentals are still very positive."
How positive exactly? Other than the price, nothing has changed since Monday. The gold market is still getting squeezed between tightening supply and rising long-term demand.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
“CORN BASED” Ethanol, part II the dominoes begin to fall! / Commodities / Ethanol
By: Ty_Andros
Eight to 12 weeks ago I penned a piece on CORN BASED ethanol in the “Fingers of Instability” series, it is a careful overview of the industry and its potential benefits (NONE) and pitfalls (you can access it at TedBits March 14, 2007 I strongly recommend you read it before beginning this commentary, it is time well spent), now in part two we take a look at the burgeoning problems we outlined in that piece. It is a disaster, written larger and larger like a boulder hitting water the waves emanating outward are killer waves to so much more. It is like a game of dominoes where once set in motion it is difficult to race ahead of the chain reactions to avoid further downfalls.
El Ninja, has emerged off the coast of South America . What does this mean? It means a wet spring and hot summer if history is correct. The wet spring has become a reality , we will see about the hot summer part of the forcast. Having grown up in the corn belt of Lincoln , Nebraska I understand corn fairly well. I still remember some of my earliest summer employment De tasseling corn. It was grueling work in the hottest part of the summer, but as a young boy I was very strong and it was always wonderful to finish the work and emerge with a POCKETFUL of cash. It was great money for me at the time.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
The Coming Explosion in Energy prices! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Ty_Andros
NIMBY is defined as “not in my back yard” and is set to strike at your pocketbook “RIGHT NOW”. For decades the Democrats controlled Congress and in return for campaign contributions and support they worked with environmentalist, and trial lawyer constituents, passing laws and regulations which allowed them to manipulate the court system to basically block energy production in the United States, a refinery hasn't been built in over 30 years.
Energy discovery and development has been severely restricted in the United States . Internationally, Oil and Natural gas production have been nationalized, and the results are predictable, the more government becomes involved the less we get of whatever they get involved in. As they for the most part suck the life and money out of whatever they touch.
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Friday, May 11, 2007
China Buying Gold! / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Money_and_Markets
Larry Edelson writes : I have absolutely no doubt that someday, and soon, you're going to hear that China has been actively buying gold as part of its strategy to diversify its $1.2 trillion in cash reserves.
When you hear that news, every broker and analyst under the sun is going to tell you to buy gold and gold mining shares like crazy.
But don't listen to them because it will be too late. By the time the Chinese admit they have been buying gold, I can assure you, we will be much closer to the top of the gold market than the bottom.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Mining Merger Mania : Say it Three Times Fast / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Michael_K_Dawson
I was shocked last week when I read a report from Merrill Lynch stating that BHP Billiton could possibly be a target of a private equity bid. BHP Billiton is the largest mining company in the world. I have always envisioned it as the acquirer not the acquiree. However, with so much money at stake - anything is possible.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
GOLD THOUGHTS - Speculative Funds have created multiple buying opportunities for Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Complacency over the demise of the U.S. dollar has allowed continued expansion of the yen and Swiss carry trade loans. Likewise, the imminent U.S. recession is being glossed over. This week the FOMC will confirm the ineptness of U.S. monetary policy by doing and saying either something or nothing, which may or may not be interpreted positively by some.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Global Economic Growth Outlook and Gold / Commodities / Metals & Mining
By: Neil_Charnock
It should be of some interest to the global investment community, in particular those that make money from the commodities boom and gold. I am referring to the performance of the global Resource Bourse - the ASX… because it is more heavily weighted in resource stocks than any other national stock market. Well that and banks too, very top heavy with BHP and RIO and some larger commodity producers.
This is a land of giant nuggets, massive mineralized belts and a disproportionate amount of mining activity, 3 rd highest global gold producer at present. See the chart below as an indicator, the ASX is booming and we enjoy a world class sovereign risk rating.
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Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Is Apex Silver Mines a Buy? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Roland_Watson
In the current issues of the Silver Analyst, we have been analyzing and ranking 63 stocks, which have been known, perceived or touted as silver plays in the last 4 years. Clearly some come out as losers while others look like being winners for the next surge in silver prices. One stock caught my attention recently for technical and fundamental reasons and that is Apex Silver Mines Ltd.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
Miners Lobbied Department of Energy to Revive Uranium Prices / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
During the uranium bull markets of the 1950s and the 1970s, it was the United States Government’s policies which stimulated uranium production. Both actions were followed by multi-year rallies and brought about then-historical uranium price peaks. Each of the previous two bull markets ended when the federal government changed the existing policy.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2007
Commodities Market Wrap - Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Douglas_V_Gnazzo
Gold gained $7.90 (1.16%) for the week, closing at $689.70. It was gold's highest close in 8 weeks. Its intraday high for the week was $693.20, and its intraday low was $670.00.
Below is gold's daily chart, which shows two support lines - the first is closest to the present price, and the second is further below.
Over the short term we are of the opinion that the first support line holding is the most probable scenario. If it holds then a test of the highs would be in order.
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Monday, May 07, 2007
Gold and Silver Analysis - Precious Points: The Ennui On the Way / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
Joe Nicholson writes : “Not until Thursdays' productivity report is there a significant chance of domestic economics driving a rally in metals… The path upward has been reopened for gold and silver to drift higher towards a retest of the recent highs, which will provide significant resistance. Just as many speculative traders go long, the threat is that a failure from the $700 area would either appear to be a double top or be labeled a corrective move up before a new impulsive wave down.” ~ Precious Points: Why Not Gold? , April 28, 2007Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, May 07, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 7th May 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
Gold just can't seem to make up its mind where it wants to go. I'll tell it – GO HIGHER – but will it listen?
GOLD
Since last showing the long term P&F chart in the 13 April 2007 commentary nothing has changed. No new X to suggest a further advance and no O s to indicate a reversal of direction. This either shows that from a long term perspective gold has reached somewhat of a stalemate or that the latest P&F unit criteria was too large. With $15 units and a 2 unit reversal criteria gold has a $45 range within which to move without affecting the P&F . This is what it has been doing for the past three weeks now. I don't expect this stalemate to last too much longer, but who knows?
Friday, May 04, 2007
Central Bank Gold Sales To End Prematurely? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the last couple of months a great deal of emphasis has been placed on Central Bank sales. These have been heavy and along with diminished E.T.F. purchases and even net sales, have held the gold price back. But a major point has been overlooked in these commentaries. How long can they last?
The amount of sales per year is not the sole limitation on these sales, but the announced total sales by each individual Central Bank is the defined limit. Our Table below highlights the situation entirely.
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Friday, May 04, 2007
Gold Breakout Delayed Targeting $865 this Summer / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Jim_Willie_CB
All the conditions were there, a euro currency breakout, a British sterling currency breakout, and pronounced USDollar weakness. The sterling exchange rate even hit $2.00 to capture a tremendous amount of attention. The denials streamed in on how the weaker USDollar is not such a big deal, which always serves as a confirmation of a dire situation.
Imagine a harlot on a London Piccadilly Square citing her extra 30 pounds around the haunches, her heavy paint to cover remnants of faded femininity, the complexion lost long ago, and her deep whisky voice, as she actually claims she still possesses her intense sexual spark. The crippled USDollar cannot buck the passage of time and inexorable destruction through unfettered monetary inflation abuse and colossal irresponsibility.
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Friday, May 04, 2007
HUI/Gold Ratio Trends / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
Adam Hamilton writes : As we continue our fascinating journeys of discovery as students of the markets, we do a lot of charting work at Zeal. Recently a chart that I hadn't given much thought to for the better part of 8 months caught my attention again. It was a HUI/Gold Ratio chart, also known as HGR in this essay.
The HUI/Gold Ratio is as simple as it sounds, it is calculated by merely dividing the daily close of the HUI unhedged gold-stock index by the daily close in the price of gold. When this resulting ratio is graphed over time, it vividly illustrates the ever-shifting relative strength of the gold stocks versus gold. As their bulls mature, one is stronger and then the other, back and forth. They are engaging in a great secular tug-o-war.
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Wednesday, May 02, 2007
The Long-term Recovery Process Well Underway in South African Gold Mining Stocks / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Clif_Droke
You wouldn't know it by looking at the latest headlines and earnings announcements, but our old friend of DDRDGOLD (formerly Durban Roodepoort Deep) has been looking good from a relative strength standpoint. Not only that, but DROOY made it past its latest 13-week quarterly cycle bottom without taking so much as a minor hit. Will miracles never cease!Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Invest in Gold and Silver like a Pirate / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Brodrick writes: My wife and kids are so excited about the new Pirates of the Caribbean movie coming out at the end of this month. My kids like pirates, while I think my wife just likes Johnny Depp!
Of course, I'm most interested in the economics of the real pirates of the Caribbean. I'm talking about more than "pirate gold" — namely, the four S's — silver, smuggling, sugar and slaves.
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007
Gold Market Outlook – how far is down? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Peter_Degraaf
While it is next to impossible to pick the exact tops and bottoms, there are some signs we can look for to help us position ourselves to buy into weakness, and do some selling into strength.Read full article... Read full article...