Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Bring on the Empty Silver ETFs? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
This week has been a busy week for silver as announcements of two silver ETFs were made to the media. When I read the words "silver" and "ETF" I was part hoping it was finally the silver stocks ETF I mentioned in the latest issue of my newsletter. However, it was not to be as the third silver ETF was announced by the Zurich Cantonal Bank along with their platinum and palladium ETFs. It will start trading on the 10th May.
I asked for the prospectus and got some documents in German. I ran it through Google translator and got some extra items of information.
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Friday, April 20, 2007
Gold: More than Just a TIP, Gold is Money and Store of Wealth / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_Pento
It is still common for market commentators to denigrate gold as a relic of little value. They claim that since it offers no dividend its only appropriate use is for jewelry--never calling to mind the hubris it takes to ignore 5,000 years of civilization that viewed gold as money.
Most market strategists still don't realize that gold is money and its value is as a store of wealth and it holds its value against fiat currencies better than any Treasury asset, including TIPS. So, I thought it may be enlightening to compare the returns of gold versus Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and determine which offers a better hedge against inflation.
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Friday, April 20, 2007
Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold - A Word of Caution for Gold Bulls / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Gold in recent days has flirted with resistance above $690, currently having retraced from the initial attempts at a breakout higher.
From time to time, so as not to get suckered into a wrong analysis or wave count of a market based on relying too much on ongoing 'updated' analysis. I like to take a fresh chart of a market, in this case of Gold, and see what actually stands out clearly at this point in time, a Fresh view so to speak.
What is the 'Fresh' current chart of Gold telling us, especially in terms elliott wave analysis ?
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Thursday, April 19, 2007
Risk to the Petro Dollar from Iraq War and Iranian Crude Oil Echange / Commodities / US Dollar
By: Jim_Willie_CB
The focus on gold and the USDollar alone lacks a crucial factor in maintaining the world currency reserve on its fragile pedestal. The PetroDollar is a term used to describe the close relationship between the USDollar and the crude oil export business dominated by Saudi Arabia , manifested in the superstructure of the global banking system. So one could say the oil world provides the pool from which the US $ exchange rate valuation is applied and enforced.
The gold community pays far too little attention to crude oil factors in my opinion, but Adam Hamilton does indeed. Gold investors love to point to Iran war tensions as a factor to lift the gold price, but they might overlook how the associated earthquakes in banking shift the very ground under the world currency reserve.
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Thursday, April 19, 2007
Silver Update - Under-performs Gold as yet to reach Resistance of $15 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been under performing it so far this year.
On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high.
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Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Gold Rallies back to Resistance at $700, Though COT Signals Potential Warnings / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The gradual uptrend of the past 6 weeks has brought gold once again to a critical juncture. This rise has brought it up to the late February high and within $40 of last year's highs at about $730, raising hopes that it may soon break out to a new high.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
The Energy Sector Breaks Out! / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Donald_W_Dony
The recent upward move in the energy indexes signals higher prices can be expected in 2007 and oil will remain firm at current levels. It also shows inflation is still growing and global economies are continuing to expand.
After 10 months of consolidation below the key 1235 resistance level, the Amex Oil Index (Chart 1) has broken out above this important price ceiling. This indicates the main upward trend in the oil sector is now continuing. And as the Amex Oil Index often leads the commodity, it also implies oil prices will remain firm at current levels as the summer driving season draws near.
Technical evidence shows growing upward pressure should continue until the first half of June.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
A Uranium Feeding Frenzy! Uranium Futures Market on its Way! / Commodities / Uranium
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Broderick writes: You think the fact that uranium prices have more than doubled in the past 12 months is something? Just wait! I hope you have your safety belt on, because this could be the ride of your life. Here's why …
There's a feeding frenzy going on in Australian uranium stocks right now. For example, two of the best uranium companies in the world, Areva and Paladin Resources, fiercely bid against each other for another company (and its resources).
Larger miners are generally very conservative. So the fact that these two companies are throwing so much money around, tells me that uranium — which recently hit $113 per pound — has a long, LO-O-O-NG way to go.
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Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Gold Thoughts - Gold Outperforms US Stocks by more than 300% / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Much talk about this index or that index making a new high, or near a new high. The level for an index is interesting, but the return being earned is more important. A stock market index could conceivably make a new high each and every day without providing a desirable return. Today's graph compares the return over the past five years of an investment in $Gold and U.S. stocks, as measured by the total return on the S&P 500.
As is readily apparent from that graph, $Gold has substantially outperformed an investment in U.S. equities. Why these results? Gold's price is a mirror reflection of the global purchasing power of the U.S. dollar. As the Federal Reserve has grossly mismanaged U.S. monetary policy over the years, the global forex market has pushed down the value of the dollar. That depreciation of the dollar's value is not reflected in the equity market.
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Monday, April 16, 2007
Gold Mega Trend - KEEP FOCUSED / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Aden_Forecast
Gold is on the rise. Investors are excited, especially after last month's volatility, which proved to be nerve wracking for many gold investors. This alone reinforces why it's important to focus on the major trend.
Chart 1 shows gold's mega uptrend and as you can see, the volatility over the past year doesn't look like much. On the contrary, this chart illustrates gold's strength as it sits near the high side of the rise that started in 2001. This is the most important picture to keep in mind when investing in gold. The bull market since 2001 is clearly underway.
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Monday, April 16, 2007
Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast - Gold Boom and US Dollar Bust / Commodities / Elliott Wave Theory
By: Joseph_Russo
Introduction
After a short tirade inspired by the financial alchemy surrounding the world's reserve currency, we will quickly shift our focus to more stable realities.
Through a briefing of price charts, we will speculate on just how far the dollar can fall, and to what heights Gold may climb. In addition, Elliott Wave Technology will share with readers precisely how we have kept our trading clientele on the right side of a rather challenging Gold market from the print high of 730.40 in May 2006, through the violent, and choppy, year-long consolidation experienced since.
Gold Boom / Dollar Bust
As the U.S dollar threatens a two-year double-bottom re-test of its 2004 low, it serves as a timely reminder that the dollar remains firmly entrenched in a century long secular bear market. Some 15-years ago in 1992, the dollar hit it lowest levels striking prints south of 78.50. Last week, it slipped back below 82.00 breaching lows most recently recorded last year in December of 2006.
Monday, April 16, 2007
Trading Thoughts - Gold and Sillver Bullish, Equities at risk on Yen Carry Trade unwinding / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
Last weekend we noted that the U.S. dollar had closed out that previous week at a new low, based on the Median U.S. Dollar Index. That weakness suggested that more weakness for the dollar would develop. Such was what happened this week as the dollar was sold against almost all other national monies. The latest valuations have the U.S. dollar closing at another new low on Friday. That condition makes the U.S. dollar over sold in the short-term, but continuing in a major bear market.
The strategic view that precious metals will do well is being confirmed.
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Sunday, April 15, 2007
Silver Analysis - Trending higher towards Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Roland_Watson
Here are the latest numbers on silver as of this weekend with changes on the week in parentheses (acronyms are explained at bottom):London Silver Fix Price: $13.88 (+$0.30 on week)
NYMEX Spot Price: $14.01 (+$0.33)
RSI: 64.88 (+5.76) ( 70 overbought/30 oversold - short term top-bottom indicator )
RMAR: 1.02 (+0.01) ( 1.30 overbought - monthly to yearly top indicator )
NYMEX SLI: 1.51 (-0.01) (1.80 overbought - multi-year top indicator )
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Sunday, April 15, 2007
Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Technically Precious with Merv / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
A couple of ups and downs during the week but mostly ups. Are we heading for new highs ahead?
GOLD : LONG TERM
Sunday, April 15, 2007
Gold, Metals and US Dollar Analysis : Got Discipline? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Dominick
Joe Nicholson writes “Whether the Federal Reserve tightens incrementally to look tough on inflation for which it is almost entirely responsible, or whether it makes a small cut to support a busted housing market for which it is entirely responsible, precious metals are poised to be the long term beneficiaries of either policy choice.”
~ Precious Points: All I Really Need to Know About the Economy I Learned in Kindergarten , April 01, 2007
The last few updates essentially took the position that the short term fundamental outlook was muddled, but that, nonetheless, precious metals stood to benefit in any likely event. Despite the ebb and flow of rate cute expectations, gold and silver (and platinum, too!) indeed extended their rallies over the past two weeks on steady declines in the dollar and persistent inflation data. An 11.9% increase in M2 over the last six weeks probably hasn't hurt either.
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Sunday, April 15, 2007
Utilities Companies Quietly Worry about Uranium Supply / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
According to Friday's Nuclear Market Review (NMR), many market participants were left stunned by the recent record jump in the weekly spot uranium price. The market has increasingly diverged between those who have U3O8 and those without. Utilities with existing supply contracts “are heaving a sigh of relief,” NMR editor Treva Klingbiel wrote. And those trying to find uranium in today's climate “are forced to face the reality of a seller's market,” she said.Is there pity for one market participant, who is now scrambling for ‘very near term delivery' of nearly 500 thousand pounds U3O8? Probably not. This buyer must compete with 7 others hoping to secure about 3.2 million pounds of U3O8 equivalent.
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Friday, April 13, 2007
The Evolution of Gold or Why Gold is Moving Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
This piece is written on the base provided by GFMS, as always, a most competent gold survey of what happened in the gold market last year . Their conclusions highlight the evolution of the gold market over the last 7 years, since the Washington Agreement was signed in 1999.
At that time in an environment of a gold market clouded by the constant threat of Central Bank sales, the treatment of the metal as a commodity and the accelerated gold production fuelled by the hedging of future production at prices persistently higher than those achieved when a new mine came into production.
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Friday, April 13, 2007
Edward Pastorini and the Gold Fields sting of April 2007 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
Investors are moving in on BIZO as acquisition completes...
"Shares climbed 110% yesterday and 14% today. Watch for more news tomorrow and get ahead of this new campaign..."
Or rather, that's what the latest batch of junk-and-pump emails to hit our servers here at BullionVault would have you believe.
Ramping stocks is illegal, of course. Buying into the hype is stupid. Getting one of the world's major news organizations to do both for you at once...well, perhaps that's genius.
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Friday, April 13, 2007
South Wyoming's Best Uranium Discovery? / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
Until the previous uranium cycle ended in the 1980s, Juniper Ridge had reportedly been the site of 12 small open-pit uranium mines. Many in the industry had called it the ‘best uranium discovery in southern Wyoming.'
In yesterday's conversation with Dr. Robert Rich, we determined he had the credentials and industry knowledge to provide Yellowcake Mining (YCKM) with credibility in the uranium space. But, what about the geology? Many juniors have skated onto the radar by using a ‘big name' to attract investors. Too often, the property's geology is lacking the factors which would lead to actual uranium mining. Often, the industry-celebrity name is barely familiar with the company's property.
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Thursday, April 12, 2007
Uranium Expert: Consolidation, But No ‘Price Crash’ Ahead / Commodities / Uranium
By: James_Finch
Soaring yellowcake prices have accelerated a greater number of uranium juniors rolling off the assembly line. As fast as stock promoters can revive old shells, joint venture a more serious uranium company's castaway property into the re-named shell, and then wheel a former ‘big name' out of retirement (or a nursing home), the company will announce they are in the ‘hunt' for uranium.
Nearly all are mining the stock market – that means you, specifically the investor. Very few, probably less than 10 percent, have any realistic chance of ever putting a shovel to the ground and coming up with uranium ore. Fewer still are likely to intersect sufficiently economic delineation holes which might someday become a uranium mine.
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