Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Monday, August 12, 2019

Precious Metals Soar on Falling Yields, Currency Turmoil / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

What a wild week it’s been for investors. 

The threat of global trade wars and currency wars sparked big swings across all major asset classes.  Bond yields dove toward historic lows.  Stocks plunged earlier in the week before rebounding sharply by Thursday.  And precious metals rode a huge safe-haven wave higher.

Gold prices eclipsed the $1,500 level on Wednesday for the first time in over six years. Meanwhile, silver pushed above $17 an ounce to record a one-year high. Both metals are up over 4% for the week.

The money metals are becoming increasingly attractive as President Donald Trump ramps up his battles against China abroad and the Federal Reserve at home.

Thursday, August 08, 2019

We Are So Stupid When It Comes To Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

In 3rd grade, my teacher had a sign up at the front of the class which read: PUT BRAIN IN GEAR BEFORE ENGAGING MOUTH

This made an impression upon me as a 3rd grader. Yet, many adults have yet to learn this lesson.

It seems that every single analyst that you read regarding the gold market parrots the exact same thesis: If the dollar rises gold falls, and if the dollar falls gold rises. This is the first point in which these analysts have not put their brains in gear before engaging their mouth.

Thursday, August 08, 2019

Natural Gas and Crude Oil – Diverging Setups For Technical Traders / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Over the past few weeks and months, we’ve been alerting our followers to the incredible setups in Natural Gas and Crude Oil.  If you’ve been following our research, you already know on May 21st we called for Oil to break down from $62 level with a target of $55 then $49 price levels. 

We’ve been alerting that Natural Gas was setting up an incredible seasonal trade with a move that was likely to push lower into the $2.00 to $2.20 level – suggesting any move into this range would be a solid buying opportunity for the seasonal upside move.  Well, here we are about 35 days later and look at what happened.

Thursday, August 08, 2019

Currency Wars Are Wars That Gold Wins in the End / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

July nonfarm payrolls came in line with expectations, confirming the strength of the U.S. labor market. So far so good. With the markets more focused now on the escalation of the trade war triggered by Trump’s tweet on Thursday., she stock market plunged while gold rallied. Can the upcoming news take gold higher still?

July Payrolls in Line with Expectations

The U.S. created 164,000 jobs in July, following a strong increase of 193,000 in June (after a downward revision). The nonfarm payrolls were in line with expectations and widespread, but with a leading role of education and health services (+66,000) and professional and business services (+38,000). Retail trade, mining, utilities, and information cut jobs.

Thursday, August 08, 2019

Silver Setting Up 70s Style Rally In The Midst Of Financial Collapse? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Hubert_Moolman

We are currently at an important point of the economic cycle. The end or peak of debt-based assets, and the significant appreciation of real assets like gold and silver.

An example of the last time we were in a similar position is the late 70s. The Dow was at or near peak levels after a multi-decade bull market, while gold and silver was in the midst (or end) of a consolidation (or correction).

The Dow could only start a new bull market after gold and silver had huge blow-off tops.

Wednesday, August 07, 2019

Gold and Silver Boosted by first Fedrate cut since Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: John_Lee

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on Wednesday (July 31, 2019) for the first time in more than a decade.It was trying to keep America’s record-long economic expansion going by insulating the economy from mounting global threats.

Tuesday, August 06, 2019

There’s More Upside in Gold & Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

After a major trend change, it can be difficult for the majority of investors and market watchers to shift and adjust accordingly to the new trend.

It’s no different in the current case of precious metals which, other than a huge rally in the first half of 2016 have been dead money for the majority of the current decade. Despite the newfound bullish fundamentals and bullish technical action, plenty of worry remains that the breakout in Gold could fail.

Conventional wisdom argues the sector has run too far too fast and needs to correct. Technical and sentiment indicators are showing extremes (but only when judged against recent, bear market years).

Tuesday, August 06, 2019

Automakers Flash Warning over Supplies of Critical Metals / Commodities / Metals & Mining

By: MoneyMetals

While motorists continue to enjoy the benefits of a longstanding supply glut in crude oil, car manufacturers are becoming increasingly worried about shortages. Not in liquid fuels, but in metals.

The automotive industry requires certain strategic, rare, and precious metals. Without them, batteries for electric cars wouldn’t function and catalytic converters for gasoline engines wouldn’t work.

Many of the metals that play a critical role in both conventional and electric vehicles now face potential supply shortfalls.

Electric vehicle maker Tesla warned recently of “looming challenges for the metal components used to make EV batteries.” Specifically, supplies of lithium, cobalt, copper, and nickel are failing to keep pace with exponential demand growth for batteries used in cars, solar power systems, and handheld devices.

Sunday, August 04, 2019

Palladium Collapses After Double-Top From Early July 2019 / Commodities / Palladium

By: Chris_Vermeulen

It was almost like Palladium traders followed our research to the letter when the trend reversed on July 11, 2019.  Our research team issued a report indicating a Double-Top pattern was setting up in Palladium on July 3, 2019.  At that time, our proprietary cycle indicators and our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling systems suggested a large downside price swing was highly likely.

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Trade Tariffs, Rate Cuts, and Devaluation Whispers Set Up Gold & Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up Frank Holmes of US Global Investors joins me to talk about gold, the key driver that will likely take it higher and why we need to be paying more attention to the trendlines than the headlines. Don’t miss another great conversation with the well-traveled and highly respected Frank Holmes, coming up after this week’s market update.

Well, after months of presidential complaining, tweeting, and pressuring, Donald Trump finally got a rate cut from the Fed.

A lower interest rate was supposed to stimulate the stock market and make the dollar cheaper versus the currencies of exporting countries -- thereby making U.S. products more competitive according to Trumponomics. Instead, stocks fell and the U.S. Dollar Index broke out to a two-year high following the Federal Reserve’s policy move on Wednesday.

Saturday, August 03, 2019

Gold Stocks Seasonal Autumn Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

The gold miners’ stocks have surged dramatically this summer, catapulted higher by gold’s major bull-market breakout.  That atypical strength bucking the normal summer-doldrums slump has carried this sector right back to its traditional strong season.  That begins with a robust autumn rally starting in late summers.  This year’s autumn-rally setup is very unusual, but investment buying could still fuel further gains.

Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year.  While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals.  We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions.  The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.

Friday, August 02, 2019

No Sign Yet of Cyclical Inflation and the Gold Miners Don’t Mind a Bit / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

Contrary to majority opinion, gold and especially the gold mining stocks that leverage its macro status are not about inflation, especially cyclical inflation that runs with a positive economy.

Making an appropriate return after a few months on hiatus, ladies and gentlemen… the Macrocosm.

Friday, August 02, 2019

Precious Metals React To Fed Shockwaves – Ready For Next Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

On July 31, 2019, the US Federal Reserve decreased the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) by 25 basis points.  We believe the US Fed was pushed to take this action for three reasons that are directly related to the fear and greed that is abundant in the global markets.

Reason #1 Fed Had To Cut Rates

First, the US Fed is very concerned that the US housing market has stagnated and weakened over the past 16+ months.  The Fed has pushed the FFR towards our modeling system’s upper boundary (2.0 to 2.25) many months ago and this has pushed the housing market over a supply/demand precipice that may already be too far gone for a substantial recovery.  The US Fed, attempting to prevent another housing market collapse, must attempt to ease lending in an attempt to spark new real estate activity.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update (1/2) / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Silver, the precious metals coiled swing has just given us a taste of what to expect as the price shot higher during July, last trading at $16,56, up 12% since my analysis of 10th June ($14.74). Silver had been lagging the gold price all year, even entering into a downtrend early July that resolved in a $2, 15% surge higher as the following Silver / Gold graph illustrates.

Thursday, August 01, 2019

Precious Metal Stocks Are Not An Investment They Are A Speculation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Bob_Kirtley

Preamble

Let's start by defining investment and speculation, and for this purpose, I have used Investopedia:

An investment is an asset or item acquired with the goal of generating income or appreciation.

Speculation refers to the act of conducting a financial transaction that has substantial risk of losing value but also holds the expectation of a significant gain or other major value.

Wednesday, July 31, 2019

Gold Awaits as Boris Johnson and the Fed Take the Spotlight / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last week, Boris Johnson became the PM of the UK. The odds of hard Brexit increased, sending pound lower. Now, markets await tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Gold closely monitors these events and thinks about which way to go next.

Boris the Brexiteer

Last week, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson – for the people of the Great Britain known as Boris Johnson with a funny mop of blonde hair – became the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, after Theresa May resigned. And who knows – he might very well be the last prime minister of the Great Britain, as the union comes under increasing internal pressure due to Nicola Sturgeon’s push for a second referendum on Scottish independence. Remember, not all constituent parts of the United Kingdom voted for Brexit – the lion’s share of that vote came from England.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Watch These Key Levels in Precious Metals / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The precious metals sector appears to have started a correction. 

It was roaring higher until natural resistance kicked in and the US Dollar grinded its way higher, towards its 2019 high. Factor in the Fed decision this week and it has created a natural “buy the rumor, sell the news” event. 

We cannot know for certain what the Federal Reserve will do or even more importantly, how the market will react. But we can take note of key levels in these markets.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Crude Oil Should Breakdown to $51 This Week / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive modeling system is predicting that Crude Oil will break recent support levels near $55 and move very quickly down to levels near $50 to $51 before August 2nd, 2019.  The move to near the $50 price level is likely to be a 100% measured Fibonacci price extension related to the initial downside move from $61 to $55 earlier in July 2019.

After this new downside move completes, we expect Crude Oil will form a short-term price base just above $50 that may last many days or weeks.  Our earlier analysis of Oil called this move and we outline our future oil expectations.  For more information about this call, please review the following research posts.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Central Bank Gold Agreement No Longer Necessary in Europe / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Submissions

Last Friday, July 26, 2019 - the spot gold price got what should be the opposite of a “Friday News Dump” using a longer gold price history perspective.

Effectively the significant bank power of Europe (ECB) and 21 other national central banks publically agreed that no gold bullion sale coordination is needed this September 2019 and after.

These +20 central 'gold holding' banks likely agree, that to sell sovereign gold bullion currently, is the exact opposite of what any prudent central bank should be doing.

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

Gold Sound Money Movement Gains Momentum in the States / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we continue our discussion on the importance of sound money -- and we are going to check in on the progress at both the state and federal levels. Jp Cortez of the Sound Money Defense League joins me to update us about sound money bills across the nation and also shares his group’s sound money scorecard -- revealing which states have policies that favor sound money and which states are simply abysmal. So, stick around for my very interesting conversation with Jp Cortez, coming up after this week’s market update.

As investors look ahead to a likely rate cut next week by the Federal Reserve, gold and silver markets are consolidating their recent gains. The gold market is giving back 0.4% this week, bringing spot prices to $1,422 an ounce. Silver, on the other hand, is showing significant outperformance for the second straight week – up 1.2% since last Friday’s close to trade at $16.49, and the fact that it hasn’t broken down to this point after last week’s rally should be viewed quite positively.

Turning to platinum, the catalytic metal registers a weekly gain of 2.1% to come in at $867. And finally, palladium is headed higher by 1.3% this week to trade at $1,533 per ounce as of this Friday morning recording.