Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Silver Wildcats - And The Day Futures Died - Part 1 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

From Legends to Bankers

Yes, there has always been price manipulation.

There will always be price manipulation.

From the time of Caesar, through the American Civil War and into the 20th and 21st centuries.

Friday, June 17, 2016

How to Use the Gold-to-Silver Ratio? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

We have debunked the myth that gold-to-silver ratio should revert to its “true” level around 16. The predominant range for the ratio in modern times is rather well between 40 and 80. Moreover, the notion that the gold-to-silver ratio should revert to some historical average makes no sense. The relative valuation between these two precious metals depends on market forces, like the health of the world economy and monetary demand for both metals, or industrial demand for silver. Such factors change over time. For example, gold has nowadays much higher monetary demand compared to silver than in the past, which largely explains why the average ratio in the 21st century was on average higher than earlier.

Friday, June 17, 2016

Inflation, Deflation & Associated Trading Prospects / Commodities / Commodities Trading

By: Gary_Tanashian

Recently I have gotten wordy about the decline in ‘inflation expectations’ beginning on June 2, right on through yesterday’s update of the TIP-TLT ratio and TLT in essence, attaining their targets.  The implication would be that the mini deflation whiff is coming to its limits.

As often happens at potential limit points, the market’s crosscurrents are strong.  As noted yesterday, USD, gold, silver and the gold miners all did in-day reversals as items that had been risk ‘off’ got hammered.  ‘What, USD and gold in lockstep?  What is the meaning of this?!?’ think inflationists. See yesterday’s in-day post Strange Bedfellows.

The meaning is that these items, along with the VIX and US Treasury bonds have been plays for a risk ‘off’ market as it got the jitters over deflation.  Gold miners had been, however fleetingly, rising in line with their counter-cyclical fundamentals and this is the mirror image to the reasons why I so often parrot that if you are a gold miner bull, realize that fundamentally at least, the sector is done no favors in an inflationary backdrop (price, for long stretches of time, can be something else all together).

Friday, June 17, 2016

Gold Price Surges to Highest in Nearly Two Years On Central Bank and Brexit Haven Demand / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

The gold price surged to their highest level in nearly two years yesterday on BREXIT concerns and deepening concerns that central banks are slowly losing control of the financial and monetary system.

Gold subsequently fell quite sharply below the key $1,300 level but remains roughly 1% higher for the week in all currencies and is on track for its third week of gains.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

How Will a Brexit Vote Impact Gold and Silver Prices? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jason_Hamlin

The June 23 referendum on whether or not the UK should leave the EU is fast approaching. New polls show that those favoring a leave vote or “Brexit” are leading by 10 to 20 points.This has sent ripples through the markets, as a Brexit is likely to cause economic chaos in the EU, cripple European banks and lead to a Recession.

It is not that voters in the United Kingdom want nothing to do with the EU. Instead, they prefer a mutually-beneficial economic relationship, rather than an economic and political arrangement with the Europenan Union:

Thursday, June 16, 2016

FED Leaves US Interest Rates Unchanged, Gold and Silver Bounce / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Jason_Hamlin

Gold and silver both erased morning declines and pushed higher today after FED chair Janet Yellen announced they would leave interest rates unchanged. Policy makers gave a mixed picture of the U.S. economy, citing growth in some sectors but slowing job gains. While the median forecast of 17 policy makers remained at two quarter-point hikes this year, the number of officials who see just one move rose to six from one in the previous forecasting round in March. The market now sees less than a 50 percent chance of even one rise by year-end. I also expect a maximum of one rate hike this year from the Fed Chair Who Keeps Yellen’ Wolf.

Thursday, June 16, 2016

Crude Oil Price - Oil Bears vs. Support Zone / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Nadia_Simmons

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil lost 1.36% as rising uncertainty around Brexit weighed on investors' sentiment (leaving the European Union by Britain could trigger a recession and slow demand for crude in Europe). In these circumstances, light crude declined under the short-term support line and approached the Jun lows. Will we see lower prices in the coming days?

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

The Rush to Gold: A New Respect Is Growing / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: MoneyMetals

You didn't come here today for bad news. There's plenty of that everywhere you look, and even where you don't look.

So here's the good news. A new rush to gold has begun. To see where we're headed, let's first see where we've been.

Gold and silver owners in the first ten years of this new century were in for quite a ride, watching gold soar to $1,895 and silver to $49 by 2011. Even those who jumped in midway saw their paper money values zoom.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Gold Bull Or Bear Market: Why June 2016 Is The Most Important Month Of The Decade / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: InvestingHaven

Gold is said to be in a bull market again, but we disagree with that. According to our methodology, gold will only enter a bull market if it will trade for at least 5 consecutive days above $1291. So far, that has not happened, but could happen in June of 2016.

The reason why $1291 is such a hugely important price point for gold can be derived from gold’s long term chart seen below. Basically, $1291 is both a key Fibonacci retracement level for gold’s secular uptrend (from 2001 till 2011) and the resistance line of the bear market. The combination of both has an extremely high importance.

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

Gold Price Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Bob_Loukas

A solid bid returned to the Gold sector this past week as the market saw a solid Gold Rally.  And the GLD ETF alone added more than 15 tons of Gold.  The precious metals Miners, which had fallen 10% from their recent Cycle highs, rallied to recover all of their losses, and to print new 2016 highs.

Considering that the Dollar also moved sharply higher last week (and continued to start the week) out of its own Cycle Low, the action in the Gold market is surprisingly bullish.  If Gold were destined to decline for one more Daily Cycle into an Investor Cycle Low (ICL), I would have expected a rising Dollar to be the catalyst to send it lower.

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Is Gold-to-Silver Ratio Too High? / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Axel_Merk

The gold-to-silver-ratio is an indicator that shows how many silver ounces are required to purchase an ounce of gold. The gold-to-silver ratio is one of the most important parameters in the precious metals market, as it measures the relative value of gold and silver. Therefore, it is a useful tool indicating whether gold or silver is undervalued or overvalued relative to each other. Investors can use the ratio as a timing indicator deciding when to buy gold or silver, or which metal to buy at any given time. When the ratio is low, it means that silver is overvalued relative to gold (and vice versa).

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

Gold Stocks Ultimate Objective in a World of Monetary Transition / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Brad_Gudgeon

Gold Tenters: Here is my study of where gold stock prices are headed over the next 10 years. I regard it as rather epic. You have seen gold bugs bloviate about pie in the sky numbers, however I am trying to do legit analysis to come up with a process which justifies an actual price objective. I encourage your feedback before I publish , consider it your weekend reading- Plunger

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

George Soros Making Big Bets on Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: The_Gold_Report

George Soros has joined fellow billionaire investors Stan Druckenmiller and Ray Dalios on investing big in gold. Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger explains what is behind these moves.

Monday, June 13, 2016

Does the Fort Knox Gold Really Exist? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: DeviantInvestor

The Fort Knox Bullion Depository OFFICIALLY contains 147.3 million ounces of gold.

REALITY:

The gold is listed on paper and in official pronouncements.

However, it has also been officially pronounced that:

Monday, June 13, 2016

Gold In Sterling Up 1.7% On BREXIT Jitters - Surges 10% In June / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

Gold in sterling has risen another 1.7% today due to deepening BREXIT jitters with just 10 days left until the referendum on June 23. The flight to gold and sell off in sterling came as Asian and European stock markets fell and European equities headed for their lowest close since February.

Gold in sterling has risen from £892.50/oz to £908/o today and is up 10% in the first 9 trading days of June, from £827 to £908/oz, as investors diversify into safe haven gold due to concerns Britain will vote to leave the European Union.

Saturday, June 11, 2016

Why Samsung Is Not Buying Silver - REDUX / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Actually… that old headline above is not quite accurate.

However, the implications have not changed - and could be playing out as I write this.

(Silver, despite bearish COMEX positioning, has broken out of a key moving average and seems to be accelerating…)

Samsung, the giant electronics conglomerate, formed an agreement with Avino Silver and Gold Mines Ltd. in July 2015.

Friday, June 10, 2016

Gold Stocks Retreat at Resistance / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2016

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

Over the past two weeks gold stocks have surged more than 20% as the awful jobs report forced the bears to capitulate. That strong of a move in a brief amount of time will naturally slow or correct. Furthermore, gold stocks touched resistance Friday morning which led to a bearish reversal. While the bullish trend remains intact, the odds favor lower prices in the days ahead.

Friday, June 10, 2016

Massive Gold Stock Investment Buying / Commodities / Stock Markets 2016

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold’s strong gains so far this year have been overwhelmingly fueled by one dominant driver, massive investment buying.  After shunning prudent portfolio diversification with gold for years, investors are finally starting to reestablish those essential positions.  And since their collective gold holdings were so incredibly low heading into 2016, reflecting hyper-bearish sentiment, gold’s investment buying has only begun.

Friday, June 10, 2016

George Soros Buying Gold On BREXIT, EU “Collapse” Risk / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: GoldCore

George Soros is again buying gold and selling and going short stocks due to BREXIT and EU “collapse” risk, after a six year hiatus from the gold market.

Friday, June 10, 2016

Dollar, Gold and Silver Chart Analaysis / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016

By: Gary_Savage

$USD – If the dollar gives us a normal duration intermediate cycle, it will not be due to bottom until September or October.