Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, March 06, 2018
8 Reasons Your Investment Portfolio Needs Crisis Insurance / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: HAA
By Olivier Garret : We’ve recently witnessed what I consider to be a turning point for the stock market.Just when many predicted another growth year for the markets, on Monday, February 5, the Dow plunged by 1,600 points—its greatest point drop in history.
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Tuesday, March 06, 2018
Will the Stars Shine on Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Major blow to the EU! The populist Five Star Movement won about one-third of the votes in the Italian general elections. It’s another negative shock for the European establishment. Will these stars shine on gold?
Five Stars Movement Triumphs
We live in strange times. To be a hairstylist, you need a license. But you can become a politician being just a comedian and telling jokes. We refer here to Beppe Grillo who co-founded the Five Star Movement a decade ago. Although the party was initially perceived as a harmless prank, it quickly became a serious threat for mainstream politicians in Italy. In 2013, it reached 25.55 percent of the vote, introducing 109 out of the 630 deputies in the Parliament. It would obtain even more members, but it refused to form a coalition. Fast forward to 2018 – the Five Star Movement won about one third of the votes. It means that it will likely be the largest single party – and the pillar of the next legislature.
Monday, March 05, 2018
Gold’s Chance to Finally Shine and its Upside Target for Friday / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Taking profits on our short positions and closing them on Thursday turned out to be a good idea. Gold, silver and – on an intraday basis – mining stocks moved higher on Friday, while the USD Index declined. But, is the rally over after just one day? Not likely – gold’s and miners’ turning points are likely to result in something more than just a daily rally. So, how high is gold likely to rally this time? That’s what we discuss in the following part of today’s alert.
But first, let’s take a look at what happened in the USD Index (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
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Monday, March 05, 2018
The Biggest Energy Breakthrough Since Fracking / Commodities / Oil Companies
By: OilPrice_Com
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Monday, March 05, 2018
SILVER Large Specualtors Net Short Position 15 Year Anniversary / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and explains why he is bullish on the metal.
The purpose of this update is to commemorate the Large Specs having their first net short position in silver since the site started 15 years ago, and also to consider how we can turn this to our advantage. Before we look at silver's latest extraordinary COT chart and consider its implications, we will first quickly review the silver charts.
We will start with an 8-year chart that shows the big picture and includes the entire bear market from the April–May 2011 peak. On this chart we see that silver is in the very late stage of a giant downsloping Head-and-Shoulders bottom and currently grinding sideways marking out a protracted Right Shoulder low. Because of its downslope, many observers think that silver's bear market is ongoing and fail to spot that this is a giant base pattern, but the parallel Head-and-Shoulders bottom in gold is much more obvious because it is flat-topped, and it is this that helps give the game away.
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Saturday, March 03, 2018
Crude Oil and Water: How Climate Change is Threatening our Two Most Precious Commodities / Commodities / Climate Change
By: Richard_Mills
While there is disagreement over its causes – man-made versus natural – the reality of climate change is an incontrovertible fact. The planet is warming, affecting our weather, our oceans, our growing seasons, even our food, as crops fail, causing shortages and price hikes. Storms are becoming more frequent, and more intense, and droughts are lasting longer.
Forest fires are an annual occurrence in Australia, California and British Columbia, and in the United States and the Caribbean, people live in fear of the next hurricane that could literally turn their lives upside down.
Most of us have watched videos of calving glaciers as huge chunks of ice break off millions-year-old ice sheets and tumble into the sea. They have become emblematic of the highly-politicized cause of climate change, or dare we say, “global warming.” Starting with Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, the global warming alarmists have been on a decades-long crusade against the fossil fuel industry, but few have stopped to think about what are the implications of climate change from an investment point of view.
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Saturday, March 03, 2018
Currencies Will Be ‘Flushed Down the Toilet’ Triggering a ‘Mad Rush into Gold’ / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: MoneyMetals
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies, and author of the book The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market.
Michael is a well-known money manager and a fantastic market commentator, and over the past few years has been a wonderful guest and one of our favorite interviews here on the Money Metals Podcast and we always enjoy getting his Austrian economist viewpoint.
Michael, welcome back and thanks for joining us again.
Michael Pento: What a great introduction. Thanks for having me back on, Mike.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Fed Interest Hikes, US Dollar, and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Zeal_LLC
The US dollar has fallen rather sharply over the past year or so, despite ongoing Fed rate hikes. This persistent dollar weakness has really boosted gold. There’s a fascinating interplay between these two currencies and futures speculators’ expectations for Fed rate hikes. These traders hang on every word from top Fed officials, which greatly influences their trading. So these relationships are important to understand.
In late December 2016, the venerable US Dollar Index surged to an incredible 14.0-year secular high. That was just a couple weeks after the Federal Reserve’s second interest-rate increase of this hiking cycle. Top Fed officials were forecasting three more rate hikes in 2017, fueling euphoric sentiment in this top reserve currency. Everyone believed higher prevailing interest rates would prove very bullish for the dollar.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
What Does February Stock Market Crash Mean for Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
One month after the February stock market rout is an excellent time to step back and review all the facts – and their implications for the gold market. Here’s exactly what happened – and what it implies for your capital allocation.
- After more than a year of continuously advancing, the S&P 500 fell nearly 10 percent in five days.
- The sell-off was allegedly triggered by the surprisingly strong January jobs report, showing the acceleration in wage growth. That released fears of higher inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten its stance further. As President Trump rightly pointed out (on Twitter, of course):
in the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Trump Risks Trade and Currency Wars – Protectionism and Economic War Loom / Commodities / Protectionism
By: GoldCore
– Global stocks slump as Trump risks trade wars
– Gold prices little changed despite dollar weakness after tariff news
– Trump announced plans to impose heavy tariffs on imported metals
– China likely to retaliate with heavy tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports
– Geo-political tensions with EU and of course China and Russia to escalate
– Trade, currency wars and competitive currency devaluations tend to lead to actual war
– Russia unveils next generation of “invincible nuclear weapons”
– Safe haven gold bullion a hedge against protectionism and economic war
Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil Market Fears: War, Default And Nuclear Weapons / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: OilPrice_Com
The U.S. is one of the few areas of the world in which there is an energy investment boom underway, a development that could smooth out the uncertainties of geopolitical events around the world. At the same time, outside of the U.S., there is a deterioration of stability in many oil-producing regions, aggravating risks for both oil companies and the oil market, according to a new report.
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Friday, March 02, 2018
Crude Oil – It Smells Like… Profits / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadia_Simmons
Although oil bulls pushed black gold higher after yesterday market’s open, their triumph was very short-lived. Looking at the daily chart, it even tempts to say that their rally took place on an empty tank. Why? Because thanks to yesterday’s decline oil bears not only made short positions more profitable, but also gained next pieces to their puzzle. Let's check them together in today's alert.
Today's alert will start a little differently than usual, because we will take you on a small journey to the past and we’ll recall the quote from our Oil Trading Alert posted on Friday:
(…) In our opinion, the pro-bearish scenario is also reinforced by the fundamental factors. (…) EIA data showed that the U.S. output remains above 10 million barrels per day, which keeps domestic production on track to meet the earlier estimate for an increase to 11 million barrels per day in late 2018. If American drillers will not let down, the U.S. will overtake Russia in crude oil production and become the largest global supplier. Such development will likely not please Saudi Arabia and may thwart OPEC efforts to reduce black gold’s stockpiles, increasing worries over another crude oil glut. In such an environment oil bulls could have problems keeping the price not only above $60, but also above the psychological barrier of $50.
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
Why Did You Send Gold Lower, Mr. Powell? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Not nice, Mr. Powell! Gold prices fell more than 1 percent after your comments as the Federal Reserve’s new chairman. What did you say – and what are the implications for the precious metals market?
As We Warned, Powell Is More Hawkish
We have been alerting investors about the hawkish turn at the FOMC for a long time. For example, in the Gold News Monitor on February 13, we wrote that Powell could move faster on normalization than Yellen, as the macroeconomic conditions have become more favorable. As the Fed Chairman pointed out during his first testimony to the House Financial Services Committee,
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Thursday, March 01, 2018
Four Key Themes To Drive Gold Prices In 2018 – World Gold Council / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Four key themes to drive gold prices in 2018 – World Gold Council annual review
– Monetary policies, frothy asset prices, global growth and demand and increasing market access important in 2018
– Weak US dollar in 2017 saw gold price up 13.5%, largest gain since 2010
– “Strong gold price performance was a positive for investors and producers, and was symptomatic of a more profound shift in sentiment: a growing recognition of gold’s
role as a wealth preservation and risk mitigation tool”
– China’s gold coins and bars market recorded its second-best year ever
– German, central bank and technological demand supporting gold prices
– Latest Goldnomics podcast explores these and other themes
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Here’s What Gold is Waiting for / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
Gold was well bid during the equity correction but it could not breakout then and has retreated as equities have roared back. As a result, the Gold to stocks ratio has retraced most of its recent surge. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has rebounded and the oversold and overhated bond market could be starting a rally. The recent rise in long-term bond yields which has benefitted Gold appears due for a pause or correction. Meanwhile, Gold could also correct and consolidate as it waits for a breakout in long-term bond yields which should in turn benefit Gold.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
America’s New Steel and Aluminum Protectionism / Commodities / Steel Sector
By: Dan_Steinbock
Now that the White House seeks to turn China’s steel and aluminum overcapacity into a national security matter, America’s new protectionism risks international trade discord.
Following a trade investigation of imports, U.S. Department of Commerce recently recommended imposing heavy tariffs or quotas on foreign producers of steel and aluminum in the interest of national security. Armed with steel and aluminum reports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross stated that steel is vital to U.S. national security and current import flows are adversely impacting the steel industry.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Gold Stocks Break Down below 2017 and 2018 Lows! / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: P_Radomski_CFA
The HUI Index just closed below both 2017 and 2018 lows. The interpretations of many developments in the market are vague and subjective. But not major breakdowns. Gold miners just showed exceptional weakness by closing at new lows even though gold is still above $1,300 and the S&P corrected more than half of its recent sharp decline. Can anything save the precious metals sector from falling further?
Yes, but based on what happened yesterday, it seems that the golden Superman may have some trouble getting into the scene.
Another downturn in the USD Index would likely trigger a corrective upswing in gold and silver, which would in turn cause the prices of mining stocks to move higher. The “problem” here is that the USD has just invalidated the breakdown below the declining medium-term support line, which significantly lowered the odds for another short-term decline.
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Wednesday, February 28, 2018
The Light at the End of the HUI Gold Stocks / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2018
By: Rambus_Chartology
I’m going to use this long term weekly chart for the HUI as a proxy for the other PM stock indexes. This chart also shows you why I’ve remained very cautious on any PM stock rally.
What we know for sure is that the HUI rallied strongly out of its January 2016 low to the August 2016 high which was very impressive. At the time it looked like the initial impulse move in a brand new bull market which was a welcomed sight after 5 years of bear market price action. At the 2016 top is where we should have expected some type of consolidation pattern to start building out to consolidate that massive gain, but what we got is not what we wanted to see.
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Tuesday, February 27, 2018
Crude Oil Price Trend Forecast for March 2018 / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The crude oil price started 2018 with a BANG, rising from an opening $60 to a January peak of $67, that's a 12% gain in less than 1 month!
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Monday, February 26, 2018
Digital Gold Provide the Benefits Of Physical Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2018
By: GoldCore
– Will digital gold provide the benefits of physical gold?
– Digital gold and crypto gold products claim to combine efficiencies of blockchain with value of gold
– They are yet to provide the same benefits or safety as owning physical gold
– National mints jumping in on the ‘sexy blockchain’ act
– BOE declares bitcoin ‘not a currency;’ Royal Mint launches blockchain gold product
– Digital gold, blockchain gold and crypto gold is frequently not fully backed, unallocated, pooled and unsecured gold holdings