Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Precious Metals Stocks on Major Buy Alert / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Clive_Maund
If you take a stroll around the financial district of any big city such as London, New York or Tokyo, you will walk past countless well dressed and groomed men, in smart suits and ties with tidily coiffured hair and neatly clipped nails, and if you listen to their conversations you will observe that many of them speak softly in measured tones. The image conveyed is one of poise and professionalism. Yet beneath the veneer of civility and reasonableness there frequently lurks a seething cauldron of greed, lust - and fear, a fact which many women are instinctively aware of and which business women are able to turn to their advantage. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Crude Oil Spike Fails to Break Above Resistance / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Very interesting situation developing in nearby crude. Let's notice that the post DOE data spike propelled prices to $115.69 (so far), which hurdled the August resistance line at $114.80, benefiting our earlier ProShares Ultra-Long Oil & Gas ETF (AMEX: DIG) position. But it failed to hurdle the prior rally peak at $115.95 established yesterday.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Strong US Dollar Drives Gold Lower / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back all of a 1.5% rally late-morning in London on Wednesday, dropping below $815 per ounce in thin but frantic trade as the US Dollar continued to rally against pretty much everything.Crude oil ticked back above $113 per barrel – down almost 25% from its top of early July ahead of today's much-anticipated US inventory stockpiles report – while base metals continued to slide.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Gold Oversold at Seasonal Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $809.70, down $11.80 and silver was down 3 cents to $14.44. Gold rose in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $821.10/821.60 per ounce (1000 GMT). Gold's recent merciless sell off continued yesterday. But, the dollar's incredible five day surge appeared to come to an end yesterday, with a sell off on Wall Street (on concerns about financials and slowing global growth) stopping it in its tracks.
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Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Gold Extremely Oversold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
In most recent Trading Thoughts we reported that the largest purchases of U.S. government debt by foreign official institutions had occurred in the prior week. Initially, reason for those purchases was a mystery. That is, until Russia decided to crush Georgia militarily. Russian army does not move into invasion mode without some prior preparations. Someone knew what was to happen. Massive amount of money flowed, at a $1.4+ trillion annual rate, into U.S. debt in less than a week.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Trying to Make a Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Michael_Swanson
After falling 40 dollars Monday morning and dragging the HUI down 20 points there are some short-term technical signs that gold may be near a bottom of some sorts. First gold finally fell down hard one morning to start to catch up with the steep drop we have seen in gold stocks. Gold also fell down to its 65-week moving average, which has been its long-term support level for the past six years. Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Hit by Massive Wave of Stoploss Selling for Record Plunge / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $821.50, down $36.00 and silver was down 71 cents to $14.48. Gold continued to fall in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $809.00/809.60 per ounce (1100 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Gold Bull Market Correction Elliott Wave Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Alistair_Gilbert
Captain Ron has presented his well-reasoned case for Gold for the Bulls today and whilst our long-term viewpoint is the same, I believe that this correction is not over in either TIME or PRICE yet. But correction it is, NOT the end of the Bull market.
In order to determine where we are in the short-term wave count we have to stand back and look at the long-term wave count. Last week I presented the quarterly charts on a number of commodities that to me show quite clearly where we are. Below I show the quarterly DELTA chart on Gold and this time I have put my wave counts on the chart.
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Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Bear Comparison: Today's Junior Resource Mining Sector vs 2001's Nasdaq / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: John_Lee
"Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I've never forgotten that. I suppose I really manage to remember when and how it happened. The fact that I remember that way is my way of capitalizing experience." - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock OperatorRead full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 11, 2008
Overbought US Dollar Should Give Gold Price Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York on Friday at $857.50, down $11.90 and silver was down 92 cents to $15.29. Gold has risen in Asian and early European trading and is trading at $860.10/860.60 per ounce (1230 GMT).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, August 11, 2008
AMEX GOLD BUGS INDEX (HUI): Again a Golden Opportunity to Buy Gold Shares? / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Peter_Zihlmann
Two major gold indices dominate the market - the AMEX's Gold BUGS Index (HUI) and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange's XAU
The major difference between the two is that the BUGS index is made up exclusively of mining stocks that do not hedge their gold positions more than a year-and-a-half into the future. This makes the BUGS Index much more profitable than the XAU when gold prices are rising, but can also compound its losses when gold declines. BUGS is an acronym for B asket of U nhedged G old S tocks. The index was introduced on March 15, 1996 with a starting value of 200.
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Sunday, August 10, 2008
Russian Bear Delivers Crude Oil and Gold a Black Swan Event / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The inter-state conflict that sparked late last Friday when apparently a Georgian barrage of the break-away region of
South Ossetia
resulted in near immediate Russian invasion of heavy equipment which has been accompanied by Georgia wide air attacks . Whilst it is not entirely clear of the real truth behind the sequence of events, I am however puzzled as to how Russia could have mobilised such a large force virtually immediately that one would suspect under normal circumstances take literally as long as a week to assemble. Therefore I am leaning towards the Georgian account of events, as clearly the Georgians were tricked into a sequence of events so as the Russians could implement a plan of invasion and potential annexation of several regions of Georgia. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Gold Succumbs to US Dollar Strength / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
A week of dramatic developments ended with the dollar surging to 6-month highs and silver crashing an important support level and plunging. Gold, however, did not break below its important $850 support level, although as we shall see this certainly does not mean it won't soon. On its 1-year chart we can see that there has been no real panic selloff yet in gold, whose decline thus far from its July peak has been modest and measured compared to that of gold and silver stocks, but if the $850 support level gives way we can expect it to plunge into a selling climax that should terminate the decline. Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Silver Plunges Through Support Heading for $14 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Clive_Maund
The silver support level in the $16.00 - $16.50 area finally buckled on Friday in the face of the dollar spike leading to a rapid plunge that has taken the price below its 300-day moving average. We can see this development on the 1-year chart, and how it has opened up the risk of a continued decline to the next support level in the $14 area.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Gold Plunges Towards Test of Key Support at $850 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Merv_Burak
I think we all want to forget this past week and look ahead (all except those who had been on the short side, that is). We are now at a very significant support so let's see if it looks like gold will hold or fold.
GOLD : LONG TERM - Things got real interesting this past week so I thought I'd bring out my very long term chart of gold and see where we are at. About the only difference between the very long term chart and the long term chart is the use of a yearly (52 week) momentum indicator versus 30 weeks for the long term and the use of a yearly simple moving average line versus a 40 week weighted moving average line in the long term.
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Saturday, August 09, 2008
Gold Trend- The good, the Bad and the Ugly / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Brian_Bloom
Few of us holding gold related investments are happy about the recent performance of the gold price but, in this analyst's view, the appropriate way of looking at this is: “thank goodness the fever is abating”. Paradoxically, I am delighted that the gold price is experiencing a downward technical reaction. I would rather that the patient survived than that it died a spectacular pyrrhic death. A pullback in the gold price at this point in time is a very healthy sign. Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, August 09, 2008
Why Gold Fell Below $900 / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
In the week ending 25th July 2008, the decrease of €578 million in gold and gold receivables reflected the sale by two Eurosystem central banks which roughly equates to the sale of just over 30.0 tonnes of gold. In the week ending the 1st of August, there was a decrease of €26 million in gold and gold receivables reflecting the sale by one Eurosystem central bank and the purchase of gold coins by another Eurosystem central bank, which roughly equates to the sale of around 1.40 tonnes of gold [consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement that came into effect on 27th September 2004]. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, August 08, 2008
Gold Bull Markets Strong Seasonal Tendancies / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Zeal_LLC
It's been a tough few weeks for gold investors. In mid-July this Ancient Metal of Kings closed near $976, within spitting distance of its all-time nominal high of $1005 achieved in mid-March 2008. But since then it has sold off relentlessly, down 10.4% ($101) at worst. Several days of this ugly span were marred by sharp selloffs too, including this past Tuesday's 2.2% plunge on the Fed's machinations.
If you are playing gold on the long side, it is tempting to get discouraged. After all, this week CNBC was emphatically claiming that the global commodities bulls had ended . Never mind that CNBC has prematurely declared these bulls over about a dozen times in the past few years, the misery of the moment is hard to transcend. Gold certainly wouldn't fare well if the commodities-hating financial media is right.
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Friday, August 08, 2008
Gold Driven Lower by US Dollar Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold finished trading in New York yesterday at $869.40, down $5.00 and silver was down 25 cents to $16.21 . Gold remained largely unchanged in Asian trading but has fallen further in early European trading and is trading at $864.60/864.60 per ounce ( 0943 GMT).The continuing rally in the dollar in recent days (has risen as high as EUR 1.5142 this morning) and the recent sharp fall in commodity and oil prices has seen gold come under further pressure and it looks set to test the next level of support at $845-$850.
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Thursday, August 07, 2008
Commodities Super Cycle Heading for Demand Destruction? / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Gary_Dorsch
Jesse Livermore, the world's greatest trader used to say, “Remember, the market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time. Sometimes, the market will go contrary to what speculators have predicted. At these times, speculators must abandon their predictions and follow the action of the market. Never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, but opinions often are. I only try to react to what the market is telling me by its behavior,” he said. After Reuters CRB Index of 19-exchange traded commodities plunged by 10% in July, its biggest monthly decline since March 1980, the five-year bull-run for the “Commodity Super Cycle” appears to have peaked out, and speculators are building net short positions in commodities. “I came to learn that even when one is properly bearish at the very beginning of a bear market, it is not well to begin selling in bulk until there is no danger of the engine back-firing,” Livermore warned.
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