Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, September 07, 2008
Long-term Crude Oil Price Trend Analysis / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Richard_Shaw
Where are oil prices going? We don't know. You don't know. Nobody knows. Short-term events could drive oil higher or lower. The current trend is clearly down, but where it stops is not evident.
What is an investor to do? One reasonable thing to do is nothing, if you don't have particular oil exposure, or if you have good yield from oil companies with well covered dividends.
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Sunday, September 07, 2008
Gold Miners Bullish GDX ETF / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Mike_Paulenoff
Although the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) action may not feel like it is at or very near to a significant low, the pattern from the March high at 56.87 into Friday's low at 31.65 (-45%) exhibits pattern, momentum and volume characteristics indicative of an important tradable low, if not a more meaningful low. If my work proves accurate, then the GDX is just beginning a recovery rally to 35.50 in the upcoming days.
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Saturday, September 06, 2008
US Unemployment Report Saves Gold ...but for how long? / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Chip_Hanlon
Friday morning's huge surge in jobless numbers has knocked the dollar, thus causing gold to pop up nearly $20 as I write this near the open. The conclusion's simple enough: such economic weakness will prevent the Fed from raising rates anytime soon (Fed funds futures now suggest only a 2% chance the Fed will raise rates by year-end, down from 40% odds just one month ago).Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Central Banks Drowning in US Dollar Seek to Expand Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...My God, this is the time. If everyone wants gold we're all going to be ruined, because there is not enough gold to go around..." – J.F.K. to the Fed chairman, Aug. 1962
ONCE UPON A TIME money meant gold (and ever less silver), freely exchanged between private individuals looking to buy and sell, invest and spend.
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Friday, September 05, 2008
Gold Mining Stocks Investing Challenges / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Zeal_LLC
With seven consecutive years of rising gold prices, the gold mining industry has had ample reason to boost output. The demand for gold has grown and will continue to grow and legendary profits can be won for shareholders. But in provocative fashion not only have the gold miners been unsuccessful in growing supply, global mined gold production is down since the beginning of the bull.
In last week's essay I revisited gold's strategic fundamentals with particular focus on economics, drilling down on global gold production and reserves trends. And interestingly global gold production is down 4% since 2001. In a secular bull market this is not a logical supplier response to an economic imbalance.
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Friday, September 05, 2008
Bullish Pattern Developing for Natural Gas ETF / Commodities / Natural Gas
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The U.S. Natural Gas ETF (AMEX: UNG) has come off its recovery high this morning at 34.54. The pattern carved out from yesterday's new corrective low at 32.30 is very constructive and argues for still more strength. The anticipated next upleg should hurdle key near-term resistance at 34.50/55 on the way to 36.50.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Commodities Correcting from Extreme Overbought State is Healthy / Commodities / Resources Investing
By: Ty_Andros
It's an interesting time to be in the financial markets. The return of the “Crack up Boom” series is a result of the amazing amount of MONEY and CREDIT creation that is going to be required to RECAPITALIZE and re-inflate the G7 economies. Money and Credit creation are the fuel and lifeblood of the G7 economies. Misstated inflation is reported as GROWTH; as the OVER-the-COUNTER debacle unfolds and vaporizes the balance sheets of the G7 financial and banking systems rendering many of the biggest players INSOLVENT. Their business models and income flows in tatters as their obligations just keep on piling up. But the WOLF wave continues its march throughout the G7 as incomes collapse under higher costs and collapsing business conditions. Combine that with a US election and you get a recipe for paralysis on the part of irresponsible PUBLIC SERVANTS. Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Poor US Unemployment Report Boosts Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold rose sharply soon after the poor unemployment report as the dollar fell and equities have again come under pressure with sharp falls in international markets.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, September 05, 2008
Gold Fails to Hold Above $800 in the Face of US Dollar Strength / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES struggled below $800 per ounce in Asia and London on Friday, heading towards a 5% loss for the week as the US Dollar rose yet again versus everything else except Treasury bonds.Crude oil dipped towards $106 per barrel, while the Australian Dollar – a key "commodity currency" – hit new 12-month lows.
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Friday, September 05, 2008
Commodities Correction Continues into September / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
KEY POINTS:• U.S. dollar bounce for four to six weeks expected; target of $0.80 to $0.81
• Broad consolidation for commodities lengthens; business cycle suggests crest is developing
• Gold weakness expected until late September; $725 to $740 is the target
• Oil on support at $105; $120-to-$125 target
• Positive seasonality begins for natural gas
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Junior Mining Investing, Gold Stocks Divergence Opportunity / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: Dudley_Baker
Few investors can stand up to the fortitude of an investor in the junior mining sector. Basically, if you did not sell everything in May 2006, then your portfolio is probably under water. The drawn downs in the junior's has been beyond belief. Most of the shares are down 50% or more from the May 2006 highs and many are off 70%, 80% and even 90%.
Are investors insane to stay with these ‘investments' or should we be looking elsewhere?
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Stocks Bull Market and Crash Analysis / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Neil_Charnock
This is Part 2 - Big Bang – big bang for your buck – isn't that what investors want? Yes we all want the ten bagger or better. But where is one going to come from next. As I said in the first article – Big Bang Part 1. “Haven't the easy pickings already been taken this far into the PM Bull? After all the low hanging fruit has been taken hasn't it? You can see that from the charts on the HUI and the XAU can't you? That is not to say these magnificent indices will not go higher but I am talking about the easy pickings and leverage.” Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Bull Market to be Boosted by Paralysed Central Banks / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
SPOT GOLD PRICES gave back half of a 1.6% rally at lunchtime in London on Thursday, trading at $809 per ounce as crude oil prices rose and global stock markets fell once again.Asian-Pacific equities slid for the fourth day running, while German stocks stood 0.8% lower after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept Eurozone interest rates on hold at 4.25%.
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Range Trades Pending Bull Market Resumption / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mark_OByrne
Gold was flat in New York yesterday despite the increasingly bullish macro environment. Gold closed at $803.40 down $1.20 and silver closed at $12.92 down 12 cents.
Gold rose in early trading in London but has subsequently given up some of the gains as the dollar has rallied again (1.4456 to the EUR).
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Systemic Distrust and GATA Gold Conspiracy Hype / Commodities / Market Manipulation
By: Mike_Shedlock
Following is a well written email from "CP" on reasons why someone might be inclined to believe in various conspiracy theories. Let's take a look at what "CP" has to say. From CP:
I always enjoy your writing and am a subscriber to someone I know you respect, and that is Steve Saville. He too does not see any collusion in the markets.
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
The Real Big Storm About to Hit the United States is Cantarell / Commodities / Crude Oil
By: Money_and_Markets
Sean Broderick writes: The oil industry along the Louisiana coast got off lightly from Hurricane Gustav. While 1.3 million barrels of oil and seven billion cubic feet of natural gas per day stopped pumping temporarily, most of the oil infrastructure escaped harm. And oil prices plummeted on that good news.
However, there's a much worse problem threatening oil production around the Gulf of Mexico ...
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Thursday, September 04, 2008
Gold Stocks Developing a Double Bottom Pattern / Commodities / Gold & Silver Stocks
By: David_Petch
Tumultuous market conditions have taken their toll on the commodity sector and caused a change in the Elliott Wave count of the HUI as mentioned in the prior Internet update. The main crux of the problem has been leveraged individuals and funds that were forced to liquidate positions, thereby triggering stops all the way down causing increased liquidation. It is probably a safe bet that a significant portion of the tax-loss selling for 2008 has already occurred, but as analysis presented below suggests, trading opportunities exist over the next 4-6 months before the HUI completes the present consolidation pattern. I stress that 4-6 months is the minimum time frame for the HUI correction to complete, but it could easily extend until May-July 2009 (depending upon how long the consolidation pattern in the USD takes as mentioned in the last Internet update). Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, September 04, 2008
Cooling Global Economy Ensures Commodity Correction to Continue / Commodities / CRB Index
By: Donald_W_Dony
The recent rise of the U.S. dollar has triggered the peak in the commodity market and likely halted any further advances for this index during the 2006-2010 market cycle. As energy and precious metals are normally the last sectors to crest during a market cycle, their current weakness signals the start of a broader correction.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Gold Undergoing New Bearish Consolidation / Commodities / Gold & Silver
By: Mike_Paulenoff
The near-term pattern and technical set-up earlier this morning in spot gold -- which corresponds to the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) for ETF traders -- pointed to an upside thrust to test key near-term resistance at $810.65 concurrent with a test of key near-term euro/$ resistance at 1.4450/80. While the euro did rally a touch above 1.4480, the rally did not sustain, which helped to thwart the rally attempt in spot gold, which failed to claw its way above $810.00. Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
China and India Demand to Fuel Agri-Foods Bull Market / Commodities / Agricultural Commodities
By: Ned_W_Schmidt
If one listens to the popular business media, commodities are dead. When paper oil was trading at $147, the sky was the limit. Now, all is going down. Perhaps they are little more than trend followers? What we really need to know is if the world is awash in grains. Truth is, that view does not in any way describe the global situation. The world has entered an era, ten years or more remaining, when Agri-Food will be in short supply. Whether China grows at 11+% or 9% does not change the conclusion.Read full article... Read full article...