Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Tuesday, June 05, 2007
US T-Bond Yield Hits Resistance, A potential problem for the Fed? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Marty_Chenard
In case nobody is watching, the 30 Year Bond Yield is about to test its 8 year resistance for the second time. This is something to keep a close eye on, because 30 year yields and mortgage rates go hand in hand. See the long term chart below.
The concern is that home building is in a slump and many are speculating that we might be at a bottom ... ready to turn around. If the 30 year yield jumps up, then that would effect how large a home someone could afford, and it would mean that home sellers would get less for their homes in the longer term ... and fewer homes would sell.
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Tuesday, June 05, 2007
UK Interest Rates - The next rise to 5.75% to occur in... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The Banks minutes and inflation report, and recent comments by the bank governer Mervyn King, all point towards to a further rise to 5.75%. The question is will interest rates rise this week ?Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, May 25, 2007
Tremors in the US Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
I've had plenty to talk about in recent weeks — underperforming REITs … the ongoing problems in housing … risky commercial real estate financing … private equity firms gone wild … overseas profit opportunities. These are truly interesting times in many markets.
But there's been one thing I haven't talked about — interest rates. The reason? They haven't been going anywhere. You ever see one of those EKG machine readouts? That's what the chart of 10-year Treasury Note yields has looked like since last August.
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Sunday, May 20, 2007
Eau de Liquidity and the consequences of the spectacular boom in securitized lending / Interest-Rates / Liquidity Bubble
By: Michael_J_Panzner
Recent news reports highlight the difficulties some troubled borrowers are facing when trying to renegotiate payment and other terms with lenders. In many instances, the problems stem from the fact that the loans have been sliced, diced, and repackaged into mortgage-backed securities, which have then been sold to investors in the U.S. and around the world.Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, May 19, 2007
People's Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other? / Interest-Rates / China Economy
By: Paul_L_Kasriel
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced today that it was raising the required reserve ratio on its constituent banks by 0.5 percentage points to 11.5%. This would be the eighth increase in the required reserve ratio since June 2006 when the ratio was 7.5%. You would think that with the PBOC mandating that banks now hold more reserves, the cost of reserve credit would be moving up. Think again. Chart 1 shows that the Chinese overnight interbank interest rate, the equivalent of the U.S. fed funds rate, stood at 1.57% in March (latest data that I have available) - 12 basis points lower than where it was in June 2006, before the required reserve ratio started its ascent.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 17, 2007
Inflation report confirms further rise in UK Interest rates to 5.75% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
With the publication of the quarterly inflation report, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King confirmed that a further rise in interest rates to 5.75% is likely to occur later this summer, in an attempt to bring inflation back under control. He stated "The path of interest rates assumed in this projection anticipates a further rise in the bank rate,"
The inflation report confirmed that a rise in interest rates to 5.75% is required to meet the CPI target of 2% in two years time .
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Friday, May 11, 2007
FOMC - The Prospects for the US Interest Rates and the Dollar / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Julian_DW_Phillips
The Fed's Open Market Committee yesterday repeated its assessment from March 21st that persistent inflation remains the predominant policy concern. Interest rates were held at 5.25%. The Fed has just said, "inflation is a predominant risk" but did not raise interest rates, and indicated that it is not likely to do so, as it pointed to lower growth and the ongoing housing price problems.
The impression given is that it will react to higher inflation but will not pre-empt it. The dangers of inflation with falling growth [stagflation] are now apparent. This is gold positive and $ negative as the Trade deficit will continue at excessive levels in a climate that could discourage the investment of surplus $ [Asian nations in particular] back into the States.
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Thursday, May 10, 2007
ECB Will Hike Interest Rates In June But Second-Half Policy Outlook Is Still Unclear / Interest-Rates / Euro-Zone
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its Refi rate unchanged at 3.75% this morning, but signaled that it expects a rate hike at the June 6 meeting. Trichet stated that "strong vigilance is of the essence in order to ensure that risks to price stability over the medium term do not materialize."Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Credit Collapse - May 10th / Interest-Rates / Credit Crunch
By: Paul_Lamont
On May 10 th 1837 , the banks of New York suspended gold and silver payments for their notes. Fear ignited bank runs throughout the United States . The young country fell into a 7 year depression. How could two decades of prosperity end so suddenly? According to America : A Narrative History : “monetary inflation had fueled an era of speculation in real estate, canals, and railroad stocks.” Cracks in the dam were visible much earlier, as the stock market peaked in inflation-adjusted value three years prior. According to Rolf Nef, debt levels in the private sector rose to 150% of GDP. In late 1836, the Bank of England concerned with inflation raised interest rates. As rates rose in England , credit tightened, and U.S. asset prices began to fall.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Bank of England Raises UK Interest Rates by 0.25% to 5.5% / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
As widely expected UK interest rates have been raised to 5.5% at mid-day today.
In a statement the Bank of England stated :
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to raise the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.
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Wednesday, May 09, 2007
UK Interest Rates Expected to Rise to 5.50% Tomorrow / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The rise in UK interest rates to the interim target of 5.50% is expected to occur at mid-day tomorrow. The rises in interest rates towards the Market Oracle target of 5.75% by Sept 2007 are a consequence of the Bank of England failing to control inflation.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 30, 2007
The Bernanke Bluff on US Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Paul_Petillo
Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman seems to be holding his ground when it comes to short-term interest rates – at least in the short-term. His recent testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee offered no additional insight into how the chairman thinks. His testimony before legislators offered no hint as to what he would do with rates in light of some troubling economic news.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, April 22, 2007
UK Interest Rates to Rise to 5.50% on May 10th , What's Next ? / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The money markets have now priced in a rise in interest rates to 5.50% at the May meeting of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee.
In my previous article I discussed the reasons why interest rates have been on the rise during 2007 towards the target of 5.75% (British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates 18th April 07)
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Wednesday, April 18, 2007
British Pound Finally Awakens to Inflation feeding Rising UK Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Inflation as measured by the CPI jumped above 3% to 3.1%, which now virtually guarantees a hike in UK interest rates to 5.5% at Mays Bank of England MPC Meeting. The British Pound surged through the $2.00 barrier, having flirted with it for nearly 2 years now, each attempt at a break having held, but no more !
Both the rise to 5.50% at the May meeting and the Pounds jump above $2.00 have been long forecast and expected.
The Story of 2007 has been and will continue to be of higher interest rates across the world. Not just for the UK but for most major economies. The resulting effect is already being seen in the currency markets with a selling of the US dollar especially against the Euro and Sterling.
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Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Further Hikes in US Interest Rates Possible - But Gold Just Doesn't Buy It. / Interest-Rates / Gold & Silver
By: Adrian_Ash
"...The price of gold, US consumers and the International Monetary Fund all
agree the US economy is about to slow down dramatically.."
SO FURTHER HIKES in US interest rates could still "prove necessary" according to Ben Bernanke and his team.
Stocks and bonds sold off hard Wednesday on the release of minutes from last month's Fed policy meeting. "They still have their finger on the trigger for raising interest rates," reckons one US fund manager running $23 billion in Los Angeles speaking to Bloomberg in between watching his portfolio wobble.
But gold, on the other hand, just doesn't buy it. Spot gold prices continued to trade in a tight range around $676.50 per ounce. Gold also held steady against the other major currencies, remaining near 6-week highs versus Sterling, the Euro and Japanese Yen.
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Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Bank of Japan keeps Japanese Interest Rates on hold at 0.50% / Interest-Rates / Japanese Interest Rates
By: Sarah_Jones
The Bank of Japan kept interest on hold at 0.50%, following last Februarys hike from 0.25%.
This follows recent data which showed that inflation (CPI) fell in February to 0.1%, which again raised the specter of deflation that Japan has suffered from since the early 1990's property bubble collapse.
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Saturday, April 07, 2007
Currency traders hated this week's vote by the Bank of England. But UK savers will hate it more... / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Adrian_Ash
SO THE BANK of ENGLAND voted to keep Sterling interest rates on hold for another month.Ahead of the decision, the futures market had put the chances of a further baby-step increase to 5.50% at around fifty-fifty. That would have taken Sterling rates above US Dollar rates for the first time since March last year.
History says that an interest-rate premium for Sterling tends to reward currency speculators with a capital gain, as well as a positive pay-off from the carry. And so, anticipating a hike by the Old Lady, the foreign exchange market got itself increasingly long of Sterling over the last five trading sessions.
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Thursday, April 05, 2007
BOE Keeps UK Interest Rates on Hold in April But likely to Rise in May / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates
By: Victoria_Marklew
As expected, the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) left its policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% this morning. However, as we've noted before (see Daily Global Commentary, March 21: UK: Rate Hike Expectations Ease but Don't Rule Out Further Tightening ), the BoE concluded in its February Inflation Report that inflation would be slightly above the 2.0% target in two years' time if the repo rate stayed at 5.25%. Given the members' concerns about underlying inflation pressures and about an increase in firms' pricing power, recent data suggest the odds still favor another rate hike in May.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 05, 2007
A Fixed Interest Income Bond Market Shock Looms / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Michael_Pento
First it was the NASDAQ stocks in 2000, then real estate prices, and now the third leg of this asset price correction is at the threshold. Recent salvos from China and our own commerce secretary may be the catalysts for this correction.
We have been in a multi-decade bull market in bond prices. From September of 1981 to June of 2003 the yield on the two year Treasury note fell from 16.46% to 1.23%. Likewise from October '81 through June '05 the 30 year bond has declined from 14.68% to 4.29%. Since then, the two and thirty year yield has risen to 4.5% and 4.85% respectively. According to Bloomberg, treasuries are now 1.56 percentage points lower than the 6.21% average of the past 20 years. That means even if you discard the high rates of a quarter century earlier into your calculation, treasuries yields are still about 32% below average!
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Wednesday, April 04, 2007
Derivatives Trading Disasters - From LTCM to the 'Ohio Put' in nine years of easy money... / Interest-Rates / Money Supply
By: Adrian_Ash
THIRTEEN YEARS AGO , the giant German industrial conglomerate Metallgesellschaft lost $1.5 billion trading crude oil futures.It admitted afterwards that it knew little-to-nothing about the oil market.
The next year, in 1995, Barings bank – one of Britain's oldest and most respected financial institutions – went bust thanks to a lone trade in Singapore losing some $860 million on Japanese stock futures.
The head office in London claimed it knew nothing about Nick Leeson's repeated strategy of 'double or quits'.
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