Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Rising U.S. Treasuries Foretell Lower Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
While gold prices attempt to break out to the upside, the bond market continues to climb as well. Let's take a look at the pattern developing in the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT).
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Monday, August 31, 2009
The Interest Rate Cosa Nostra / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation
Recently, Bloomberg News reported that a legal brouhaha has developed in Italy surrounding the municipality of Milan entering into a refinancing package, including retiring older existing debt and associated interest rate swaps, with a combination of new bonds and interest rate swap agreements designed to protect Milan against a rise in long-term interest rates, back in 2005. This financing was arranged with a quartet of banks including J.P. Morgan Chase, U.B.S. AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Depfa Bank Plc.
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Monday, August 31, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Lower, Despite Supportive Fundementals / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
The bond market moved up last week as yields dropped across the curve. In spite of stronger than expected economic data, another auction cycle and a rock solid stock market, bonds spent most of the week in positive territory and managed to hold on to their gains better than the previous week.
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Thursday, August 27, 2009
Bernanke: Central Bankers' Bob the Builder? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
First, the good news about Bernanke’s nomination for a second term as head of the Federal Reserve (Fed): we know what we are getting and may be able to prepare for the risks his continued leadership may pose to inflation and the dollar. The bad news: more of the same.
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields, Someone Is Going To Be Wrong / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
For over 8 months now, I have been chronicling the plight of the 10 year Treasury bond. Based upon the "next big thing" indicator it was my expectation that yields on the 10 year Treasury bond would rise once there was a monthly close above a yield of 3.342%. This occurred at the end of May, 2009.
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Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Understanding Money Market Funds / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
Paul Volker doesn't like them much. Institutional investors use them frequently. And individual investors, particularly those of the smaller variety don't really understand what they do and in many instances, use them for the wrong reasons. They are like banks but are not regulated as such. The Securities and Exchange Commission currently oversees their activity as per the Investment Company Act of 1940.
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Monday, August 24, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Kept Positive by Friendly Inflation Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
The bond market ended flat after spending most of the time trying to move up last week. Friendly inflation data and a confirmation of solid international demand kept the market in positive territory for most of the week.
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Monday, August 24, 2009
Global Debt Bubble, Steve Keen on Causes and Solutions / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
Australian economist Steve Keen is one of the very few who have called this economic crisis correctly. What distinguishes Keen is that his economic forecasts are based on levels of debt and changes in levels of debt as opposed to money supply, output capacity and other things that led most economists astray.
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Sunday, August 23, 2009
Big Interest Rate Move Around the Corner? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Interest rates ... housing demand ... housing affordability ... bank loans ...
Headline confusion? ... Here are the current housing related headlines on a Yahoo news search:
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
Even Warren Buffett Is Now Saying U.S. Treasury Bonds Could Crack! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Mike Larson writes: I’ve made no secret about my view on U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar …
I’ve minced no words, and cut no corners …
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Thursday, August 20, 2009
Monetization of U.S. Treasury Bonds In Isolation / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
Every few months a chart comes along that needs almost no follow-on paragraphs to make the point of the issue. The chart provided by CIGA Eric covers several important types of US$-based bonds, their inflow and outflow, and the aggregate GrandNet. The financial data is publicly available from the USGovt TIC Reports. The messages are clear. Inflows of foreign funds are dwindling.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Ruining Public Credit with Imaginary Fiat Money / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
"Expect more 'imaginary money – with or without negative bank rates – often and soon..."
IT'S NOT OFTEN that Sweden gets to lead the world. Saab mimicked BMW. Nokia improved on Motorola. Abba took The Carpenters and added a hi-hat.
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Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Broke FDIC Squeezes Banks for More Insurance Cash / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
Here is an interesting Email from a Bank Owner and CEO regarding As of Friday August 14, 2009, FDIC is Bankrupt
ABO, who as been in the business 30 years, writes:
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Bernanke’s Federal Reserve Interest Rate Indecision Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
Nilus Mattive writes: Last week, the Federal Reserve held a two-day interest rate policy meeting, and nobody was surprised by their lack of action. Heck, it’s unlikely that we’re going to see a real change in their target rate for a while yet.
But I do think there were some important suggestions buried in their comments, and I want to talk about those today. Plus, I want to throw my hat into the ring on the “Will Bernanke get another term?” debate as well.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields, Where to From Here? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
Last week's treasury rally was the biggest in eight months notes Bloomberg in Treasuries Rise Amid Flat Consumer Prices, Declining Confidence.
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Monday, August 17, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Positive Seasonal Influences / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
The bond market bounced back last week. We went through another 3-10-30 year auction cycle, but the restless natives did not even wait for the auctions to be out of the way as the bond started its move up first thing on Monday. Needless to say the supply was well received. Not only was the bidding substantial and aggressive, but also the closely watched “International Buyers” showed up in force again. They took over 50% of all the bonds auctioned and were especially aggressive in buying the 30 year tranche on Thursday.
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Saturday, August 15, 2009
FDIC Depositor Insurance Scheme is Bankrupt! / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
Bank Failure Friday is in full swing. Tonight there were 5 more failures, numbers 73 through 77 on the year. In the biggest failure since WaMu, BB&T Takes Over Colonial.
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Saturday, August 15, 2009
U.S. Debt as a Percentage of GDP Means No Growth for 50 Years / Interest-Rates / US Debt
Apparently, a bazooka wasn’t enough. Last summer, that is what then Secy. of the Treasury Henry Paulson asked for when he made his case for sweeping financial powers. Instead, Congress gave him a nuke, and apparently that wasn’t enough either. Making the jump from completely absurd to the absolutely ridiculous, Timothy Geithner became the latest in a long line of Treasury Chiefs to run to Congress to ask for an increase in the nation’s debt ceiling.
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Friday, August 14, 2009
Moment of Truth for U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
The moment of truth for the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT). If current strength continues to propel prices into and ABOVE a key near-term resistance plateau between 94.15 and 94.85, then prices should explode even more rapidly towards 97 thereafter (and I will be forced to chase the long side).
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Thursday, August 13, 2009
The Federal Reserve is Immoral / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
During the first few days of each month comes a task that is increasingly approached with dread around here and, unfortunately, that condition is likely to persist for some time.
Shortly after banks make their month-end update to various short-term savings accounts that we hold, these balances are queried, only to find that, almost without exception, interest credited is less than it was in prior months and far less than it was eight or ten months ago.