Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Monday, September 14, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Trade Higher on Weak Economy / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded mostly positive all week and followed the recent pattern of one ugly Friday alternating with one neutral Friday. This last one actually managed to eke out a small gain. The financial markets are shaping up to be a diverging tale of three themes. On the one hand we have the stock markets around the world relentlessly grinding to new highs, while on the other hand the bond market refuses to buckle as it continues to retain a strong safe haven bid. In the mean time, gold is also breaking out to the upside with some conviction. The yellow metal managed to achieve its highest weekly closing level ever at $1007 per ounce.
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Saturday, September 12, 2009
What Will Happen When Foreign Investors Dump U.S. Treasury Bonds? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
Every time I talk about the risk of our foreign creditors selling off their U.S. Treasuries, I hear the same objection: These guys have no place else to put the money! They’ll ALWAYS buy our debt because our bond market is the most liquid, freest place to stash their money.
Friday, September 11, 2009
UK Government Bond, Gilt Market’s Uncertainty / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Seven_Days_Ahead
The Macro Trader’s view:
‘The Gilt is a government bond market that is dogged by an unprecedented build of peacetime debt, supported by the Central Bank.’ Discuss.
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Friday, September 11, 2009
Junk Bond Defaults Worst Since Great Depression, Why Is the Stock Market Rallying? / Interest-Rates / Corporate Bonds
By: Mike_Shedlock
Numerous people have asked for an update to Corporate Bond Spreads Key To Continued S&P Rally.
Specifically, inquiring minds are interested in my statement "It will pay to keep one eye on the credit markets to help ascertain long-term equity direction. In August of 2007 the corporate bond market cracked wide open. Although the S&P 500 made a new high in November, the corporate bond market didn't. It was the mother of all warning calls that most missed."
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Move Higher in Spite of Stronger Economic Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market traded mostly positive all week only to give up most of its weekly advance for second time in the past three Fridays. Ironically, the worst fundamental news was released on Friday in the form of the monthly Employment report (see details in the economic data section below).Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, September 07, 2009
A Plan for the Resolution to the Insolvency of the United States Banking System / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mansoor_H_Khan
The core problem of the United States' banking system (and maybe the world's banking system) is not liquidity but insolvency. The liabilities of the United States' banking system exceed the value of its assets. The issue is not only the toxic assets (toxic mortgage backed securities, toxic commercial real estate loans, sub-prime mortgages, alt-A loans, adjustable loans likely to go bust, increase in prime mortgage default rates, etc) but also off-balance sheet liabilities (such as expected huge unaccounted for future derivatives losses).
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Sunday, September 06, 2009
China is Now a Net SELLER of U.S. Treasury Notes and Bonds! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Larson
We told you this was coming. Heck: A blind man could have seen it a mile away.
For many months now, we’ve predicted that Washington’s wild spending and borrowing spree would make the global investors who buy our longer-term Treasuries — notes and bonds — as nervous as long-tailed cats in a room full of rocking chairs.
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Friday, September 04, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Supply and Quantitative Easing, Got Gold? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Adrian_Ash
We are struck by the size of the needs of the State, and the meager assistance offered by patriotic gifts..." - Finance committee of the French National Assembly, March 1790
BY END-JULY 2009, sales of new US Treasury bonds had already outstripped full-year sales in calendar 2008.
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Thursday, September 03, 2009
Can a Central Bank Go Broke? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: David_Howden
Centralized monetary authorities enjoy a privileged position in the current monetary system. People tend to view the economists and politicians at these institutions as demigods, individuals who if given enough resources will ensure that the economy continues an ever-advancing and smooth trajectory. However, unlike the Greek demigods of yore, today's central bankers are mere mortals who must work within the confines and constraints of the institution that they head.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Rising U.S. Treasuries Foretell Lower Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Mike_Paulenoff
While gold prices attempt to break out to the upside, the bond market continues to climb as well. Let's take a look at the pattern developing in the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT).
Monday, August 31, 2009
The Interest Rate Cosa Nostra / Interest-Rates / Market Manipulation
By: Rob_Kirby
Recently, Bloomberg News reported that a legal brouhaha has developed in Italy surrounding the municipality of Milan entering into a refinancing package, including retiring older existing debt and associated interest rate swaps, with a combination of new bonds and interest rate swap agreements designed to protect Milan against a rise in long-term interest rates, back in 2005. This financing was arranged with a quartet of banks including J.P. Morgan Chase, U.B.S. AG, Deutsche Bank AG and Depfa Bank Plc.
Monday, August 31, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bonds Lower, Despite Supportive Fundementals / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market moved up last week as yields dropped across the curve. In spite of stronger than expected economic data, another auction cycle and a rock solid stock market, bonds spent most of the week in positive territory and managed to hold on to their gains better than the previous week.
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Thursday, August 27, 2009
Bernanke: Central Bankers' Bob the Builder? / Interest-Rates / Central Banks
By: Axel_Merk
First, the good news about Bernanke’s nomination for a second term as head of the Federal Reserve (Fed): we know what we are getting and may be able to prepare for the risks his continued leadership may pose to inflation and the dollar. The bad news: more of the same.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields, Someone Is Going To Be Wrong / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Guy_Lerner
For over 8 months now, I have been chronicling the plight of the 10 year Treasury bond. Based upon the "next big thing" indicator it was my expectation that yields on the 10 year Treasury bond would rise once there was a monthly close above a yield of 3.342%. This occurred at the end of May, 2009.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Understanding Money Market Funds / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Paul_Petillo
Paul Volker doesn't like them much. Institutional investors use them frequently. And individual investors, particularly those of the smaller variety don't really understand what they do and in many instances, use them for the wrong reasons. They are like banks but are not regulated as such. The Securities and Exchange Commission currently oversees their activity as per the Investment Company Act of 1940.
Monday, August 24, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Market Kept Positive by Friendly Inflation Data / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Levente_Mady
The bond market ended flat after spending most of the time trying to move up last week. Friendly inflation data and a confirmation of solid international demand kept the market in positive territory for most of the week.
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Monday, August 24, 2009
Global Debt Bubble, Steve Keen on Causes and Solutions / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2009
By: Mike_Shedlock
Australian economist Steve Keen is one of the very few who have called this economic crisis correctly. What distinguishes Keen is that his economic forecasts are based on levels of debt and changes in levels of debt as opposed to money supply, output capacity and other things that led most economists astray.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Big Interest Rate Move Around the Corner? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates
By: Marty_Chenard
Interest rates ... housing demand ... housing affordability ... bank loans ...
Headline confusion? ... Here are the current housing related headlines on a Yahoo news search:
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Saturday, August 22, 2009
Even Warren Buffett Is Now Saying U.S. Treasury Bonds Could Crack! / Interest-Rates / US Bonds
By: Money_and_Markets
Mike Larson writes: I’ve made no secret about my view on U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar …
I’ve minced no words, and cut no corners …
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Thursday, August 20, 2009
Monetization of U.S. Treasury Bonds In Isolation / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing
By: Jim_Willie_CB
Every few months a chart comes along that needs almost no follow-on paragraphs to make the point of the issue. The chart provided by CIGA Eric covers several important types of US$-based bonds, their inflow and outflow, and the aggregate GrandNet. The financial data is publicly available from the USGovt TIC Reports. The messages are clear. Inflows of foreign funds are dwindling.