Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Wednesday, May 07, 2014
Stock Market Supports Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
After several attempts, SPX broke through its Short-term support at 1876.07 and is headed for its combined Intermediate-term and 50-day Moving Average at 1864.91. It has passed through that area so many times it is a wonder whether it may even stop.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Elliott Wave Analysis of the Dow Transports / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The advance from the 2009 lows appears to be showing a 3 wave move, although that potentially could morph into a 5 wave move later on. The price action from the Oct 2011 lows is what I personally watching.
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Tuesday, May 06, 2014
Stock Market Reverses Off Decent Gap Down.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
A big gap down occurred today across the board. It looked like the bears finally had their gap down. All they had to do was hold this gap down and run lower all day. That would create a huge technical headache for the bulls and market nirvana for the bears. Within the first couple of hours those gaps were filled. The opportunity was lost. This doesn't mean things are hopeless for the bears, but it was a great opportunity wasted to be sure. When you get something you desperately need, and let it go so easily, it has to be somewhat deflating. The gap down was nearly a ten handle on the S&P 500 and that's not small.
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Monday, May 05, 2014
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis - German DAX and S&P500 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
German DAX is still moving sideways within wave 4) which we think it represents a triangle. We see prices at the upper side of a range so ideally a downward retracement will follow in wave E to complete the pattern around 9200-9300.
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Monday, May 05, 2014
Stock Market Sentiment Worsens But No Confirmation of Trend Reversal Yet / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are still favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, May 05, 2014
Stock Market Critical Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Probably tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Monday, May 05, 2014
Stock Market Choppy Earnings Season but the Bull Remains Firmly Intact / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
It was a choppy earnings season but despite its volatility the bull trend remains very much intact.
The Dow Transports and Dow Industrials both are trending upward with higher highs and higher lows and both indices are in congruence. (Though it must be noted that the Transports Index is significantly stronger than the Industrials). In addition The VIX remains at historically low levels and the Advance/Decline line shows no sign of any technical stress what-so-ever.
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Sunday, May 04, 2014
Elliott Wave Analysis of Dow Stock Index 5th Wave Terminating Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The trend from Oct 2011 is likely in its final stages, it appears wave [5] could be a possible ending diagonal so we are monitoring a potential bearish wedge shape, the RSI appears to be confirming the advance being a 5th wave terminating rally.
Once completed we are looking for opportunities to sell the DOW either by selling the market directing via the YM (e-mini futures) or potentially buying puts.
Sunday, May 04, 2014
Is it Time to Sell Australia Stock Market? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
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I had initially suspected a major peak was in place back in April 2013, with a potentially completed pattern it looked like that forecast was starting to work, but nothing tends to be that simple these days, the decline from the 2013 peak started to look very corrective, so I had to abandon the call for a peak and look for alternatives ideas that would suggest a move higher, even if a marginal new high.
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Sunday, May 04, 2014
Stock Market Elliott Wave Primary III Still Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market made some progress this week. Thanks to the two gap up openings early in the week, and no surprises from the FED or Q1 GDP. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.35%, and the DJ World index was +1.10%. Economic reports for the week remained positive. On the uptick: pending homes sales, ADP, Chicago PMI, personal income/spending, PCE, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales, Payrolls, factory orders, and the WLEI. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, Q1 GDP, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get reports on ISM services and Consumer credit, plus Congressional testimony from FED chair Yellen on Wednesday.
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Saturday, May 03, 2014
Stock Market Friday Failure ...But Still Nothing Bearish..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market received the news it was looking for this morning. The market was right near the breakout on both the S&P 500 and Dow with great news to move it on through. Didn't happen. The futures blasted up showing a breakout, but they failed as the pre-market period wore on. We gapped up a bit, but the day was not to be kind to the bulls with regards to that breakout. The S&P 500 came within six points of its old high before falling. The Dow came close as well before selling as the day wore on, while the Nasdaq got within a few points of back testing its 50-day exponential moving average. That too was the sell off point. To sum it up, the Nasdaq failed below its 50's, while the S&P 500 and Dow failed at horizontal breakout prices.
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Thursday, May 01, 2014
Three Ways to Profit from an Exhausted Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
George Leong writes: When I’m looking at the screens each day, I notice there’s some selling capitulation occurring that makes me think back to 2000, when the technology stocks imploded.
Now, while I doubt we are seeing a repeat of 14 years ago, you have to wonder about the mad dash to the exits for many of the high-momentum technology stocks along with small-cap stocks. The small-caps are under threat, with the Russell 2000 down nearly eight percent in 2014 so far and close to five percent in April alone. Watch as the index is just above its 200-day moving average (MA).
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Thursday, May 01, 2014
The Stocks Bull Market That Won't Quit....For Now...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Last night and this morning's pre-market offered up opportunities for the bears to do some real technical damage due to a one-two punch from earnings last night, and a terrible Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) report this morning before trading began. Express Scripts Holding Company (ESRX), Panera Bread Company (PNRA), eBay Inc. (EBAY) and Twitter, Inc., the most important earnings for the evening, all bombed out on their reports. All fell very hard after those numbers were reported. Four for four on the downside, and not just down a little bit but down between four and thirteen percent.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Stock Market Pop-n-drop Tuesday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Good Morning!
Yesterday evening as I looked at the SPX, it appeared complete, as the retracement had gone 61.8% as of the close. However, the Wave structure of the retracement was 3-3-3, when it should have been 3-3-5. This morning it appears that the 5th wave may go to thew top of Wave (iv) at 1877.02 or the 78.6% retracement at 1877.63.
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Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Stock Market S&P 1,880 or Bust Again – China’s Melting Away! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
What total BS this market is.
NDX fell all the way to 3,480 yesterday but finished the day at 3,556, recovering 76 points (2%) in two hours. Hey, a few more days of gains at that rate and we'll be well over the 1999 highs – GO MARKETS!!!
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Tuesday, April 29, 2014
Stock Market - Finally Some Bullish Signs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, April 28, 2014
All Stock Market Indices are Fata Morganas / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Have you ever wondered what information a stock market index actually gives? An index point is not a fixed unit in time and does not have any historical significance.Two measurements during a marathon
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Monday, April 28, 2014
Stock Market Short-term vs Long-term / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Probably tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Saturday, April 26, 2014
Stock Market Bad Day, But Only Down 0.08% for the Week / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: This morning’s Consumer Sentiment for April was surprisingly upbeat, but the market had a bad day today, with NASDAQ’s Amazon (AMZN) down a whopping 9.88%. The S&P 500 opened in the shallow red at its intraday high, ignored the positive Consumer Sentiment report, and sold off in a couple of waves to a relatively narrow afternoon trading range. The index hit its -1.01% intraday low at 2:30 PM but trimmed the loss to 0.81% at the close. It was a bad day for the 500, but the index was only down a fractional 0.08% for the week.
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Saturday, April 26, 2014
Is U.S. Housing Ringing The Stock Market’s Bell Again? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
It is said that they don’t ring a bell at stock market tops.
However, the housing industry has sometimes been quite adept at doing just that. In fact, it has been quite prescient in leading the economy, and thus the stock market, in both directions.
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