Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Stock Market Primary IV Underway / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Tony_Caldaro
Another wild and volatile week. The week started off calm enough, for this market, with a continuation rally gap up on Monday as the SPX hit 1978 in the first few minutes. Then the market declined to a slightly lower low for the downtrend at SPX 1925 by Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon, however, the market rocketed to SPX 1970 just before the close. Then after a quiet opening on Thursday the market gave it all back and made new downtrend lows on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.9%, the NDX/NAZ lost 4.2%, and the DJ World index lost 2.8%. Economic reports for the week were light, but decidedly negative. On the downtick: consumer credit, export/import prices, the WLEI and investor sentiment. On the uptick: wholesale inventories. Next week we get the FED’s Beige book, retail sales, industrial production, reports on housing, and it’s options expiration Friday.
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Can the Fed Come To the Rescue Again If Needed? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Sy_Harding
My concerns about high market valuations, excessive investor euphoria, the Fed eliminating its QE stimulus, growing economic woes in euro-land and so forth, became more serious when my firm’s technical indicators triggered a sell signal on July 31.
As readers know, we had been cautious, expecting a 15% to 20% correction at some point, to a low in the October/ November time-frame. With the July 31 sell signal on the technical indicators, we put 20% of our portfolio in initial downside positions in inverse etf’s.
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Saturday, October 11, 2014
Stock Market Gives It Up..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
In a big way. This was inevitable. The market couldn't stay up as it was forever based on the degree of froth it was dealing with on a daily basis for many, many months. Actually since late February. Froth can take a market higher than anyone thinks possible, but it is amazing how fast the carnage can come. How fast things actually fall. Months of upside can be wiped out in days or weeks. The grind to the upside seemingly never happened when you look at how fast those grinding gains are wiped out. This is how corrections and bear markets work. They are very intense. They create tremendous emotion. Fear ramps very quickly.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Looking for a Minor Pivot Low Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
SPX is still lower in the Premarket. I am referring to the daily SPX chart to show the next levels of support. They are the mid-Cycle support at 1911.38 and the 200-day Moving Average at 1904.86.
The original reason for calling for a bottom today is that the Trading Cycle (~60-64 days) is due. However, the SPX is in a Panic Cycle (43 days), so today’s low will be a lesser Pivot, not a major low.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Global Stock Market Shock as "Captured" System Starts to Crack / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: GoldCore
This week has seen some market volatility (see VIX Chart) reminiscent of the functioning market from days of old. The markets are spooked, bad news is overtaking good news and bearish views are becoming vogue. We are seeing a titanic battle taking place between the various bull and bear camps and they are starting to unleash some serious firepower.
The sleepy volumes of late have ticked up appreciably, and small investors are shifting in their seats nervously. The secret that no one really wants to admit (especially while they are making money) is that the recent stock market rally is a gargantous fraud. It has very shaky foundations indeed, propped up on pillars of monetary jelly. At its core is a massive money creation machine which is utterly unaccountable and unelected and a very select credit distribution system.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
The Stock Market Cycle’s Slippery Slope / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Harry_Dent
Will this bubble burst anytime soon? Will we have inflation or deflation? There are lots of questions being asked.
The inability for economists and financial analysts to understand the most basic principle of cycles is just beyond comprehension… especially since we’ve been in this bubble era since 1995. How could so many be arguing that we’re not in a bubble when we have seen one bubble after the next rise and then burst as they always do?
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Reset Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Alasdair_Macleod
Recent evidence points increasingly towards global economic contraction. Parts of the Eurozone are in great difficulty, and only last weekend S&P the rating agency warned that Greece will default on its debts “at some point in the next fifteen months”. Japan is collapsing under the wealth-destruction of Abenomics. China is juggling with a debt bubble that threatens to implode. The US tells us through government statistics that their outlook is promising, but the reality is very different with one-third of employable adults not working; furthermore the GDP deflator is significantly greater than officially admitted. And the UK is financially over-geared and over-dependent on a failing Eurozone.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Forget What Stock Market Analysts Say, Both of These Omens Mean Big Profits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Sid Riggs writes: It's been 14 trading sessions since the financial media was abuzz with the fact that the Russell 2000 Index experienced a Death Cross. That is to say, its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) trended below its 200-day SMA. The coverage was all about why the Death Cross spelled impending doom for small-cap stocks and, by extension, the entire stock market.
In fact, in all of the Death Cross commentary I saw on television and read on the Internet there was no mention of historical performance after a Death Cross. None! Just a lot of hyperbole about why we should be concerned.
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Friday, October 10, 2014
Stock Market Roller Coaster Ride as Worst Day Follows Best Day / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The stock market just took another lurch to the downside as one of the best days of the year for the Dow (+275) was followed by the worst day of the year (-335) which represents over a fortnight of wild gyrations as the stocks bull market after its mid September high appears to have hit a brick wall that is literally grinding the strength out of market with panic inducing moves that have been encouraging the perma-bears to literally scream at the top of their lungs that this time, THIS TIME the bull market really is over!
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Apple Pie, Economic Growth & Fatal Stock Market Flaws / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Dan_Amerman
What is it that will actually determine: 1) how our retirement investments will perform, 2) at what age we will be able to retire, and 3) what our standard of living in retirement will be?
For the usual answers, we've been taught to turn to the assumptions of conventional financial planning. But there's a problem with doing so, which is that the path that the economy and investments have actually taken over the last decade and more doesn't seem to have been anticipated in the usual assumptions.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Yesterday's Fed News Proved We Need a Stock Market Correction More Than Ever / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Money_Morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: I have long said that the Fed has never met a printing press it didn't like nor a dove that it didn't want to set free in the name of higher stock prices. And, yesterday, yet again, Yellen proved it.
Within minutes of releasing its latest set of notes hinting that the Fed will keep rates near zero, the S&P 500 took off on a 34-point gain that is the biggest so far this year. Moving first 45 points from its low of 1,925 to its peak of 1,970 in less than five hours (it later settled slightly lower), the index shrugged off the prior day's losses amidst global growth concerns and weaker European economic data.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Stock Market Reversal.....Fed Loves A Bull..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Jack_Steiman
What a day. We were down over 4% from the top on the S&P 500 just when those Fed minutes were ready to come out this afternoon. The market was already enjoying a strong bounce up when Fed Yellen came out and gave the market what it wanted. Low rates forever, it seems. Not hard to figure out since she hated what she saw around the world with regards to weakening economies. Global weakness along with weakening housing prices have her running scared, and when she's scared the market is very happy, because she makes statements she knows the market will just love. She turned more dovish again, and the market knows this means there's really not many other places to go. Folks bullied into a bull market continues, for now, although risk is still tremendous. Even though the market reversed hard today, it doesn't mean we're out of the woods by any means. We can back test the lost 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages and simply fall again, but I have to say that some of today's reversals were just stunning.
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Thursday, October 09, 2014
Rally Leaves the Stock Market Breadthless / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The Feds were playing with their jack-in-the-box again with a 70% retracement of sub-Minute Wave i. They had a little help from BoJ’s Kuroda with a spike up in USD/JPY to 108.74 just before 2:00. Since 2:00, it has declined back down to as low as 108.05.
It is clear that they are attempting to get liquidity by stopping the shorts out of their positions. But it’s not a change of trend. Resistance at the lower trendline of the larger Orthodox Broadening Top appears to be the stopper.
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Stock Market Decline May Accelerate / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
You can see that the Broadening Wedge visible on the daily charts was triggered yesterday. It has a similar target to the Orthodox Broadening Top.
SPX just exceeded last Thursday’s low, so it will continue its decline with the next support at 1904.14 to 1911.13, where we can see the mid-Cycle support and 200-day Moving Average.
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Wednesday, October 08, 2014
Stocks Retrace Last Week’s Rally As Investors’ Sentiment Worsens / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,985 and profit target at 1,900, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Is The Stocks Bull Market Complete? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Ed_Carlson
With all possible counts for a basic advance from the 2011 lows having expired and a right shoulder (9/17/14) printed and confirmed by middle section counts we know that the bull market is complete. However, it never hurts to have some affirmation along the way that rallies like Friday's are nothing more than hiccups in the bear market.
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Tuesday, October 07, 2014
Final Stock Market Supports Being Broken / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
The SPX Premarket is testing the lower trendline of the lesser Broadening Top formation at 1957.00 as I write. Once this is broken, there is no further support until we arrive at the 200-day Moving Average at 1902.00. This may be our target for the next 24 hours.
Monday, October 06, 2014
Stock Market Pop-n-Drop Mini Crash Today / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
I spent a good part of the weekend installing the “Hidden Cycle” patterns (green on the daily) into my Cycles Model. I had theorized last December that this Cycle should be tracked, since it could become a dominant new Cycle. The theory was tested and proven, as the “Hidden Cycle” has now become the dominant one.
Monday, October 06, 2014
Stocks Bounced Off Sharply Following Recent Move Down - Downtrend Reversal Or Just Correction? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Paul_Rejczak
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 1,985 and profit target at 1,900, S&P 500 index)
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bearish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: bearish
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, October 06, 2014
Stock Market Odds Favor More Weakness Ahead! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Long-term trend - In 1932 and 1974, the 40-yr cycle was responsible for protracted market weakness. The current phase is due this year but where is the weakness? Has man (Federal Reserve) finally achieved dominance over universal rhythms or has it simply delayed the inevitable?
Intermediate trend - We are looking for the move from 1905 to end, after which a much more serious correction should start. (It has probably started!)
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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