Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, July 07, 2014
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short. Here is a update in response to a standing request from David England, a retired professor now actively educating investors through his Trader’s Eye website. In his presentations, he likes to disprove the standard message of Wall Street, “Don’t worry! The market will always come back.” I furnished David with some charts, and I now share them with regular visitors to my Advisor Perspectives pages.
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Monday, July 07, 2014
The Truman Show Stock Market - How Things Look And What They Are / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We hugely underestimate what it means not to have a functioning financial system and economy. It even feels sort of fine for a while, both to the richer part of our population who get richer, and to the rest who fall for the dream that things in their lives will get better again soon. But there is still a big difference between what things look like, and what they really are. And one day we will need to snap out of the dream and face reality.
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Monday, July 07, 2014
Another Minor Stock Market Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - The DOW may be tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.
Analysis of the short-term trend is done on a daily basis with the help of hourly charts. It is an important adjunct to the analysis of daily and weekly charts which discusses the course of longer market trends.
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Sunday, July 06, 2014
Stock Market Primary III Wave Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The holiday shortened week started on Monday with new bull markets highs, and continued making higher highs nearly every day this week. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.3%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.3%, and the DJ World index gained 1.4%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. But the big news was the 288k jump in payrolls and the decline in the unemployment rate to 6.1%. On the uptick: pending home sales, construction spending, the ADP index and the Trade deficit improved. On the downtick: the Chicago PMI, factory orders, ISM manufacturing/services, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get reports on Consumer credit, the Treasury deficit, and the FOMC minutes.
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Saturday, July 05, 2014
Islamic Extremism and Emerging Market Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By By Mark Galasiewski,
We have for many years observed a relationship between extremism and bear markets in the stock markets of Muslim nations. For example, this chart shows the deadliest Islamic terrorist attacks graphed against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since the start of the index on December 31, 1987. Notice that many the attacks occurred near lows in the index.
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Friday, July 04, 2014
Dow 17,000 - How Much More Overextended Before This Nonsense is Done! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The Dow Industrial Average closed over 17,000 for the first time today.
The markets are now closed, in early observance of the 4th of July national holiday.
The equity markets are becoming overextended here. They more become a little more overextended before this nonsense is done, and then we will see a pullback of sorts. Wash and rinse.
Wednesday, July 02, 2014
Will Overseas Stock Market Volatility Hit U.S. Shores? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
While the U.S. indices have been mostly upbeat, most of the action has been in Europe.Stocks across several European exchanges were hard hit last week as investors overseas panicked over a slate of negative news – the same news, ironically, that investors in the U.S. blithely ignored. Adding to the dramatic reversal in sentiment, the European Commission reported on Friday an unexpected drop in household and business economic confidence. Economists are also concerned about the threat of deflation since the euro zone inflation rate remains stubbornly below 1%.
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Tuesday, July 01, 2014
Islamic Extremism and Emerging Market Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
By By Mark Galasiewski,
We have for many years observed a relationship between extremism and bear markets in the stock markets of Muslim nations. For example, this chart shows the deadliest Islamic terrorist attacks graphed against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since the start of the index on December 31, 1987. Notice that many the attacks occurred near lows in the index.
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Tuesday, July 01, 2014
The Stock Market is Overvalued, Caution is Warranted / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Back in 2001 Buffett said in an interview with Fortune Magazine that “the single best measure” of stock market valuation is by taking the total market cap (TMC) and dividing it by the total gross domestic product (GDP). Today TMC is equal to 114.5% of total GDP.At the market top in 2007, just prior to a -54% crash in stocks, TMC was equal to 104.9%. According to Buffett’s “favorite” market timing indicator stocks are more overvalued today than in 2007.
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Tuesday, July 01, 2014
Stock Market Grinder... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The market wants to correct. You can feel it. It has a pulse. It has an energy. The problem thus far has been the constant burn the bears have felt every time they've tried to front run. You can see the market struggle for every point as the daily chart oscillators are starting to weaken as we grind higher. As the market moves up, the MACD is not. The RSI and stochastics aren't forceful, but the MACD is the real problem child in the world of momentum oscillators. They are screaming for a pullback of some kind, but it'll take something to kick start the event. Maybe it'll be tomorrow's ISM Manufacturing Report.
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Monday, June 30, 2014
Dirt Cheap Global Stock Markets / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: You probably haven't noticed, but boring government bonds are up double digits this year...
U.S. stocks continue to push to all-time highs as well... even Europe is soaring to multiyear highs.
Today, we've got uptrends around the globe. The big question is... after so many investments have run up so high, where is the value in the world today? Is there any left out there?
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Monday, June 30, 2014
Why You Shouldn’t Sell This Dull Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Alexander Green writes: The Dow hasn't done much this year, meandering up and down and delivering a low single-digit return year-to-date.
Stocks look boring to investors. So many are selling them for alternative investments.
This is almost certainly making a mistake.
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Monday, June 30, 2014
Stock Market Short-Term Uncertainty As Investors Await Quarter's End, Economic Data Releases / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook remains neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral, following last Tuesday's intraday reversal:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, June 30, 2014
Stock Market Bearish Indexes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - The DOW may be tracing out an ending diagonal pattern.
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Monday, June 30, 2014
US Stock Markets Can’t Get No Respect ..BUT… / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
In this Weekend Report I’d like to show you some charts on the different US stock markets and some of the stronger sectors within the US markets. It seems like no one believes this rally taking place in the US stock markets and many stock markets abroad. The mantra is we have to have a correction because markets can’t keep going up like this , which is true , but the stock markets will let us know when it’s time for a correction. Right now most of the charts are looking positive with no sign of a top in place yet. This could all change next week but right now things are looking much more bullish than bearish.
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Sunday, June 29, 2014
Stocks - What to Do When Interest Rates Will Rise / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Most experts don't want to admit it... but there's actually plenty of room for stocks to go much higher from here – even through the end of 2016.
We certainly have some signs of a market top out there... But before you sell everything, I urge you to seriously consider today's essay.
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Sunday, June 29, 2014
Central Bank Stocks Buying Binge / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Central banks have shifted into stocks and are buying up everything that isn’t bolted to the floor.
That’s the gist of the story that breathlessly appeared in the Financial Times about a week ago and swept across the blogosphere like a Santa Anna brushfire. And there’s some truth to it too, if taken with a large grain of salt. Here’s a clip from the Omfif’s report the FT’s cites in the article:
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Saturday, June 28, 2014
Stock Market Bouncing Bubble / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We don't need no stinkin' recovery.
Stocks just need the easy money Fed.
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Saturday, June 28, 2014
Stock Market Getting Frothy ? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The general market made a new bull market high on Tuesday at SPX 1968, dropped to 1945 by Thursday, and then rallied to 1961 to end the week. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.35%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.90%, and the DJ World index was -0.25%. Economic reports for the week were slightly positive. On the uptick: existing/new home sales, personal income/spending, consumer confidence/sentiment and PCE prices. On the downtick: Q1 GDP, Case-Shiller, durable goods orders, the LEI and the monetary base. Next week we get reports on Nonfarm payrolls, ISM and the Chicago PMI.
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Saturday, June 28, 2014
Stock Market Bullish Until Proven Otherwise..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
We were gapping down once again this Friday morning. It wasn't a massive gap down, but it had potential. A five handle on the S&P 500 isn't major, but it is something the bears can work with. Within minutes their dream was gone. Once again the bears refused to get in front of the selling out of the gate, thus, the bulls were able to keep things going albeit slowly as the day moved along. A nice rush very late in the day gave the market a push to the green. Once again, the bears have to be shaking their heads wondering what it'll take to sell a market that has everything going against it.
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