Category: Stock Markets 2014
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Saturday, April 12, 2014
Stock Market Bears Taking Over....Deeply Oversold Short Term... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
It's the same old story folks. The bears bring the market indexes down to critical support zones. All they need is a gap down. Just one nasty gap down to put the final nail in the coffin. You can forget about that. Instead of gap downs we get gap ups. The bulls, where they have to, gap it up and send the bears back into hibernation. I know it makes absolutely no sense with how nasty those daily, weekly, and monthly charts look, but you can't fight the Fed, who, once again, reassured the market with the Fed minutes report that all is well. Ms. Yellen said she will be there to make sure the bull market continues with low rates. Once the Fed minutes came out, a good day for the bulls turned into a great day for them as the market doubled its gains into the close.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 12, 2014
Stock Market - It’s Not Time to Panic… It’s Time to Buy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Michael A. Robinson writes: Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve heard some pundits on TV refer to the current tech market as a “crash” in the making.
Don’t believe them.
Seems like whenever some big tech leaders get clipped, the “pundits” come out of the woodwork with all sorts of dire predictions.
Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, April 11, 2014
Stock Market Selloff Resumes / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The pre-market release of an unexpectedly good jobless claims report was ignored by today’s market. The three-day selloff in the S&P 500 that began last Thursday resumed after a two-day reprieve. The index fell steadily through the day with a failed attempt to reverse directions in the early afternoon and again in the closing hour. The -2.09% final tally was fractionally off the -2.21% intraday low shortly after 3 PM. This was the second worst decline of the year — the worst being the -2.28% of February 3rd. Once again the Tech Sector posted the biggest declines, with the Nasdaq Composite down 3.10%, its biggest drop since November 2011.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2014
S&P 500: Bearish Reversal / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
S&P 500 found a support in the last 48 hours after a completed impulse decline from 1892. As such, current rally can be sharp corrective recovery that should then find a top somewhere around 1865/1870 zone. A reversal from here and back to 1844 would be a strong and important evidence for a downtrend continuation to a new swing low and possibly even to 1800.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Considering Dumping Stocks? Why You Should Reconsider / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
George Leong writes: I’m starting to receive more questions regarding the state of the stock market and whether it’s simply a bout of profit-taking or the set-up of a deeper stock market correction.
First of all, panicking is not what you want to do. Yes, we are seeing some selling surfacing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should go and dump stocks.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2014
A Dovish Fed Feeds the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The interim rally that began yesterday picked up steam today, assisted by 2 PM FOMC minutes, which the market saw as accommodative in removing “outdated” the 6.5 percent unemployment target for raising interest rates. The S&P 500 opened higher and traded up to a narrow mid-day range prior to release of the Fed minutes. Promptly at 2 PM the index roared higher and overcame a bit of 3 PM selling with a second advance. It closed with a 1.09% gain for the day, just fractionally off its 1.11% intraday high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, April 10, 2014
Stock Market Bears Let It Slip Away.....Again...For Now.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
It's the same old story folks. The bears bring the market indexes down to critical support zones. All they need is a gap down. Just one nasty gap down to put the final nail in the coffin. You can forget about that. Instead of gap downs we get gap ups. The bulls, where they have to, gap it up and send the bears back into hibernation. I know it makes absolutely no sense with how nasty those daily, weekly, and monthly charts look, but you can't fight the Fed, who, once again, reassured the market with the Fed minutes report that all is well. Ms. Yellen said she will be there to make sure the bull market continues with low rates. Once the Fed minutes came out, a good day for the bulls turned into a great day for them as the market doubled its gains into the close.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Stock Market Three-Day Selloff Ends / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Today the S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak with a modest gain. The bounce was largely driven by a reversal in the recent plunge in Tech stocks, with IYW (the iShares Tech ETF) up 0.99%. The 500 opened fractionally higher and then sold off to its -0.41% intraday low. It then recovered to a relatively narrow trading range from the late morning to its 0.38% advance at the closing bell, which was off its 0.54% mid-day high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, April 09, 2014
Dow Stock Market Double Top - Fib or Fact? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
As of last Wednesday, the Dow has printed a double top. The time span between 12/31/13 and Wednesday’s closing high is 92 days. A Fibonacci 38.2% of the distance between those two dates is 35 days and 35 days past 12/31/13 marked the closing low on 2/3/14.
Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, April 08, 2014
Dow and Nikkei Stock Market Tops / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Nikkei top and relationship with the DOW - UPDATE - DOW wave (5) top and Nikkei wave (2) top
We issued a newsletter on Feb 17th discussing the possible relationship between the Nikkei and the DOW. The newsletter included charts to illustrate this relationship and suggested that we would see a DOW top while the Nikkei completes wave (2) up. This appears to have occurred on Apr 3 2014 for the Nikkei and on Apr 4 2014 for the DOW. Some of the charts below are from the Feb 17th newsletter.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2014
Stock Market Selloff New Downtrend Or Just A Short-Term Pullback? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are justified.
Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook is now neutral, following Friday’s move down:
Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
Monday, April 07, 2014
Rising Interest Rate Realities / Interest-Rates / Stock Markets 2014
The entire global economy now clings precariously to one crucial phenomenon. That is, how much longer can the central banks of the developed world artificially suppress interest rates at near zero percent?
The violently-negative market reaction to Janet Yellen's comments during her first press conference was a clear indication of how vulnerable the stock market is to the eventual reality of rising interest rates. All Ms. Yellen did was remind investors that the Fed Funds Rate would have to be moved up from zero percent -- probably beginning in the middle of next year. That was enough to send the major averages cascading downward faster than you could say the words "flash trading."
Monday, April 07, 2014
US Stocks Down, JPY Up After NFP / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Morning traders! I hope that you had a great and relaxing weekend as markets can be very interesting in this week after strong sell-off on US stocks on Friday, after the US jobs report. We see markets in risk-off mode, but interesting that, despite a strong move down on stocks USD did not move much to the upside. We have seen a strong upward reaction on US Notes and German Bund market while stocks were falling which was ideal for lower {{3|USD/JPY}} and Yen crosses.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2014
Current Jakarta Composite Stock Index Index Run Up Sustainable? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
The recent run-up of the Jakarta Composite Index has nothing to do with improving fundamentals in the Indonesian economy but more towards an election play. For all is known, the Indonesian economy is far from out of the woods. Although recently the Indonesian economy managed to record trade surpluses, it is mainly due to the rise in exports. Exports are brought forward from the mining sector as a result of an anticipated ban on mineral exports after Jan 12, 2014. Moreover the sudden surge in the economic activity for the past few months has mainly due to the increased public spending geared towards the run up of the elections. Whatever it is, the Indonesian economy is still very weak and will have problem maintaining the momentum as soon as the elections ends next week.
Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, April 07, 2014
Are Leading Stock Market Indexes Turning Bearish? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are in their down phases, and if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over), there will be another steep decline into late 2014. However, the Fed policy of keeping interest rates low has severely curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 40-yr and 120-yr cycles.
Intermediate trend - Failed to overcome resistance at the high.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2014
Stock Market Record High Precedes a 1.25% Selloff / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Courtesy of Doug Short: Friday morning’s much anticipated March employment report delivered no surprises. The S&P 500 rallied at the opening bell and hit its all-time high a minute later. The index traded sideways for the next hour and then began a steady selloff to its -1.35% mid-afternoon low. At the closing bell the index had trimmed its loss to -1.25%, its fourth worst loss of the year, well off the -2.28% on February 3rd. The selling was most pronounced in tech stocks, with the NASDAQ plunging 2.60%, its second worst session in 2014 (the worst was -2.61% on February 3rd).
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2014
The Stock Market’s Annual Seasonality is a Real Concern This Year / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
As we move into April, it’s important to look at the stock market’s long history of making most of its gains each year in a favorable ‘season’ of November to April, while most of its corrections and bear market down-legs take place in an unfavorable season from May to October.
Many academic studies and investment strategies going back to the 1970’s have confirmed the pattern, long referred to as ‘Sell in May and Go Away’.
Read full article... Read full article...
Saturday, April 05, 2014
Stock Markets Bubbles and Parabolic Slope Theory / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Parabolic Slope Theory
There has been extensive discussion questioning the current rally and if it has reached bubble status. Firstly, what is a bubble from a technical standpoint? A bubble is a parabolic advance in a market or stock where the price appears to move straight up without normal corrections. The corrections or pullbacks are small, sending the stock or index straight up. Greed and euphoria are high and complacency is low. The higher the market or stock moves, the bigger the bubble and the more pain on the way back down.
Friday, April 04, 2014
Time to Ditch Stock Market Swinging Cyclicals? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
George Leong writes: The stock market appears to be getting somewhat top-heavy. Scanning through my screens, I am quite amazed to find that the majority of S&P 500 stocks are well above their respective 200-day moving averages, which makes opportunities much more difficult to come by for the average investor who might look at their portfolio once a week or month.
But the buying in the stock market has still largely been with the technology, growth, and small-cap stocks, due to the higher potential to make quick money versus investing in blue chips or industrial companies.
Thursday, April 03, 2014
Stock Market Waiting On Jobs... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014
Rotation continues. While many areas unwind we see rotation as usual. The transports hit an all-time high today, while the retail stocks held up very well, with transports allowing the market to hold basically flat lined. The S&P 500 holding the 1883 breakout for now. It appears the market is now in wait mode to see how those jobs numbers come in. In order to continue the breakout over 1883 on the S&P 500 with force, it seems as if it's going to need some further proof all is well with a decent jobs report.
Read full article... Read full article...