Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Short Term Silver Prices and the Next Leg in Sentiment / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

In 1863, the Rothschild brothers of London wrote to associates in New York introducing their banking method into America that:

“The few who understand the system will either be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”

Friday, August 16, 2013

Gold as a System Hedge / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Matt_Machaj

Last week we focused on the idea that gold is not an inflation hedge. Today, we will develop this notion even further. If we’re talking about gold as a hedge, it is rather a system-hedge than an inflation-hedge. Since 1973, when the dollar was allowed to float, gold has confirmed this view.

Friday, August 16, 2013

Gold GLD ETF Breaks Out, TLT Breaks Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

GLD broke out this afternoon, creating a temporary “safe haven” for investors fleeing stocks. See the next chart.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Will China Confiscate its Citizen's Gold? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

At one point we thought we were alone in believing that eventually we would see a confiscation of citizen's gold in one or more countries. Then we saw the confiscation of deposits in Cyprus in line with a "bail-in" policy. While this was a banking measure in line with the normal liquidation of a company, it was endorsed by most nations thereafter. The greatest impact was seen on investors worldwide who had never thought that such events would happen.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

What the Silver to Gold Ratio Tell Us About Silver’s Future Price Moves? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

In our previous essay we focused on silver’s relationship with the general stock market. Today, we think it would be interesting to revisit the silver-to-gold ratio.  However, before we do that,  let's check the recent price action in silver and gold.

Yesterday, silver posted biggest six-day gains in 2 years. Today, in pre-market trading, the white metal climbed up once again and reached the highest level in a month as holdings in the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust (SLV ETF), rose to a four-month high.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Can Saudi Arabia Pump Enough Crude Oil ? / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: Andrew_McKillop

PREVENTING OIL SHOCK – OR CAUSING IT
One of Wikileaks' most celebrated revelations, in 2011, was a confidential mail from a US diplomat in KSA (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) stating that he had been convinced by a Saudi oil expert named Sadad al-Husseini using data from as far back as 2005 that the nation's oil reserves are overstated by nearly 40%. The diplomat was certain that KSA could not “keep a lid on oil prices”.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Silver: The Gold Silver Ratio Bottom Finder / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: DeviantInvestor

Six of eight significant silver market lows in the past 23 years occurred when the GSR (gold to silver ratio) was > 64 and the RSI (Relative Strength Index of the GSR was < 35.

Silver, in late June and early July 2013, met the above criteria, along with a near record low RSI of the GSR, and a record low in the TDI Trade Signal Line. These are strongly bullish conditions.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Today's "Gold Convergence" is Your Best Buy Signal Yet / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: We've been recommending gold shares for months now, ever since prices collapsed in April. But timing's getting critical, because now the market is telling you gold is set to surge...

The first piece of evidence hit my radar on August 1st, moments after Barrick Gold released its $8.7 billion "news." (More on that in a minute.)

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Silver Price Correction Over, Seasonally Strong September Ahead / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

All the signs are that silver's long correction is now over and that it is beginning a major uptrend. The Commercials have cleared out most of their short positions, for a massive profit of course, meaning that the slate is wiped clean for the game to start over anew. Public opinion and sentiment towards silver remains rotten, which is exactly what you expect to see at a major low, with the investing public at large, having been duly "educated" by the mainstream media, harboring a negative attitude to silver and if anything inclined to short it. Lastly, seasonal factors couldn't be better - August and September are good months for gold which will have a positive influence on silver and September is traditionally the best month of the year for silver by far.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Gold Right on the Doorsteps of a Big Rally / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Clive_Maund

All the pieces are in place for a major uptrend in gold to begin right away, and it appears to be starting as this is being prepared. The Commercials have cleared out virtually all of their short positions, for a massive profit of course, meaning that the slate is wiped clean for the game to start over anew. Public opinion and sentiment towards gold remains rotten, which is exactly what you expect to see at a major low, with the investing public at large, having been duly "educated" by the mainstream media, harboring a negative attitude to gold and if anything inclined to short it. Lastly, seasonal factors couldn't be better - August and September are traditionally the best months of the year for gold.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Gold Stocks are Leaving the Station / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

All aboard and back up the truck. The recovery train is soon to leave the station for higher prices!

Obviously, the ideal time for that would have been at the exact bottom. Hours before that bottom we penned an article titled, Epic Opportunity in Gold Stocks. A number of factors came together making a near bulletproof case for a major bottom. Bulletproof is a dangerous word to use and especially for someone (cough, me!) who had anticipated a huge rebound as early as the spring.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Gold - Hidden Agenda Behind the Bear Raid / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Toby_Connor

First off let's go over the key cyclical points from today's action. Today gold broke above the cycle downtrend line, thus confirming August 7 as a daily cycle low.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

The U.S. Dollar Outperforms Gold, Silver and the HUI so far in 2013 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Bob_Kirtley

The chart below paints a sorry picture for precious bugs with the US dollar just managing to stay in positive territory as losses mount for gold, silver and the mining sector. In broad terms the US Dollar is up 2%, Gold is down 22%, Silver is down 32% and the miners represented here by the HUI are down 45%. All stomach churning stuff for perma bulls as the mining sector now has to generate gains of around 100% in order to get back to where they were at the start of the year. This is not impossible but it will take a monumental effort to achieve such a recovery.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Mining Stocks with the Grade to Survive the Silver Price Downturn / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2013

By: The_Gold_Report

It's one thing for a silver producer to make a profit at $28/oz and quite another to do the same at $20/oz, declares Chris Lichtenheldt, senior mining analyst at Dundee Capital Markets. In this interview with The Gold Report, Lichtenheldt examines eight silver companies, detailing which ones will be rewarded for high-grade assets and which ones punished for high costs. And he explains why one of his favorites is a silver company that doesn't actually produce silver.

The Gold Report: Silver seems to have stabilized at $20/ounce ($20/oz). Is this significant? If this support holds, can we expect upward movement?

Monday, August 12, 2013

Gold Daily and Silver Slouching Through August Delivery / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Jesse

There was intraday commentary on the gold inventory situation and Bullion Heading East here.

I doubt that we are in a normal market correction or even a bear market in the precious metals. Instead what we are seeing is tied intimately with the inability to repatriate Germany's sovereign gold from its custodial holders, without a seven year wait.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Where Silver Prices Are Heading / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Money_Morning

Silver prices today continue to wander aimlessly around the $20-an-ounce level as the white metal is buffeted by many of the same factors restraining the gold price. This drifting comes after a dramatic drop of 35% in the first half 2013.

As with gold, much of the drop is due to fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin "tapering" purchases of bonds from its current $85 billion-a-month level. If this comes to pass, the financial markets currently believe this will reduce excess liquidity and therefore any possible inflationary fires.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Is Plunging U.S. Dollar Bullish or Bearish News for Gold Price? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Without a doubt, the recent weeks were tough for the U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar fell as investors weighed when the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of bond purchases that had contributed to weakening the greenback. It also dropped against all its major counterparts after a government report last week showed American employers hired fewer workers in July than economists had predicted. Another bearish factor which weakened the dollar was strong data from China that suggested economic optimism.

Monday, August 12, 2013

Gold and Silver What If ? : Circa 2013 / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013

By: Rambus_Chartology

In this Weekend Report I would like to show you a “WHAT IF” scenario that few are seeing at this time. There are two major camps in the precious metals complex, the bulls and the bears. The bulls are looking at this most recent low as THE BOTTOM and a new bull market is being born. They have been crushed all the way down from last falls high on the HUI calling every small bottom THE bottom. On the other hand you have the bears that either got out or have been riding this almost one year decline, short the precious metals complex, and looking for more blood to the downside, to that all important 2008 crash low around the 150 area on the HUI. I have been in the bear camp since the first of December of 2012 until last week. Even at the beginning of last week I was still looking for lower prices for the precious metals complex. If you have been trading long enough you know the markets can change on a dime and when you start to see important trendlines begin to fail that changes everything no matter how bullish or bearish one may be.

Sunday, August 11, 2013

Syrian Gas Triangle And Its Risk-Prone Future / Commodities / Natural Gas

By: Andrew_McKillop

GAS DIPLOMACY
Reuters reported from Doha, Qatar, 8 August that Saudi Arabia has offered Russia economic incentives including a $15 billion arms-buying deal and a pledge not to challenge Russian gas sales in Europe, if Moscow scales back or abandons support for Syrian President Bashr al-Assad. The proposed deal was reportedly set out by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan in a four-hour meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week.

Saturday, August 10, 2013

Why Crude Oil Price Is Poised for a Sharp Correction / Commodities / Crude Oil

By: DailyWealth

If you hold any bets on crude oil rising, we encourage you to dump them. A correction is headed our way.

A simple boating concept explains why...

Picture a boat... the kind you'd take on the ocean for a fishing trip. Now picture the Dallas Cowboys football team on the boat. If all 53 players are evenly spaced, things are fine. But if all 53 players move to one side of the boat, bad things happen. The boat tips over until lots of Cowboys are shark food.