Analysis Topic: Commodity Markets - Metals, Softs & Oils
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.Wednesday, October 25, 2017
The 5 Countries That Could Push Oil Prices Up / Commodities / Crude Oil
Oil prices appear to be stuck in the $50s per barrel, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t serious supply risks to the market.
An unexpected disruption could occur at any moment, as has happened in the past, leading to a sudden and sharp jump in prices. Geopolitical tension has been largely irrelevant since the collapse of oil prices in 2014, but it’s making a return now that cracks have emerged in some key oil-producing nations. The threat of an outage will carry more weight as the oil market tightens.
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Wednesday, October 25, 2017
2017 Was The Year Of Gold's Consolidation, So What Will 2018 Present? / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
One of the most frustrating charts to trade during 2017 has been almost any chart in the metals complex. In fact, if you speak to most metals investors, you would almost think that they have incurred a huge loss in 2017.
But, that is far from the truth. In fact, since we caught the low around 107 in the GLD at the end of 2016, we have seen it rally almost 20% off those lows when it struck its 2017 high back in early September. As I write this article, we are still 13% off those lows.
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Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Silver Is Underperforming Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts silver and discusses its relationship with gold. Like gold, silver now appears to be completing an intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top within a much larger and very bullish Head-and-Shoulders bottom pattern. Both these Head-and-Shoulders tops are related to the Head-and-Shoulders bottom completing in the dollar index, that we look at in the parallel Gold Market update.
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Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Strange Things Happening In The Paper Gold Market / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Back in September the hedge funds that speculate with gold futures contracts got extremely bullish, which – since speculators are usually wrong when they’re overexcited – was a signal that gold would be going down for a while. It did:
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Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Vanadium: The Metal We Can’t Do Without And Don’t Produce / Commodities / Metals & Mining
From swords to jet engines
One of the world’s least known metals is also of great importance, and likely to become more so as renewable energies catch up with and possibly eclipse fossil fuels. Yet vanadium’s primary use as a steel alloy is set to keep prices buoyant and North American explorers racing to find a domestic source of the metal that was once used to make swords so strong and sharp the mere sight of them struck fear into the hearts of their enemies.
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Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Gold Is Better Store of Value Than Bitcoin – Goldman Sachs / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
– Gold is better store of value than bitcoin – Goldman Sachs report
– Gold will continue to perform well thanks to uncertainty and wealth demand
– Bitcoin’s volatility continues to impact its role as money
– Gold up 12% in 2017, bitcoin over 600%
– BTC is six times more volatile than gold – see chart
– Gold’s history and physical property shows it meets requirements as a medium of exchange and store of value
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Gold Miners Could Be Setting Up For A Big Hit Into Year End / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
As I read through the blogs and public articles on miners and the GDX, it has become quite evident that many have now turned either bearish or completely indifferent to this complex. In fact, it seems as though the number of hits being seen in the Seeking Alpha metals section has dropped dramatically over the last year.
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Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Gold Price Under $1000 Is A Very Real Possibility / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
After gold peaked in January 1980 at $850.00 per ounce, it dropped in price by two-thirds (66%) over the next five years. The low in February 1985 was $284.00 per ounce.
At that point it began a strong move upwards over a three-year span peaking at just under $500.00 ($499.75) per ounce in December 1987. That translates to an increase of seventy-six percent.
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Tuesday, October 24, 2017
US Dollar Getting Ready to Rally Implications for Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the outlook for the U.S. dollar and its implications for gold.The dollar is getting ready for a sizable rally, and that means that gold and silver are going to be knocked back again. Longer term however, the outlook for the Precious Metals could scarcely be better, as we will see.
In last weekend's update it was pointed out that gold's gap breakout from its steep downtrend shown on its latest 6-month chart below was probably false and that it was expected to drop back as the dollar advanced, which it duly did last week. Bearing in mind that the dollar has about completed its Head-and-Shoulders bottom, it is now clear that a parallel Head-and-Shoulders top is completing in gold as shown on the chart. This chart projects a breakdown beneath the nearby support level to be followed by a drop targeting the quite strong support in the $1200–$1215 area.
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Monday, October 23, 2017
Debt-Driven Consumer Economy Breaking Down / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in metals and commodity markets and even authored a book in 2006 titled Gold Trading Bootcamp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.
He is a highly sought-after presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a regular guest on financial shows throughout the world, and it's good to have him back here on the Money Metals Podcast.
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Monday, October 23, 2017
This Super Metal Is Set To Soar By 300% / Commodities / Graphene
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Sunday, October 22, 2017
Time for Caution in Gold Miners / Commodities / Gold and Silver Stocks 2017
Last week we noted the likely negative impact of a sustained rebound in the US Dollar on Gold. Recent weakness in precious metals has not been much of a surprise considering the sector’s relative weakness months ago amid a weak US Dollar. While the greenback has bottomed, it has yet to push above resistance at 94. Nevertheless, Gold and in particular the gold stocks are threatening more losses even before a push higher in the greenback. It is time to be defensive and cautious.
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Saturday, October 21, 2017
Silver Stocks Comatose / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
The silver miners’ stocks have mostly drifted sideways this year, looking vexingly comatose. Such dull price action repels speculators and investors, so they’ve largely abandoned this lackluster sector. That weak trader participation has led to silver stocks’ responsiveness to silver price moves decaying. What can shock silver stocks out of their zombified stupor? And how soon is such an awakening catalyst likely?
Silver stocks’ flatlined behavior so far in 2017 is surprising and odd. Silver-stock prices are ultimately driven by silver-mining profits, which are overwhelmingly driven by prevailing silver price levels. Silver in turn is slaved to gold’s fortunes, the yellow metal is the white metal’s dominant primary driver. With gold faring quite well this year despite the euphoric record stock markets, silver and its miners’ stocks should be shining.
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Friday, October 20, 2017
Gold Up 74% Since Last Stock Market Peak 10 Years Ago / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
– 10 year anniversary of pre-Global Financial Crisis market peak in S&P 500 on October 9th
– Gold up 74% since the last market peak a decade ago; 11% pa in USD, 9.4% pa in EUR and 12.4% pa in GBP
– Precious metal has climbed $736/oz on Oct 9th 2007 to $1278.75 ten-years later
– S&P 500’s 102% climb is thanks to asset-pumping policies by central banks, rather than value
– Gold’s performance is slowly forcing mainstream to re-consider gold
– “Notion of gold as a hedge against serious risk aversion is true… ” – Bloomberg analyst
Friday, October 20, 2017
Chinese Economy and Gold / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
In the 2015 October edition of the Market Overview, we analyzed the impact of the Chinese slowdown, as well as the stock market crash and the devaluation of yuan, on the gold market. Two years later, it is worth providing investors with an update about the second biggest economy in the world, especially since the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China will be held in October.
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Thursday, October 19, 2017
How Gold Bullion Protects From Conflict And War / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
– Gold and silver’s historical role in conflict shaped the world today and the modern financial system
– Gold played an important function in the great conflicts up to and throughout the 20th century
– Gold and the effective use of bullion played a crucial role in the outcome of the American Civil War
– Gold was an important economic agent in both World Wars, conferring a huge advantage on the allies
– In a world beset with risks of war both in the Middle East and with North Korea, Russia and China … gold will protect
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Gold Is In A Dangerous Spot / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Of late, I have seen many articles postulating what moves gold up or down. We have heard all the old reasons being put forth from GDP, to a hedge against market volatility to interest rates, to the US Dollar, and many more. Unfortunately, market history simply does not support these reasons as a consistent driver of gold, as I have detailed in many past articles:
Sentiment Speaks: Time To Buy Gold To Prepare For A Stock Market Crash?
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Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Brexit UK Vulnerable As Gold Bar Exports Distort UK Trade Figures / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
– Brexit UK vulnerable as gold bar exports distort UK trade figures
– Britain’s gold exports worth more than any other physical export
– Gold accounted for more than one in ten pounds of UK exports in July 2017
– UK’s stock of wealth has collapsed from a surplus of £469bn to a net deficit of £22bn – ONS error
– Brexiteers argue majority of trade is outside EU, this is due to large London gold exports
– Single gold bar (London Good Delivery) is, at today’s prices, worth just over £400,000
– “There are few things you’ll ever touch which pack so much weight into such a small size”
– UK’s economic vulnerability means safe haven gold essential protection
Wednesday, October 18, 2017
Palladium and Rhodium Are on Fire, Is Platinum Next? / Commodities / Platinum
By Clint Siegner : Platinum was once the most precious of metals. For decades, it traded at a premium to gold. The other platinum group metals – palladium and rhodium – barely registered on investors’ radar screens.Platinum lost its crown to gold in 2015. It was overtaken by the other Platinum Group metals (PGM) metals in recent weeks.
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
Comfortably Numb: Surviving the Assault on Silver / Commodities / Gold and Silver 2017
Precious metals expert Michael Ballanger discusses the current state of the precious metals markets. In the late 1960s and most of the 1970s, an English rock band named Pink Floyd dominated the world of progressive and psychedelic music with such memorable albums as "Dark Side of the Moon," "Wish You Were Here," and "The Wall." One of their greatest hits was a song entitled "Comfortably Numb" and as I was listening to it the other night, the refrain in the middle of the song—"Gotta keep it going through the show; c'mon it's time to go"—reminded me of the current state of the precious metals markets in the sense that the bullion bank criminals really are doing their utmost to "keep it (the price caps and interventions) going through the show". That silver investors have been rendered "comfortably numb" by way of serial price assaults is a testimonial to the sentiment out there for silver equities, coins, and the like. In case you hadn't noticed, sentiment for gold and particularly silver is outright putrid.
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