Category: Stock Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Stock Market Glass Ceiling Bullish or Bearish? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
We have all heard of the proverbial “glass ceiling” in the business world where one attains a certain level of achievement and is unable to advance any further.
Well, the same thing happens to share values from time-to-time. They reach a certain price level, and no matter how hard they try, they are simply unable to shatter the glass ceiling overhead.
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Monday, January 23, 2012
Stock Market Rotation to Growth Begins / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
In early January, the bear market correction ended. In response, money began to flow out of defensive assets such as bonds and the US dollar and move back into growth (Chart 1). By mid-January, equities were now outperforming fixed income for a first time since July.
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Monday, January 23, 2012
Stock Market Reversal is Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Intermediate uptrend still intact, but short-term top... or more, is now very close.
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Monday, January 23, 2012
Stocks Bull Market Continues / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The US rally extends to three up weeks in a row. While volatility has virtually disappeared this new year the market continues to work its way higher. For the week the SPX/DOW were +2.20%, and the NDX/NAZ were +2.75%. Foreign markets also joined in, with Asia and Europe both +3.10%, as was the DJ World index. Economic reports for the week were biased to the upside: 8 to 5. On the downtick: the PPI, housing starts, building permits, the Philly FED and the M1-multiplier. On the uptick: the NY FED, industrial production, capacity utilization, existing homes sales, the NAHB, the monetary base, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims improved. Next week, the FED meets tuesday and wednesday, then Leading indicators and Q4 GDP. Best to your week!
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Monday, January 23, 2012
Stock Market Trend and Geomagnetism / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
A correlation between stock market performance and geomagnetism is captured in a paper here by Krivelyova and Robotti. That aside, it is a rarely used discipline in trading, and if you search Marketwatch, Bloomberg and CNBC for its reference, you will come away empty handed. My latest findings are about to demonstrate its importance.
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Saturday, January 21, 2012
Stocks Are Not Dead / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Proclamations like The Death of Equities usually arrive near the point of maximum pessimism, and when everyone is most bearish it is usually time to take a contrarian stance and buy. However, today - less than 4-years into a historic deleveraging phase* - calls that equities are dead are likely to prove premature. Equities are not dead in the sense that they are poised to rally strongly from a contrarian perspective. Rather, equities are simply dying
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Saturday, January 21, 2012
Stock Market Squeaks Into the Green / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short. The S&P 500 spent the day wallowing in shallow red ink, but a rally at the close nudged the index into the positive territory for a fractional gain of 0.07%. The week tells a better story, with a gain of 2.04%. Thus far, of the thirteen S&P 500 market days in 2012, eleven have been advances, athough three of them were in the 0.02% to 0.07% range. The index has a year-to-date gain of 4.59%. It is 3.54% below its interim high at the end of April 2011.
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Saturday, January 21, 2012
Stock Market Edging Higher...Resistance Right Here ...VIX Low / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The market is losing its volatility as the VIX drops, and that's not a bad thing. Nice and smooth is how the market is now trading. No major swings. No intense whipsaw. That's a welcome reality for all traders. The worst of times come when the market just flip flops all over the place, haphazardly, without much rhyme or reason. When the VIX starts soaring, it's lights out for this market in terms of performance. It becomes almost impossible to play. Many hundreds of points up and down in a single day on the Dow. With the VIX near 20, we don't have to fear the market. We know things will be tight, and thus, trading becomes more enjoyable. A strong market helps bring the VIX down, and that's why it's so low, although the market has not made the big breakout to this point. It has moved up decently, but yet to make the big one a reality. More on that later.
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Saturday, January 21, 2012
Stock Market Coming Off A High / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
“There were two conflicting cultures. One rewarded professionalism, honesty, and entrepreneurship. This culture recognized that without individual investors, the markets could not work. The other culture was driven by conflicts of interest, self-dealing, and hype. It put Wall Street’s short-term interest over investor interests. This culture, regrettably, often overshadowed the other.” Take on the Street: What Wall Street and Corporate America Don’t Want You to Know (2002) Former Chairman of the SEC, Arthur Levitt, pg 7
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Thursday, January 19, 2012
Why The Stock Market Hangs In There... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The stock market has fooled many non-believers over the past year or so. Not that the market has done so well, because it hasn't. Dead flat on the S&P 500 last year as it opened and closed at 1257. Given the circumstances that surrounded the global markets in 2011, it is nothing short of a miracle that we ended up 100% flat for the year. I called it the year of the bull for obvious reasons. Let's be honest, if the market had been down 15-20% last year, would you have been shocked by it all? I doubt it. You may have said something like, thankfully, it wasn't worse than that. Many bears, hard and steady bears at that, just couldn't understand what it was that kept this market together. When looking back, and looking at the moment, the reasons aren't that difficult to understand. Most people are not satisfied with not making money during the course of a calendar year. They want to be mostly fully invested. They have to think about retirement, so it's hard not be in the game. Understanding that helps you grasp things a bit better.
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Will The U.S. Stock Market Decouple From Europe? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The term decouple is often used on Wall Street to explain something that is difficult to wrap your arms around. In late 2007/early 2008 we were told the emerging markets would decouple from the mortgage mess based in the United States. In the video below, we explore:
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Wednesday, January 18, 2012
How To Buy Stocks After Today’s Advance / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Should we chase the markets here?
OR
Should we do what has delivered us a 79% return in 3 1/2 years which is ALLOW STOCKS TO COME TO US?
After all, we’ve all seen for the better part of 2011 that chasing buses has been hazardous to ones health now hasn’t it. This is especially true for those who are not in control of their emotions and are of an impulsive nature.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Dow Stock Market Index History: Where Are We Now? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Courtesy of Doug Short. Advisor Perspectives welcomes guest contributions. The views presented here do not necessarily represent those of Advisor Perspectives.
Following on from my overall summary chart of 110 years of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) published here last week, further detailed analysis serves to demonstrate that volatility has been reliably consistent for the past 110 years, and now is no different.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
U.S. Dollar, Weak Corporate Earnings Indicate Stock Market Top is Near / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Earnings season is now upon us and so far the only major earnings component that has been released is the J.P. Morgan earnings report that came in Friday before the market opened. After the report was digested by the marketplace, prices fell dramatically.
While the charlatans in Washington try to sell the American public into believing that the U.S economy is starting to firm up, the underlying truth is that the recovery has been relatively week. If it were not for the massive liquidity injections provided by the Federal Reserve through multiple quantitative easing adjustments, risk assets would likely be priced significantly lower.
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Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Stock Market Reversal is Due / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected, there will be another steep and prolonged decline into 2014.
SPX: Intermediate trend - Intermediate uptrend still intact, but short-term top... or more, is now very close.
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Saturday, January 14, 2012
Stock Market Bull is Back / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
Another quiet and positive week, technically, in the US markets. For the third week in a row the market traded in a narrow range: 20 points, 20 points and 22 points this week. The last two weeks have been positive with new uptrends highs. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 0.70%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.05%. Foreign markets had a better week. Asian markets rose 2.4%, European markets rose 1.3% and the DJ World index rose 1.1%. Economic reports had a negative bias, with two down for every one up. On the uptick: consumer credit, import prices, consumer sentiment and the monetary base. On the downtick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, export prices, the WLEI, and both weekly jobless claims plus the twin deficits worsened. Overall, January has started off with a good positive bias. Next week, we’ll be watching the CPI/PPI, Industrial production and Building permits. Best to your week!
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Saturday, January 14, 2012
Friday The 13th Stock Market Scare / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
As we approach a long weekend, I was leaning bullish for an extension of the rally into next week which is also options expiration. That changed this am as we had euro concerns causing a jump in the dollar and bonds and corresponding weakness in stocks and commodities. With the market near highs, profit taking is also a consideration.
The dollar moved first, bonds are catching up right now (in the short term).
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Friday, January 13, 2012
Anticipating the Stock Market Golden Cross / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
I had a neighbor who set his sprinkler system to go on every Wednesday around 5 a.m., about the same time I am about to reach his yard on my jog. After a few weeks of getting my ankles wet, I started to cross the street before I reached his property.Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, January 12, 2012
How Bond yields and Money Supply influence Stock Prices / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
What is a Bond? A bond is a form of debt like a loan or IOUs. A Corporation like AIG may raise fund through the sale of bonds, a city may sell bonds to build a bridge or the Federal Government may issue bonds to finance spiraling debts. All of these entities need money to operate and they do so by issuing bonds.
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Thursday, January 12, 2012
Stock Market Solid Action At Key Resistance.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
The bears will make a strong argument that the consolidation is more like churning at key resistance. The bulls will tell you that the market is holding very well at the breakout point, although the S&P 500 is still thirty points away, but needs to clear the old highs at 1292 to get things rolling. If they can do that, then they can challenge the July-high trend line that comes down around S&P 500 1318/1320. I have to form an opinion, of course, about how I see things, and I have to say, it looks more favorable than not. I wouldn't bet the farm, or even a bedroom, on it, but the bulls look to be gaining more and more control on the situation.
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