Category: Stock Markets 2012
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Sunday, August 19, 2012
Powerful Stock Market Bulls, Push Market to Near Overbought / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
The market has shifted in the past four weeks, or so, from trying to break down to actually breaking out on the Nasdaq, and it's getting very close to doing so on the S&P 500, which is a necessary confirmation for the bigger picture. The Nasdaq, as well as the rest of the key index charts, was testing time, and again, a the 200-day exponential moving averages. Four consecutive tries in a very short period of time. Each test down looked nastier than the last one with the bears feeling assured that the breakdown was finally upon us all. We saw the bears give it up all four times, with the bulls hanging in right at the breakdown, and following through with a move up of their own. Great to see repeated failures, if you're a bull, because eventually the bears ran out of steam after so many efforts, which allowed the current move up we're experiencing now.
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Saturday, August 18, 2012
Stock Market Calm Before a Storm? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Sy_Harding
Global stock markets have been enjoying a remarkable summer rally since June, remarkable for several reasons.
For one thing, the rally has been much more substantial than typical summer rallies, which are usually brief time-wise, and average about a 5% gain by the S&P 500.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Sentiment Measure Shows No Fear of Major U.S. Stock Decline / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: EWI
The stock market's recent rally has seemed to ignore Europe's debt crisis and the weak U.S. economy, and in turn commentators have dusted off an old Wall Street phrase: wall of worry.
Friday, August 17, 2012
Why Bill Gross is Wrong About Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: money_morning
Keith Fitz-Gerald writes:
I've gotten quite a few great questions from readers lately so I thought we'd take a quick peek into the mail bag today.
As always, I love answering questions from the Money Morning family so please feel free to keep the conversation going by sending your questions to: keith@moneymorning.com
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Friday, August 17, 2012
Will Bernanke Save the Stock Markets? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Casey_Research
Vedran Vuk, Casey Research - How far is the Fed from reaching the bottom of its ammunition box?
Well, both Mario Draghi and Ben Bernanke said no to yet more monetary stimulus last week.
Wall Street unsurprisingly was disappointed.
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Friday, August 17, 2012
Disconnected Stock Markets Confound Investors / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: John_Browne
The current environment for investors is perhaps one of the most confusing that many have ever encountered. Unpredictable markets now appear to take no clue whatsoever from underlying economic data, and maxims long cherished by traditional money managers are being abandoned in favor of seemingly illogical choices. We are in a world in which apparently intelligent investors are willing to pay a premium for 10 year Treasury bonds that are almost certain to lose real value if held to maturity. While such an environment is enough to encourage many to cash out completely, we believe that investors should remain focused on the fundamentals, even if fewer others have the conviction to do so.Read full article... Read full article...
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Stock Market Kiss of Death, Get Out the Popcorn, The Show is About to Begin / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
Friends, you are looking at the game changer for the world markets. There are several reasons why.
The first is that this tolls the death knell for the bond carry trade that has sustained the banks for so long. In essence, they could borrow from the Fed at .25% and invest in notes and bonds at 1.8% (notes) to 2.8% (bonds) and profit from the “carry” or spread. Naturally, as notes yielded less and less, banks switched to bonds for the higher yield.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Stock Market “E” Wave to Rally Market to Bull Cycle Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: David_Banister
In recent updates I have been projecting a series of ABCDE waves to take the Bull market to post March 2009 highs in the 1425-1445 ranges. The recent pullback was expected as what I was calling a “D wave” pullback, with an E wave to come. These final 5th waves or E waves can be extension waves or relatively benign, hence causing difficulty in forecasting the upper ranges.
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Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Stock Market Complacency Hits 5 Year High, Calm Before the Storm / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Anthony_Cherniawski
VIX declined within .01 of the March 16 low on an intraday basis. Tomorrow is the next Pivot Date for the VIX and it is probable that the VIX may gap up at the open. The VIX/SPX futures are in agreement. This has been quite a ride and changes the landscape for the decline in equities that has already begun.
Tuesday, August 14, 2012
Stock Market Holding Well..... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
The market is doing its Houdini act as it hides from the fundamental story out there globally. It seems to have tricks up its sleeves as it works its way around the mess that's out there no matter where you look save for a few spots on the map. Major headaches abound, yet the market, even if it tries to sell off, has a tough time doing so. It tried to today, but the bears couldn't really muster enough energy once they had the S&P 500 just below 1400. The bulls came in and kept the selling at a minimum. Some red arrows on the S&P 500 and Dow, but they were very small losses, while the Nasdaq 100 flashed green by a point.
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Monday, August 13, 2012
Stock Market Bulls Still In Control, But Time Is Running Out / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Toby_Connor
In last week's article "Three Weeks Left" I outlined a brief synopsis of what I was expecting based on how the daily cycles were unfolding. So far markets are playing out pretty much as anticipated.
This week I'm going to go a bit more in depth and tie cycle's analysis with the upcoming fundamental calendar, namely the next two FOMC and Jackson Hole meetings.
Monday, August 13, 2012
Stock Market Top Forming? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andre_Gratian
Current Position of the Market
SPX: Very Long-term trend - The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend - SPX is in a limited intermediate uptrend which is estimated to end in the first week of August.
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Saturday, August 11, 2012
VIX Low...News Quiet... Stock Market Lateral....Fed Still protecting.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
I have a good time listening to debates. It's always fun to hear the emotion pour out of people as they express their opinions on the stock market. I guess the prevailing view is, it's only a matter of time before this market is doomed to crash out. I wonder about that. Fundamentally I have no argument with that logic. After all, Europe stinks. Our economy is not as bad, but it stinks as well. Debt and foreclosures are everywhere. More and more folks are losing jobs. Our manufacturing sector is in contraction and pointing to recession.
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Friday, August 10, 2012
Stock Market 3-Year Rally Doesn't Have to End This Way - Or Does It? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: EWI
Is it wise to forecast financial markets based on what central bankers say?
Look no further than a chart of long-term stock market prices for the answer: No major trend change ever followed any of those announcements.
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Thursday, August 09, 2012
Stock Market Quiet Day... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
That's not bad when you look back on it as those 60-minute short-term charts are unwinding nicely for the bulls without any real move down in price. Normally, that's a good thing as price is not being confirmed by declining oscillators. If the oscillators get back to neutral, or oversold, and there wasn't much erosion in price, another move higher is likely to ensue. So far so good, but there's still a chance for lower prices, and if that occurs, we will get near ,or at oversold, on those 60-minute charts, which would offer up more buying opportunities. There hasn't been much news globally of any significance the past few days, and it seems the quieter it is the more the market likes things these days.
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Tuesday, August 07, 2012
Stock Market Sorry Folks, Still Nothing from Nothing...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
And who knows how long it'll keep on keeping on. Day after day, week after week, and month after month, now in month number eight, the market plays see-saw and whipsaw with our emotions. So many times you'd bet hard that we're about to break down, only to see those 200-day exponential moving averages catch us, when it looks like they can't. Other times, like the past few days, breakout seems inevitable. Inevitably it doesn't. We hit Nasdaq 100 3000, the bottom of the massive gap down with the top at 3025, only to see the bulls fail as we pulled back late in the day. No energy available for the bulls to make the breakout which mirrored the bears at those 200's. Simply no energy, and thus, failure.
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Monday, August 06, 2012
Many Signs of Stock Market Intermediate Top Forming / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Andre_Gratian
Current position of the market
SPX: Very Long-term trend – The very-long-term cycles are down and, if they make their lows when expected (after this bull market is over) there will be another steep and prolonged decline into late 2014. It is probable, however, that the steep correction of 2007-2009 will have curtailed the full downward pressure potential of the 120-yr cycle.
SPX: Intermediate trend – SPX is in a limited intermediate uptrend which is estimated to end in the first week of August.
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Monday, August 06, 2012
Stock Market Bulls Have Three Weeks Left! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Toby_Connor
3 weeks, that's how long the bulls have left before stocks roll over and begin the next intermediate degree decline. That being said, the next 2-3 weeks should yield some very healthy gains in virtually all asset classes. Why is that you wonder? Well, it's because the dollar has begun moving down into an intermediate degree correction which will, in the next few weeks, fuel the 'risk-on' trade.
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Saturday, August 04, 2012
Jobs Offset The ECB... Market Flat For The Week...... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: Jack_Steiman
It was a very interesting week in many respects. There were at least three different times when it felt like a bear market and a bull market. The whipsaw continued with many of the usual head fakes for both the bulls and the bears. The action early on in the week was nasty with a strong down side bias. After getting through many huge economic reports and events that shot the market all over the place, the market finished strong, allowing for a flat week of overall action. We had the ISM Manufacturing Rport come on Wednesday, the same day we heard from Mr. Bernanke. The ISM Report disappointed as it showed our country to be slightly in the red regarding recession. The 49.8 reading showed continued economic contraction. The number was supposed to show slight growth. A bad start.
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Saturday, August 04, 2012
Stock Market Surge Higher - "The Stage is Being Set / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012
By: EWI
Elliott Wave International has long observed that external events do not alter the dominant trend of financial markets -- not even major events like wars, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, political assassinations or any other news that makes headlines.
Now, it is true that news can sometimes have a near-term effect on market prices.
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