Category: Stock Markets 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Monday, August 30, 2010
M&A Flurry Can’t Deflect Attention From Dire Market Dataflow / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Late on Friday, equity markets set up for a relief rally despite bellwether tech giant Intel guiding down its earnings forecast (a development which I for one, thought was mightily disturbing). The trigger for the rally came from the speech of Ben Bernanke in Jackson Hole. He remarked that the Fed stood ready to boost economic growth and had the tools to do so, including increasing the purchase of long-term assets. So although Bernanke tilled no new ground at Jackson Hole in Wyoming, re-launching QE remains an option this Autumn as deflation risks intensify. Additionally over the weekend, the Bank of Japan expanded credit support for banks. These are indications that central banks are willing to support the fragile economic development.
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Monday, August 30, 2010
Russell-2000 Leads Stock Market Relief Rally... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The major indexes followed the Russell-2000 as it rallied strongly after a retest lower...
Recommendation: Take no action.
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Monday, August 30, 2010
Fear is Driving the Markets, But Don't Let it Drive You / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Jon D. Markman writes: Pessimism increased again among investors last week, as a slew of economic data stoked fears of a double-dip recession.
Indeed, housing and unemployment continue to weigh on the U.S. economy. But don't panic. Remember that the prospects for a full economic recovery are much better outside the United States, and that it's often good to be greedy when others are fearful.
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Sunday, August 29, 2010
Stock Market May be Ready to Break Out of its Short-term Downtrend / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles are down and if they make their lows when expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until about 2014-2015.
SPX: Intermediate trend.The index made an intermediate top at 1220 and is now in an intermediate downtrend which should come to an end in October 2010.
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Sunday, August 29, 2010
Stock Market S&P 950, Not so Fast / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The better than expected GDP numbers threw a slight monkey wrench in the trading plan (for you traders out there). I was expecting a gap down open that would break through the 1040 pivot. The plan was to buy into that gap with a stop under the morning intraday low. The market did break slightly below 1040 (1039.70) so in theory if one was quick they could have jumped in right there. I doubt anyone was that quick though so I suspect almost no one caught the exact low. Perfect timing isn’t critical though if this is a daily cycle bottom, as we should have at least 2 to 3 weeks of upside ahead of us. I’m assuming the market doesn’t drop back down to test the lows on next Friday’s jobs report.
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Stocks Secular Bull and Bear Markets and the Dark Side of Budget Deficits / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Secular Bull and Bear Markets
It's Not the (Stupid) Economy
The Consequences of a Credit Crisis
The Dark Side of Deficits
In the pre-crisis days, I used to write about things like P/E ratios, secular bull and bear markets, valuations, and all of the things we used to think about in the Old Normal. But what about those topics as we begin our trip through the New Normal? It's time to reconvene class and think through what might change and what will remain the same. I think this will be a fun read - and let me tip my hand. I come out on the side of a new secular bull that gets us back to trend - but not just yet. The New Normal has to have its turn first. (Note: this will print out longer than usual, as there are a lot of charts.)
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Stock Market Indices Close Out Week with Strong Snapback Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices had a very strong snapback session to close out the week on apparent short-covering and bargain hunting.
In the morning they opened firm, but then rolled over hard on negative economic news, taking the Nasdaq 100 under 1750 and the S&P 500 under 1045, down near the key 1040 area that was reached last Wednesday. When the NDX made new lows and the SPX failed to confirm and held the earlier support low, that created a positive divergence.
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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Stock Market Reverses After Intel Warns....Classic.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Intel Corporation (INTC) has been the source of many big reversals in the stock market over its career on Wall Street. Sometimes it has set the top of the market and at other times it has set the bottom, at least for the short-term. Today we saw it put in the short-term bottom.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Why the Stock Market Weekly Charts Work / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Many traders get so involved with the market on a daily or even an intraday basis, that they somehow lose out on the bigger picture. Weekly charts are enormously helpful in giving clues to the future direction of the market.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Stock Markets Rise On Higher Than Expected U.S. GDP Q2 Growth / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Stocks Rise On Higher Than Expected US GDPUS stocks were up Friday, sending the Dow Jones back above the 10000 level after numbers for US GDP Q2 economic growth were slightly above analysts expectations. The Dow climbed 44 points, or 0.4 percent, to 10030 on the news. The Dow closed below the psychologically important 10000 mark on Thursday for the first time since early July, due in part to jitters ahead of Friday morning’s report on gross domestic product.
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Friday, August 27, 2010
Stock Market Bulls Rally and Bears Pounce... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The major indexes rally attempt is shut down by pessimistic bears...
Recommendation: Take no action.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Stock Market Bulls Weigh In... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
European markets and Asian markets slide but bulls buy after gap down open...
Recommendation: Take no action.
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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Stock Market S&P 1050 Holds For Now.... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Not great, but if the bulls want to exhale now is the time to do so. If this level is lost on a closing basis it's not good, especially if it's lost with some force behind it. We certainly did lose it intra-day, but the market started to get oversold, and thus the usual rally ensued. Not a great rally. Nothing earth shattering and nothing to hang your longer-term bullishness on, but at least the bulls can say they held the line in the sand on the S&P 500 for one more day.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Recession Double Dippers In The Ascendancy / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
US stocks declined Tuesday, sending the S&P 500 Index to a seven-week low, as a record plunge in home sales cast further doubt on the viability of the economic recovery as the battle between “moderators” and “double dippers” is currently being won hands down by the latter. Existing US home sales where a real horror show – resales dropped a record 27.2 percent–nearly twice as much as analysts had expected–to an annual rate of $3.83 m in July, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Meanwhile, inventories rose to 12.5 months from 8.9 months in June, pressuring already depressed home prices. Inventories are at their highest level in more than a decade.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Tuesdays Ugly Stock Market Trading, S&P Lowers Irelands Credit Rating / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
European markets slide significantly as worries over debt continue to be a concern...
Recommendation: Take no action.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Stock Market Underlying Support Fades / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Following the August 18 Market Minute titled "S&P participation remains weak", underlying support for the S&P 500 has deteriorated during the last few days. On August 18, the percentage number of advancing stocks within the broad-based index had fallen to 50%. In contrast, at the peak of the bull advance in April, that percentage number was over 75%.
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010
A Squeeze on the NYSE 'New Highs'? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Conditions are getting close to a decision point on the New York Stock Exchange's daily New Highs.
On June 29th, the New Highs had hit a low and started an ascent that lasted until August 2nd. when they peaked and started trending down.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Stock Market Technically Troubling Tuesday / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
We finally blew our levels!
Sadly, it’s time to flip bearish until we can retake our watch levels at Dow 10,200, S&P 1,070, Nas 2,200, NYSE 6,800, and Russell 635. If we can’t retake at least 2 of them today, we may be seeing 2.5% drops back to Dow 9,945, S&P 1,043, Nas 2,145, NYSE 6,630 and Russell 619. Since the Russell already blew 619 we have to consider the possibility of even a test of our 5% lines at Dow 9,690, S&P 1,016, Nas 2,090, NYSE 6,460, and Russell 603.
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
CRH Profit Warning Spooks Building Materials Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The early doors M&A optimism faded Monday into the US close with the S&P 500 (-0.40 percent) closing at the lows for the session and at 5-week lows as fresh concerns the economy may return to recession overshadowed speculation takeovers will accelerate. Caterpillar and Cisco Systems both lost at least 2.5 percent to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower. Hewlett- Packard shed 2 percent after offering to buy 3Par Inc., sending the data-centre software company’s shares up 45 percent while Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan climbed for a sixth day on speculation the fertilizer maker will get a higher takeover bid.
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Stock Market Mergers and Aquisions Buzz Fades... / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The optimism that powered pre-market trading faded as the bulls can't sustain any sort of momentum...
Recommendation: Sell shares of DIA, QQQQ, and SPY at market fifteen minutes after the open. This will leave us in cash but we believe that equities will bounce due to their large gap down open.
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