Category: Stock Markets 2010
The analysis published under this category are as follows.Tuesday, March 02, 2010
Benefit of the Doubt Must Go to the Stock Market Bulls / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
A quick look at a chart of the SPX shows that price has essentially gone nowhere since October. Essentially there is no trend at this time and there hasn't been since October. Another leg down from a lower high would create a 6.5 month head and shoulders topping pattern.
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Monday, March 01, 2010
More On Company Insiders Selling Stocks / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This week's sentiment report highlighted company insiders and the fact that they have stepped up their selling. Some may question the wisdom of following company insiders. After all, they were buying at the October, 2007 top and have been selling for the past 8 months.
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Stock Market Oscillating Between Support and Resistance Before Choosing a Direction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
General Commentary: The system for the SPY is on a Buy signal 50%
As anticipated, the market hit resistance around 1110 and essentially went sideways for the week, so not a lot of change from the prior week.
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Stock Market Rally on Pause Until Mid March / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Current Position of the Market
Very Long-term trend - Down! The very-long-term cycles have taken over and if they make their lows when
expected, the bear market which started in October 2007 should continue until 2014.
SPX: Long-term trend - Up! We are in a medium-term bull market, which is a corrective move within a long term bear
market. This bull market should last until 2011-2012.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Stocks Bull Market Correction Continues Accumulating Bear Cannon Fodder / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Tory's Panic on Narrowing Opinion Polls
Time is running out for Gordon Brown to declare the date for the UK general election. Despite gaff after gaff, the stumbling, tumbling Gordon Brown has some good news as the opinion polls have narrowed considerably over the past few weeks firmly into the realms of a hung parliament. A shocked conservative party that despite a slick marketing machine against Labour's chaos has redoubled it's efforts to push towards a Conservative victory after the complacency of a few weeks ago.
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Stock Market Short-Term Advance Could Set Up For a Major Top / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
So here we are, still in this B wave up, snapback rally, whatever you want to call it.
While the Full Stochastics are back to being overbought we have the general structure showing the potential of some more work to do on the upside next week.
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Stock Market Trend Remains in a Correction / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The big news last week was the failure of all of the major averages to follow through on the impressive gains recorded the week ending 02/19/10. As noted in last week's Market Letter, all of the major averages with the exception of the DJ Transportation and the DJ Utility Indexes had broken out of their downward channels. Also, most of the majors had completed a 50% retracement of their declines from the mid-January 2010 highs to the early February 2010 lows suggesting that a complete retracement back to the January 2010 highs were in the cards. The negatives in the market out weigh the positives at this time suggesting that a pull back over the next three to four weeks is a good possibility.”
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Sunday, February 28, 2010
Stock Market SPY Price Probability Forecast 2010 / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
In markets, anything can happen. Events in particular can cause quantum shifts in sentiment, real economic prospects, and valuation levels. However, absent discontinuities in ambient information, the probability of various prices being attained can reasonably be estimated using the Black-Scholes model.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Stock Market Rallies Getting Weaker and Weaker / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
This is a commentary on the SP 500 index and the broader NYSE index. As I often mention here for Partners, we try to work in probabilities and then plan accordingly with our investing and trading. I look at Elliott Waves, Fibonacci levels, oversold and overbought patterns, cycles, and other indicators to give me some clues. Today, we look at an indicator called The Force Index.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Company Insiders Have Been Selling the Stock Market Rally / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Company insiders are selling in record numbers, once again. Yes, insiders have been selling for the better part of 8 months as share prices have risen, but how good could a company's prospects be if those at the controls don't see any benefit of holding onto their shares? The S&P500 has moved over 60% since the March, 2009 lows.
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Saturday, February 27, 2010
Stock Market No Follow Through...Yet! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Yesterday we saw the market reverse beautifully off some very bad intraday lows. The Dow not far from being down 200 points. The late reversal and hollow bullish candle suggested today would be a very strong up day for the bulls. The futures were suggesting this would happen early on this morning until we got some very nasty news from that old dog, American International Group, Inc. (AIG). It said things were far worse than anticipated with losses in the billions. They also said, and this is what hurt the most, that they would need another strong infusion of cash from the Government if they were to survive. Ouch!!
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Friday, February 26, 2010
Is the Stock Market Saying the Economy Will Remain Strong? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Last summer, worries that the serious global recession was going to wind up in a global depression were replaced with confidence the recession would soon end.Global stimulus efforts began to work. Plunging home sales reversed to monthly sales gains. Job losses that had been exceeding 500,000 a month improved to only 150,000 jobs being lost monthly. Home prices began to improve. Consumer confidence began to rise. The steep decline in corporate earnings slowed its pace significantly.
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Thursday, February 25, 2010
Stock Market 600 Point Crash.... Up / News_Letter / Stock Markets 2010
The Market Oracle NewsletterFebruary 21st, 2010 Issue #12 Vol. 4 Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 25, 2010
What’s So Special About This Nasdaq Stock Index Chart? / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
It's the NDX 100 Index off the 2007 peak. Does anything jump out at you? It shouldTake a good look:
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Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Stock Market Bullish Retracement / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
These are usually sharp but short lived, well see if that happens here.
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Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Stocks Pullback From Highs / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Becalmed US equities closed little changed overnight, with modest gains in financials offset by modest losses in the energy sector. In truth there has been little news for the market to trade off. On the negative side of the ledger, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index looked more like its NY Fed counterpart than the upbeat Philly Fed survey released last Thursday. Of particular note was the very sharp pull-back reported in new orders. By contrast the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index rose in January with the three-month average now at its highest level since July 2007. This index is now back at levels that would typically point to an economy growing at a trend-like rate of growth.
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Sunday, February 21, 2010
Stock Market 600 Point Crash.... Up / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Headline grabbing title?
The U.S. Fed raised the discount rate for overnight funding from 0.5% to 0.75% last Thursday evening which sent the financial blogosphere into a frenzy of anticipation of a sharp drop in stock prices the following day.... The Dow closed UP 9 points.
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Friday, February 19, 2010
Stock Market Extends 5 Day Rally! / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
The stock market indices pushed higher today and extended the 5-day rally. The day started out with a bit of mixed action, and then they had a 3-wave move to new highs on the Nasdaq 100 but failed to confirm on the S&P 500. By midday they had backed off in an orderly fashion indicating the probability of higher prices later on in the afternoon, and that certainly occurred.
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Thursday, February 18, 2010
Three Walls of Worry Hitting the Stock Market / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Stock markets around the world are down about 10 percent since their January highs. Complacency, which was so high only weeks ago, has quickly vanished. Worries, if not outright angst, have returned.
However, if you take a closer look, you can detect interesting differences in the “walls of worry” building up in three major regions of the world. And since it’s often said that stocks climb walls of worry, these could lead to the next leg up for stock prices …
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Thursday, February 18, 2010
Today's Current Stock Market Accumulation-Distribution Study / Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010
Occasionally, we share our Institutional Accumulation/Distribution chart on this free member site. Today, will be one of those days.
In this daily study, we calculate Institutional Investor buying levels and selling levels. Then, we subtract the Institutional buying reading from the Institutional selling reading.
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