Analysis Topic: Politics & Social Trends
The analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Sunday, March 08, 2020
UK CORONAVIRUS WARNING - All Schools to Close Next Week for 6 Months! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Here is a reminder of our expectations that ALL UK schools could close by the end of next week as the the calm before the storm stage is now over as the UK sees the number of infections start to go parabolic, likely to pass 300 today (Sunday). My forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 3 weeks ago. And that Britain's schools could remain close for 6 months until September!
So watch the video so that we are all prepared for when the inevitable outbreaks start taking place across all of Britain's major cities, Birmingham, Manchester, Sheffield, London, Leeds etc.
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
Coronavirus Straightforward Calculations on COVID-19 Risks / Politics / Pandemic
By: Submissions
Daniel Nevins writes: As recently as two weeks ago, it wasn’t clear which infectious disease experts had the best handle on COVID-19’s likely path.
Among the optimists, one operation ran a model in February that showed the following maximum case counts by the “end of the epidemic.” (I’ve included the running case tally as well, using data from the Johns Hopkins dashboard.)
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
How Deadly is the Coronavirus? Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 of my latest analysis that seeks to convert the unfolding Coronavirus Pandemic into a stock market trend forecast, a pandemic that increasingly looks likely to be the worst the world has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 10% of the world's population. Thankfully, so far this virus looks set kill less than 1/10th that of the Spanish flu, still extremely deadly that the markets are NOT fully discounting the consequences of and that the virus could mutate into an even deadlier strain that it has already done at least once to date ( S type into L type).
Just how deadly is the Coronavirus? For the answer to that we look to the case fatality rate across a number of infected countries with differing capabilities in their ability to test for infections and then to compare against the conclusion of my analysis of 21st February that took into account serious under reporting in the numbers infected in China, probably to a magnitude of at least X7 that concluded in a probable Coronavirus case fatality rate of 0.64% which if accurate would make the Covid-19 about 15 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.
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Saturday, March 07, 2020
UK Coronavirus Panic Buying, Empty Supermarket Shelves - Preppers Tesco Shopping Trip Sheffield / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
Britian's more clued in shoppers have been busy stripping supermarket shelves bare as the number of coronavirus infections starts to go parabolic, which has claimed its first UK death. A second coronavirus victim is feared to have died at a hospital in Milton Keynes as the total number of cases across the UK jumps to 163. The Department of Health confirmed the deadly bug is spreading at its fastest rate yet as a total of 47 people tested positive in the last 24 hours.
Here we go on an a preppers style shopping trip to our local Tesco supermarket in Sheffield to stock up in advance of the looming Coronavirus storm only to find many shelves have already been stripped bare, and it is unlikely that Supermarkets have enough stocks to meet demands for many items such as hand sanitisers.
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Friday, March 06, 2020
How Deadly is the Coronavirus - Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 1 of 2 of my latest analysis that seeks to convert the unfolding Coronavirus Pandemic into a stock market trend forecast, a pandemic that increasingly looks likely to be the worst the world has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 10% of the world's population. Thankfully, so far this virus looks set kill less than 1/10th that of the Spanish flu, still extremely deadly that the markets are NOT fully discounting the consequences of and that the virus could mutate into an even deadlier strain that it has already done at least once to date ( S type into L type).
Just how deadly is the Coronavirus? For the answer to that we look to the case fatality rate across a number of infected countries with differing capabilities in their ability to test for infections and then to compare against the conclusion of my analysis of 21st February that took into account serious under reporting in the numbers infected in China, probably to a magnitude of at least X7 that concluded in a probable Coronavirus case fatality rate of 0.64% which if accurate would make the Covid-19 about 15 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.
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Thursday, March 05, 2020
Coronavirus Pandemic Going Parabolic, US and UK COVID19 Infections Forecasts / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest infections data for the world excluding China, which despite a proper record of Africa and the South Central America's numbers has the number of infected literally going parabolic, soaring by over 1735 overnight to 10,298 to well above my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by the end of March 2020.
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Thursday, March 05, 2020
UK Coronavirus Pandemic Going Parabolic! Infections Forecast - Video / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include community spread that is unable to be tracked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which currently are the main transmission points for the virus.
Also I observed puzzling BBC and Channel 4 news reporting today on the case fatality rate of 3.5% only being twice as deadly as the regular flu! When 3.5% is 90 times as deadly as the flu! So it looks like the UK Government has instructed the mainstream broadcast media to start preparing the general population for a lot of Coronavirus deaths! And thus to start peddling propaganda that it is only twice as deadly as the flu! Which I will include the footage of in future videos.
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Wednesday, March 04, 2020
US Coronavirus Infections About to Go Parabolic - Day 42 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Apparently the CDC has been sending out Coronavirus test kits that don't work! So how many hundreds of infected have been roaming US streets infecting fellow citizens because the CDC is incompetent. it looks like the CDC wants to 'control' media attention on the Coronavirus than actually do their job in preventing outbreaks, much as the WHO have been shown to be little more than media whores rather do anything proactive in preventing outbreaks, an example of which is failure to halt all flight from China! That they should have done in January!.
My US trend forecast is for 13,000 infected by the end of March resulting in about 180 deaths. Though the actual number may turn out to be significantly higher because I see little sign that the US is taking the Coronavirus seriously enough, where many are still shrugging it off as being not that much worse than the flu. Instead it is at least 15 times as deadly as the flu, and depending on quality of healthcare can be 100 times as deadly!
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Wednesday, March 04, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 35 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include community spread that is unable to be tracked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which currently are the main transmission points for the virus.
Also I observed puzzling BBC and Channel 4 news reporting today on the case fatality rate of 3.5% only being twice as deadly as the regular flu! When 3.5% is 90 times as deadly as the flu! So it looks like the UK Government has instructed the mainstream broadcast media to start preparing the general population for a lot of Coronavirus deaths! And thus to start peddling propaganda that it is only twice as deadly as the flu! Which I will include the footage of in future videos.
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Tuesday, March 03, 2020
Coronavirus Infections OutSide China Going Parabolic - COVID-19 Pandemic Day 85 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Taking account of the fact that China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, and that the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping black holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America where the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents will likely have infected many thousands of people that as was the case with China will largely remain unrecorded, but will result in a a sharp spike in the numbers of deaths at some point. Thus the primary objective of this analysis is to forecast the reported numbers of infected. In respect of which my forecast as of 12th of February concluded in expectations for the then number of 500 infected to increase to a total of approx 129,250 by the end of March 2020, as the rate of increase was expected to go parabolic during March..
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Coronavirus Infections Going Parabolic Outside China - Pandemic Day 84 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Whilst China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, meanwhile the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate, at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America, to imagine that there is just 1 infection in Egypt and 1 in Brazil is delusional, given the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents, instead the infected number in Africa and South America already likely runs into the several thousands that as of yet remain unrecorded, so expect a sharp spike in numbers at some point when the degree of infections is acknowledged.
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Monday, March 02, 2020
UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 34 Update / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include person to person infections that are unable to be linked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which remain the main transmission points for the virus..
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Monday, March 02, 2020
UK Coronavirus WARNING - All Schools, Colleges, and Universities Closed by Mid March, Outbreaks Imminent! / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
The fact that the UK only has 36 cases does not alter the fact that the UK is still in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage as my forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in 90 deaths. Analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 2 weeks ago. Where Britain's school could remain closed until September!
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Monday, March 02, 2020
Quit Social Media and Simplify Your Life... Like Me! / Politics / Social Media
By: Jeff_Berwick
After a crazy and busy week at Anarchapulco, I’m happy to be spending some much needed alone time in Valle de Bravo, Mexico, with the family.
As I have spent some time reading and decompressing, I thought to myself that I really need to make some serious changes in my life.
All of a sudden, the other day, the name Howard Hughes popped into my head which led me to do a quick bit of research about his life out of curiosity.
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Sunday, March 01, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus COVID-19 WARNING - R0 4.6 Infection Spread Rate! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..
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Saturday, February 29, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus WARNING - R0 4.6 Outbreak Infection Rate! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
Coronavirus pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket ever higher, now totaling 2931 infected and 17 deaths, this despite deploying immense resources towards containment. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases, whilst reports continue of mass cremations taking place.
Therefore given the reliability of South Korea's monitoring and systems, then the outbreak in this nation is likely more accurately reflects what to expect in terms of outbreaks in the West than China's statistics that everyone now agrees have grossly under reported the true number of infections AND deaths by several magnitudes. In fact China's statistics are modeled on an outbreak starting Mid January rather than early December! And thus my recent in-depth analysis concluded that Chinese reported cases are under reported by at least X7, and deaths by X2.
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Thursday, February 27, 2020
Trump or Sanders? Both will pile up the Debt / Politics / US Debt
By: Richard_Mills
Whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican installed in the White House this November, you can count on fiscal discipline going out the window. Neither the incumbent, President Donald J. Trump, nor the leading Democratic contender to replace him, Bernie Sanders, appears to give a hoot about shoveling more onto the enormous pile of debt that a few months ago shot past $23 trillion.
Why does this matter? Because debt impedes economic growth . And just like a business, if a country isn’t growing, it’s dying.
Keep that in mind as we explain how the real problem with the US economy, and what is driving gold prices ever higher, is not the coronavirus (though Covid-19 is certainly making things worse), but the 500-pound debt gorilla that is sitting on Uncle Sam’s chest, fattened by an all-you-can-eat buffet of dollar-denominated debt.
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Wednesday, February 26, 2020
South Korea Coronavirus Outbreak Data Analysis Warning Rate of Infection is Exponential! / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket ever higher, now totaling 1261 infected and 12 deaths, this despite deploying immense resources towards containment. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases, whilst reports continue of mass cremations taking place.
Therefore given the reliability of South Korea's monitoring and systems, then the outbreak in this nation is likely a more accurately reflect of what for outbreaks in the West than China's statistics, that everyone now agrees have grossly under reported the true number of infections AND deaths by several magnitudes. Where my recent in-depth analysis concluded that Chinese reported cases are under reported by at least X7, and deaths by X2.
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Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Coronavirus IN Sheffield! Royal Hallamshire Hospital treating 2 infected Patients, UK / Politics / Pandemic
By: N_Walayat
So the UK government relocated 38 people from onboard the coronavirus infested Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Japan to Britain, who despite being in quarantine for 2 weeks, and supposedly NOT infected however when landing in Britain many tested positive, and so instead treating the infected at a remote facility so as to limit the risk of exposure to the general population, the government disbursed them to the very heart of Britians largest cities such as Sheffield, where the Royal Hallamshire Hospital situated at the very heart of Sheffield is now host to 2 infected patients!
It's mindless actions such as this which ensures that Britain is going to have a Coronavirus epidemic because it is clear 2 weeks quarantine is NOT enough, that and our government is bloody incompetent!
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Sunday, February 23, 2020
CoronaVirus Pandemic Day 76 Trend Forecast Update - Infected 540k, Minus China 1715, Deaths 4920 / Politics / Pandemic
By: Nadeem_Walayat
The latest Coronavirus / COVID19 pandemic news has South Korea effectively declaring a national emergency as the nations Coronavirus cases continue to rocket higher, now totaling over 600 infected and 6 deaths. Meanwhile the basket case north of the border with far greater cross border travel with China apparently has zero cases! This whilst reports of mass cremations taking place.
Meanwhile in Europe, Italy has an outbreak under way with over 100 testing positive and 2 deaths with several hundred thousands of people put under quarantine, a taste of what is to come to Europe as the virus is clearly not being contained. This whilst western health care institutions such as the NHS following the Chinese playbook of painting a picture of being fully prepared to cope with outbreaks. Despite the fact that the NHS can barely cope with regular flu let alone a virus that is 15X more deadly resulting in 100X as many seriously ill patients than influenza.
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