UK Coronavirus Infected Numbers Going Parabolic - Day 34 Update

Politics / Pandemic Mar 02, 2020 - 04:17 PM GMT

The total number of infections recorded in the UK has now started to increase on a daily basis, which now include person to person infections that are unable to be linked back to one of the growing outbreak hot spots across the world i.e. people who have brought the virus into the UK from China, South Korea or Italy which remain the main transmission points for the virus..

The fact that the UK only has 40 cases does not alter the fact that the UK is in the calm before the coronavirus storm stage as my forecast of 14th Feb 2020 concluded in the number infected to trend to 5000 by the end of March resulting in some 90 deaths, which would represent a huge parabolic increase from the current tally of 40 infected.

However my analysis of what is happening in South Korea illustrates that outbreaks tend to be explosive, soon jumping from 1 to 1000 infected in a matter of days, which is likely the pattern to expect in the UK, that I am sure will prompt emergency, even panic response such as cancellation of virtually all public events, schools, universities and colleges being closed, and infected hot spots being quarantined, all likely to start taking place by Mid March, as I first warned to expect to happen over 2 weeks ago. Where Britain's school could remain closed until September!

The bottom line is that most western nations are still in the calm before the coronavirus storm change where outbreaks could spread a nearer to r5.0 rather than oft mentioned r2.6, at least for the first few days of an outbreak, which means the UK having just 40 managed cases is nothing to get complacent about for there WILL be outbreaks in the UK that will be just as bad as in South Korea and closer still Italy, it is only a matter of time that should not be wasted but rather utilised to prepare for, especially given the fact that the NHS has only spare capacity for 400 cortically ill patients, that could number 1000 by the end of March alone, let alone be able to cope with that which will follow in April and May. And worse still most of the beds will likely be occupied by HEALTH workers, as they are most at risk of becoming infected. So the general public stands a hope in hells chance of being treated for Coronavirus once the epidemic starts to get going by Mid March.

Stock Market Trend Implications

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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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