How Deadly is the Coronavirus? Case Fatality Rate (CFR) Analysis
Politics / Pandemic Mar 07, 2020 - 11:40 AM GMTThis is part 1 of 2 of my latest analysis that seeks to convert the unfolding Coronavirus Pandemic into a stock market trend forecast, a pandemic that increasingly looks likely to be the worst the world has faced since the 1918 Spanish flu that killed an estimated 10% of the world's population. Thankfully, so far this virus looks set kill less than 1/10th that of the Spanish flu, still extremely deadly that the markets are NOT fully discounting the consequences of and that the virus could mutate into an even deadlier strain that it has already done at least once to date ( S type into L type).
Just how deadly is the Coronavirus? For the answer to that we look to the case fatality rate across a number of infected countries with differing capabilities in their ability to test for infections and then to compare against the conclusion of my analysis of 21st February that took into account serious under reporting in the numbers infected in China, probably to a magnitude of at least X7 that concluded in a probable Coronavirus case fatality rate of 0.64% which if accurate would make the Covid-19 about 15 times as deadly as the seasonal flu.
Stock Market Trend Implications
My stock market analysis and trend forecast BASED on my Coronavirus analysis of late January was first made available to Patrons who support my work. That basically WARNED to expect THIS decline on the 9th of February! Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?
Part 2 of this analysis will be first made available to Patrons who support my work.
Whilst my latest updates of what to expect are:
- Coronavirus Parabolic Pandemic, Bitcoin Price Trend Forecast
- The Coronavirus Stocks Bear Market Begins, When Will it End?
So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month. https://www.patreon.com/Nadeem_Walayat.
Recent analysis includes :
- Coronavirus Global Calm Before the Viral Storm - China Infection Statistics Probability Analysis
- UK Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Trend Forecast to End March 2020
- Will CoronaVirus Pandemic Trigger a Stocks Bear Market 2020?
- Silver Price Trend Forecast 2020
- Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020
- British Pound GBP Trend Forecast 2020
- AI Stocks 2019 Review and Buying Levels Q1 2020
- Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020
Scheduled Analysis Includes:
- Coronavirus stocks bear market trend forecast
- UK Housing market series
- Machine Intelligence Investing stocks sub sector analysis
- Bitcoin trend forecast
- Euro Dollar Futures
- EUR/RUB
- US House Prices trend forecast update
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Your Analyst
Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
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