Coronavirus Infections OutSide China Going Parabolic - COVID-19 Pandemic Day 85
Politics / Pandemic Mar 03, 2020 - 07:31 PM GMTTaking account of the fact that China's infection numbers cannot be trusted, and that the developed worlds numbers should prove more accurate at least in the early stages of the pandemic. Though we still have two gaping black holes on the world Map i.e. Africa and Central & South America where the comings and goings of upwards of 1 million chinese workers across the continents will likely have infected many thousands of people that as was the case with China will largely remain unrecorded, but will result in a a sharp spike in the numbers of deaths at some point. Thus the primary objective of this analysis is to forecast the reported numbers of infected. In respect of which my forecast as of 12th of February concluded in expectations for the then number of 500 infected to increase to a total of approx 129,250 by the end of March 2020, as the rate of increase was expected to go parabolic during March..
The latest data, which despite proper a record of African and the South Central America's numbers does have the official number of infections is literally going Parabolic, soaring by over 1735 overnight to 10,298 to well above my trend forecast that projects to an official tally of 129,250 infections outside China by the end of March 2020.
Infections | |
Forecast for 2nd March | 5,442 |
Actual - 2nd March | 10,298 |
% Diff | 190% |
Were this trend to continue into the end of March 2020 then the number of infected outside of China would total 245,000, which would not bode well for what was to come for April and May 2020 (much higher humber's). Whilst the number of deaths could be estimated to be at least 15,718 based on a case fatality rate of 0.64% as per the conclusion of my analysis of 21st Feb.
South Korea Infection Spread Warning
Whilst reliable South Korean data warns of literally exponential spread of the coronavirus in the early days of outbreaks, where R0 rather than being 2 to 2.6 as being the consensus view instead South Korean data calculates R0 to 4.6! Literally explosive growth in the number of infections before a nations healthcare system is able to respond, this explosive early growth is likely as a consequence that those infected can be asymptomatic for between 3 and 7 days and a few super spreads for as many as 14 days! Who unbeknown are literally infecting dozens of people per day who themselves go onto infect several each..
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Nadeem Walayat has over 30 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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