Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Precious Metals, US Dollar: How It All Relates – Part I / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
The recent movement in the precious metals markets, an incredible 33% upside price move since August 2018, has reflected an increased level of fear and greed throughout the global markets. Particularly, throughout the foreign markets. Precious metals, specifically Gold, has skyrocketed to some of the highest levels in recent times as foreign currencies devalue against the US Dollar. Still, consumers, institutions and central governments/banks are buying as much as they can right now.
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Bank of England’s Carney Delivers Dollar Shocker at Jackson Hole meeting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Michael_J_Kosares
Bank of England governor Mark Carney, in something of a shocker, told the recent Jackson Hole central bankers’ conference that the world’s reliance on the US dollar ‘won’t hold’ and needs to be replaced by a new international monetary and financial system based on many more global currencies,” according to a Financial Times report. The greatest impact of Carney’s bombshell, though, came not from his opinion on the look and feel of some futuristic global monetary system. It came instead from his seeming tacit approval of the escalating movement to dethrone the dollar as the world’s reserve currency in the here and now. A good many in that audience were no doubt surprised – even rattled – by Carney’s remarks.
“Something is going on,” said St. Louis Fed President James Bullard in a Financial Times report, “and that’s causing I think a total rethink of central banking and all our cherished notions of what we think we’re doing. We just have to stop thinking that next year things are going to be normal.” To which FT added: “Interest rates are not going back up anytime soon, the role of the dollar is under scrutiny – both as a haven asset and as a medium of exchange – and trade uncertainty has become a permanent feature of policymaking.”
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Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Gold and Silver Wounded Animals, Indeed / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Sector expert Michael Ballanger offers his observations of recent activity in the gold and silver markets. "The permabulls will tell you that the bullion banks and their treasury department conspirators have lost all power in this 'new paradigm' and we should relax and refrain from worry. I tend to disagree because wounded animals are the singular most dangerous of all creatures on this debt-ravaged planet, and with gold at $1,552, these cartel cretins are now wounded, angry and very desperate animals." —Michael Ballanger, Sept. 2, 2019; silver at $19.00 one day before the top
OK, so now that there is zero doubt surrounding the recent demise of the bullion banks, I was reminded yesterday (amidst the gnarling and gnashing of many a silver bulls' incisors) of a famous Mark Twain quote surrounding rumors of his passing: "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."
That is exactly the reply of the criminal cartel last week as bullion bank shenanigans took a page out of the Carpe Diem playbook and absolutely pounded the precious metals with such feral ferocity that they quite predictably set off a retail panic of the highest order. One very prominent gold and silver bull tweeted out, "It should be noted that Crimex silver is still up on the week!", to which I quickly and cynically replied, "Tell that to my margin clerk."
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Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Gold Significant Correction Has Started / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the factors he sees pulling gold down. Although a major precious metals sector bull market has certainly started, various fundamental and technical factors came together last week to suggest that a significant correction to the recent strong run-up has now started.
The main fundamental development was the announcement that there will be a Trade War summit between China and the U.S. early next month, with hopes being expressed that this may lead to compromise or some kind of truce. Whilst the chances of improvement may be slim, the market has got what it wants for now which is hope, and this hope should continue at least until this meeting, which provides the excuse for the markets to go "risk on" until then, which is why the stock market broke higher last week, delaying but not eliminating our crash scenario.
A return to "risk on" is clearly not good for the precious metals, which, until last week, had been benefiting from a flight to safety as had the dollar, creating the unusual situation where the dollar and gold were rising at the same time. Now, in a risk on environment they are suddenly out of favor again.
In addition to this fundamental argument we have a range of technical indicators pointing to a correction in the precious metals sector that we will now look at. They include its overbought status, overly bullish sentiment readings and COTs showing extreme readings.
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Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Silver's Sharp Reaction Back / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Clive_Maund
Silver reacted back sharply on Thursday and Friday after a parabolic blowoff top. This was not a final top, but it does indicate that silver needs to take a rest and consolidate/react back, probably for at least several weeks.
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Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Gold to Correct as Stocks Rally / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
It has taken a few weeks to play out but our warning of a correction in precious metals (first on August 18) is coming to pass.
Last week Gold, Silver and GDX all formed big bearish reversals at multi-year resistance levels. Yes, these resistance levels (Gold $1550, Silver $18.50, GDX 31) date back to 2013.
Bonds and precious metals have benefitted from the shift in Fed policy as well as fears of recession and growth in negative interest rate bonds.
These drivers could pause or shift temporarily and that would be supportive of stocks and not precious metals. Let me explain.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
Buying Pullbacks in Silver & Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
By Andy Hecht : After a very bullish summer, it was a week of reversals in the metals markets. The impact of gravity hit the gold and silver markets late last week after both had made new highs. Meanwhile, copper went the other way as the early week new low led to a significant price recovery by the end of the week.
The daily chart of December gold futures highlights the move to a marginal new high at $1566.20 on September 4 that gave way to the selling that dropped price by over $50. Gold has held the $1500 level so far, but time will tell if the reversal on the weekly chart brings a new wave of selling next week.
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Monday, September 09, 2019
Large Drop in Stocks, Big Rally in Gold and Silver / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Brad_Gudgeon
The week ahead, looks treacherous for the stock market, but should be a boon for gold, silver and share mining stocks. The cycles, waves and astro aspects are coming together nicely for a possible quick 6% drop on the S&P 500.
The SPX chart below shows the 16 TD top on Sept 5, along with a first quarter moon and Bradley turn. We are going into the 5/35 week cycle low in a 4 year cycle low from late 2015 due Monday-Friday (9/9-13). These usually go lower than the previous 10 week low that occurred on Aug 5. I don’t believe we go much below 2780 as an extreme target, perhaps as much as 42 points below the August 5 low of 2822.
Sunday, September 08, 2019
Precious Metals Were Ripe for a Pullback / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
If you hear one peep out of the gold community about a precious metals “take down”, “attack” or any other such aggressive or war-like language you will then be hearing some old fashioned and promotional gold bug orthodoxy. Fortunately, a casual look around the Bug-o-Sphere does not yield too many obvious conspiracy theorists or importantly, cheerleaders.
Indeed, it seems that all too many bugs expected this correction in gold, silver and the miners. That is a good thing because when the real top comes these ladies are going to be out front and greed will be running rampant (quite possibly against a negative fundamental or valuation backdrop as in 2008).
Instead, everybody it seems knew about the high risk Commitments of Traders situation for gold and silver. The CoT is not a timer, but for weeks now it had been a condition that’s been in place for a correction. It’s not a “take down”, it’s a condition of too much speculation that had to be addressed. Now it is. Other CoT data available here.
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Saturday, September 07, 2019
Fed’s Cut Puzzle and Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC amid solid US economy remains a mystery. We invite you to read our today’s article about the Fed’s cut puzzle and its find out what does it mean for the gold market.
At the end of July, the Fed trimmed the federal funds rate. However, the dovish U-turn within the FOMC – just half a year after an interest rate hike – remains a mystery. After all, the data indicates that the labor market remains strong – unemployment rate is still at the record low – while the GDP has been rising at a moderate rate. While the inflation rate is below the target, it’s still significantly above the deflation zone. So why the heck did the Fed cut rates? The answer to this question is of great importance as long-term implications for gold differ depending on the possible reason.
First, the U.S. central bank could lower interest rates because Powell could not stand the pressure of the White House and the merciless tweets of Donald Trump. The Fed is, of course, nominally independent, but investors should not be naïve. The past presidents and policymakers also applied pressure on the Fed. The most famous example is the story how in 1965, President Lyndon Johnson summoned William McChesney Martin, the Fed Chairman, to his Texas ranch where Johnson physically shoved him around living room, yelling in his face, “Boys are dying in Vietnam, and Bill Martin doesn’t care.” The only difference is that past presidents tended to stick to creating pressure behind closed doors, while Trump is simply more public. If true, it would be a very positive scenario for gold prices. The politicians love low interest rates, and Trump is a particularly vocal supporter of cheap money.
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Friday, September 06, 2019
Why College-Bound Students Consider Buying Gold Instead, Expect 3 Year Gold Bull Run / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.
Later in today’s program we’ll hear a fascinating interview with Greg Weldon of Weldon Financial. Greg breaks down the recent move in silver, a move off of a breakout point he called spot on on this program a few weeks ago, and also gives us his thoughts on the pullback we saw on Thursday.
Greg also tells us at what price on the downside he expects will provide major support in both gold and silver if we do see a further pullback from here. So, don’t miss my interview with the man they call the Gold Guru, coming up after this week’s market update.
This week brought more big moves in precious metals markets. The biggest mover, no surprise, is silver.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
The Great Gold and Silver Precious Metals Melt-Up / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund presents his dystopian view of the future. The distinguishing feature of fiat money systems is that they are licentious—they are created by corrupt politicians so that they can act without restraint by, for example, promising the citizens the earth in order to improve their chances of being re-elected. The population can pick up the tab later in the form of devalued money that buys them less. The current dollar fiat money system was created by then President Richard Nixon in 1971, hardly an edifying character, and, thinking about it, it was very apt that it was him who created it by getting rid of the gold standard.
It is inherent in fiat money systems that they self-destruct, since they are essentially fraudulent, their modus operandi being to enable politicians to go on endless spending binges, knowing that society at large will foot the bill as a result of their money being devalued. The current fiat money system, which can be dated back to the ending of the gold standard in 1971, is 48 years old and in its death throes. What happens with fiat is that money becomes increasingly worthless at an accelerating rate until it enters the final terminal phase which is a hyperinflationary vortex that results in it becoming utterly worthless—and we are right on the doorstep of that phase now.
When the global financial crisis hit in 2008—2009 the world was at a crossroads—it is was the last chance to clean up the mess and get back to the straight and narrow. Cleaning up the mess would have involved letting the banks and brokerage houses that created it go bust, but those responsible for it didn't want to "face the music" and they had the political influence to make sure they didn't have to. So, society at large had to pick up the tab for their misdemeanors. They were bailed out at huge cost and the system put on life support in the form of massive fiat creation—quantitative easing—which enabled them to drop interest rates to zero to stop debt compounding and then use the cheap money to engage in an orgy of speculation, while the "little guy" continued to be charged usurious rates if he wanted to borrow any money.
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Silver Is Still A Must-Buy At These Levels / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Hubert_Moolman
We are coming into the traditional season for intense silver rallies. With silver recently making a really important breakout, things are setting up for a memorable period in the silver markets.
Furthermore, the decision to buy silver for the long-term is basically a no-brainer given that the Gold/Silver ratio is still around 80. Below, is a long-term Gold/Silver ratio chart as well as a Silver chart (from macrotrends.net), to illustrate this:
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Thursday, September 05, 2019
Gold as a Strategic Asset - in 2019 and Beyond / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Recently, the World Gold Council published a 2019 edition of a report on gold as a strategic asset. The industry organization released later the UK edition as well. Plenty of food for thought. How can the learnings from these publications strengthen our investment decisions?
Why Gold?
Why investors should add gold, that does not bear any yield, to their portfolios? There are a few really good reasons. First, gold is a source of long-term capital gains, and the gold market is both deep and liquid (liquidity is an important but sometimes forgotten factor when establishing a strategic holding by investors). The yellow metal has not only outperformed all major fiat currencies, but also bonds or commodities. According to the WGC, the price of gold has increased by an average of 10 percent per year since 1971 when gold began to be freely traded following the collapse of Bretton Woods. It makes gold’s long-term returns comparable to stocks.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Prospecting For Silver During Recessions / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
I am continually amazed at how every turn in the numbers and the economy seems to present new information that is bullish for gold and silver. The train of logic becomes downright laughable at times.
Other than entertaining in a perverse sort of way, the various proclamations and conclusions end up sooner or later in confliction with each other.
One of the more glaring examples involves buying gold and silver because of the possibility of a recession. Why?
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Gold Price Bull Run Trend Forecast Analysis Update - Video / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2 of 2 of my gold price trend forecast analysis update, (Part 1 https://youtu.be/u1yAB5s8BKQ)
Also this analysis was first made available to patrons who support my work (Gold Price Breakout - Trend Forecast 2019 July Update). So for immediate first access to ALL of my analysis and trend forecasts then do consider becoming a Patron by supporting my work for just $3 per month
So the gold price has broken out of it's long-term trading range of $1370 to $1150. Which means $1370 should now act as a floor under the Gold price, else it's back into the range for several more years! Next resistance is at just above $1500 and then $1800 which is my long-term target for the Gold price as of December 2016.
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Wednesday, September 04, 2019
Precious Metals Encounter Long-Term Resistance / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
A few weeks ago we wrote that precious metals were at risk of a correction.
First, they powered higher. But last week they ran into technical resistance levels that date back well beyond only a few years.
This is true for Gold, Silver as well as the miner ETFs: GDX and GDXJ.
Starting with Gold, we can see that it has struggled to get through $1550/oz. That’s not a surprise as we pointed out this level as resistance since Gold surpassed $1370/oz.
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Tuesday, September 03, 2019
Global Markets Chaos means Precious Metals will Continue to Rise / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Chris_Vermeulen
Reading the new today of the riots and protests in Hong Kong as well as the military action between Iran and Israel suggests to us that the metals markets are poised for a very big run this week and possibly much further into the future.
This type of Chaos creates a level of uncertainty in the global markets that will prompt a massive surge in the precious metals markets as traders and investors continue to pour into precious metals as a means to hedge against fear and weakness in the global markets. At this point, we believe a move in Gold could easily target $1640 or higher and Silver could target just under $21 over the next 5 to 10 days. This type of move would represent a +7 to 10% rally in Gold and a +10 to 20% rally in Silver.
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Monday, September 02, 2019
Macro Implications, as Silver Takes Leadership From Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Gary_Tanashian
Since we noted the initial move to break the 200 day moving average – and at least temporarily break the downtrend on August 27th – the Silver/Gold ratio (SLV/GLD) has held its breakout, looking to close the week and the month of August on a signal that we have long anticipated.
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Sunday, September 01, 2019
Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold, Trend Forecast Update / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Nadeem_Walayat
This is part 2/2 of my Silver Price 2019 trend forecast update - Part1 - Silver Price Tragets for 2019 - Forecast Update
So the Silver big question for 2019 is will the price be capped at resistance at $21 or like the Gold price breakout of its 5 year trading range to target the next resistance area of $25.
Silver is Still Cheap Relative to Gold
6 weeks ago ago the Gold / Silver ratio was trading at an historic extreme of 90.31, at a level not seen for over 25 years! In comparison to the historic average of 50 which on the then Gold price of $1330 would have had the Silver price trading at $26.60. Which illustrated how much of a coiled spring Silver tends to be as it has tendency to swing sharply higher rather than track the Gold price trend.
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