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Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Category: Gold & Silver 2019

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Commodities

Friday, May 10, 2019

Total Debt and Leveraged Loans to the Rescue of Gold Bulls? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The Fed has just published the newest edition of its Financial Stability Report. It covers what the most powerful central bank in the world perceives as risks to the financial system stability. Is it time for the gold bulls to uncork champagne?

Financial Sectors Appears Resilient, But…

The Fed’s assessment of the financial vulnerabilities in the latest Financial Stability Report has little changed since November 2018 when the report was inaugurated. The financial sector appears resilient, with low leverage and limited funding risk. It seems that gold will have to wait longer for a crisis that could push its prices out of the comfort zone.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 09, 2019

Gold Market Investors Subliminal Capitulation / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger suggests investors "never underestimate the replacement power of stocks within a Fed-induced credit bubble" and provides other observations on the markets. Looking back at the events of last week, the S&P 500 finally took out the October highs at 2,941 intraday, making the 2018 bear market one of the shortest on record at 93 days (Sept. 21–Dec. 24). You will recall that I wrote in early January that the action of the Santa Claus rally (positive) and the action of the First Five Days rule (positive) was finally confirmed by the January Indicator (positive), setting up new highs for 2019 (which was right). I also said that I expected a retest of the December lows (wrong) and a pullback from the 200 daily moving average (dma) in February (wrong) and that Goldman Sachs was headed back to $150 (wrong) (at least so far).

Look at these charts. Can any of you honestly see any difference? They both reek of intervention but the only difference is that the one from 2009 has now had books and movies written about it. We know that no one went to jail over the causes of the crash, and we know that the method used by the central bankers to correct the problem (which was to take in all of the toxic paper that was rotting their balance sheets) resulted in more debt creation ($14 trillion worth). This was exactly the root of the 2018 problem because as soon as they tried to remove the 2009 "bandaid,"they were catapulted right back to 2009. Stocks were simply gravitating back to their old trajectory before the Fed/Treasury bailout temporarily saved the stock market. What we got last Christmas Eve was the same bailout as in 2009, but it came about before people started to lose jobs and homes. The "V-bottom"turns in 2009 and in 2019 are identical, and emanated from interventions of the highest order and priority.

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Commodities

Thursday, May 09, 2019

New Federal Legislation Requires Full Audit of America’s Gold Reserves / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

U.S. Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) introduced legislation this week to provide for the first audit of United States gold reserves since the Eisenhower Administration.

The Gold Reserve Transparency Act (H.R. 2559) – backed by the Sound Money Defense League and government accountability advocates – directs the Comptroller of the United States to conduct a “full assay, inventory, and audit of all gold reserves, including any gold in ‘deep storage,’ of the United States at the place or places where such reserves are kept.”

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 08, 2019

Trump Bashes Political Correctness, Gold Rush Mascot Banned as Offensive / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The roller coaster presidency of Donald Trump is currently riding high as the stock market races back up to new highs, economic data come in better than expected, and Congressional Democrats’ endless investigations come up empty handed.

Trump’s approval rating recently hit 50% at the same time as CNN’s ratings are tanking.

Over the weekend, President Trump sent CNN and the rest of the “MSM” (mainstream media) into a tizzy by speaking out against the latest Big Tech purge of “far right” voices.

Trump re-tweeted verboten alternative media personalities including Paul Joseph Watson and Lauren Southern.

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Commodities

Tuesday, May 07, 2019

Silver Sets Up A Long-Term Wave B Bottom / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Precious Metals traders have been hanging on every turn in the markets over the past 2+ years.  The upside price move in early 2016 setup a very strong expectation that further upside price moves were about to result in an upside price explosion in metals.  Remember, 2016 was a very big US Presidential election year.  2020, being the next big US Presidential election year, is only about 7 months away and the rancor has already started in the news cycles.

Our proprietary Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting that Silver has set up an ABC bottom in Oct/Nov 2018 and has already initiated an A/B upside price leg that should result in a C or C/D/E price advance over the next few months.  Our Fibonacci price modeling system is suggesting an upside price target of $22 per ounce for this move, which breaks the previous July 2016 highs of $21.22.  We believe the ultimate upside target of this next bullish move is bear $28 to $29 based on longer-term Fibonacci price modeling.

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Commodities

Sunday, May 05, 2019

Russia and China Intend to Drain the West of Its Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

Welcome to this week’s Market Wrap Podcast, I’m Mike Gleason.

Coming up we have an eye-opening interview with Bill Holter of JS Mineset. Bill weighs in host of topics including our incredibly broken and phony markets, the truth behind why governments hate gold so much, and the real reasons why China and Russia are eagerly amassing huge gold positions.

Bill also highlights some tell-tale events he believes could cause a massive revaluation of gold and silver… and an implosion of the debt-based markets we have today. Don’t miss our explosive interview with Bill Holter, coming up after this week’s market update.

Precious metals markets got hit this week as the Federal Reserve threw cold water on the idea of interest rate cuts.

Fed policy makers met on Wednesday and left their benchmark rate unchanged as expected. The Fed’s statement noted that price inflation excluding food and energy has declined over the past 12 months and is officially running below 2%. This, even as oil and gasoline prices have trended sharply higher this year.

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Commodities

Saturday, May 04, 2019

Will Yuan Replace US Dollar and Make Gold Shine? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

“The US dollar will collapse or it will be replaced by another currency” – we hear such statements all the time. Are they true? We decided to check these claims – so we invite you to read our today’s article about the US dollar’s international supremacy and find out whether the greenback’s demise is likely in the foreseeable future. Let’s also draw implications from the analysis for the precious metals market.

We have heard about the fall of the US dollar’s significance for over half a century. In particular, the rise of China’s economy threatens the greenback’s dominance. Trump’s unsound fiscal policy and the recent Powell’s dovish turn only reinforce these fears. So, let’s analyze whether such a scenario is likely in the foreseeable future and let’s draw implications for the precious metals market.

The dollar’s supremacy started around 1955 when reserves held in greenback exceeded those held in pound sterling. Since then, the US dollar is a king. To be clear, we do not maintain that greenback is a wonderful currency without problems and better than gold. No, it simply has no competitors among other fiat currencies. It is a king of beggars.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 01, 2019

Gold and Silver Precious Metals Carpe Diem / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: The_Gold_Report

Sector expert Michael Ballanger reviews recent movements in precious metals and discusses how he is playing the market. Last week I sent out my uber-bullish call on the metals and miners at the conclusion of a period fraught with doom and despair for all things gold and silver. The criminality of the interventionists was in full bloom as they bombed gold down through that critical "Line in the Sand" at $1282 forcing the Speculative Longs (hedge funds, quant funds, technical funds) to immediately reverse and regurgitate longs and initiate big new short positions as the bullion bank behemoths took profits. First, let's revisit that missive.

From Saturday the 20th: "All right, now that I have concluded my rant on the madness being inflicted upon us, I have a couple of observations to make about gold. Earlier last week, I was looking at GLD wondering whether my GLD May $124 puts might hit $5.00 before the end of the week and then it occurred to me that my "Line in the Sand" at the prior lows of $1,282 and the subsequent "breakDOWN" was no different in its blatancy than the "breakOUT" in Barrick. So, I pulled up the GLD chart and lo and behold, while the sub-30 level for RSI sported two super buying opportunities in 2018, it has not been much under 35 in all of 2019 thus far. Now, notwithstanding that the stock markets are getting somewhat stretched, I have to respect two things: 1) the dotted red line in the RSI window in the chart below and 2) that only in the perverse world of precious metals are technical "breakdowns" to be BOUGHT while technical "breakouts to be SOLD. Therefore, I have covered all my shorts in both gold and the mining shares and initiated 50% long positions in JNUG, NUGT and the GLD June $120 calls. The chart below pretty much says all that is needed; we are at an inflection point that represented tradeable bottoms in mid-November and early March."

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 01, 2019

Why US Dollar Strength is Long Term Catalyst for Gold / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

As we know, Gold and the US Dollar have an inverse relationship. Gold is priced in US Dollars and the drivers of each are similar (from an inverse point of view). Over long-term periods both trend in the same direction but the magnitude of the moves can vary and be quite different.

The standard inverse relationship has not been a perfect one in recent months or years.

In the chart below we plot Gold, gold stocks and the US Dollar.

We highlight (with vertical lines) the points at which Gold tested the wall of resistance. As you can see, the relationship with the dollar hasn’t been uniform.

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Commodities

Wednesday, May 01, 2019

Silver Market Alert: Powerful Bullish Setup Takes Shape / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The silver market appears to be setting up for a big move.

After spending this spring stair-stepping lower in a narrowing range, silver prices have formed a falling wedge pattern. That pattern usually resolves in a powerful directional breakout. The good news for bulls is that falling wedges usually break out to the upside.

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Commodities

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Gold Price May Give Us One More Chance With New Lows / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Chris_Vermeulen

Our proprietary price cycle tool is showing us that the Daily Gold cycles may dive a bit lower, possibly into the $1250 to $1265 level, over the next 3~7+ days before reaching an ultimate low.  We’ve been covering the precious metals markets like hawks because of our proprietary price modeling tools that suggested the April 21~24 dates as an ultimate low/momentum base pattern.  This new cycle formation highlights the potential that a deeper price low in Gold may set up over the next 5 to 7 days and it may become an incredible buying opportunity for skilled traders.

Taking a look at this cycle chart, we can see the deep price low that may target the $1270 levels or levels just below the $1270 price area.  It appears that this new price low may form somewhere near the end of this week, May 3rd, or early next week, May 6th or 7th.  Please pay attention to this potential price move as this may be the last low price reversal before a very strong upside price move.

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Commodities

Sunday, April 28, 2019

Gold and Silver End of Week Technical, CoT and Fundamental Status / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Gary_Tanashian

After an interesting week and to allow more focus on charting the miners this weekend, we again offload much of the NFTRH Precious Metals segment’s content to the public site. The following is (hopefully) going to be long on charts and relatively short on words (sighs of relief palpable…).

HUI/Gold Ratio is intact to its higher lows from September. This was a logical bounce point for gold stocks. HGR needs to promptly take back the SMA 200, however.

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Commodities

Saturday, April 27, 2019

Near-Record Gold Shorting / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Zeal_LLC

Gold has failed to gain traction over the past couple months, normally a seasonally-strong time.  That has really weighed on sentiment, leaving traders increasingly bearish.  Gold investment demand has flagged dramatically with lofty stock markets spewing great euphoria.  That’s given gold-futures speculators the run of the market, where they have sold aggressively including extreme shorting.  But that’s actually very bullish.

Gold price action is driven by the collective trading of both investors and speculators.  The former control vast amounts of capital, which dominates gold prices when it is migrating in or out.  But investors’ interest in gold withers when stock markets are super-high.  When stocks seemingly do nothing but rally, there’s no perceived need to prudently diversify stock-heavy portfolios with counter-moving gold.  It falls out of favor.

Extreme stock-market euphoria is gold’s primary problem now, acting like kryptonite for gold investment.  This week the flagship US S&P 500 broad-market stock index clawed back to a new all-time record high.  That extended its monster rebound rally since late December’s near-bear lows to 24.8%!  The farther the stock markets advance, the more gold is forgotten.  Investors have relentlessly pulled capital back out of gold.

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Commodities

Friday, April 26, 2019

Will Fed’s New Balance Sheet Policy be a Reason to Buy Gold? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

As always, most analysts focus not on what they really should. After March FOMC meeting, everyone was talking about the more dovish dot-plot. But the Fed also announced that it will end the unwinding of its balance sheet in September. As these changes are revolutionary and may entail potentially huge consequences for the precious markets, we invite you to read our today’s article about the new Fed’s balance sheet policy and find out whether it will be positive for the gold prices.

Most analysts focus on the recent revision of the Fed’s dot-plot. This is of course very important – so we have analyzed them in the previous part of the April edition of the Market Overview – but we should not forget about very substantial changes in the US central bank’s balance sheet policy. We have described these modifications in the March 21 edition of the Gold News Monitor, but let’s now dig into the new Fed’s normalization plan.

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Commodities

Friday, April 26, 2019

Precious Metals Are All At Support / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Avi_Gilburt

I am not sure how much more I can add to what has been said over the last two weeks in the metals complex.

At this point in time, it is quite clear that the metals are testing support. As specifically noted about silver, the 14.60 support region is what I want to see holding as support here. While I can accept a spike and reversal of that level, a sustained break of that level opens the door to a 13 handle for a lower low bottoming in that chart.

As far as GLD is, the 119 region is the similar support region I want to see hold for a wave iv. And, in GDX, you can see we are now approaching the bottom of our support box as well.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Will Stephen Moore Make Gold Great Again? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Last month, Trump said that he considered Herman Cain and Stephen Moore as his picks to the Federal Reserve Board. As the former had withdrawn his name from consideration, the focus shifted to the latter. Who is Mr. Moore exactly and what would his nomination imply for the gold market?

Who Are You, Mr. Moore?

There are still two vacancies at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. It’s possible that Stephen Moore will fill one gap, which has provoked great controversy. President Trump has not officially nominated him yet, but the White House supports Moore for a seat on the Board, as Larry Kudlow, Trump’s top economic adviser, has recently reaffirmed.

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Commodities

Thursday, April 25, 2019

Silver Sentiment: Is It (Your) Friend or Foe? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: MoneyMetals

The gold and silver bull markets have been on a roller coaster ride for almost two decades. Gold came to life in 2000, with silver crawling along between $4 and $5 until late 2003, making its first print above $10 in March 2006.

The next two years saw the last part of a 400% up-move for those who "kept the faith," before silver dropped below $9 during the 2008 global financial meltdown.

Then it was up, up and away, as silver rocketed to nearly $50 by April 2011. By then, "everyone knew" it was going to $100.

A blogger announced he had sold his house to buy silver and advised others to do the same.
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Commodities

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Spring Has Arrived. Will Gold also Bloom? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Recent positive news suggest the US economy spring revival. But what about gold? Will it blossom? Will the gold love trade take reins from gold as a safe haven play?

Retail Sales Surge

Last week, the government has released its latest report on the retail sector. The retail sales jumped 1.6 percent in March, the best results since September 2017, as one can see in the chart below. The change was above expectations (the economists polled by MarketWatch forecasted sales to climb 1.1 percent) and it was solid (0.9 percent) even if we set gas and autos aside.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Can Gold Price Rise Without a Rate Cut?  / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne

The downside potential in precious metals discussed last week is playing out as Gold and gold stocks have broken down technically.

The global economy appears to be firming and that is evidenced by a sustained rebound in global equity markets.

As a result, the potential for a rate cut which pushed precious metals higher is now unwinding. That has caused the breakdown in precious metals and there is more unwinding to go.

We have trumpeted the need (in precious metals) for a rate cut as a fundamental catalyst for the next bull market. But there is another scenario that plays well for Gold.

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Commodities

Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Silver’s Next Big Move / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019

By: Kelsey_Williams

Eight years ago this month, silver started its “next big move”.  And that move continues today. It is awesome to behold. See the chart (ten-year history of silver prices) below…

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