Category: Gold & Silver 2019
The analysis published under this category are as follows.
Friday, January 10, 2020
How on Earth Can Gold Decline During the U.S. – Iran Crisis? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
So, did U.S. and Iran just become best friends?
Gold’s huge reversal and a decline of about $50 in 24 hours might certainly suggest so to those, who choose to follow the news instead of estimating market’s moves using more reliable tools.
Of course, the two countries are not on friendly terms at this time. So, what happened that gold declined so much, so fast? Let’s start with going over what we explained yesterday as gold’s price action confirmed it so well.
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Saturday, January 04, 2020
Setting Gold Market Expectations for 2020 Right / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Hooray, the twenties are here! But what will the 2020 bring for the gold market? Shall we see the beginning of the Belle Époque for the yellow metal?
Gold at the End of 2019
The last year was a very good one for the gold bulls, as one can clearly see in the chart below. Despite the soaring equities, the price of the yellow metal rose from $1279 to around $1520, or more than 18 percent. Bravo!
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Friday, January 03, 2020
The Big Picture Backdrop for Precious Metals Outlook 2020 / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The year ahead promises to be an eventful one. It will, of course, be dominated by political headlines leading up to the 2020 election. It could also be a big breakout year for precious metals.
In the second part of Money Metals' 2020 Outlook, we’ll drill down on the fundamental and technical setup for gold and silver…
However, in this first part, we’ll set the stage by digging into the macro forces at play in the economy, monetary policy, politics, and geopolitics.
Friday, January 03, 2020
Gold in 2019: Lessons for the Year Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
The King is dead, long live the King - 2019 is over, long live the 2020! As tumultuous as they have been, what have we learned about the gold market in the past twelve months? And what can we glean from this knowledge for the times ahead?
Key Lessons For Gold Investors from 2019
Today is the last day of 2019. It was a good year for the gold bulls, as one can clearly see in the chart below. The price of the yellow metal increased from $1279 to $1474 (as of December 18 – yes, we wrote this article before the festive break). It means that gold rose more than 15 percent in 2019. The gold bulls cannot complain!
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Sunday, December 29, 2019
The Ethics of a Gold Standard / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Antonius_Aquinas
The efficacy of a metallic monetary system is beyond dispute at least among real economists which eliminates just about 95% of whom are now engaged in the “profession.” Money, which gold is, allows for specialization, the division of labor, and provides the means for mankind to escape from barter and, thus, a primitive existence. Like free trade, money naturally integrates mankind both among and between peoples.
A system of central banking with an unbacked paper currency is the antithesis of a gold standard. Manipulation of currencies by central banks, mostly through debasement, hinders trade, creates distortions, and ultimately leads to the dreaded business cycle. Murray Rothbard aptly describes the baneful results of state intervention in the monetary system:
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Saturday, December 28, 2019
Trump Impeached in the House! Is It Time for Gold Now? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
Last week, the House voted to impeach Donald Trump. This is the third time in the U.S. history such an event has happened to the sitting President. What does it imply for the gold market?
Trump’s Impeachment, Explained
On Wednesday, the House of Representatives impeached Donald Trump. He became only the third U.S. president in history to be impeached, following Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1998.
According to the Constitution, the President “shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, a Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors”. Democrats created two articles of impeachments which refer to these other high crimes and misdemeanors. The first one accuses Trump of abusing his power by pressuring Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden, the former U.S. Vice President, in order to interfere in the 2020 presidential election.
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Saturday, December 28, 2019
Precious Metals Meandering Continues – So Please Maintain Patience / Companies / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
When the metals are in a bear market, metals enthusiasts are frustrated. And, even when the metals are in a bull market, metals enthusiast become frustrated. This is what I have been seeing of late, as the metals are consolidating for their next bullish run.
But, if you trade metals, you know that they actually spend much of their time consolidating. The reason is that their moves are so strong and powerful, they complete quite quickly, while spending the great majority of their time within a consolidation. And, that is what I think we are seeing now.
Yet, I don’t think we will see the bigger fireworks until 2020, and it may not even be until the 2nd quarter of 2020.
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Friday, December 27, 2019
Hi-yo Silver Away! / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Silver is expected to begin the next decade newly burnished, through a combination of higher industrial and investment demand, and tightened supply owing to mine production issues and output cuts.
As December winds down and precious metals trade volumes dwindle, market analysts including us at Ahead of the Herd are crunching the numbers from 2019 and looking ahead to what the New Year might bring.
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Tuesday, December 24, 2019
Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
What a classic day Friday was! Gold moved a bit lower, miners moved significantly lower, and silver rallied. Truly classic and outstanding performance if one enjoys seeing topping patterns that are playing out according to their usual and likely characteristics. And Monday’s early session seems to be an encore.
Let’s start with the examination of the most recent price action in gold.
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Monday, December 23, 2019
Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Richard_Mills
Mattress stuffers or bullion holders? Who fares better in a crisis? North American investors are divided between those who believe the decade-long stock market bull is going to keep running into the 2020s, and investors who, wary of something terrible happening, are hoarding cash and gold.
The hopeful and the fearful
The beacon hopeful investors are following is best symbolized by analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, who describe current market conditions as “primed for Q1 2020 net asset melt-up”, based on continued monetary easing (central bank asset purchases, low interest rates) and a pending resolution to the trade war. A first-round trade agreement between the US and China was reached last Friday.
While roughly two in three investors polled in October said they see the global economy getting worse in 2020, in November a little more than half think the economy will improve next year.
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Friday, December 20, 2019
Gold in Indian Rupees, the USD and the Many Non-USD Currencies / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
We started yesterday’s analysis with the investigation of the Euro Index and gold price in this European currency. Today, we’ll take a moment to analyze the gold market from the Indian point of view. Gold has a special place in the Indian history and culture, India is the second biggest “consumer” of gold (right after China). USA’s gold consumption is third biggest in the world, but it’s less than one fourth of the Indian gold consumption. This means that to a considerable extent, the Indian gold buyers can influence gold’s fundamental situation.
Moreover, India is the second-largest English-speaking country (US comes in first with 268 million English speakers, while about 125 million people speak English in India). Since we’re writing in English and about gold, it’s only natural to discuss the Indian side of the gold market. And by that, we mean taking a closer look at gold’s price in the Indian rupee.
In the recent years the value of the Indian currency has declined compared to the value of the U.S. dollar, and so did gold. This mean that if you live in India, you have yet another reason to be holding gold and one less reason to worry that gold is going to decline profoundly. Yet, the situation is not that simple. After all, the huge value increases in the USD Index translated into declines in gold that were even bigger. This means that from the non-USD point of view, for instance from the Indian point of view, gold price still declined. Where does that lead us to?
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Friday, December 20, 2019
Gold and Lagarde – Friends or Foes? / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
A week ago, Lagarde chaired the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB for the first time. An insightful press conference followed in the footsteps. What will her presidency imply for the ECB’s policy and the gold market precisely?
Key Takeaways From First Lagarde Monetary Policy Meeting as ECB President
Last Thursday, the ECB held its December monetary policy meeting. The central bank maintained its stance steady, keeping the interest rates unchanged. However, the ECB has revised slightly down the outlook for real GDP growth for 2020, while the outlook for HICP inflation went slightly up.
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Friday, December 20, 2019
Gold GLD Could Be On The Verge Of a Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Avi_Gilburt
With many stocks moving higher in breakout fashion already, silver and GLD have been lagging. But, that may come to an end shortly.
You see, silver seems to be setting up in a micro i-ii structure off the recent lows, whereas GLD is still below its last week high. However, even though GLD is below its last week high, the action we have seen lately has been quite corrective. So, this makes me lean towards an imminent break out more so than an imminent break down. But, we still need to see that follow through over last week’s high to confirm that.
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Friday, December 20, 2019
Understanding Gold (and Silver) Comes from the Heart, Not the Brain / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
The title of this essay is part of a statement made by Stewart Thomson, editor of the investment letter, Graceland Updates. His full comment reads, “It takes more than viewing charts and government debt numbers to understand gold as the world’s ultimate asset. What it really takes comes from the heart, not the brain.”
For thousands of years, humankind has understood the magical draw (and sense of security) that owning precious metal can bring.
It satisfies the core requirements that make it a medium of exchange par excellence.
It's durable. It's divisible. It's consistent. It's convenient. It's intrinsically valuable.
Friday, December 20, 2019
Gold, USD and the Euro: the Signs Ahead / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: P_Radomski_CFA
Brexit has become very likely due to result of the UK vote. But so what (gold- and currency-wise)? The uncertainty dropped significantly, and markets were able to sign a breath of relief (bearish for gold), but on the other hand Brexit itself increases the geopolitical turmoil (bullish for gold). Gold didn’t react decisively in the short run overall, but the European currencies: the euro, and the pound rallied. In the first part of today’s analysis, we’ll focus on what happened in the euro and how the forex situation fits the other gold price predictions.
Let’s start with the long-term chart featuring gold price in terms of the euro.
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Friday, December 20, 2019
Here’s the One Gold Chart to Watch / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Jordan_Roy_Byrne
In recent weeks we’ve noted the positive developments in the gold stocks despite the sector being in a period of correction.
Last week we shared the idea that the next impulsive move in gold stocks might begin when the correction in the metals ends.
In this article, I’m going to share the one chart which I think will help us time that next move higher.
In recent years I have repeatedly noted the importance of the Gold against the S&P 500 ratio chart. It is going to be challenging to see Gold make a considerable move higher without it outperforming the stock market.
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Thursday, December 19, 2019
Gold’s Appeal Now That Brexit Uncertainty and China Trade War for Global Economy Are Gone / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Arkadiusz_Sieron
China and the U.S. have reached a preliminary agreement, which softens their trade war, while the landslide victory of Conservative Party in the UK parliamentary elections clears the path to Brexit. Given that downside risks for the global economy are now significantly lower, how much do investors still need gold?
UK Parliamentary Elections and Gold
On Thursday, the British people voted in another snap parliamentary election (the third such since 2015) called by Boris Johnson in October due to increasing parliamentary deadlock over Brexit. The Conservative Party won a landslide victory. The Tories got 43,6 percent of votes which translated into 365 seats. It means a net gain of 48 seats since 2017 elections. As a result, the Johnson’s party won with a majority of 80 seats, the highest since 1987. The Scottish National Party also gained seats which can lead to the second referendum on Scotland’s independence in the future. In contrast, the Labor Party performed disastrously, losing 60 seats, which was their worst result in more than 80 years. Jeremy Corbyn, the party’s leader, has already said he will step down early next year.
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Tuesday, December 17, 2019
Weaponizing the Dollar; Gold Mining Stocks Chart Path to Breakout / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: MoneyMetals
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on inflation last Wednesday added fuel to the contra-dollar trade.
During a press conference following the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, Powell said, “In order to move rates up, I would want to see inflation that's persistent and that's significant. A significant move up in inflation that's also persistent...
"To move inflation expectations up from where they are, which appears to be a bit below 2%, will not happen overnight."
In other words, the Fed won’t be satisfied until consumer prices rise much higher over time.
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Sunday, December 15, 2019
Gold Stocks Vs Gold – Not A Good Bet / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: Kelsey_Williams
Earlier this year, various gold stock indices (XAU, HUI, GDX) gained more than fifty percent in just three months. Most of the negativity associated with the sector was brushed aside and replaced by positive expectations for the future.
Of course, the 90-day rush to this year’s highs did not occur in a vacuum. The price of gold rose by twenty percent over the same three-month period. The mining shares, however were considerably stronger.
Going back to the fall of 2018, the price of gold increased by thirty percent and gold mining shares increased by about sixty-five percent. The resulting differential of more than 2-to-1 in favor of the mining shares lends possible credence to the argument for shares over bullion.
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Sunday, December 15, 2019
Silver Price Remains in 'Corrective Downtrend' / Commodities / Gold & Silver 2019
By: The_Gold_Report
Technical analyst Clive Maund charts the longer term picture for silver.
Like gold, silver has been in a corrective downtrend following its peak early in September, and it looks like it has further to run before its done, partly of course because we have a downside target for gold in the $1360–$1400 area before it turns up.
On the 6-month month we can see how it has been stumbling lower within a downtrend and it looks like it will break down through the lower boundary of this downtrend to drop to a final downside target probably at support in the $15.30–$15.60 area. It outperformed gold during the summer run up and has underperformed on the subsequent reaction, which is normal, and as we know, silver is weaker than gold during the early stages of a bull market, so this near-term downside target seems reasonable.
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